In depth Analysis

Several constitutional crises in the making !

Kathmandu: The warning by 38 congress MPs to Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala not to go to elections carries meaning. Prime Minister Girija had sought to elections after tumult in the House in his two previous occasions. His first term was marked, moreover, with a split of opinions in his own party that brought the constitution to a brink of crises. The strength of the congress majority prompted the elections at that time despite the spectacle of sizeable number of his party-men appealing to the King along with the communist opposition to seek other options. His second term was a coalition with the UML opposition that prompted the mid term polls. Once again Girija babu has his parliamentary majority but 38 of his own majority have publicly sought solutions outside the elections. This, after the Girija camp has publicly threatened the polls to discipline congress dissidents.

This is yet another continuous reminder of the perpetual state of crisis in the constitution that embroils the politics of the country. The other again, is the fact that the winter session of parliament has yet to take up a business two weeks after its opening. The Left have taken up the Lauda air issue stating that it will not compromise their demands for a Girija resignation. All parliamentary parties, except the Sadbhavana for obvious reasons, have forged an alliance on this matter and are whipping up street support. Friday is to see their first street rally on the matter. This, despite, the congress party majority in parliament. The constitution again does not provide an answer to this development.

His Majesty King Birendra by referring the citizenship bill to the Supreme Court for interpretation has made public yet another constitutional crisis in the making. The citizenship bill tabled by the congress and passed by the house of representatives is a confusion all its own. Both the UML and the RPP that voted the bill through now retract their support and confess that they "slipped" on the bill. Whether the bill should have been included in the Finance Bill is an issue all its own. The finance bill is a regular affair to be endorsed by the house after the finance committee approves it given the majority the government has. Whether it should have been introduced separately is just one matter. The Upper House where the congress is not in majority is known to have pointed out this anomaly. The more intricate constitutional issue is provided on two accounts. The constitution is said to be silent on the introduction of separate bill distinct from the finance bill as house business. Moreover, the constitution has mentioned the citizenship act and opinion is, thus, that a constitutional amendment is needed prior to the introduction of the bill. The fact that the congress has once again issued a statement that HM's judicial opinion is "unfortunate" reflects the near permanence of constitutional crises in the country.

And then there is the continuous permanence of Maoists' activities. Comrade Prachanda who previously has announced his presence in Kathmandu by February, now has declared himself the Chairman of the party. Maoists incidence all over the country insist upon its significant presence. Curiously, the constitutional government appears bereft of any programme of action. Nor is the body politic discussing the matter in public any more. One significant direction could have reflected at least government opinion. The introduction of the act regarding the institution of the Armed Police Force which came by Royal Ordinance merely a few days prior to the winter session has yet to be taken up for business in the house. Indeed, the constitutional process as such on day to day business appears stalled totally outside the administrative system.

It is amidst this limbo that His Majesty King Birendra left for China this week where the northern neighbor is feting him with significant gestures. He is the chief guest at the China sponsored Asia-Pacific Conference at Baoa, China. Observers also note that his trip was preceded here by the first ever visit of a Chinese Defence Minister.

The connections made result in considerable speculation.

Dark clouds hovering over Nepali sky

Kathmandu: The question is not whether Prime Minister Koirala resigns voluntarily. Even the question is not whether the entire solid-rock opposition will be able to force Koirala to resign through their combined strength. However, the question is undoubtedly whether Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala will be able to withstand the "blizzard" that is already in the "making" and could save his beloved chair or not?

The answers to these questions could be both ways.

For example, it is this country which changed the previous system through the simple use of demonstrations. It is this country that witnessed during the 1990 popular movement some powerful demonstrations in selected places like Kathmandu, Biratnagar, Janakpur and Pokhara which caused the collapse of the erstwhile regime. To sum up, a determined, powerful demonstration with forceful lectures against the Prime Minister will easily force the Prime Minister to resign. This is comparatively an easy task for bringing out such a change in Nepal which other nations' in the region perhaps take longer and have to sacrifice good number of precious people's lives.

This means that the blizzard, an artificial creation of the entire opposition forces, will do away with Prime Minister Koirala and his regime very soon.

Even if he survives the opposition onslaught made against him and his chair, the government under him will further lose its legitimacy and the credibility factor perhaps even at this stage remains at its lowest ebb.

Whether the opposition demands of a Girija resignation were a constitutional or an unconstitutional one, the fact is that the entire combined strength has converged at one point in an unprecedented manner. This very much reminds one of the 1990 days when the entire opposition of the Panchayat regime had converged and possessed one slogan: collapse of the Panchayat regime. The regime then could not withstand the internal as well the international pressure and finally yielded.

However, the case in point here is rather different. Fortunately, the combined opposition has simply demanded the resignation of Koirala but not the collapse of the system itself.

To push the Prime Minister further to the wall, the opposition parties- represented in the parliament or not- have decided to arrange a mammoth rally at the Open Theater, Tundikhel this Friday. Undoubtedly this gigantic rally with fiery speeches against the incumbent Prime Minister will add fuel to the fire. It would act like a catalyst for others as well to understand about the gravity of the situation arising out of the Lauda air scandal in which the Prime Minister is himself reportedly involved while procuring the most infamous Lauda air.

It is altogether a different matter as to which violent forces will later contribute their mite in flaring up the already explosive situation.

Intellectuals suspect that at a later stage the Maoists insurgents could join the forces, which have at the moment shouldered the responsibilities of dislodging Prime Minister Koirala.

To sum up, the Friday demonstration and the events that will follow hence will perhaps determine the fate of Koirala and his regime. However, what is for sure is that the "system" remains prone to any powerful intervention from some powerful quarters should the Friday blizzard catapult in a major conflict in between the two almost warring rivals that is the ruling Girija congress and the combined strength of the opposition.

Those who have some knowledge of Koirala's haughtiness and lust for power will perhaps conclude that he will not resign under duress come what may. This means that the clash between the two opposing rivals is imminent.

Dark clouds hovering over Nepali sky, indeed.

A common forum articulating different issues from Asian perspective is essential

-HM King Birendra, Boao, China

Kathmandu: Below we produce the full text of His Majesty King Birendra's address to the inaugural ceremony of the Forum for Asia held in Boao, Hainan, China on 27 February, 2001-Chief editor:

Mr. Chairman, His Excellency President Jiang zemin; Excellencies; Distinguished delegates, Ladies and gentlemen:

It is indeed a pleasure for me to address this august gathering in the serene environment of this beautiful city of Boao. I would also like to take this occasion to thank the Government of the People's Republic of China for inviting us to this Opening Ceremony marking the establishment of the Forum for Asia-an organisation, which, I believe, has immense potentials in reflecting the aspirations of the peoples of Asia.

Mr. Chairman, the countries of Asia, we know, are diverse in their cultures and traditions and are proud inheritores of some of the world's ancient and enduring civilisations. It is also true our continent has vast human and natural resources. Yet, there still exists disparity in the level and pace of development between the regions. As we enter this millennium, mindful of the rapidly changing world in the context of the IT revolution, globalisation and privatisation, it has now become incumbent upon us to chart a definite course to reduce this disparity and achieve equitable and sustainable development so that the future generations can live with dignity and honour.

We are indeed happy to note that co-ordinated efforts have been initiated towards forging greater regional co-operation amongst nations in the fields of human resource development, trade and investment, as well as, in the areas of science and technology. In my own region, South Asia, it has been our endeavour, since 1985, to enhance economic co-operation, social progress and cultural development through the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation-SAARC. My own country, Nepal, has also opened her economy with a view to developing and sharing resources-like the waters from the snow-capped Himalayas-for the collective benefit of all the peoples of our region.

In the past few decades, we have seen remarkable economic and social transformation the world over. The process of globalisation has gained momentum crossing all geographical barriers and opening new avenues for trade and market economy. This phenomenon has provided countries with opportunities for economic and social growth, yet it is not without difficulties. For many countries, they are daunting and challenging. Such countries wish to develop the capacity to integrate themselves within the global mainstream. Protecting their interests as they move ahead should be given due consideration.

A common forum, founded for and by the peoples of Asia, articulating different issues from the Asian perspective is essential in helping us to utilise and maximise the positive aspects of the prevailing world order in the collective interest of our nations and region. We are happy to not that such an organisation is finally being set up here in Boao. We would like to congratulate all those who had the vision and took the initiative to establish this Forum. We wish to see it develop in to a center of excellence and succeed in realising its mission by developing itself as a platform for voicing the concerns and aspirations of the Asian countries and in enhancing co-operation among ourselves, both regionally and globally, in a true spirit of mutual understanding.

We take this opportunity to thank the organisers for both the warm welcome and the hospitality extended to us, as well as, for the impressive arrangements made to conduct this ceremony. We wish this Forum every success in its endeavours."

Congress rifts embolden opposition

Kathmandu: A very popular Nepali proverb says that when a cow slips down a steep ravine what could be at best be done is to pray for her departed soul.

This proverb at the moment fits into the case of the Nepali Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala who matches with the cow of the above-mentioned saying.

Even his own party men appear reluctant in supporting him and his cause for obvious reasons.

The tragedy with Koirala has been that even his close aides, in the party or in the cabinet, whisper at unofficial gatherings and suspects his or his families deep involvement in the Lauda air deal.

Add to this the total negative posture acquired by the declared enemies from within the party led by Deuba.

At a congress party committee meeting hurriedly summoned Monday afternoon by the deputy prime minister Ram Chandra Poudel was a total failure as most of the members attending the meeting suggested the Prime Minister to resign and help bring normalcy in the parliament and in the nation as well.

Understandably those who championed this modest suggestion belonged to Deuba camp.

Conversely, some of the key Koirala men at the meeting lashed out their own members who had been "weakening" the Koirala stand of not resigning by offering clandestine support to the cause of the opposition parties.

Undoubtedly, Gobinda Raj Joshi, R.C.Poudel and Arjun Narsingh K.C spoke in favor of Koirala.

Koirala key men also held the view that since the party at the apex level were fragmented as a result of which might have emboldened the opposition to attack the party through the streets and by boycotting the proceedings of the parliament as well.

" If we all unite at this critical juncture and face the challenge posed by the opposition jointly, the opposition will change their present adamant stances", commented a Koiralaite at the meeting.

Retorting to this comment, a Deuba man hinted the other side that the best solution to this overly stretched issue would be the timely resignation of the Prime Minister.

Interestingly enough, neither Prime Minister Koirala not K.P.Bhattarai attended the meeting summoned by Minister Poudel. The DPM, R.C.Poudel at the moment finds himself very comfortable with the Prime Minister.

Telegraph adds: Former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba also did not attend the meeting called by DPM Poudel.

His non-participation in the meeting assumes importance in the current scheme of things.

Does all these sad events suggest that Prime Minister Koirala is losing his support base in the party? Perhaps yes!

French TV (CFI) Asia chief arriving Nepal

Kathmandu: A French TV journalist of international standing is arriving Nepal this Thursday.

Ms. Sophie Le' Bars is at the moment associated with the Canal Francaise International or other wise the CFI- a popular Television channel in France.

Ms. Sophie is the head of the Asia division of the CFI.

The French television journalist during her weeklong tenure in Kathmandu is expected to pay courtesy call on some of the prominent media men who head the government owned media institutions such as Nepal Television and the likes.

The CFI, to recall, had initiated some contacts with the Nepal Television a few years back. However, what progresses were achieved since then has not been made public.

Ms. Sophi has come at a time when Nepal's Prime Minister is all set to pay an official visit to her country. However, the fate of the Nepalese Prime Minister continues to be in a limbo. The opposition is demanding Prime Minister Koirala's resignation on his alleged involvement in the Lauda Air procurement procedures.

Prachanda is Chairman now; prefers dialogue

Kathmandu: The former all powerful General Secretary of the Maoists insurgency, Comrade Prachanda alias Pushpa Kamal Dahal has declared himself to be the Chairman of the party.

This he did at the recently concluded party's second general convention, which was held in Rolpa.

Rolpa is a district where the Maoists insurgents rule the roost.

After the conclusion of the second convention the party headed by Prachanda has concluded that in Nepal there were not any real communist parties.

Most surprisingly, the Maoists party has now renounced its former demand of having a constituent assembly. Instead the party now prefers to push its fresh wish for the formation of an "interim government" at the center. Unbelievably, the party indirectly has expressed its desire to participate in such a government should it come into existence in the near future.

Notably, the Maoists too have concluded that the situation in the country had already become chaotic and that to bring about a solution to the existing anomalies the insurgents were ready to initiate dialogues with the representatives of the King, the government, the congress, the UML.

The fact is that the Maoists have wished to come to the table for a dialogue with those political forces who remained instrumental in the framing of the constitution now in force.

The statement released by the party, however, remains silent on its reaction to the formation of the Armed Police Force by the Koirala regime.

Significantly, the statement stresses the need to coordinate the vast and important changes seen in the world in the recent years with the strategies of the long-term people's war and People's armed revolution. The statement also concludes that no any guaranteed model of the proletariat revolution could now be developed in the changed context of today.

The statement issued on the occasion of the second general convention of the party, however, remains tight-lipped regarding the status of Comrade Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai-one of the key ideologue of the Maoists movement.

Undenyingly, the fresh statement from the quarter of the insurgency is a changed one compared to its previous ones.

Remarkably, the insurgents have yet again wished to come to the dialogues. It is perhaps time that the responsible quarters read in between the lines from the statement.

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