Caught Amid Conflict

For one of the poorest countries in the world caught in prolonged violent conflict, Nepal stands a dim chance of fully attaining the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in stipulated time. Despite these huge challenges, the progress made by Nepal in certain sectors like reducing poverty, increasing access to education and health has been remarkable as is suggested by the soon-to-be-released second progress assessment of MDGs. However, there is no need to be excited as these data were all based on survey done before 2003. And, it does not need Sherlock Holmes to deduce how the situation might have changed in the years since. In the absence of elected government and deepening conflict, the coming years could be worse for Nepalese. And this is bad news for millions of people in this Himalayan Kingdom because MDGs are basically concerned with their everyday problems – of getting enough food, of educating their children and of living a healthy and peaceful life. And MDGs are also closely linked with some of the causes that helped in exacerbating the situation of conflict like social disparity, exclusion and gender discrimination. Therefore, attaining MDGs is absolutely crucial for an LDC and conflict-torn country like Nepal

By SANJAYA DHAKAL

Sita Pariyar sells fruits in the streets of Lagankhel. A 35-year-old lady from Kavre – a neighboring district to the east of Kathmandu valley, Pariyar comes from Dalit community – the so-called class of untouchables. Life is hard for her. A mother of three kids, Pariyar works hard from dawn to dusk to support her husband and earn a meager livelihood.

Children : Uncertain future

Three years ago, Pariyar came to Kathmandu along with her husband and kids to escape the growing insecurity in her village. Her husband works in a garment factory – which itself is facing severe problem after Nepal’s exports dipped by over 40 percent since the termination of Multi Fiber Agreement (MFA) in January 2005 compelling dozens of garment factories to close down and rendering tens of thousands jobless.

Together the Pariyar-couple earn around US$ 50 a month – which is inadequate for them to send their kids to schools.

Kaili Basnet (name changed), 40, shares a similar story. A mother of two daughters, her husband was killed in conflict in Makwanpur district on the south of the Kathmandu valley three years ago. She earns her living by selling roasted corns in the streets of the capital city. Although she sends her daughters to a government school, she is finding it increasingly difficult to support their education given the rising costs and growing inflation (over 6 percent) triggered by a series of hikes in petroleum products.

It was to help improve the lives of people like Pariyar and Basnet that in 2000, the world leaders had unveiled MDGs. The millennium goals summarize the development targets hammered out at international conferences and world summits during the 1990s. In September 2000, world leaders distilled the key goals and targets in the Millennium Declaration. There are eight major goals and 18 time-bound numerical targets to be achieved over a 25-year period (1990-2015).

As the Heads of States and Governments meet this September in New York to review the progress of attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), they are definite to be confronted with manifold issues – like the continuation of the problems faced by Pariyar and Basnet.

With Nepal embroiled in a raging insurgency that shows no signs of waning, experts say the country could be thrown off the progress track. According to Country Assistance Strategy of the World Bank (2004-2007), there are over 300,000 people displaced from their native place due to conflict in Nepal . For these people, the situation of daily life has worsened instead of improving. As such, the government of Nepal faces uphill task in attaining the MDGs.

State of the Goals

Nepal has mixed - increasingly uncertain - chance of attaining the eight MDGs. The intensification of insurgency is more likely to shoot down the development targets than ever before.

However, based on the surveys conducted before 2003, the country is on a right direction to attain many of the basic goals like reduction of poverty, universal primary education, access to safe drinking water and reduction of child mortality even as it is faltering to meet other goals like promoting gender equality and empowerment of women, improvement of maternal health and combating HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other diseases. The eighth goal of developing a global partnership for development, too, does not look likely to be attained as the developed countries have not yet addressed the special needs of the Least Developed Countries like Nepal .

Rural people : Will MDGs be met ?

The National Planning Commission (NPC) and the UNDP are going to launch second assessment report of progress on MDGs within next two weeks. According to Dr. Shankar Sharma, vice chairperson of the NPC, the picture (shown by the assessment) at present is not so dismal but “the progress could be halted and even reversed if the conflict continues to intensify.”

According to Dr. Sharma, the number one goal of halving the level poverty (from 1990 to 2015) is attainable, particularly after the encouraging figures from the National Living Standard Survey II. The Survey conducted jointly with the World Bank showed that from 42% of people living below absolute poverty line (less than $1 a day) in 1995/96, the figure has come down to 31%. “We are well on our way to attain the MDG in this front,” said Dr. Sharma.

On the issue of universal access to primary education, the net enrolment ratio is on track at 84%. The ratio of children completing up to fifth grade has also increased to 60% from 38% in 1990. “This goal is also achievable,” said Dr. Sharma.

The goal of eliminating gender disparity in all levels of education by 2015 appears hard to achieve. The latest data show that the ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary level of education stands at 86.1% (up from 62% in 1990); 81.7% (up from 46.7% in 1990) and 35% respectively. The gender disparity, especially at tertiary level, is huge and hard to bridge by the stipulated time.

The fourth goal of reducing child mortality by two-thirds among children under five years of age, however, looks likely to be attained. From the Infant Mortality Rate of 102 (per 1000 births) in 1990, it has decreased to 61 now. The child mortality rate, too, has decreased from 162 to 82 during the period. The proportion of 1-year-old kids immunized against measles has increased remarkably from 42 to 85% in the same period. “We are even ahead in this goal,” Dr. Sharma said.

The fifth goal of reducing by three-quarters the maternal mortality ratio is another weak point. In fact, the government has not even been able to conduct a survey to assess progress in this goal. “We require a large sample size for this survey. And new survey has not been done since 1996,” said Dr. Sharma, adding that the MMR in 1990 was 850 per 100,000 live births – one of the highest in the world. He said that latest estimations suggest it might have come down to 415. The goal of bringing this down to 213 by 2015 is going to be difficult job, concede officials. The raging conflict in the rural hinterlands have not helped the cause either.

The sixth goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other major diseases is also going to become a tall order. The incident of HIV prevalence has, instead, been growing from 0.29 percent of total population in 2000 to 0.5 percent in 2005. The incidences of malaria are decreasing but cases of drug-resistant malaria have also been emerging in recent years.

On the seventh goal, in 1996, there were 61 percent people who had access to safe drinking water, which increased to over 70 percent in 2005. It has to touch 80 percent mark by 2015. Likewise, the area under forest cover is 29% and the area reserved for conservation of biological diversity has increased by three-fold from 1990 to reach 28,587 square kms.

The eighth goal is largely associated with the help that will be extended by developing and developed countries to open up global partnership by promoting trading and financial assistance. “Here we need to witness a lot more support from the developed countries,” Dr. Sharma added. He called for tripling of aid by the developed countries, debt relief and keeping of the promises made by developed countries to increase their ODA to 0.7% of GNP by 2015.

 

Last week, releasing the UNDP/UNESCAP Report on the attainment of MDGs by LDCs of Asia and the Pacific, Ghulam Isaczai, deputy resident representative of UNDP to Nepal, said, “Nepal is on track only on 3 of the 11 targets measured in the report; these are infant mortality, under five mortality and proportion of population with access to improved water sources in rural areas. On other targets, Nepal is either going on a slow pace of achievement or completely under-performing. While poverty in Nepal has reduced by 11 percent in the last 8 years, inequality has widened among various segment of the population. This indicates that development outcomes have still not reached the most vulnerable groups – such as the Tamangs with a poverty incidence of over 50%; the Dalits 46%; the Hill Janajatis 43% and the Muslims 41%.”

Impact of Conflict

Even in the goals that Nepal looks likely to attain by 2015, the coming few years are going to be absolutely critical. In the last two years, the political conflict coupled with armed insurgency has practically thrown the government’s development targets off the track. If the situation persists, there is no way Nepal is going to attain those MDGs.

The reduction in poverty has been remarkable. “But this is at risk due to stagnant economic growth,” said Dr. Sharma. Nepal ’s growth for the fiscal year 2004/05 was just around 3 percent. It was due to the contribution made by remittances sent by Nepalese workers from overseas that the reduction in poverty was made possible. The workers send nearly US$ 1 billion a year.

“Till now there has been no setbacks in health and education sector as such. But the conflict has definitely slowed our progress,” added Dr. Sharma.

Indicating the likely impact of conflict on MDGs, UN Resident Coordinator Matthew Kahane had said a few months ago “the progress was falling in many areas of MDGs due to the conflict.”

In July this year, the Netherlands Development Organization (SNV/Nepal), the UN system in Nepal and International Alert had organized a regional workshop on strategies to attain MDGS in violent conflict. The workshop called on the authorities and concerned stakeholders to “retain adaptability and flexibility” and become “inclusive and participatory” to succeed in times of conflict. The workshop concluded that attainment of MDGs could also address root cause of conflict.

In case of Nepal , failure to attain goals like gender disparity could unravel the progress in other fronts. “The issue of gender is cross-cutting and can impact on other goals as well. In fact, it is necessary not only to make MDGs gender sensitive but also link them with CEDAW, ICPD and Beijing Platform for Action,” said Bandana Rana, president of Sancharika Samuha, and a leading civil society representative engaged in raising awareness about MDGs and gender equality.

Resource Gap

Apart from growing conflict, another factor that could derail Nepal ’s MDG attainment plans is the huge resource gap the country faces. A study has shown that the government is short of Rs 500 billion (around US$ 5 billion as $1 is equal to Rs 70) of resources to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) within 2015.

In order to work for the attainment of MDGs in six major areas, the investment worth Rs 1130.44 billion has to be pumped in between 2005 and 2015. Out of which, the government’s contribution would require to be around Rs 866.98 billion and it will face the shortage of Rs 494 billion.

“If the internal conflict continues and government expenditure is further affected, this imbalance could further increase,” Bal Gopal Baidya, leader of the team that conducted the study on need assessment for MDGs, had said a few months ago releasing the study report.

The study covered goals in areas like hunger/poverty, education, health, drinking water and sanitation and rural infrastructure (transport and electrification). As per the study, there is a shortfall of budget by 35 percent in the area of hunger/poverty; 24 percent shortfall in education; 15 percent shortfall in health; and 13 percent each in drinking water and sanitation and rural infrastructure.

The study has also pointed that the government investment made in these sectors this year are also well below the requirement. It has pointed that the budget this year was only 48 percent of the requirement in hunger/poverty; only 47 percent of the requirement in rural infrastructure; and only 51 percent in drinking water and sanitation. “Most government investment is required in education followed by hunger/poverty and health,” said Baidya.

As Nepal stands in the crossroads, it would need all the help it can to attain the MDGs. But setting its own house in order is going to be the number one challenge in the days ahead.