INTERNATIONAL

SAARC's prospects for 2010: an European perspective

--Dick Gupwell, EU expert

SAARC is a relatively unknown in Europe (less well known than ASEAN). SAARC's progress up to the early 1990's was hardly noticed (except for Report drawn up in the European Parliament in the later 1980's). However, the success of the Male and Colombo Summits and the prospects of a move from
the South Asia preferential Trade area (SAPTA) to a Free Trade Area (SAFTA) raised considerable interest. To this has been the adventurous report of the Eminent Persons Group (EPG).

However, the general attitude of most Europeans (ordinary folk as well as decision-makers) towards South Asian based mainly on their perception of the long dispute between India and Pakistan, especially over Kashmir. This is seen as an intractable problem in Europe, and India and Pakistan are thought to be playing and eternal diplomatic game to score points off each other in the face of international opinion. However, international opinion has become increasingly bored and frustrated by this posturing, which is seen as hampering both progress towards regional cooperation and, related to this, the economic development of the sub-continent. At this time of the setting up to ASEM (the Asia-Europe Summit Meeting), it was openly said that to include the South Asian countries in this process would open these meetings to the risk of Pakistan and India using the occasions for the futile raising of the Kashmir issue yet again.

In 1998, there was general indigestion over the tit-for-tat nuclear tests by these South Asian rivals, although this was fairly short-lived. This was followed by the optimism over the Lahore declaration and it was felt that the useful cooperation, which had been established earlier between Prime Minster I.K. Gujral and Nawaz Sharif, might now be resumed between Mr. Vajpayee and Mr. Sharif. Instead, there was the Kargil episode, which raised the prospects of a nuclear confrontation in South Asia. Pakistan was seen to be the aggressor in this affair, while India was seen to be acting with great restraint. Then came the military coup in Pakistan and Pakistan's democratic credentials, so important for the Europeans, were swept away yet again. General Zia-Ul-Haq had been an unpopular figure in Europe. Against this, India held largely peaceful democratic elections at about the same time. Moreover, the prospects of a prolonged period of stable government in India, linked to good growth rates, increasing liberalization and progress in the high-tech sector (such as Andra Pradesh), increasingly help to
portray India as an attractive partner for economic cooperation and investment. On the other hand, Pakistan's economy is seen to be in a mess. As regards the other South Asian countries, they are seen as minor players. Sri Lanka is an interesting prospect economically but is beset with the long running ethnic conflict. As for the others (Bangladesh, Nepal, the Maldives and Bhutan), they are
viewed as cases more for development aid than real economic partnership. Meanwhile, the latest SAARC Summit has been postponed at India 's request over Pakistan's military coup.

Thus, an European may be forgiven for seeing the future development of South Asian regional Cooperation largely in terms of how the relationship between India and Pakistan will develop.

As this is a paper based mainly on speculation, I shall now present two scenarios of how this relationship might develop, one bad, the other good.

The bad scenario begins with General Musharaff having Mr. Sharif executed for his alleged crimes, possibly along with several "co-conspirators". He tries to establish a form of local democracy but the experiment fails and he gives up on the idea. Instead, his rule becomes increasingly autocratic and his administration more and more unpopular. As dissent increases, more people are put into prison. General Musharraf then falls out with the IMF who suspends further payments. Unable to pay this way, after the initial funds from the anti-corruption drive has petered out, with no fat defaulters left to "NAB", he turns increasingly to his backers among rich Arab Oil States to bail him out. At the same time, he sets up the infiltration of Afghan and Arab Mujahidden into Indian Kashmir, leading to a complete standoff with India. SAARC becomes paralyzed as a result. Instead of a progress within SAARC,
along the lines proposed by the EPG, adhoc arrangements continue, based essentially on bilateral, trilateral or multilateral projects involving India and the other SAARC countries but excluding Pakistan. SAARC continues in existence but, to all intents and purposes, without Pakistan's participation, and
its growth is stunted. General Musharraf is still holding on to power in 2010 but is vilified both at home and abroad.

Then, there is the good scenario. This begins with General Musharraf pardoning Mr. Sharif for his sins, possibly after short stint behind bars and with the former Prime Minister being banned from holding further public office for a prolonged period. It is felt that it is enough for Mr. Sharif to be publicly shamed for his excessive corruption to remove his as a future political threat. District elections are held in 2000 and Districts Councils, with important developed powers, are successfully setup. Provincial elections follow in 2001 or 2002. National elections are scheduled in 2005. The common wealth then drops Pakistan's suspension. Improving relations with the IMF lead to Pakistan's economy turning the corner with modest growth and rising investment. General Musharraf introduces wide-ranging tax reforms, bringing rich landlords and businesses within the tax net and thereby reaching the World Bank's revenue to GDP ratio target by 20%. Big advances are quickly seen in health and literacy, working through the local councils. In the foreign relations, General Musharraf reduces Pakistan's links with the Taleban. He reaches comprehensive discussions other than the future of Kashmir. This leads to the conclusion of an Indo-Pakistan Treaty on Kashmir, which declares Jammu and Kashmir a joint Indo-Pakistani con-dominion (this, in effect, is what it has been for the last half century) and leads to a military de-escalation and the formation of a joint local administration elected from parts of Kashmir, Jammu, Ladakh and the Northern Areas, but under joint Indian and Pakistani sovereignty. India, and Pakistan, with both SAARC and international support, also set up a joint fund for the development of Jammu and Kashmir's economy. At the same time, India and Pakistan agree to a phased and comprehensive opening up to their joint frontier for trade and travel. Other confidence building measures are introduced. General Musharraf then steps down after a new civilian administration is elected after fresh elections to the National assembly in about 2005. General Musharraf retires as a hero of the nation and is admired both in SAARC and beyond.

Meanwhile, the timetable for the introduction if SAFTA is respected and intra-SAARC trade begins to grow rapid. Encouraged by this, the SAARC governments agree to press ahead with the move to the formation of a customs union by 2010. Substantial progress is also made in a number of other fields, such as the development of common energy and transport projects. The World Bank and the ADB become increasingly involved in supporting these projects. SAARC people-to-people contacts increase rapidly with trade, scientific and educational cooperation and cross-border tourism. The involvement of SAARC-wide civil society groups in the work of SAARC progress strongly. With the restoration of democracy on Pakistan, the improvement of democratic norms in Bhutan and Maldives, and the holding of normal elections everywhere, the SAARC country agree to enshrine the principle of democracy by transforming the Speakers and Parliamentarian association into genuine SAARC Parliamentary Assembly, having first commissioned CASAC to make a thorough study of all the parliamentary systems existing in other regional groupings. The SAARC Secretariat in Katmandu is also substantially expanded and given more extensive powers and responsibilities in keeping with the need to administrator a free trade area and prepare for a customs union. The new SAARC Assembly will push the SAARC Council to accelerate the process of cooperation. The SAARC governments also take
steps to adopt regular joint positions in international for and setup committees of SAARC ambassadors in countries overseas.
( Paper read by the author at a Kathmandu CASAC seminar held this month-chief editor).

Red wine: a medicine of the future

-Annik Bianchini, France

 Recent scientific studies have shown that a French diet, rich in saturated fats could be beneficial for the heart and for the blood vessels.

A lot of criticism has been made of fats, to such an extent that, for many people, they have become a scapegoat and a number one enemy of health. However, we need fat to lead healthy lives. Fats are the main sources of energy for the body. They also play a fundamental part in the development and maintenance of the integrity of cell membranes. Moreover, they are the only elements to give us vitamins A, D, E and K and essential fatty acids. Without fats, life would be insipid as they largely contribute to the taste in food and give it its identity. On the occasion of a recent survey, carried out by the SOFRES organization for the French Research and Information Center on Nutrition-CERIN-, involving 696 subjects aged 25-60 and 192 general practitioners, a certain number of preconceived ideas were revised. Thus, a large number of the people questioned consider that, when you start to age, you should eliminate various things from your diet, such as salt, bread and butter. People also believe that some forms of oil are lighter than others and that butter has more calories and more fat that margarine etc. However, figures prove that, in 100 grams of oil there are nearly 100 grams of lipids, whatever the types of oil (olive, sunflower, peanut, Soya or rapeseed) and that in 100 grams of margarine, there are as many lipids as in 100 grams of butter (82 grams).

Using the right fats at right time: "What is important is to vary the fats as they have different and complementary components. So do not go without your buttered bread in the morning. It would be a bad reflex", Dr. Jean-Marie Bourre, a nutritionist and research director at the French Institute of Health and Medical Research-INSERM-, declares. "You should, above all, use the right fats at the right time and in a reasonable amount". The study carried out for the CERIN also shows that 9 people out of 10, without any history of any coronary disease and with a normal blood cholesterol level, limit the amount of cholesterol rich food that they eat. "Yet there is no reason to ban cholesterol from the diet of a healthy subject," Dr. Bourre explains. "Cholesterol is indispensable for life. Without cholesterol there is no vitamin D and there are no bile salts. Without cholesterol, there are no hormones and there is no sex".

A "French diet", which is a successful variation of the Mediterranean diet, is that of a country where people eat well, where people do not deliberately avoid fats, where certain foods are not eliminated, where people are not obsessed with food safety and where people enjoy drinking. It is also a way of eating based on conviviality, pleasure and flavor, firmly structured around the three daily meals. The "Mediterranean model" is characterised by regularly eating vegetables, salads, cereals and dried vegetables, sea fish, dairy products and olive oil. Various epidemiological studies have shown that this diet has a favorable effect on the heart, the vessels and life expectancy. The inhabitants of the Gers region, in the south-west of France, who eat foi gras and, what is more, use goose and duck fat, consume an equivalent of olive oil, as the geese and ducks eat maize that is solidified corn oil whose composition is very close to that of the olive oil. In fact, these products are practically the same, except that they have different gastronomic connotations. "The secret which, in fact, is not a secret at all, "Dr. Bourre goes on," is, at every age, to eat a little of everything, in a balanced way, and to use healthy traditional food".

Red wine: a medicine of the future: The effectiveness of a "French diet" in preventing cardiovascular disease has not been completely elucidated. Its content in antioxidant vitamins-vitamins C and E, beta-carotene etc) and fibers, but also in Omega 3 fatty acids-wild fatty fish- and oils-olive and peanut oil- is rightly put forward as each of these components plays an important part in it. According to a team of Californian scientists, the polyphenols in red wine would explain the famous "French paradox" according to which rench people suffer less from coronary diseases than Americans in spite of eating food that is just as fatty. Thus, in Toulouse, the combination of high consumption of wine with a low death rate from heart disease may appear surprising and even paradoxical. As Alcohol itself does not seen to have any protective power, the antioxidant properties of wine would seem to lie in its non-alcoholic part that contains phenols. Whether, that be the case or not, although regularly drinking a glass or two of wine a day-specially red- seems to protect a healthy subject against cardiovascular disease, the food accompanying the wine may also be a contributing factor. According to the latest information from the World Health Organization, France seems to rank better, in terms of death from cardiovascular disease, than Greece, Portugal and Spain, which also have a Mediterranean diet.

"France is doing well with its diet," Dr. Bourre concludes. "It is urgent not to change anything in it".

Communists top in Russian polls

Kathmandu :Dec 19: The Communist Party took top spot in Russian general elections on Sunday but a pro-Kremlin bloc stormed into second place, dealing a crushing blow to Presidential Boris Yeltsin's main political opponents report agencies. The Communist Party secured 28 per cent of the vote in elections to the State Duma lower house of parliament, with the two-month-old Unity bloc in second place on 24 per cent, according to an exit poll broadcast by NTV television.

The humiliation of the anti-Kremlin Fatherland-All Russia (OVR) bloc led by Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov and ex-premier Yevgeny Primakov was underscored by its failure to beat a rightist coalition led by the country's most unpopular liberal economic reformers. The Union of Rightist Forces (SPS) formed in the middle of this year tied with OVR on 11 per cent, according to the exit poll, agencies have reported.

If confirmed by the official results, the election would mark the political birth of an SPS faction led by Sergei Kiriyenko, another former premier. His party pushed the more established liberal Yabloko bloc into fifth place with eight per cent of the vote, according to the NTV poll.

A gleeful Kiriyenko basked in the performance of his party, which analysts said ran the most professional campaign during the election.

"I think this is a tremendous victory," he told NTV. "Two months ago no one gave us more than two per cent. People were wondering whether we would ever make it into the Duma."

The ultranationalist Zhirinovsky bloc was the only other party to meet the five per cent threshold to win representation in the party list half of the State Duma vote, said the NTV poll, conducted by the Institute of Comparative Social Investigations (TsESSI) at 115 voter stations.

Around 55 per cent of Russia's 107 million voters took part in Sunday's election, the third in post-Soviet Russia, the head of the country's Central Election Commission Alexander Veshnyakov said, the
Interfax news agency reported. The 68-year-old Yeltsin grinned as he wished for a new friendly Duma after casting his vote.

"Russia needs a Duma that will pass laws and not one which engages in political manoeuvring," said Yeltsin. "I hope that the next Duma will be a good parliament."

The Kremlin chief fought furiously with the old parliament and on several occasions threatened to shut it down for failing to cooperate over budgets and even trying to impeach him.

Communist Party chief Gennady Zyuganov had also expressed confidence as he cast his ballot at central Moscow's Pioneer Palace, saying: "Everything will be fine."