Chaotic days ahead!

The dramatic finale of the ultimatum served by Maoists’ supremo Comrade Prachanda last week in the name of the government to divulge the whereabouts of his missing party men came in a fashion that has been summarily deplored by responsible men belonging to all possible strata. The "insulting" trick, as is being called by a vast section of the Nepali society, evidently used by the Koirala government to malign the insurgency among the common men has backfired to the extent that most of the newspapers have deplored the move of the government. This however, does not apply to a section of the media who are considered to be "relatives" of the government who have point blank supported the government’s initiative for obvious reasons. The loyalty that is a paid one does not last long.

The government under Koirala deserves praise to the extent that it initiated the peace process through dialogues with the Maoists. The establishment also must be congratulated for establishing a close rapport with the leaders of the insurgency through the use of some accredited mediators. Moreover, the government’s apparently good intention of freeing one of the top ranking leader of the insurgency Dinesh Sharma as demanded by Maoists prior to holding more comprehensive talks, all put together gives one the impression that up to this step the establishment exhibited or posed to exhibit good intention regarding the talks. However, the last minute notoriety of the Koirala regime which summarily decided to force the two "missing" leaders of the Maoists’ movement to face the camera and denounce their own party perhaps has turned the negotiation table up side down. Indications to this effect have started trickling in from both the warring rivals through their fresh statements. The threat loaded statements coming as it does from the Maoists and the governments’ camp all bode ill for the nation whose effects perhaps would soon be visible in some way or the other.

The childish nature exhibited and concurrently the method used by the Koirala regime in exposing the front rank members of the insurgency while freeing them was simply wrong. For the visual portrayed in the government controlled television and the nervousness seen in the face of Dinesh Sharma could easily explain the mental agony through which the Maoists leader was undergoing at the moment of meeting the press men close to the government. The tele-drama staged by the government last Friday also amply hinted that it was a hurriedly summoned press meet with sole intentions to weaken the insurgency from within and malign it among the national population. As expected the freed insurgents took to their heels the moment they were freed (?) and apparently joined their former ranks in the party which was only but natural. The whole sponsored television drama appeared that the two Maoists’ leaders were forced to speak under duress and coercion to which they complied as per the dictation of the government presumably.

The freeing of the two leaders by the regime is also held under suspect. There is a sensible quarter which suspects that the government might have "arrested" the two freed men again as the Maoists high command is yet to spell out that their men have already come to the party fold. In essence, in such circumstances the regime seeks the supports of the Red Cross or even that of the HR organizations. However, this was deliberately rejected for unknown reasons.

The sum total of the whole affair is that the government has loosed the faith of the mediators involved in the peace-process and definitely caused panic to prevail among the innocent population who had taken a respite after the talks had begun to take a concrete shape. Considering the fiery speeches made by DPM Poudel, it could be easily guessed that a direct confrontation in between the two warring sides couldn’t be ruled out in the immediate days. This assumption is supported by the fresh Prachanda press release in which he has totally rejected the possibility of having talks with the Koirala government. Indirectly it also means that the Maoists could throw their entire support to Deuba who apparently exhibited soft attitude in solving the issue of the insurgency. The timing of Prachanda’s statement is very important as at the moment the NC as a party is in a total mess and the Girija opposition is led by Deuba enjoying the blessings of the Old Bachelor Kishunjee who are thinking even of unseating Girija government through the use of some established norms much ahead of the January convention. Could be a mere conjecture but then very surprising indeed? Predictably, the Deuba section could have enjoyed internally the sheer failure of his rival government in settling the Maoists insurgency one and for all.

All in all, the nation has once again been thrown to uncertainty due to political immaturity of the government. The Maoists for obvious reasons should also share a small share of the evident loss of the golden opportunity. A precious chance has gone to the dogs. The possible use of military against the insurgency as uttered by Poudel is simply frightening. Equally dangerous is the kind of retaliation that would ensue from the other quarter in that event.

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