Indepth Analysis

Deuba credibility eroding fast!

Kathmandu: Preoccupation with the announced talks with the Maoists and the proposed eight-point program consume politics these days. Government is out to sell it although what actually the programs consist of has yet to come public authentically despite calculated leaks. The Left whose unity moves seem to have hitches on the way maintain that Deuba's step should follow the BADAL Commission recommendations whole hog and the appearance is that their mobilization of the workers anticipate compromises against which they will take to the streets. The other opposition including that within Deuba's own congress party continue to hit hard in parliament and outside demanding recognition that land constitutes capital and so the ceiling should be on capital and not the land alone.

These issues paralyze parliament no doubt. But the more potent for politics perhaps is the evident polarization on standpoints from which unsettling possibilities may be read.

To add to the current fluidity is the appearance Deuba must continue to give of gestures wooing the Maoists to the table for talks. So far the Maoists continue to take other actions apart from armed ones at the grass roots and there is recognition that their gestures in releasing people in their custody have fallen far short of that responded to by the government. Last week saw the government rocked the boat again with concessions to the Maoists demands against production-sale and consumption of the Alcohol. Already the price of the BOTTLE has shot up and the charismatic LIQUID has disappeared from shop counters.

The mass disgruntlement is against virtual lack of Maoists response amidst continuing concessions on part of the government that enhances the widespread feeling of insecurity among the people. Some or the other force is surely likely to capitalize from this void.

As it is, the police are hardly a source of security in these circumstances. Party workers including that in the government remain handicapped by the Maoists resurgence at the visible level and Deuba has opened fronts that seem to be isolating him from conventional bases of organized support.

Clearly, Sher Bahadur Deuba must deliver and deliver fast in order to render his eroding credibility some reprieve.

If Maoists come to power could establish "working relation" with India, says Prachanda

Kathmandu: The Maoists' insurgents will not settle for less. The government under Sher Bahadur Deuba is determined to force the insurgency to settle for less.

Both have their declared and obvious compulsions indeed. It has got to be watched which of the two settle for less at the end of the negotiation.

That the Maoists got a major jolt to their avowed desire for the ultimate formation of a republican state in Nepal when the UML supremo told point blank comrade Prachanda in Siliguri that their desire would remain a mere desire only at this juncture for any effort on that direction would instantly invite chaos and political instability in the nation to the extent that some powerful force might exploit the emerging situation in its favor.

Madhav Nepal's big NO to Comrade Prachanda's proposal apparently has weakened the position of the Maoists. However, this has not deterred the Maoists leaders to push firmly their ultimate wish for the installment of republicanism in Nepal.

Indications to this effect become pretty evident from the news/stories being printed by Maoists friendly newspapers wherein they even now dare to dub Madhav Nepal to be toeing the line of Dr. Keshar Jung Rayamajhi.

To recall, former communist veteran Dr. Rayamajhi is being blamed by practically all the communists groupings in Nepal as to have blurred the image of communist parties by aligning himself with the Nepali Royalty at time of the 1960 Royal Coup de'etat. Dr Rayamajhi is currently the chairman of the Royal Standing Committee.

The newspapers friendly to the insurgency even suspect that Madhav Nepal upon his return from Siliguri met the King and the Prime Minister and hinted both of the "'designs" of the Maoists in case the pending negotiations failed.

Whether Madhav Nepal acted that way or those were simply the Maoists imagination is yet unclear. However, what is crystal clear is that the government under Deuba has become totally alert and as the Kathmandu rumor mill suggests the government has already "instructed" the Nepali Army to take stock of the situation so that "appropriate" actions could be taken in case the Maoists remain firm in their demand for the installation of republicanism in the country.

That Deuba has become hundred percent attentive in this regard becomes amply evident from his latest speech wherein he says "the talks are crucial for both and that if the talks failed would bring in disasters for the Maoists as well for the nation".

The disasters about which Deuba is hinting is tentatively clear to all informed citizenry. This means that both will exercise their powers to the hilt in order to accomplish their avowed goals. For the government, the talks mean bringing in or seducing the militants to join the main political stream and serve the nation in a manner other political actors were doing at the moment. The establishment wishes concurrently that the talks succeed and the nation takes a sigh of relief.

On the other hand, the Maoists long for extracting higher political concessions indeed. While their demand for the republicanism in Nepal remains intact, the insurgents will perhaps feel satisfied at this juncture if the government agreed for the formation of an "interim government" that will comprise among others their own men in the said set up. However, Prachanda's fresh statements do indicate that the Maoists will press the government very hard at time of the negotiations come what may.

Whether by design or otherwise, Comrade Prachanda has once again said in an interview granted to the Associated Press recently that "there was no future of monarchy in Nepal. In essence, after the Royal massacre (implied) of June 1, the sympathy and the respect what the Nepali people had in their hearts for the monarchy has totally wiped out".

The fresh interview of Prachanda might crate troubles of Himalayan magnitude for Sher Bahadur Deuba for he can't tolerate such utterances made against the ruling monarch. Under such situation how Deuba's men will initiate the talks with the insurgents at the table is not very hard to imagine.

By a way of reference, Prachanda in the same interview has alleged that "India has from the very beginning of the insurgency remained against it and such overtures do interfere in Nepalese politics". He goes on to say that "if the Maoists one day form government in Nepal would definitely not affect Nepal-India ties rather our bilateral relations will continue on the principles of the observance of equality and national independence". (See Janadesh weekly dated 28 August, 2001).

Notably, it is for the first time that Comrade Prachanda has hinted that should they come to power could "'establish" a "working relation" with neighboring India. Meaning loaded expression indeed.

Be that as it may, the Maoists have agreed to attend the talks scheduled for tomorrow. The time and the venue have been kept a guarded secret, which is only but natural. Both know their limitations and concurrently also remain aware of each other's "political constraints".

Intellectuals do hope that both the sides must respect each other's "susceptibilities" and facilitate the talks in order to have a safe landing for both. Failing in this regard might suddenly disturb the political situation of the nation and could press some seen and unseen powers to jump onto the scene thus creating more chaos in the country.

Perhaps both understand the meaning underneath.

-Deuba opens Pandora's Box-
New land ceiling scheme might irritate Teraians

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has definitely opened the Pandora's box. He has definitely invited wrath from all possible quarters indeed.

This means that he will have to fight with different forces, seen and unseen, at various fronts.

For example, the incumbent Prime Minister is deeply engaged in convincing the Maoists insurgents to shun violence and come to the main political stream and enrich the nation with their gained "revolutionary expertise". However, the insurgents are yet far from coming to terms as per Deuba's wishes. Albeit they have come to the table.

Secondly, Deuba all of a sudden created ripples in the otherwise peaceful atmosphere in the Terai plains when he through his "revolutionary" steps preferred to bring into effect a new ceiling in the lands. This has definitely worried the land owning class in the Terai plains to the extent that the NSP and the RPP have disrupted the proceedings of the House since eight days or so in protest to Deuba's fresh overtures regarding the land ceiling.

The gravity of the situation becomes self evident when one is reminded of the recent utterances of some of the NC, and the UML lawmakers belonging to the Terai constituency wherein they all have threatened their own parties of dire consequences should their parties push the Deuba land ceiling initiatives in the parliament and make efforts to get it approved.

In essence, the lawmakers from Terai plains have even told their party bosses that they might even "resign" from their respective parties should the proposed initiative assumed the force of law in the near future.

Some Terai enthusiasts in the parliament even have told that if this initiative came into effect without caring their sensitivities might lead to a situation when no one from the hills would be voted to power at time of the elections.

This means that the Teraians could create problems in the communal harmony that so happily subsisted in between the Madhesis and the Pahadis.

Not very surprisingly, the Terai lawmakers have come together in protest to the case of the land ceiling caring little about their party-affiliations. Interesting phenomenon indeed.

While on the one hand, the main initiator of this new initiative, the congress, has itself landed in trouble for its own Terai MPs have revolted against their own party-government program, on the other the UML too has been cut down to its size when its own MPs from Terai plains expressed their anger over the new step on land ceiling.

In essence, looking at the very mood of the Teraians and more so of the lawmakers from that part, it becomes tentatively clear that the government will have either to use force to contain their would be threat or at best effect certain changes in its land ceiling criteria that satisfied the Teraians.

Failing to do so might destabilize the entire Terai much to the discomfiture of the Deuba establishment.

In fact, Deuba should have concentrated his entire efforts on Maoists issue firstly and could have later tried his "revolutionary" steps regarding the new land ceiling schemes.

How Deuba comes out of this imbroglio will have to be watched.

Deuba's efforts must now concentrate on how to continue with the sort of communal harmony what had been in and among the Teraians since long whether they belonged to Pahadi or Madhesi communities. It is here that Deuba's political acumen will now be tested.

Academics to discuss illegal trade of artworks

Kathmandu: The Nepalese government officials will be studying how to combat the illegal trade in stolen artworks from Nepal at a one day symposium that is scheduled for this Thursday, 30 August, it is stated by the Kathmandu based office of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, UNESCO.

The police, customs officers, cargo shippers and other stakeholders will participate the symposium.

The meeting is a joint initiative of the ministry of Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation's department of Archaeology and UNESCO/Kathmandu supported by Nepal Tourism Board.

The theft of statues and carvings from streets and historic buildings of Nepal has been a problem for many years. Many of the street stolen pieces eventually appear on the international art market where collectors pay high prices for Nepal's glorious cultural heritage.

The purpose of the symposium, say organizers, is to raise awareness so that appropriate steps could be taken to prevent such illegal thefts and also that action could be taken to recover artworks through the official channels once they, that is the art works, have left the Nepalese soil.

Internationally, the UNESCO has taken the lead in developing legal instruments and conventions to address the problem of the illicit traffic, and its networks of contacts and access to diplomatic channels have assisted in the recovery of such stolen properties on many occasions in the past.

At the Thursday meet, specialists from UNESCO and the national authorities will discuss the current situation and the measures available to combat the trade, a panel of distinguished academics and commentators will discuss what new actions were needed to improve the situation in this regard.

Posters and postcards will be distributed as part of a public awareness campaign and it is also hoped that a new declaration of intent will be issued at the end of the meet.

UML-ML unification talks fail?

Kathmandu: Efforts aimed at trying for the "reunification" of the UML and the ML has gone presumably to the dogs at least for the time being.

What hurdles and hitches suddenly disturbed the unification process is still unclear. What is also unimaginable at this juncture, as to which force on earth summarily derailed the entire unification process which was already in its advanced stage.

However, what has been given to understand to the lay men is that the two parties sharply "differed" on counts of United States of America and India.

While the ML led by Bam Dev Gautam insisted that the UML henceforth treat US as an imperialist power and India as expansionist.

The UML flatly rejected this proposition of the ML.

This means that the two parties continue to stick to their declared diametrically opposite stances regarding their observations on looking the US and India.

Not only this, informed sources claim that the ML and the UML also greatly differed on the count of Mahakali Integrated treaty signed with India some where around 1996.

The ML side apparently suggested the UML to accept the fact that the signing of the Mahakali treaty with India then was a blunder. The UML summarily rejected MLs proposition.

Insiders of the UML at time of the signing of the Mahakali treaty opined that most of the members who quit the then UML and later formed the ML did so only because they felt that the treaty was an unequal one and that India will benefit more than Nepal.

What could be fairly said that for reasons unknown to the local intellectuals that the UML split then revolved round the Mahakali treaty.

To recall, the Mahakali treaty got parliamentary approval at time of Deuba's Premiership.

Interestingly, the news that the ongoing unification talks in between the UML and ML failed have come at a time when the Maoists have come to the table and the UML-Maoists talks in Siliguri also failed for obvious reasons.

A section in the UML continues to possess some sort of allergy with the ML and hence exhibited less interest in the ongoing talks of the unification until recently. That the talks have failed might have consoled that section for declared reasons. However, contrary to those clandestine overtures by some influential leaders of that party, strongman Madhav Nepal's internal preference to bring in about a unification with the ML perhaps facilitated the process of unification which failed ultimately.

Those who have been closely watching UML politics from close quarters opine that Madhav Nepal wishes to compete his nearest rival K.P.Woli in the party and this he can do only if Bam Dev rejoins the mother party.

Conversely, K.P.Woli who is apparently afraid of Bam Dev's potential and stamina perhaps did not give much importance to the unification talks for fear of Mr. Nepal's increased strength should the party decide for unification.

It was in the rumor then that K.P.Woli remained the staunch supporter of the Mahakali treaty with India and those who differed with him were made to quit the party.

Some even say that Madhav Nepal is yet one figure in the UML who too believes that signing of the Mahakali treaty had been a blunder.

Whether these were the politics, which marred the present unification process, or some other moves will definitely come to the open in a month or so.

For the time being, the fact is that the unification talks have failed.

ML leaders view unification talks differently

Kathmandu: The ML as a party appears to be in deep trouble.

The reason behind this trouble is apparently its desire to go in for a unification with the UML.

Sources inside the ML say that the party at the moment possesses three distinct sections whose biased conclusions on a particular political question is boggling the minds of the party leaders.

Firstly, there is a strong section led by Bam Dev itself which prefers reunification with the UML. Those who subscribe to Bam Dev's view are Devi Ojha, Man Kumar Gautam, B.B.Khadayat, Jitendra Dev, Hari Parajuli, Kamal Chaulagain and Balram Banskota.

Equally strong is the section which concludes that ML as a party must remain in existence. This faction is led by ideaologue C.P.Mainali and his supporters were Rishi Kattel, Tanka Karki and Rishi Ram Lumsali.

Observers say that despite this section's claim this group is comfortably weaker than the rest of the groups.

Likewise, there is yet another section in the ML, which opines that if the Maoists join the political mainstream under this system then it would be both desirable and advisable for the ML to embrace the Maoists.

The proponent of this school of thought is no less than the current chairman of the party, Ms. Sahana Pradhan who enjoys support from Siddhi Lal Singh, Ashok Rai, R.K.Mainali, Rajendra Shrestha, Wangche Sherpa, D.B.Shrestha, Mahesh Chaudhary, Yogendra Saha, Naresh Kharel, D.B.Poudel, D.B.Karki, Rakam Chemjong and Hem Raj Rai.

Looking at the numbers that chairman Pradhan enjoys what could be concluded is that the majority in the party prefers to join the Maoists grouping or wish that the latter joins them as would be convenient to both.

However, the Maoists have yet to speak their mind regarding the preference of the ML group led by Ms. Sahana Pradhan.

Nepal-Pak ties discussed at CEDA

Kathmandu: The Pakistani Ambassador to the Kingdom of Nepal, Ms. Fouzia Nasereen, has said that Pakistan-Nepal relationship has to be mutually reinforcing at the bilateral level backed by a common vision for the South Asian development and prosperity as well as restoration of historical links through the north.

Ambassador Nasereen made these remarks at a talk program organized last week by the Center for Economic Development and Administration, CEDA last Thursday.

She also maintained that in the last forty years Pakistan-Nepal relations had evolved in a sustained manner notwithstanding the vicissitudes of time and that each country was unique in so far as "systems and their adaptability were concerned and hence both Pakistan and Nepal will have to chart their own courses in their own suitable ways.

Welcoming the Pakistani dignitary, President Abullaish maintained that Nepal-Pakistan ties have grown in the recent years to the satisfaction of both the countries. He, however, suggested both the governments to do the needful so that the academics of both the countries could exchange their views on contemporary regional and international events.

Director at the CEDA, Dr. Pitambar Rawal, gave the salient features of the center and expressed his hope that in the future the bilateral relation will attain new heights. Dr. Rawal saw many areas wherein Pakistan could be of significant support to Nepal. According to Rawal, cotton production and harnessing of water resources were the two areas where Nepal could benefit from Pakistani experience.

Chairman of the Nepal-SAARC Journalists Forum and the chief editor of the Telegraph weekly N.P.Upadhyaya, assured the CEDA authorities that the Forum would in the future arrange such similar interactions with other SAARC residential Ambassadors.

Professor Prem Sharma conducted the proceedings of the talk program.

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