Indepth Analysis

Maoists-System leaders put to test

Kathmandu: Doubts over the success of the repeated talks between the government and the Maoist have their very sources in Prime Minister Deuba's own party. Confidence building measures begun with seemingly prior homework has yielded positive response from the Maoists no doubt. But the fact that party policy can change overnight with merely a change in Prime Minister prompts caution. The fact is that strongman Girija Prashad Koriala is still party chairman, he still holds the majority in the Central Committee, he has ensured a majority in the party General Assembly and has demonstrated that his nominee in the Parliamentary party can secure 40 votes for himself. To what extent then, can Prime Minister Deuba steer his own course in the party on as difficult as issue as the Maoists problem is thus the foremost question on most people's mind.

Regardless, Deuba has gone about with the appearance of full party concord. He has not only secured positive Maoist response, he is now in the process of building cross-party accord. As yet, he appears to have opened positive doors, so much is evident.

It is equally relevant to the forthcoming process that considerable movements are taking place in the Left. Talk of ML-UML dialogues and joint statements of more than one Left party deserve more than casual perusal. Moreover, an emerging Left consensus on the need for review of the behavioral aspects of Marxists in Nepal would seem to have meaning also in the context of political activities of the Maoists now already above ground.

These of course must be interpreted as preparatory to the possible competition politically once the talk yield results. Expectations towards this must also however, be dampened somewhat not only by real congress inhibitions but also by the evidently calculated raising of expectations that can be made to rebound on Deuba.

Yet another source of problems, of course, would be the Maoists standpoints at the very talks . radical postures have helped Maoists build-up a formidable organization the political strength of which has been recognized now by the system as such. The success of the talks depends, as much on the degree of compromises the Maoists are willing to make on these very postures. The strength of the leadership of the Maoists in their very own organization, nurtured as it is in the radicalism, will be put to test here, as will also the ability of the leadership to transcend party oriented politics for sake of the nation.

Deuba can't move without enjoying King's support

Kathmandu: The sudden prevalence of peace-like atmosphere in the beleaguered Nepali sky has aroused some hopes in the minds of the peace loving population of this nation.

The lay men have reasons to believe that since the two warring rivals, the government and the Maoists insurgents, have already conveyed messages that they would refrain from using the guns at each other, peace would ultimately dawn in the nation.

However, things were not that easy indeed.

Though the two sides have through their declaration of the cease-fire have amply hinted that both preferred talks instead of the guns, however, several nitty-gritty's need to be taken into proper account prior to the resumption of the much awaited talks in between the State and the insurgents.

A beaming Sher Bahadur Deuba has plenty of reasons to rejoice over his "primary success" he has already bagged from national parties and international friends for his call to the Maoists to shun violence and the instant reciprocity the latter exhibited over his call and shelved their guns at least for the time being. The other side too must be thanked for having heeded to the call of the State and agreed to come to the table.

One added advantage has been that the new Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is "'fully equipped" with the international support, more specifically from the Developed West who wish the radical communists being brought to the national mainstream. The pouring in of congratulatory messages from the Western nations supporting Deuba's peace overtures only testifies to the fact that Deuba is a person on whom the entire western democracies could repose trust at least on this count.

Surprising though it may appear, question could well be raised as to why the same developed West did not press Koirala for talks when the latter was in power? Did they wait Deuba to steer the nation after Koirala's exit? Sounds interesting indeed.

Now that since Deuba enjoys western support should tentatively mean that the new Premier if asks for heavy financial support from those nations so that a good number of projects and employment generating factories could well be established in the Maoists affected areas in the western region, the West perhaps will not deny. This could be the real advantage for Deuba and by the same token a good gesture for the Maoists cadres from the side of the establishment.

But that would be not all.

What is important for Deuba will be the kind of support he receives from his own "disgruntled" party-men; from the main opposition; from the smaller parties both in the parliament and outside of that.

Albeit, a great support Deuba will definitely expect from the Nepali army and the new monarch, King Gyanendra for obvious reasons.

Much will also depend on the King's belief in the new Prime Minister prior to going to the talks with the insurgents. The King apparently would wish to listen from his Prime Minister regarding the agenda for the talks, the conditions put forth by both the sides and finally the concessions that the government wishes to award to the insurgents in the dialogue process so that the insurgents join the main stream. This means that unless the King becomes more than assured, Deuba can't move and inch inspite his bagging total support from his party men and from other competent political forces. Here the King's role becomes important simply because the Maoists ultimate goal is the establishment of a republican state which the monarch and the monarchists will at this stage not wish even to talk.

The million-dollar question is whether Koirala will allow Deuba to bag success? Similarly, will Ram Chandra Poudel and the likes will give Deuba a free hand to proceed in the negotiation process and bag success, if any by sheer chance?

These nitty-gritty will perhaps be carefully watched. Indeed, the days ahead for Deuba will be not that easy enough. Understandably, Deuba will have to mind the concerns of national and international forces. Indeed, he can't dismiss the minimum interests of the insurgents with whom he is all set to talk.

However, a congenial atmosphere is being prepared and Deuba's political acumen awaits a serious test. A success in the process will make him a national hero. But will the hostile forces in and around him allow Deuba to become a hero? This has got to be watched.

What if all communists' forces form a grand alliance?

Kathmandu: Nepal's politics at the moment is definitely passing through a critical phase.

Critical in the sense that after a bloody-war of about six years which took thousands of innocent and precious lives on both the sides, the government and the Maoists insurgents have finally decided to heed to the people's request and have expressed their desire to talk to each other to ease the tension prevailing in the country of late.

The congress as a party too is in a critical phase as its Prime Minister is all set to enter into negotiations with the all-powerful Maoists insurgents. Undeniably, the failure of the talks with the Maoists will definitely have a great impact on the party's prestige and popularity itself. A careful strategy will perhaps be needed to retain the party's political career prior to going to the talks with the insurgents.

Likewise, the main opposition, the UML is too carefully watching the fastly emerging political developments after the government and the insurgents decided to resume talks with each other. The party is apparently assessing its role at this stage and after the success or even failure of the talks.

However, what is very important and significant is the new development marked in the UML of late.

A very powerful section in the UML headed by Comrade Madhav Nepal prefers now to join hands with the ML.

To recall, the UML split some three and a half years ago on count of differences over the controversial Mahakali treaty ratification in the parliament. Some members including Bamdev Gautam who considered the Mahakali treaty with India to be of less advantage to Nepal preferred to quit the party for good.

The man who was all out in support of the treaty in the UML was K.P.Woli who created awkward situations for the differing comrades that the latter preferred to quit the party and form one on their own.

Recent political overtures in the UML and the ML suggest that the party could yet again reunite and thereby gain the lost strength of the party that the both lost after the split.

Comrade K.P.Woli apparently is dead against this would-be "reunification" for obvious reasons.

Firstly perhaps, the grand entrance of the Bam Dev Gautam and his friends in to the UML mainstream could well strengthen the hands of his undeclared rival in the party-Madhav Nepal.

Unconfirmed reports have it that Madhav Nepal and K.P.Woli are almost like rivals to each other and hence both appear devising strategies round the clock in order to weaken the other camp.

Understandably, Madhav's recent political overtures to bring back Bam Dev in the UML could be one strategy through which he can minimize the growing strength of his archrival in the party. By the same token, K.P.Woli's strategy could be not to let Bam Dev to enter the party.

Apart from Madhav-Woli feud in the party over ML joining the UML, what is equally interesting is the timing of MLs desire to join the UML.

Firstly, the talk of reunification has come after King Birendra's death, which definitely has landed the nation into a different political situation. Secondly, the unification talks also have come at a time when the Maoists tentatively forced the government to invite them for dialogues. This accomplishment is great for the insurgents because the impending talks with the State establishes them as a power in the eyes of the establishment and provides them with a sort of recognition to their insurgency.

Who knows finally a strengthened UML forms a comfortable alliance with the Maoists who by then will have already emerged as a powerful force in the truest sense of the term? To recall, the UML is yet presumably to reconcile with the present dispensation.

Add to this the talks of the formation of a grand alliance of all the smaller and bigger communist forces?

What does all these mean?

The UML and the Maoists perhaps were very close to each other ideologically except that one is in the jungles and the other in the parliament. Ideologically too, the UML will find itself comfortable with the Maoists rather than with the congress or for that matter with the RPP and the NSP.

To recall, many a members of the present day UML have already taken up the arms in the past. (Madhav Nepal has already declared the insurgency as the fourth force).

Understandably, if all the communists' forces join hands, the nation will easily go their way.

What would happen then? Keep on guessing.

What is in Maoists 40-point demand?

Kathmandu: Save a few tough demands put forth by the Maoists to the establishment at time of Deuba's first Premiership for its redress, the rest of the demands could well be met easily should the government so desired say Kathmandu intellectuals.

Out of a total of forty-point demand, some demands if met with will definitely annoy neighboring India and hence might invite wrath from the latter at an appropriate time to which perhaps Nepal will never dare.

For example, two of their demands are related with the nullification of the 1950 Nepal-India Peace Treaty

And the Mahakali treaty.

The toughest of it all perhaps is the demand that the 'elected representatives' for the establishment of a People's Republic should be allowed to form a new constitution.

One of their demands relates to the abrupt scrapping up of all the special privileges granted to the King and his family members. Likewise their demand also include declaring Nepal a secular state and that the military and the police forces be under the total command of the people.

The rest of the demands contained therein relate to the social upliftment of the oppressed and neglected people of the country to which perhaps no one will disagree.

Demands relating to the end of the menace of corruption; providing opportunities to the disadvantaged class and groups are all welcome.

All in all, the forty-point demand put forth by the insurgents envisages a Nepal where there is no discrimination in between the poor and the rich; no oppression and people possess enough to eat and work

It remains to be seen as to how Sher Bahadur Deuba satisfies the insurgents and brings them back into the national mainstream.

It will also be watched seriously as to how the Maoists react to governments' no to some of their demands, which they consider to be of immense importance.

Indeed, the talks will also witness each other's bargaining capabilities.

Are the military men still in Nuwa Gaon?

Kathmandu: The whereabouts of the Nepal's military forces that had been deliberately sent to contain the threats of the Maoists and to free the 69 kidnapped policemen from Holeri police post from the grips of the insurgents is unknown to the national population.

Whether the military men were still in Nuwa Gaon jungles still trying their best to free the policemen and get their arms and ammunitions back from the insurgents too is unknown.

However, what is known for sure is that since Sher Bahadur Deuba took up as the new Prime Minister of the nation, no body including the government and the concerned authorities in the Defence ministry prefers to tell the facts about the whereabouts of the military thus sent by Premier Koirala at the fag end of his tenure.

The government's stoic silence kept in this regard is simply puzzling. The lay men would like to know about the military's position at the moment: whether they were still there or have already been told to come to their former barracks?

Since Deuba's fervent appeal made to the insurgents to shun violence and come to the table for dialogues and the instant reciprocation from the other camp, the whereabouts of the military men in Nuwa Gaon took the back seat.

Nevertheless, former Prime Minister Koirala's recent half-baked utterances made in the regard of the military men sent to Nuwa Gaon suggest that some differences might have forced him to resign. But what could be those differences?

Is it that the military disobeyed the nation's Prime Minister's command? Or is it that the military simply preferred not to use the guns against the Maoists? Or what else?

Unsubstantiated reports suggest that the new monarch too differed with the nation's Prime Minister over the use of the army and hence Koirala was forced to resign.

But then had the new monarch differed with Koirala he would have not ordered the army to reach Nuwa Gaon.

"Ask the military" is tentatively the reply of Koirala as and when some media men ask him the reason behind his resignation.

Though things appear to have settled for the moment, however, there could be more than meets the eye.

Be that as it may, the government must tell the people about the present state of the armymen sent to Nuwa Gaon some three weeks back. After all, they too were the sons of the same soil.

''Combat corruption and red tape' Nepal told

Kathmandu: What was feared has unfortunately been laid bare by none less than the US Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca regarding the existence of rampant 'corruption and red tape' in government bureaucracy in Nepal.

Ms. Christina Rocca has in her departure statement indirectly hinted that it should be Nepal as a country which should create what she prefers to call a "healthy investment climate" in the country prior to inviting such foreign investments in the country. That there does not exist a healthy climate in Nepal is what the local intellectuals have understood to be her implied message.

That corruption is rampant in Nepal and that it acted as a hurdle in the development of Nepal has best been summarized by Ms. Rocca in her departure statement.

This means that she might have also been briefed by her embassy officials about the Lauda procurement deal and the CIAA's subtle warning served onto the then Prime Minister Koirala and the subsequent furore in Nepalese parliament that caused the 19 th session of the parliament to come to an end without conducting any business or whatsoever.

By the same token the local US embassy officials would have also whispered about the UML minister's involvement in the China-South West airliner deal which in essence has become the root cause for uneasiness in between Madhav Nepal and K.P.Woli.

To recall, Woli wishes that the then UML minister Bhim Rawal be penalized. His rival, Madhav Nepal has already given a clean chit to Bhim Rawal.

Summing up, the minister hopefully has left Nepal enriching her knowledge regarding the level and the extent of corruption in Nepal and that too at the higher political echelons.

Thanks that the lone super power has ultimately understood the functioning of Nepalese democracy which is apparently "'safe" under the grips of "corrupt leaders".

Hopefully, the rest of the democratic nations of the world will exhibit the American concern.( See last page for her departure statement).

Departure Statement by Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs Christina Rocca

Kathmandu -- July 28, 2001. My visit to Nepal has provided just what I had hoped: an opportunity to meet many prominent Nepalis and to hear their views on the challenges facing this fascinating nation.
I met with King Gyanendra, Prime Minister Deuba, and many other prominent leaders with a variety of interests: political, security, business, human rights, journalism, etc.

I confirmed that the Bush Administration sees each of the nations of South Asia as important to U.S. interests, and I gave assurance that we have no intention of looking at Nepal through the prism of any other nation.

I wished new King Gyanendra and new Prime Minister Deuba well as they follow-up on their commitments to solidify the benefits of democracy for all the Nepali people. I listened as Nepalis explained their sometimes very different views on next steps, especially in responding to the Maoist insurgency. One constant theme of Nepali leaders in all my meetings was the conviction that Nepal's democracy must endure. The United States wholeheartedly concurs. Political change is always possible in a democracy.The key is ensuring that, if change is desired, it take place within the constitutional framework, thus guaranteeing it is the will of the people.

The United States welcomes the cease fire on offensive activities which Prime Minister Deuba proposed and which Maoist leaders have announced they have accepted. Nepalis clearly should solve their problems peacefully and within a constitutional, democratic process. We urge that the cease fire lead to progress toward a permanent peace. And we urge that human rights be constantly respected by all sides in Nepal.


I complimented Nepal's extremely professional contributions to U.N. peacekeeping operations around the world, and I noted the U.S. strong interest in South Asia's regional development, including via the SAARC.

I heard many expressions of thanks for past U.S. economic assistance to Nepal. Ours has been a long and very productive friendship. I gave assurance that the United States will continue to aid Nepal's development within the democratic context.

Several Nepali leaders urged more U.S. investment in Nepal. I want that, too; and I emphasized that a crucial step in achieving that mutual goal is for Nepal to create a healthy investment climate by combating corruption and unnecessary red tape.

I discussed Nepal's textile exports to the United States in meetings with the Prime Minister, the Foreign Secretary, and the business community. The Nepali side explained their concerns, and I listened with care. Meeting Nepal's requests will be difficult, especially given that the current global textile-quota system will disappear in any case in 2004. However, I agreed to carry Nepali concerns back to Washington for further consideration.

I leave convinced that Nepal's challenges are great but so are its prospects. A thriving, secure democracy and open markets under the rule of law are essential. As a good friend, the United States looks forward to continuing its efforts to help Nepal reach those goals.

I already look forward to my next visit.

Normalcy in Tourism Activities in Sri Lanka

Kathmandu: The Bandaranaike International Airport in Colombo is back in operation with Sri Lankan Airlines and other International carriers flying in and out on adjusted schedules. There have been some delays and rescheduling of flights during the initial period and the situation has returned to normalcy again, says a press release issued by the Chairman Renton de Alvis on behalf of the Sri Lanka Tourist Board regarding the resumption of normalcy in Tourism activities in Sri Lanka.

The press release further notes: "All resorts and other tourism facilities are operating as they were before the incident on Tuesday. All facilities that were available for tourists are also operating with the same efficiency in the resort areas on the beaches, the hill country and the cultural triangle. The North and the East of the country is still not open for tourism operations, as was prior to the incident.

Security arrangements have been tightened at all tourist resorts with transport and other facilities to and from the Airport operating normally.

The travel industry in Sri Lanka invites all tourists to Sri Lanka to enjoy our hospitality, friendliness and warmth, the press release concludes.

National | 5 Question  | Editorial | 2nd Impression | International | Past