In depth Analysis

Ominous signs demand change!

Kathmandu: The streets are heating up. Opposition parties outside the parliament have been paralyzing Kathmandu traffic on the ruse of opposing government's ban on twenty-year-old public vehicles. Bhaktapur's NMKP has imposed a virtual traffic ban there. The party has only one member in the parliament. The ML particularly has been drawing UML cadres in the streets and the general consensus is that the Maoists have already jumped into the fray. Expectation is that they await a spark carry the movement by next week. Parliament is paralyzed. Parliamentary opposition concentrates on government's Lauda affair and the opposition parties there have coalesced to disrupt the sessions. The government party is itself at a crossroad. Whether to support an anticipated no confidence motion by abstaining from vote and risk disciplinary action or toe the Girija line is a major make or break decision.

These choices are not easy for both the Girija congress and their Deuba rivals. Both are aware of the disadvantages in precipitating a permanent break in the party. Both are equally aware of the costs of inaction as well. The Prime Minister's advantage from government is reflected in the ultimate capitulation of Dr. Ram Saran Mahat whose "sickness"' has apparently been overcome to allow himself the ultimate assumption of the post of the Finance Minister in Girija babu's cabinet. Minister designate Khum Bahadur Khadka has yet to bend.

It is these indicators that provide adequate glimpse into the contradictions in the congress. The Deuba lobby says that they are intact. Girija babu's supporters say that they are not. Verification will be possible only in parliament. One speculation is that ample indicators will be provided in the role of the congress parliamentary party when government introduces the Ordinance bill for parliamentary approval. The UML, which has control of the Upper House and opposes these bills, is sure to return them to the Lower House. What the Lower House will do then will determine the role of the Girija opposition in the parliamentary congress.

This, of course, is if the UML no confidence move is not introduced earlier to the bills, the manner with which parliamentary sessions are being disrupted suggest possibilities otherwise. If the UML motion is introduced, the Deuba lobby will have a different role to play. It is this section that reminds others of the manner with which the absence of certain congressmen in parliament made possible the toppling of Prime Minister Deuba. Reminders are purposively made of the absence of any disciplinary action then. The Girija lobby on the other hand insists that congress Chairman and Prime Minister Girija Koirala is in no mood for leniency. They cite the fact that disciplinary action was taken on rebel congress candidates in the last election. They also insist that Girija babu has secured for himself a decisive mandate at the Pokhara convention in both the party general assembly and the central committee to deter any independent action on part of the Deuba lobby. The Deuba lobby however, openly speculates whether the Prime Minister would risk the handicap of taking action on as many as forty members of parliament and virtually emasculate himself and his party majority.

It is these speculations that will unfold into reality in the coming weeks or else render the winter session of parliament meaningless.

Meanwhile, politics is increasingly being diverted from parliament. Much meaning is being given to His Majesty the King's China visit. Also former Prime Minister Kirti Nidhi Bista leaves for China next week. Incidentally, former Prime Minister Marich Man Singh-Shrestha was received well at Nepali gatherings in the United States. All things put together these are considered ominous signal indeed.

Strip News:
Will Koirala yield to Opposition demand?

Kathmandu: The strong determination with which practically all the political parties in opposition have converged at one point with single agenda and that being the summary ouster of Prime Minister Koirala from his current chair apparently give the impression that this round of action the parties in opposition will not "settle for less".

The very unique convergence of various political parties for the Prime Minister's ouster at one place is perhaps the event of its own kind in the democratic history of Nepal.

That the opposition forces would in the process bring the heaven down to earth appears imminent. However, the process to bring Koirala down will not that be easy as some one might have predicted for obvious reasons.

Firstly, the Prime Minister is an elected one and commands majority in the party that is the congress. Secondly, he concurrently enjoys the support of "Lauda sort of jumbo cabinet" which has explicitly been given that shape and size to thwart nefarious designs both from the congress rival and opposition quarters.

Thirdly, Koirala's opposition well within his own party that is clearly led by Deuba is not that strong as we have been given to understand by anti-Koirala media.

Fourthly, the UML, which is leading this "relieve Koirala crusade", is held under suspect by other political parties who have joined this campaign at the moment. Parties other than the UML in the past possess the bitter experience in having been left in the cold by the UML when some clandestine deals between the establishment and the party have benefited the former. These smaller parties still possess some reservations on the very motives and the intentions of the UML leaders. However, "the situation as it has obtained in the country due to the Lauda scandal forces us all to associate ourselves with the UML-the main opposition or else we would have followed some other options for the ouster of the Prime Minister", said a RPP man on conditions of anonymity to this scribe Tuesday morning.

Fourthly, even if the Deuba lobby prefers to side with the opposition demand and abstains from voting on Ordinance bill, what is the guarantee that Koirala will not seduce some of the key Deuba men prior to voting on that said bill through the use of notorious 3Ms-media, money and muscle. In essence the 3Ms are very popular in Nepal and at times have already exhibited its miracles if one were to recall.

And finally, what is the guarantee that the opposition forces that have clinged together and has become a formidable force against Koirala this round will continue to do so for long. After all some key men or some chameleons in smaller parties too could be seduced through the use of the infamous 3M. Such events too have happened in the past.

Add to this the likelihood of a middle type of formula "you save me, I'll open the state coffer" arrangement. If this happens then that might ultimately weaken the whole effort of the opposition and the people will ultimately feel cheated. Such arrangements too have happened in the past.

Fortunately at the grass-root level, the people have taken the Lauda scandal in a very grave manner. Even if the parties now demanding Koirala's resignation deter from their current standpoints, the mass will perhaps not let the things go unattended. Perhaps after 1990 agitation, it is the first time that the people have become suddenly alert to the extent that they might come to the streets come what may. Fears are being expressed in some quarters as to what would happen if the Maoists join the people in the streets?

Now looking at the manner the opposition parties boycotted Monday's session in the parliament and their avowal that they will continue to disrupt the proceedings of the Lower House in the same fashion in the days ahead forces any one to conclude that the days ahead in national politics would be more chaotic than expected.

"Unless the opposition parties uses constitutional methods for the Prime Minister's ouster and succeed, why should a Premier who commands majority in the parliament should resign and that too under the threat of the street agitation", said a congressman close to the Koirala camp.

However, constitutional provisions shield Koirala from any threats of the opposition and thus could be said that he is safe.

This notwithstanding, since the people have become sovereign, they can change the very fate of the nation and in the process might prefer violent methods for the ouster of not only Koirala but even others who have been recorded as number one corrupts.

Dangerous days ahead indeed.

Box News:
Why Prachanda not interested in talks?

Kathmandu: The Maoists celebrated their sixth anniversary Monday evening rather in a restrained fashion contrary to what had been given to understand by the media close to the Maoists quarters prior to the event.

This notwithstanding, the insurgents kept themselves engaged in two way firing with the police men at various places in the country say media reports.

The districts that saw the two-way firings in between the rebels and the police men Monday evening were Solukhumbu, Rolpa, Rukum, Pyuthan, Jajarkot, Salyan, Gorkha, Kalikot, Nuwakot and some sporadic events of clashes could be noticed in the Kathmandu district as well.

At some places in western region, the insurgents held torch demonstrations to mark their sixth anniversary. However, no major casualties so far have come to notice albeit some precious lives were lost in Achham district when an explosive explodes early morning of Monday.

Two sets of equally powerful theories are abounding with regard to the violent explosion that occurred in Achham district. One set believes that the policemen spread the ambush themselves to take care of the Maoists rebels. However, the police sources deny it to have been done by their men.

Be that as it may, on the eve of the sixth anniversary of their declaration of the People's War, the Maoists supremo Prachanda has issued a statement in which he "highly evaluates the gains achieved by the insurgency over the past five years".

The Maoists supremo in his statement has vowed that the revolution that is on will continue for long.

However, what is surprising in the statement this round is the conspicuous absence of the Maoists' desire for a meaningful "dialogue" with the government. To recall, Prachanda's previous statement had stated that his party was "ready" for the talks with the government provided some of their minimum conditions were met with prior to the proposed talks.

Intellectuals here remain surprised over the sudden change in tone and the content of the message released by the insurgents on the eve of their sixth anniversary.

Some intellectuals wish to analyze this change in their own fashion.

Firstly, it could be that the Maoists have concluded that their insurgency was becoming popular among the common massess.

Secondly, the government with which they intended to go in for talks is being pressured from all directions and hence the establishment under Koirala had become pretty weak. The Maoists might have concluded that since the establishment has already become weak so it was simply futile to initiate talk with those who were already counting their last breath.

Thirdly, the Maoists leaders also might have felt that since the Ordinance Bill brought for the formation of the Armed Police Force tentatively aimed against their insurgency were being properly taken care by the opposition parties in parliament and hence nothing to panic.

In fact, the whole of the opposition parties has stood against the bill mentioned above. An added advantage for the Maoists albeit that came indirectly in their favor.

Summing up all these factors, what could be safely said that Comrade Prachanda deliberately avoided reiterating his favoring "talks" with the establishment in order to come at an amicable solution to the overly stretched imbroglio that has taken thousands of precious Nepali lives.

Does this mean that the insurgency has gained in strength in the recent days? Apparently yes. An indication to this effect has been stated in the statement that those camps, which acted like their "base" in the districts now, would be given permanent status, which means that those bases and the surrounding areas will be totally under their command.

What is interesting is that Comrade Prachanda has expected the "same sympathy and encouragement" from the masses which they received in the previous years.

What is for sure is that the crises in the ruling party have emboldened the Maoists leaders and their insurgency, to say the least.

Miscellaneous:
How long Khadka will support Deuba?

Kathmandu: The unilateral manner in which Prime Minister Koirala expanded his cabinet apparently has boomeranged.

Indications to this effect were soon made available by some of the ministers included in the cabinet by Prime Minister Koirala who either summarily rejected to take oath of office at the Royal Palace or dilly-dallied in presenting themselves at the palace ceremony.

While Deuba camp's key-man, Khum Bahadur Khadka outrightly rejected the ministerial berth on the pretext that the Prime Minister did not consult his long time associate K.P.Bhattarai prior to finalizing the names of the ministerial list as agreed between him and the Prime Minister, Dr. Ram Saran Mahat too did not attend the palace ceremony on grounds of his sudden "stomach" problems.

This apart, one minister Palten Gurung expressed his utter dismay over the announcement of his name in the ministry and very reluctantly took the oath of office.

These three separate incidents are loaded with meaning if analysed carefully.

Add to this the bulk of the dissidents belonging to the Deuba camp exhibited their honesty and togetherness with their present leader by not only rejecting the lucrativeministerial offers from the Prime Minister but also managed "mental torture" for Koirala by successfully seducing some of the would be ministers not to attend the palace ceremony.

This means that the Deuba camp still remained determined to signal Koirala that unless he quits from one of the posts, their crusade would continue sine die.

However, Dr. R.S. Mahat only yesterday joined the cabinet, which might have consoled Prime Minister Koirala a little bit. This notwithstanding, the non-participation of minister designate Khadka in the cabinet continues to irritate Koirala because it is this Khadka who is still considered to pocket some half a dozen NC lawmakers who obey Khadka orders like anything.

It is not Khadka but his numerical strength and the clout which he possesses among a section of the NC parliamentarians that is creating problems for Koirala, said a NC activist close to Khadka.

"'He will not yield to Koirala pressures or for that matter lucrative offers this time come what may"', added the same source.

It is perhaps this strength of Khadka that is being tactfully utilized by Deuba should a crisis grip the party of the sort of the fresh one related to the no confidence motion pushed against the party prime minister and president.

Intellectuals say that Khadka as a person in the past has exhibited a character like a chameleon and hence could push his legs towards the other camp should some one come with offers that takes proper care of Khadka's latent and internal desires.

The fact is that whosoever bags the sympathy of Khadka in one's favor could afford to fight with his or rival easily. Whether Deuba succeeds in keeping him all along or Koirala will seduce the key man in his favor will in essence determine the course of congress politics in the days ahead.

In the meantime, the opposition parties demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Koirala have reportedly talked with Deuba and sought his support in relieving Koirala from the chair. Deuba has not yet decided whether he should join the opposition movement at this juncture or to support the opposition moves at a time when they would push the no confidence motion against the Prime Minister.

Unquestionably, if Deuba so decides and supports the anti-Koirala movement, the fate of the Prime Minister becomes predictable. In that case what will happen to the party? Definitely it will split. Will Deuba go to that extent? Perhaps not.

Kenichi Ohasi is new WB Chief

Kathmandu: The World Bank Country office last week arranged a brief ceremony at Hotel Yak and Yeti to introduce its newly appointed Country Director, Kenichi Ohasi.

Prominent media men of the country attended the ceremony.

Mr. Kenichi was appointed to this position with effect from December 17, 2000.

Mr. Ohasi, who is popularly known as Ken to his colleagues at the Bank will expectedly take up residence in Kathmandu in Summer 2001. However, he will make extended his visits to Nepal before then.

Mr. Ohasi, a Japanese nation, joined the Bank in 1979 as Economist in the Treasurer's Department where he was involved in the management of the Bank's portfolio of liquid assets.

In 1986, Ohasi was transferred to the East Asia and Pacific Region as senior economist in the Malaysia, Papua-New Guinea and South Pacific Country Division.

An economist by training, Mr. Ohasi holds a BA degree from Tokyo University and a doctoral degree from the Cornell University.

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