Indepth Analysis

New postures add to instability

Kathmandu: The Left unity maneuvers have meaning. With the call for negotiations allowing Maoists activities in the open, the competition to woo cadres in the Left has heightened. It is by far clear that a meaning is being sought of the Left ideology and activities conforming to this ideological purity is likely to be the defining point for the unity moves. Such soul-searching is likely also to prove the basis for "'exposing" the deterrence to the sought-after streamlining of the Left movement in Nepal. It is also likely to reduce previous cadre preference to chose a mainstream Left party to work above ground in the day and go underground as Maoists workers by night. Last week saw the authentication of the unity moves by a call for such from the UML and the ML despite denials of the same.

Clearly, the change has been precipitated by the expected political negotiations between the congress and the Maoists. It is not surprising therefore that mainstream-Left demands now heighten their pitch on fundamental issues which in so many ways appear closer to the Maoists Left. The ML, for example, makes issue with the matter of Royal assets; the UML is now asking that the Army come under the government. The Maoists now make conditions regarding the implementation of the armed police and the security acts. Government is bent to pass it in the parliament.

A new polarization would thus seem to be emerging. For the mainstream Opposition for whom the Girija resignation precipitated its fundamental platform of the day, the new issues would seem vital. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba will have to contend with these while at the same time dealing with his prime agenda, negotiations with the Maoists. It is this that poses new and potent handicaps for the government.

The others have sources in Deuba's own party. A glimpse provided in this source may be found in the mandate provided him by his Central Committee. Deuba has been told to conduct his talks on the basis of the constitution. It is the constitution that has been at issue.

Willy-nilly, the impression is that capitalizing from recent changes for political gains is the prime strategy. A period of severe instability would seem the order of the day. A monarchy, for example, only just recuperating from recent tragic events at its very core, is not being allowed to settle in its conventional constitutional role set by the late King Birendra. From Deuba's detractors in the congress party to the extreme Maoists demands regarding the monarchy do not appear bereft of individual political strategies. Curiously, Deuba's government for the moment appears to have been caught in between. The race for political benefits from the new postures is on.

Will the Maoists join talks if the govt. insist getting through APF and PSR bills?

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba led government's fresh political overtures inside the parliament have presumably touched the sensitivities and the susceptibilities of the other camp that is the Maoists insurgency. This new attitude of the government might disturb the peace process initiated of late by the government and the insurgents.

The reason, say the Maoists sources, is simple. In essence, the insurgents now doubt the very motive of the government which in their opinion might have been carried away by some internal or even international forces under whose pressure the establishment under Deuba is all set to get through this parliament session the Armed Police Force bill brought through the use of the Royal Ordinance some forty plus days back.

The Maoists, to recall, wish that the government summarily cancels the acts and the laws and the regulations (Public Security regulations, for example) that have been already considered by them together with various other political parties as draconian and then come to the negotiating table.

However, the eagerness noticed in the government quarters of late in getting the bills getting through the ongoing parliament itself has alarmed the Maoists quarters who have bluntly said that "such overtures" might disturb the entire atmosphere for the talks in between the two: the government and the insurgents.

Exchanges of the prisoners of war, POWs; declaration of the whereabouts of the missing insurgents by the government and the abrupt scrapping up of the Armed Police Force bill and that of the Public Security Regulations, are some of the preconditions set by the insurgents for the perusal of the government prior to the talks.

While the first condition has apparently been met by both the parties, the rest of the two conditions the government is yet to comply with say Maoists sources.

Notably, the government and the insurgents were yet to divulge the number of persons under their detention and their whereabouts.

However, propaganda machinery on both the sides appear busy in telling the people that they remained committed for the talks and that they both have been releasing prisoners or for that matter the kidnapped ones only to facilitate the peace talks.

Undoubtedly, if the government remains adamant in its fresh stand and gets through those two controversial bills this session, the proposed talks in between the insurgents and the establishment is sure to meet with a different fate altogether.

What would happen to the entire peace process if the Maoists too exhibit their firm determination and conclude that prior to the talks they wish the two bills scrapped altogether?

A deadlock can't be ruled out in the new scheme of things that have suddenly developed in the nation.

Talking to a local newspaper, home minister Khadka has amply hinted that the government would definitely bag success this round and will pass the two bills easily.

How the main opposition and other political parties take the government's fresh overtures regarding the controversial bills will amply influence the Maoists' future moves including the talks.

Political 'polarization' in Nepal can't be ruled out

Kathmandu: Whether or not the time was yet ripe for "forging alliances" with other smaller communist factions (parties), however, the 22nd Central Committee meeting of the United Marxists-Leninists, the UML, has decided to proceed towards that end.

The freshly concluded party's 22 nd. Central committee meeting has among others stated that the party will initiate talks with those communists parties whose aims and objectives tally or match with those of the UML itself in order to "forge alliances" in the larger interests of the nation.

The UML goes one step further.

It also records that the party will even wish to form a sort of "working alliances" with those smaller communists factions or groupings whose minimum objectives appear closer to the UML's declared objectives.

"The UML appeals all the political parties belonging to the communists camps to come together in the greater interests of the nation and the people setting aside all the past differences or prejudices", adds the appeal.

Most daringly, the UML even calls upon the Maoists insurgents to shun their excessive adventurist policies and join the mainstream communist party that is the UML.

However, the ground reality is that the Maoists claim their party to be the mainstream communist party in the nation. In the Maoists views, the UML has deflected already from the set principles and ideologies of communist movement and hence it was they who could claim to be the real communist mainstream party in the country.

Be that as it may, how the smaller factions of the communists react to these new UML political overtures will have to be carefully watched. However, what is for sure is that the UMLs fervent appeal has come at a time when things in Nepal's political spectrum have changed demanding the convergence of like minded people, individuals and that of parties.

UMLs fresh appeal is also significant in the light of the hard fact that of late the UML cadres at the grass roots level appear enchanted more towards the Maoists insurgency than their own mother organization. It could hence be a political ploy of the UML to keep intact their cadres and maintain the status of the largest opposition in the country.

By and large, if the congress as a party has caused irreparable damage to the existing system through its hotch-potch performances and maligned the very prestige of the nation through acts of corruption over the years, the UML as the second main party in the country too can't escape the blame to a greater extent. Willy-nilly, a good number of UML leaders while being in government too have not come out unscathed and the people yet recall some of the clandestine deals that gave a very bad name to the communists now in the UML camp.

Nevertheless, the floating of the idea itself of the supposed 'unification' in between and among the communists by the UML has visibly terrified political parties other than the UML.

For example, the RPP which claims to be a Democratic Party albeit after the congress, too has decided internally the other day to initiate actions that "strengthen and consolidate" the party organization. The new decision arrived at by the RPP appears to have been guided by the fear that any delay in strengthening the party functioning might cause the fleeing of its cadres to other political parties more so to the communists groupings.

Similarly, the congress too appears to be thinking on the same line. If home minister Khadka's recent utterances were any clue then the congress is all set to initiate actions that bring the congressmen closer in order to match the strength of other political parties more so of the communists under the flag of the UML. However, the question is who will dare to bring the congressmen together?

Considering the existence of various factions in the congress party, it would be pretty difficult for any one who would dare to unite the party even if it has become a must for the congress. Understandably there is a leadership crisis in the congress.

All in all, a sort of political polarization is in the offing in the nation. It might take long for the would be polarization to take a shape, however, what could be predicted at this juncture is that if the communists form a grand alliance then the democratic forces perhaps will come together to match the strength of the former. After all a balance is needed in politics too.

The necessity and the required speed thereafter of the polarization process will much depend on the success or the failure of the government-insurgents talks.

Greater 'flexibility' on both sides needed for positive results

Kathmandu: The Sher Bahadur Deuba led government's extra enthusiasm seen regarding the talks with the Maoists insurgents and bagging marked success apparently has received a major jolt when the other camp hinted that it would be pretty difficult for them to come to the table should the government insist on getting through the armed police force and the public security regulations bills from the current session of the parliament.

While this could be a major setback for the government led by Deuba, a host of other factors too visibly have been working to harass both the government and the Maoists prior to the talks.

Unsubstantiated reports have it that forces hostile to Deuba and his fresh peace initiatives have been putting a sort of indirect pressure on him to put conditions on the Maoists prior to the talks. The pressures were in the form that this Deuba could do, and this Deuba should not do.

This set of forces wishes to warn Deuba that if he exceeded his constitutional limits, he will have to face grave consequences both within the party and without. In essence, the warnings are being served only to harass the incumbent Prime Minister so that he meets the same fate as his predecessors did.

Question arises here as to who could be those who were feeling threatened from the current proposed government- insurgents talks?

After all there is nothing to panic. What is the guarantee that the talks will come to a happy end so soon or say even in the first round of talks? Unquestionably, the nation very well is aware of Deuba's political maneuverability. He is honest for the talks indeed. But his political acumen perhaps we all know if one were to recall his previous tenure in government.

Undoubtedly, what is more than reassuring are that finally both the warring rivals have agreed to come to the table. After all, unless some one talked of their problems and wished its prompt redressal how things will move?

Presumably, Deuba as the Prime Minister understands his constitutional limits and has time and again hinted to the Maoists that he would not entertain the insurgents' demands that were beyond his capacities and capabilities. Perhaps the Maoists too were not that ignorant of Deuba's flexibility vis-à-vis their demands. A matured party of the sort of the Maoists too will understand this constitutional complication that might arise more often than not at the table talk.

Neither the Maoists nor the government should talk of preconditions prior to the talks. Things will automatically move positively when flexibility and concessions to each other's demands are extended and that too willingly.

Therefore bids to put hurdles in the entire peace process that is fortunately taking shape after sacrificing two thousand plus precious lives would not be wise.

Fortunately enough, Deuba now enjoys his own party's mandate; he is to be equipped soon with an "all party consensus" mandate and more so he will definitely be blessed by the entire population who have in essence been facing the brunt of the police-insurgents never ending rivalry.

Add to this that Deuba perhaps enjoys the unconditional support from all the peace loving nations of the globe.

However, much will now depend on Deuba's detractors well within the party. Will Deuba be allowed a free hand at the talks as per the party's mandate recently awarded to him or will he have to act as per the instructions of seen and unseen mentors both within and without will perhaps determine Deuba's degree of success or even failure indeed.

SAARC-UNDCP seminar on drug control

Kathmandu: A workshop on drug control is being organized by the SAARC Secretariat in close cooperation with the UNDCP-United Nations Drug Control Program, next week, it is learnt from the SAARC Secretariat sources.

The workshop will commence on 17 August and will conclude the next day.

Newly appointed minister for Home and Local Development Mr. Khum Bahadur Khadka will inaugurate the two-day workshop.

However, the SAARC Secretariat does not divulge the personalities and the agencies attending the workshop on drug control.

Much importance is being given to this two-day workshop here because in the recent years the number of drug users/addicts in Nepal has dramatically has grown.

Notably, the users of the sedative drugs in Nepal are those young men who either are unemployed ones or were the neglected ones in their own family/society.

The number of unemployed youths in Nepal is swelling every year.

Maoists utilizing the cease-fire to hilt

Kathmandu: Emboldened and encouraged by the cease-fire announced by the Deuba leg government, the Maoists insurgents now dare to conduct their assemblies right in the district headquarters and more so conducted one last week in the heart of Kathmandu metropolitan city itself.

What is mind boggling indeed is that the government which till yesterday considered the insurgents as terrorists could exhibit its magnanimity and officially "allow" them to conduct their mass meeting in Indrachowk.-a commercial area close to New Road.

Not very surprisingly then the incumbent home minister admits that what is the harm if they speak their minds to the people.

" In a democracy one is fully allowed to present his or her views openly. The Maoists are enjoying their democratic rights. We do not intend to watch or even control their ongoing activities. Let them do their job", says Khum Bahadur Khadka to a newspaper printed Tuesday.

Perhaps this hint is enough for the insurgents to conduct further mass meetings and according to the program, a series of mass meetings are being organized in various places of the country beginning Tuesday that will continue till August 20.

In a sense, a sort of honey-moon is continuing in between the government and the insurgents.

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