Indepth Analysis

New signals for Sher Bahadur Deuba

Kathmandu: The Maoists are gaining. The new legitimacy provided by the government calls for talks allows them to romp even Kathmandu streets. There is concern also that their programs to extort funds have not abated. In the countryside the release of known extremists with the police standing mere onlookers have contributed to a fear psychosis almost akin to that when armed conflict was taking place. The fact of the matter is that the government gestures have yet to be responded to by the insurgents outside of the secession of the armed conflicts.

This perhaps was expected of any conciliatory initiatives on part of the government. What was not expected perhaps is the delay in further confidence building measures that must bring the Maoists to the table. It is this delay that must be looked into and any cursory glimpse provided suggest that the government has yet to muster the necessary accord within the party and from among the non-Maoists for a common strategy to bring them to the talks.

One such glimpse was provided by an Nepal Television Chintan-Manan program this week where the UML's Madhav Nepal; the RPP's Pashupati Rana and the ML's Bam Dev Gautam all agreed that the government had yet to devise a commonly agreed strategy to woo their parties in the talks with the Maoists.

The program was also revealing in the sense that it was occasion for yet another public admission that there was common agreement on part of the major Left parties for the need for the Left unity. Somewhat more potent perhaps was the casual Bam Dev remark there that the Left unity move could not discount the inclusion of the Maoists.

Perhaps of equal significance is the continuing talk of an all-party effort meaning an all party government. Some how the UML and the RPP minced words on this precondition while the ML is more forthright. Consensus, however, is in the need for an all-party effort to rid the country of the conditions that allowed the Maoists movement to take roots. Whether Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's government is reading these messages rightly is what matters.

Success of talks largely depend on extent of concessions being offered

Kathmandu: Undoubtedly the national politics has entered into a new phase. Even a slight mistake committed either by the government or for that matter the insurgents could result in the sudden emergence of a chaotic state which will definitely go out of control of the both who are all set to enter into a dialogue soon.

What is also true conversely is the fact that there would be an unimaginably-pleasing sort of prevalence of peace in the Kingdom if the two warring rivals till the other day, the government and the Maoists insurgents, settle their "political differences" at the negotiating table once and for all.

However, the million dollar question is to what extent the parties concerned were prepared and willing to understand each other's pressing 'issues and constraints' and to what extent one was willing to satisfy the other and vice versa through granting "concessions".

This is what will greatly influence and determine apparently the "mood" and the future course of actions to be taken by the parties sitting in table as that would remain instrumental in making the talks a grand success or even a total failure.

Analyzing the present mood of the Maoists insurgents and their "aboveground" statements, what is for sure is that they will not settle for less than, firstly, the formation of an all party government; secondly, they would wish a substantial change in the existing constitution and finally would press the government to go in for a referendum to ascertain the mood of the lay men whether they were content with the present monarchical system or would wish to jump onto republicanism.

Asking for almost impossible things at least gives one something and this is what one needed at least for the time being. The demands could later be also expanded in content and in form. This way the insurgents could sense the mood of the ruling clique and chart their future course of actions.

However, for the government to begin with could do a lot in solving the peripheral demands of the insurgents for those demands relate with the well being of the people. Where the government will have problems would be the necessary funds which perhaps the donors could easily provide.

Secondly, regarding the formation of an all party government, the government could be formed though there is no such provision in the existing constitution. However, if peace is guaranteed, this would perhaps be not that a big issue. The fact is that many a politicians not in the parliament would jump to share a ministerial berth in a government mentioned above.

Thirdly, the real problem for the government would be on how to reject the existing constitution and frame a new constitution as demanded by the Maoists. However, a patchwork formulae could be arrived at by effecting certain changes in the 1990 constitution and making it "Maoists friendly". Nevertheless, yet another hurdle will come in the way regarding the Monarchy. By and large the insurgents would wish the abolition of monarchy, which the government and several "democratic minded" political parties would definitely rush to reject at least at this juncture.

It is here that the real political acumen of both the "parties" would be tested.

Intellectuals opine that, the Maoists will at least at this stage not press the establishment on this count and will hopefully keep aside the matter to be revived at a later stage.

Be that as it may, the fact is that the Maoists will have upper-hands in the talks for obvious reasons.. It is the government which has to offer "grand concessions" in order to protect the insurgents from entering into the jungles.

The only political benefit for the government will be that by then it will have known all the faces of the Maoists leaders. Equal benefit will have also gone to the insurgents in the sense that by then it will also get its high ranking leaders freed from government custody.

Summing up, the days ahead are very crucial for Nepal and her politics.

UML's changed stance surprise many including Maoists

Kathmandu: The main Opposition party-the UML apparently stands exposed in the eyes of the common national population and that section of the congress which is currently under former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala.

Add to this the fresh political overtures which the UML exhibited inside the parliament and the "tacit" manner it supported the Deuba led government and facilitated the two controversial Bills pertaining to the armed police force and regional administration affairs to get through the parliament bespeaks so many things about the UML and the politics it played all along these past three and a half months.

To recall, it was this UML which for 57 days created havoc inside the parliament during its winter session. Similarly, the UML also seduced the rest of the political parties to toe its line and they complied.

In the process, the lay men including the Nepali media men too saw reasons in UML's creating furore both within the parliament and without and supported the party's move which it claimed were all in people's favour.

The UML also then gave an impression to all and sundry that Girija Prasad Koirala was a hardliner and hence nothing could be expected from him regarding the protection of basic human rights of the people and therefore demanded his outright resignation. In fact, the UML pressed Girija so hard that finally he had to quit. It is altogether a different matter that Koirala had to relinquish the chair for other reasons as well more so when the "already deployed" military tentatively disobeyed his orders at Rolpa-Nuwagaon jungles.

However, suddenly the UML changed its stance and preferred to support the establishment in passing the two bills which the party considered "anti-democratic"'.

Analysing the sudden change in UMLs "political behavior" after the advent of Deuba regime, what could be best said that firstly, the party had a sort of allergy with Prime Minister Koirala. Secondly, the UML concluded that since Girija is a hard liner and hence he could not be "threatened" as would be easy with the person whosoever replaced Koirala. Thirdly, the UML in doing so has amply exhibited that theirs choice was Sher Bahadur Deuba in place of Koirala. Fourthly, the changed stance of the UML also clearly exposes the party's intimate links with present Prime Minister through the kind courtesy of K.P.Bhattarai whose connections with Madhav Nepal are well known.

Fifthly and more significantly, the UML as a party internally remains presumably terrified with the Maoists growing strength. The UML might have concluded that the Maoists insurgents were now a very big force that forced the establishment not only to recognize them as a "force" but also compelled the government to come to the table tentatively under their preconditions. It could be this factor which might have led the UML to think that if the Maoists-government talks failed unfortunately, the insurgency possesses the potential to attract UML cadres in the villages which in effect what is happening of late. A fresh statement issued by the UML describes the Maoists insurgency as "''mis-adventurists" and has decided to fight a sort of "ideological war" with the insurgents.

Keeping in mind this fear psychosis, the UML could have taken this stand and supported the passing of the bills which could later be used by the establishment to take care of the Maoists insurgency.

The Maoists-friendly newspapers too have expressed their surprise over the UMLs changed attitude and have dubbed the UML as "brother-Congress".

Be that as it may, the nitty-gritty of all these clandestine political developments will come to the open, hopefully, in the months ahead.

Indian FM visit meaningful!

Kathmandu: The Indian Foreign Affairs minister Jaswant Singh is arriving Nepal this Friday.

The timing of Mr. Singh's Kathmandu visit is not only significant but loaded with meaning as well, say local intellectuals.

Indian foreign minister Singh's Nepal visit is taking place at a time when the reigns of Nepalese government has slipped from Girija Prasad Koirala's hands and is now under the tight grip of Sher Bahadur Deuba who is considered more "West" friendly than neighboring India.

Secondly, Mr. Singh's visit is materializing when Nepal as a nation-state is all set to initiate meaningful and constructive dialogues with Nepalese Maoists insurgents in order to restore peace in the Kingdom which has already become a rare commodity since six years or so.

Thirdly, the Indian dignitary is coming to Nepal coinciding with the Nepalese allegations that the Indian dams constructed well inside the Indian territories have inundated several villages in the western Terai which also possesses the potential, say Nepalese experts, to wipe out even the birth place of Lord Buddha if proper attention were not taken by friendly India.

Fourthly, Mr. Singh's visit is taking shape at a time when the Nepal government is being amply pressed by the Maoists leaders to do away with the 1950 Nepal-India treaty and other treaties which the insurgents consider to be unequal. To recall, of the 40 point demands pushed by the insurgents for the perusal of the government, these treaties mentioned above occupy special priorities apparently in the Maoists agenda during their talks with the government.

And finally, Mr. Singh's trip comes in the wake of Nepal's Supreme Court's decision to cancel the citizenship certificates of those Nepalese who got it through foul means.

Not very surprisingly that the entire Indian establishment took Nepal's SCs fresh decision regarding the citizenship issue gets reflected in the editorial, rather strong and threatening indeed, printed in The Times of India dated August 9.

That Indian establishment is not happy with Nepali court's decision becomes apparently clear when the TOI editorial says: (sic)" The Nepal supreme court's recent order denying citizenship to thousands of people of 'Indian origin' who have lived for generations in the Terai region could trigger a domestic crisis fraught with implications for India-Nepal relations".

At the end of the editorial, the TOI has this to state: "Otherwise, Nepal, which has already undergone much trauma and upheaval-would be courting another avoidable conflict".

If the general Nepali belief that the TOI finds itself comfortable with India's South Block were true then what could be summarized is that India presumably is sending its foreign minister (within a week of the SC's decision) to seek clarifications about the SC's fresh overtures regarding the citizenship issue of the Nepali brethren of living in the Terai region.

How nice it would have been if the Indian establishment too exhibited its "genuine concern" as and when Indians of Nepali origin living in Assam or in Meghalaya were maltreated or even forced to quit the country.

It is time that the Nepali government seeks reciprocity in such issues from the other side.

Be that as it may, the Nepalese people living in Terai must be awarded the citizenship certificates at the earliest. However, the existing laws of the land must regulate the awarding of such certificates.

However, one has to admire the Indian sensitivities for those genuine Nepalese who happen to be of Indian origin.

Nevertheless, such occasional visits do contribute in enhancing bilateral ties and promote better understandings among the friendly neighbors.

Finland minister visiting Nepal this month

Kathmandu: A high level Finnish official delegation is arriving Nepal by the end of this month, it is learnt from the Nepalese foreign ministry sources.

The delegation is led by Honorable minister for Environment and Development Cooperation Ms. Satu Hassi.

The Finnish official team will be in Nepal for four days.

The team is expected to hold talks on matters of bilateral interests with various leaders and ministers of this country.

To recall last November Finland had sent a high level delegation to Nepal which among other things had warned Nepal that in order to receive Finnish assistance the government in Kathmandu must perform, provide good governance and provide basic human rights to its citizens.

Hopefully, this time as well the Finnish delegation will put forth almost same sort of conditions if Nepal wished to continue with the Finnish aid and assistance for her developmental activities.

The visiting Finnish dignitary will address a press conference on 2 nd September, next month.

Ms. Satu Hassi is scheduled to arrive here on 31 st August, this month.

German donation to TU library

Kathmandu: The Ambassador of Federal Republic of Germany, H.E Rudiger Lemp, recently handed over a collection of science-related books to the Central Library of Tribhuvan University.

The books come as a donation worth approximately 200,000 Nepali rupees from the "Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft", DFG, the largest research support organization in Germany.

Although funded almost entirely from public funds at the federal and state level, DFG specializes in the field of University-led basic research, and German universities make up the large majority of DFG members.

DFG has a long history of cooperation with Nepalese educational institutions, it is learnt.

Nepal is a focal country for DFG support, and altogether more than 40 research projects in various fields have received assistance funds worth about 6 million Deutschmarks, about 200 million NRs, over the years.

CEDA scholars invite Pak envoy

Kathmandu: Under the initiation of the Kathmandu based Nepal-SAARC Journalists Forum (NSJF), the CEDA-Center for Economic Development and Administration has invited Ambassador of Pakistan, Ms. Fouzia Nasereen, for a talk program on Nepal-Pakistan bilateral ties.

During the talks, the scholars at CEDA would wish to know from the Pakistani dignitary about the recently concluded Agra Summit, which brought President Musarraf and Prime Minister Bajpayee together.

Scholars at CEDA hope that such interactions with Ambassadors from friendly nations help promote bilateral ties and enhance existing mutual understanding between the people of both the countries.

The NSJF has assured the CEDA officials that in future it would willingly extend its good offices in arranging similar sort of interactions with other SAARC residential Ambassadors.

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