In depth Analysis

Koirala to be pressured till Pokhara meet

Kathmandu: Predictably Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala returned from his India trip empty-handed. He has merely committee(s) and assurances to show. Girija babu had himself asked his Nepali audience not to expect too much from his agenda-free good-will visit. But the congress media hype itself had demanded expectations which others were saying were not in tune with the reality. As the joint communiqué and Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Bajpayee’s official interview in course of the trip show the Prime Minister has returned with promises of Indian good will. Whatever else has transpired has not come in black and white.

It is this that is likely to draw ire in Nepal. Already rumors are that the Prime Minister is losing or has lost his majority in his own parliamentary party. Whether this is yet another attempt at bargain by Water Resources Minister Khum Bahadur Khadka remains to be seen. But opposition leader Madhav Nepal has already expressed his good wishes to former Prime Minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai whose public announcement that he will be Prime Minister once more drew quite some attention recently.. Also grumbling in the congress of unfulfilled promises and high handedness by the Girija kitchen cabinet do not send sound signals for Girija babu.

The fact of the matter is that the congress general convention approaches and the Girija competition must make its presence felt in preparation for the competition for party leadership. If Girija babu has his way he will sweep aside his detractors at the Pokhara convention and he has his official clout and resources to do so.

Unless consensus emerges in the congress parliamentary party to sweep him aside, Girija babu’s presence at the congress apex may now be taken for granted. Perhaps the significance of the Delhi pilgrimage lies here.

It is for this reason that his return from the trip is timed with greater opposition within the congress helped along also by UML activities that must take this opposition party to the streets very soon. For the UML, the citizenship issue has become very handy to do so. As the budget session of the parliament winds up, Girija babu is likely to be pressured more until the magic convention moth where the actual showdown will occur.

Coolness to continue in Nepal-India ties
Nepali problems remain intact

Kathmandu: The intelligent and astute Indian leaders and their diplomats once again gave attractive toys as usual to the Nepalese leaders and the accompanying Shital Nivas all time no-home work officials to play till it continued to entertain them.

It was apparently agreed this time again that the other side would continue to supply such toys as and when the demand came from the Nepalese side.

What ever the Prime minister says to his audience here in praise of his Delhi pilgrimage, what is sure is that the South Block not only took the Nepalese matters lightly but instead also warned Nepal not to "politicize" petty bilateral matters.

A cursory glance at the joint communiqué issued at the conclusion of Prime minister Koirala’s Delhi visit only reveals the stark truth that India has seduced Nepal on every aspect of the issues which Nepal dared to put in front of the Indian leaders for their correction.

Be it the 1950 treaty issue, the Kalapani matters or the Laxampur dam episode or even the Bhutanese refugee case, India very cleverly dumped all these burning issues to the committees to be taken care of

by the officials of various ministries at different levels.

Surprising of it all was the total neglect of India regarding Nepal’s wish to have her good offices in sorting out the overly stretched Bhutanese refugee issue. However, the Nepali Prime minister says he talked about this issue on "security" lines. Indeed, Koirala has a point here, which would sooner or later bring in Indian mediation, as India is such a country who would not compromise her security interests from any quarters.

To recall, only recently the Nepali police confiscated a "pistol" from a refugee near the Nepal-India border close to which India has a "restricted military zone Bagdogra". One fine morning, Nepali police will capture AK47 rifles, which would definitely be used either in the Nepalese side or across the border. Add to this the ULFA and the BODO militants who have been creating havoc in the area adjoining Assam, Nagaland and even in Siliguri. On top of all these happenings, the talks that Bhutanese monarch recently had a private tea-coffee session with some of these militants right inside his territories. All put together, one fine morning India will be forced to heed to Nepal’s sincere requests.

Regarding the 1950 treaty issue for which Nepal had already presented a non-paper tentatively expecting the fresh treaty to go on those lines was summarily rejected by the other side stating that " a review of the total five decades of our bilateral ties" would be done within six months of time.

In essence, India wishes the 1950 treaty to continue till the civilization exists for it is this treaty and some of its controversial clauses which allows India to gag Nepal as and when it suits her.

By asking six months to look in to the 1950 treaty matters by the foreign secretaries of the two countries, India again has demonstrated that she only wishes to buy time and lure the Nepalese leaders in the illusion that some thing was forthcoming.

Similarly on the case of Laxampur dam and the inundation that caused havoc in the adjoining Nepalese villages, the Indian side "assured that measures were being taken to ensure that the flood control enbankment constructed in the Indian side would not cause inundation in the adjoining regions of Nepal and that the situation in this regard would be monitored jointly and necessary action taken". However, the fact is that the communiqué should have spoken of compensation to the villagers who felt the brunt of that Indian scheme.

Regarding the DPR of the Mahakali, the two sides agreed to shift the "unresolved issues pertaining to the DPR would be addressed by the joint committee on water resources".

On the question of the border encroachment by the other side, the communiqué has again stated that "the two prime ministers reviewed the progress in the work of the joint technical level boundary committee and directed the committee to complete its field work by 2001-2002 and final preparation of strip maps by 2003".

This means that the encroachments will continue for three more years before it comes to a settlement. However, there is no guarantee that the lands encroached would be given back.

Whatever, the government controlled media claims of Koirala’s visit to Delhi, the fact is that most of the entourage members spent their Delhi sojourn sleeping in their five star complexes. Media reports have it that foreign minister Bastola exceeded his functions and was found hob-nobbing with his former Indian friends in a manner not befitting to a nation’s foreign minister.

The biggest gain for India this time has been that henceforth Nepalese intelligence agencies will have to work in tandem with their Indian counterparts to control the activities of what India calls "elements inimical to India’s security interests" from the Nepalese soil. India received this substantial gain without reciprocating any thing to Nepal. Bajpayee doctrine perhaps. This doctrine will perhaps be tested in other South Asian neighbors as well time permitting.

The Nepali gain has been that the Indian leaders, as traditional and time immemorial friends, listened to Nepali problems for the first time. No minor gain indeed for Koirala and the nation.

Telegraph adds: India loosed a great opportunity this time by not exhibiting her sincerity and magnanimity towards Nepal. Had she been able to satisfy Nepal on any of her pressing issues, the people here would have reciprocated in a different manner. A cool relation appears to continue despite Koirala’s private claim made otherwise.

Prachanda’s abrupt ‘no’ to talks; frightening days ahead

Kathmandu: How Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala will brave the grand design all aimed against his chair will perhaps determine his political acumen say independent observers.

The fierce internal rivalry apart which at the moment is attached with the threats of a no-confidence move against his leadership in government that is emanating from his own party parliamentarians, a new awkward situation is all set to grip Prime minister Koirala.

The sudden decision of the Maoists’ leaders to summarily keep the supposed talks with the government on a hold sine die has surprised many a brains in Nepal and more so should have jolted the congressmen close to Koirala quarters.

The Maoists have spoken their minds through a recently issued press statement which point blank says that the "talks with the government" cannot be initiated at the moment when the Koirala led government continued to unleash a sort of terror in Bara district and has kept in total darkness of the whereabouts of their frontline leaders such as Matrika Yadav, Chitra Narayan Shrestha and so many others.

The press release signed by PRACHANDA-the GS of the Maoists party, however, admits that they had received a formal "letter" signed by Sher Bahadur Deuba for talks but , says Prachanda, due to the intransigence attitude exhibited by the establishment towards his party men and leaders the talks at this juncture could not materialize.

Prachanda also says in the release that they had wished to go in for negotiations with the government considering the positive overtures exhibited by Deuba and other Human Rights activists and organizations.

However, on the contrary the government could not even honor the minimum conditions set by the above said institutions for initiating the suspended talks with them, says Prachanda, alleging "instead the Koirala government pleaded for Indian support to quell the issue of the Nepalese during his recent trip there.

To recall, only last month the two home secretaries of Nepal and India apparently agreed in Dhulikhel resort hotel to work in unison to "combat terrorism and cross border terrorism" which has got its reflection in the fresh joint communiqué issued upon the Koirala Delhi visit.

To add to this, a month back talking to one Hindi tabloid-PANCHJANYA- India’s foreign minister Jaswant Singh is on record to have said, "whatever helps Nepal needs for the eradication of the ISI and the Maoists’ insurgency, we are ready to offer that".

Be that as it may, the abrupt cancellation of the proposed talks with the Maoists under the aegis of Deuba and the reasons forwarded by the Maoists in this regard and considering the Indian foreign minister’s blunt admission mentioned above, all put together bring a sad conclusion: trouble of greater dimensions will follow soon in this otherwise peaceful land.

Interesting as it might appear, prior to the cancellation of the government-Maoists talks, one leading top hat of the movement, Dr. Baburam Bhattarai reportedly met in the recent days with Sher Bahadur Deuba and the two had a long discussion. However, neither side has confirmed this meeting.

This notwithstanding, there is a ray of light still hanging in Nepal’s troubled sky and that being Prachanda’s assertion that talks could be still possible if the government complies to their minimum demands.

Will Koirala heed to his detractors’ demand?

Kathmandu: Suddenly the congress parliamentarians have become restive. They demand a summary change in the party’s governing structure and wish that of the two top most posts in the party: the Prime Ministership and the party presidency be allocated to different personalities.

To recall, this particular demand is nothing new for the party. However, when ever this demand came for its final implementation the powers that be in the congress summarily rejected for obvious reasons.

This notwithstanding, forwarding the same demand which says: one man; one post, a quite sizeable number of congress parliamentarians have come to the open and been pressing Prime minister Koirala to chose one post either that of the Prime minister or of the party presidency.

The justification forwarded by the men adhering to this theory of one man; one post claim that if this stance is brought in to effect will have profound positive impact on the functioning of both the institutions that is the government and the ruling party.

"Since both the posts have been captured by Koirala, neither the government nor the party is functioning in a manner as it should have been", complained a congressite who sticks to one post theory.

However, the Koiralaites have different assumption in this regard. They say it becomes easy for the man controlling both the posts to look and manage the affairs in a most impartial manner.

Koirala’s detractors, however, summarily disagree to this proposition because they feel that it is the ploy of the Koirala and his men to control the party and government so that they could suppress the dissenting voices aimed against them.

Be that as it may, looking at the arithmetical preparation this round the theorists of one man; one post have made to press Koirala to the hilt hint at the fact that Koirala will be left with no options other than to select one post of his liking and facilitate way for the second generation leaders to get hold of the other post.

In essence, say independent observers, this demand has been made to weaken Koirala from within so that he can not maneuver any more the impending congress convention in his or in his relatives’ favor.

The internal assumption is that if Koirala is allowed to continue till Pokhara meet of the congress with both the powerful posts which he enjoys at the moment might strengthen Koirala’s maneuvering capabilities for both the posts allow him power and resource which is considered to be very important in Nepali politics.

"The idea is to force Koirala to accept one post of his liking and nothing more than that", said a congress lawmaker who has put his signature for the ouster of Koirala.

Minister Khum Bahadur Khadka, Bijaya Kumar Gachhedar, Bal Bahadur K.C. Chiranjibi Wagle and Purna Bahadur Khadka are the few good names who are hell bent upon destabilizing Koirala and his entire set up. One better name has been added in the lot of Koirala detractors-former minister Aftab Alam.

Alam’s summary ouster from the cabinet has not only annoyed him but he has been saying that Koirala can never protect his own party men if they were in trouble.

Reports have it that a group of disgruntled congress lawmakers went to see the Prime minister upon his return from Delhi where in Minister Khadka forcefully told Koirala that he select one post of his liking or else his group will be forced to look in to other options.

While this is evident that congress is undergoing through a difficult period, however, equally important is the fact that how long the congressmen can resist the temptation of becoming a minister in Koirala’s cabinet that is awaiting a minor reshuffle. Will not the inclusion of some of the members of the congress parliamentarians in to the cabinet damage the whole prospects of minister Khadka whose sole aim apparently is torturing Koirala. The crux of the matter is minister Khadka had been denied home ministry and the DPM post at time of the last cabinet formation. Going a bit more far, what would happen to Khadka’s design if Koirala elevates his rank to the DPM in the impending reshuffle?

The million-dollar question is Will Koirala listen to one man; one post theory? Or how he will react to these clandestine overtures aimed against his two chairs, one in Kalimati and the other being in Singh Durbar?

In the meanwhile, Saint leader Bhattarai too has apparently hinted that Koirala should adhere to the theory of one man, one post or else the situation could go against him. Is it that Bhattarai is the real strength of Koirala’s detractors? Who knows?

Workshop on gender equity

Kathmandu: The Mainstream Gender Equity Program, an official affiliate of the HMG/N ministry of women and social welfare, is organizing a workshop this Friday morning on the theme of " Discrimination of women and the convention related to the abolition of such discrimination, CEDAW.

SANCHARIKA Samuh, a communicator’s forum initiated by responsible women journalists, is efficiently coordinating the workshop. The workshop will also be supported by the UNDP, Kathmandu office.

Nepal is already a signatory to the CEDAW.

The workshop has been designed to let the local media persons know of the CEDAW which solely aims at institutionalizing the genuine gender equity rights of the women folks in the country.

The workshop is expected to raise awareness among the media men regarding the discriminating practices still being practiced in Nepal against the rural women.

The organizers of this seminar hope to compile the suggestions from the participants that will presumably guide the future implementation of the CEDAW and the provisions contained therein in the Nepalese context.

Nothing to panic clarifies Himal cement

Kathmandu: Contrary to the reports that have appeared in a section of Nepalese media, the state owned Himal Cement Factory is currently under its mandatory annual maintenance phase and hence the factory has been closed for some time.

In a telephonic conversation with this scribe Tuesday morning, the newly appointed general manager of the factory, Subhash Pokhrel, told that there is nothing to panic from the misinformation created by some media men as the factory would resume its production immediately after the process of regular maintenance gets completed.

To recall, the factory only recently awarded bonus to its workers for having exceeded the monthly target of their cement production. The factory exceeded its own monthly production target by some twenty thousand sacks of cement. Insiders in the factory claim that after a span of well over four years or so, the factory has taken an upward trend in terms of production.

Any negative comment made by the media against the factory is thus prejudicial, commented a factory worker.

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