October 28 2005

The recent major earthquake, which devastated Pakistan and some parts of India, rings another alarm bell for Nepal

By KESHAB POUDEL

Even as Nepal – which is already expecting a major earthquake any time - is in the most volatile sectors of the Himalayan seismic region, it is yet to prepare for the major earthquake that scientists say is already overdue.

When a country like Pakistan, a country with strong military capability and other infrastructures, faced such difficulties to begin rescue operation, any tremor over 8 richter scale in magnitude is definite to devastate Nepal, a country which is politically divided as well as less equipped.

According to estimation of Nepal Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET), there will be around 40,000 deaths in such earthquake that could cause the level of shaking as what happened in 1934 AD. In terms of injured people requiring hospitalization, there will be estimated 100,000 of them. In terms of damage to infrastructures, 90 percent of the water supply pipeline will become dysfunctional, electricity supply will reduce by 50 to 60 percent, bridges will be out of order and 60 percent of the buildings will be knocked down in the valley.

Scientific studies have already indicated that there are areas of potential sources of earthquakes in Nepal’s Himalayas. “There could earthquake in Nepal’s Himalayas. There could be earthquakes as big as 8.3 to 8.4 in Richter scale. A huge earthquake could strike our part of the world any time and any day,” predicted Amod Mani Dixit, general secretary of NSET.(See Spotlight January 14, 2005)

Lessons From Pakistan

Thanks to the vigorous efforts of Pakistani people, army and international community, the rescue operation in the earthquake devastated areas of Pakistan including many remote areas is in the last phase. Though rehabilitation and reconstruction phase has already begun, it is going to be one of the most challenging tasks as the winter is closing in.

Equipped with many facilities and capabilities of Pakistani Army, from initial days there were vigorous rescue operation. For Nepal –which has only a single international airport and about a dozen of helicopters, few hospitals, few heavy machines, the earthquake of over 7 richter in magnitude could mean total devastation.

According to reports, more than 50,000 people have already been killed with 74,134 injured in the recent Pakistani quake. The highest casualty was registered in the Pakistan side of Kashmir with 32,247 deaths and 50,122 injured. The Northwest Frontier Province recorded 16,555 deaths and over 74,134 injured. There are still 5900 people under treatment with 19,089 admitted to different hospitals.

As the winter is approaching, the rehabilitation works in quake devastated Himalayan region continue to gain speed. Rescue teams are facing problems in reaching the hills since the roads and bridges have collapsed.

According to the initial assessment of the United Nations, Pakistan requires US$ 549 million in aid. The international community has so far pledged about $150 million – less than one third of requirement. Nepal government has provided $ 50,000 as assistance to Pakistan.

Pakistan is also said to be facing the problem of air transport to carry the relief materials to the remote parts of the country as they require more helicopters. As NATO member and partner countries have already announced to provide air bridge to lift relief materials, people in rural parts of the country can expect to get the relief materials soon.

The earthquake also affected the Indian side of Kashmir with more than 1000 dead and huge losses in properties. Indian government is still providing the relief supplies to them.

Pakistani people have solidly stand behind for the cause of their country and military has also shown the capability to carry out major relief and rescue operation.