In depth Analysis

Fissures woo Maoists’ response!

Kathmandu: There are two camps in the Nepali congress and the one is that is being led by former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is gaining. So much may be gleaned from the last Battle Royale in the congress parliamentary party where the no confidence motion against Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala was diffused by a walkover from the Deuba camp on the issue of the ruling Girija congress not acknowledging Deuba demands for secret balloting on the motion. From 36 in the last parliament, the Deuba numbers had increased to 56 in order to table the motion and the open balloting precipitated vacillation from a handful of voters. So much is real. That a sitting Prime Minister with the clout of the government and party machinery has not been able to prevent such desertions and vacillations bodes ill for Girija babu.

How this is to reflect on the all too important Pokhara convention at the moment remains unclear. What comes out from the highly conciliatory messages from both the sides of democratic practice is that no party within the two camps in the congress is willing to precipitate a permanent fissure in the congress. So much is obvious. However, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala is unlikely to give up his stranglehold over the government and party machinery since it is both that keep him where he is, at the helm of affairs.

Neither is Sher Bahadur Deuba likely to leave his demands for a Girija resignation from either of the two positions, since it is this demand that is registering his gains. The Pokhara convention will legitimize Girija babu’s claim over the party, and hence his government. What is to be of the Deuba opposition?

By most accounts Deuba’s no confidence motion in pre-empted a UML led no confidence motion in parliament. One source has it that a winter session of parliament is likely to see a UML motion tabled. What is to be watched then is whether the Deuba camp will defy the congress party whip. If this emerges, is the Girija camp strong enough to take disciplinary action against the Deuba lobby.

While such scenario may help the Prime Minister pre-empt a split and accommodate Deuba demands after he ensures his preeminence at Pokhara, it may well be that the Pokhara meet will enthuse him even further to provoke the crises once and for all. It is what the Deuba camp will do that thus becomes the key question.

The UML action in the forthcoming session is perhaps a safe bet. But one extra-systemic factor remains unsure still. Even the Telegraph Weekly was not spared an anonymous electronic mail message that the hitherto underground General Secretary of the CPN (Maoists’) is coming to Kathmandu one day prior to National Democracy Day on Falgun 7 that is February 17. This signifies the movement’s gaining strength within Kathmandu valley. Given that it is widely acknowledged that the disturbances witnessed here in the last fortnight had a Maoists component to it, the calculated presence of such Maoists messages does indicate the presence of a program here that is likely to take advantage of further such weaknesses in the current political establishment.

The effort by political establishment this week to seek an overall-all party program favoring the status quo on the plea of ethnic goodwill may be one indicator of current systemic response. It is the Maoist response that is being watched.

Russian Federation wishes to acquire assertive posture hints Ambassador Ivanov

Kathmandu: The de facto inheritor of the former Soviet Union-the Russian Federation under Vladimir Putin appears to have woken from the deep slumber in which it was in for almost a decade or so to find its former super power role and place in the comity of the nations.

In the process the Russian Federation wishes to secure its former heavyweight decisive role in the world affairs by formulating certain measures, internal as well external, which if put into practice will apparently facilitate her new aims and goals.

Indications to these effects were last week, January 5,2001, boldly spelt out by the Kathmandu based Russian Ambassador Vladimir V. Ivanov at a Nepal Council of World Affairs lecture program.

The topic of the lecture series was "Concept of Russian Policy and concrete steps of President Vladimir Putin and His Administration".

Whether the Russian Federation with its dwindling economy at the moment will bag success in its new assertive role or not is a different question. However, the RF Ambassador in Kathmandu made the lecture in an apparently very assertive mood. To add to this, the Chechen issue continues to be its "bleeding wound" at the moment in which it sees the hands of some fanatic elements residing in far flung countries and dubs the whole act as to be the outcome of "international terrorism".

That the RF is all set to find its decisive role in the global politics is best reflected in Ambassador Ivanov’s statement when he says: " Our policy here will proceed from the conviction that a multi-polar world system, one precluding any monopoly or dominance in world affairs of any single power or group of nations, is the best foundation for a stable world and sustained development".

What is more than clear from this statement is , firstly, the RF is deadly against the lone super power role played by the US at the moment more so since the collapse of the USSR and secondly it would rather prefer to go along with a multi-polar world.

This is perhaps a subtle indication to the US that the RF did not accept its present decisive role any more. In other words the RF also wishes to sound the US to accept the existence of a multi-polar world and march ahead for suatained development.

Ambassador Ivanov’s statement also hinted that the past decade in the life of the RF as a State remained very painful in the sense that either its role were totally neglected or underrated by other competent powers in the world scene. "We understood at last how hard it is to get dignity and how precious the dignity of the country is", said the Russian envoy.

This means that the RF under Putin will wish to regain its former dignity come what may. However, Nepali intellectuals wish that the new RF will not copy all the negative sides of the former USSR in the broader interest of its own citizens and the world at large. A tussle of the previous sort between the then USSR and the USA perhaps should not reoccur again.

Highlighting the newly approved Foreign Policy concepts of his country, Ivanov said that it would now be guided by the factors such as, for example, realism, pragmatism, focus on economic aspects, protection of its citizen’s overall interests, reduction in the role of armed force in international relations, sticking to the enhanced role of the UN body and etc.

"Russia’s foreign policy will be linked to the pursuit of national interests in increasingly practical ways, and consistent and if warranted, tough action will be taken to uphold these interests", explained the Ambassador.

However, what sort of tough actions would be in effect in safeguarding its national interests, the envoy did not divulged.

He however made it clear that RF’s relations with Japan, Europe, Asia and Pacific , ASEAN and the nations of South Asia will see a sea change in the years ahead in which RF’s economic interests would be taken into proper account.

"Development of relations of friendship with the leading Asian nations, primarily with China and India constuitutes a major goal for the RF foreign policy in Asia", added the Ambassador.

Regarding RF relations with India, the Ambassador opined that the "traditional" partnership including in "international affairs" would be strengthened to help overcome problems persisting in SA and strengthen stability in the region.

To recall, Russia and India continue to enjoy very best of the relations which got manifested in the recently concluded visit of President Putin to India. However, the fact is that India over these months apparently has been enjoying "honeymoon" like relations with the lone super power-the USA. How these relations will affect the Indo-Russian ties will have to be watched.

"’Russia views the signing by India and Pakistan of the CTBT treaty and their accession to the Non-Proliferation treaty of N-weapons as an important factor of stability in the Asia-Pacific region. It will support the line for the creation of n-free zones in Asia", the Ambassador added.

Regarding RF’s relations with Nepal, Ambassador Ivanov made it amply clear that it would be developed in the "new context" since remarkable changes took place in both RF and Nepal and in the world in the last decade.

Earlier, the NCWA President, Professor Panna Kaji Amatya introduced the Ambassador. Mr. Laxman K.C offered vote of thanks.

(The full text of the speech will be printed in the next issue-chief editor).

Season of ‘tea party’ and ‘dinner’ in congress

Kathmandu: The freshly concluded congress led drama entertained the national population for a while as usual. The fact is that the lay men have become addict to such meaningless drama staged by the congress to the extent that they have started asking as to when such similar show will again entertain them?

Now that the Deuba motion of no confidence against his former mentor Koirala has already gone to the dogs, let us examine how it so happened and what could be other Deuba moves in the days ahead in his avowed goal of unseating his arch political rival-Koirala who is at the moment President of the party and the Prime Minister of the country.

Regarding the point as to how Deuba had to see the already predicted defeat at time of the election last week on the motion, it could be said that even Deuba close supporters did not dare to get themselves exposed in front of Koirala for obvious reasons.

Firstly, they might have thought that Koirala continues to possess both carrot and stick which could elevate them to power if one sided with him or conversely penalise capping totally their future prospects in the party.

It could also be that the Deuba deserters might have concluded that till Koirala remains in power, no force on earth could destabilise the latter come what may.

Thirdly, the black brief-case power apparently also has worked to a greater extent say media reports.

Finally, there could have been some tacit understanding in between K.P and G.P to avert the crisis in which the congress was in for the moment.

Of all the possible arguments, the first and the third one appears to have worked clandestinely.

This means that the personalities who deserted Deuba this round and left him in the cold will perhaps be rewarded some time after the Pokhara convention. And Koirala will do this to ensure his Pokhara victory and keep the Deuba deserters intact with him forcing them to vote for him at Pokhara.

After all, a deserter will not simply desert his or her fast friend unless some sweets were forwarded from the rival camp. This is not unusual in politics and more so in congress politics.

The end result of the congress feud has been that Koirala has forced Deuba to weep jarringly for some time to come.

Intellectuals, however, maintain that if the elections were held as per the demands of Deuba, things would surely have gone in favor of Deuba. Since this was a foregone conclusion, hence the opposite camp vetoed the election to go Koirala’s way that is an open one. This procedure was applied also to ascertain as to whom sided with Deuba in order to serve penalties on them. This cut the prospects of Deuba who opted to go in for a face-saving formula and consequently he and his group boycotted the whole election affair in protest.

Coming to the second part of our analysis on the possible moves Deuba could yet possess under his sleeve against Koirala, what could be said from his fresh utterances is that he will not let Koirala go his desired way.

To bag sympathies from politically biased intellectuals, party workers, media men in his fold and others, Deuba threw a sumptuous dinner Monday evening and sought their support at time of Pokhara convention where he will challenge President Koirala for the congress presidency. This dinner has come just after Koirala threw a tea-party reception to woo his voters and the NC lawmakers who sided with Deuba at time of the fresh congress power snatching game.

The fact is that no one attached to the congress including the parliamentarians could be trusted for long. This is perhaps their own conclusion. So what Deuba would gain from such meaningless dinner is simply intriguing. Yet one must admire his courage that he will see Koirala face to face at Pokhara whose results are almost clear to all including Deuba.

The sinking horse that is Deuba must come to sense and conclude that till Koirala is alive, none of his tricks and tact would work to destabilize his opponent’s rule be it in the party or the government.

More or less, what could be summarized from Koirala’s behavior experienced so far is that until he himself wishes to retire from both the posts, no other personality could dare to unseat him.

Koirala is the party president come Pokhara convention provided he wishes to gift his presidency to any one of his chums. Deuba’s political future after Pokhara will be taken care hopefully by the media close to him.

US financial assistance to Nepali NGOs

Kathmandu: At a recent holiday ceremony U.S. Ambassador Frank distributed 100,000 rupees to ABC/Nepal (represented by Ms. Durga Ghimire, president), 22,200 rupees to Active Women of Nepal (AWON) (represented by Barbara Brown, president), and 100,000 rupees to WOREC (represented by Renu Rajbhandari, chairperson).

The donations represent the proceeds of a charity piano concert held at the Hyatt Hotel in early December, last year.

ABC/Nepal and WOREC will use their donations expectedly for programs aimed at combating women and child trafficking.

Likewise, the AWON will use its donation for 10 additional scholarships for poor rural girls. The following is the picture of the event.

PRAGYA seminar on Maoists movement

Kathmandu: A newly established forum PRAGYA has decided to organize a one day seminar on Maoists Movement in Nepal: Prospects of Peace and implications for Development in a Himalayan State.

The organizers hope that this seminar would, firstly locate the movement in a theoretical context and analyze the patterns on the basis of the information available and updated; secondly, would explore the prospects for negotiation on the basis of the efforts made so far; thirdly, would examine the prospects for peace building and setting up of a conflict resolution mechanism and fourthly to trace down the overall role of revolutionary violence in general and that of the movement itself in particular on the nation’s development process.

In addition to the analytical discussion of the conflict in a professional way, say the organizers of the seminar, the seminar intends to achieve mass education through a broad and open public discussion on the issue and disseminate information on the theme through publication of the seminar deliberations at a later stage.

Talking to the Telegraph, the executive director of the PRAGYA, Mr. Anand Aditya, summarized the rationale of the seminar in his own words: "’ The movement is the first of its kind in the history of Nepal and it has manifested its own characteristics. Its impact for future peace and implications for the overall process of development will thus be difficult to ignore theoretically, academically or even at an applied level. The discussion that follows during the course of the seminar in that context is expected to generate material of considerable value since the seminar is planned to draw together a sizeable group of professional observers, analysts, policy planners and decision makers for discussion.

The date of the seminar is 15 January and the venue is National Administrative Staff College, Lalitpur.

The seminar is taking place at a time when the Koirala led government has almost concluded that the issue warranted use of force instead of dialogues.

Koirala determined to use Armed Police Force against Maoists

Kathmandu: The government led by Prime Minister Koirala is all set to crush the Maoists movement and clandestine preparations in this regard apparently has already been done.

The government’s wish to use the force against the ever growing threat of the insurgents has got a new phillip when King Birendra gave His "approval" recently to the government sponsored bill demanding the right to form the much publicized "Armed Police Force".

The bill already approved by the constitutional monarch will be expectedly brought into use soon as "Ordinance bill", it is learnt from the Home Ministry sources.

The idea is to possess 15 thousand personnel in this armed force of which half will come from the existing police and the military force. Some even expect new 3 thousand recruits from outside in this Armed Force which will mean that this number will be filled from the unemployed NC workers and activists.

The supposed Armed force will remain under the jurisdiction of the Home Ministry and would be used primarily to face the Maoists’ insurgents in the troubled areas and to quell violence’s of other sorts other than those created by the revolutionaries.

The Armed forces thus formed will be stationed at the center, sub-area and the districts, it is contained in the bill.

Informed sources say that the Royal Nepal Army personals are training the men in the force which is yet to take its formal shape.

Analysts remain puzzled over the government’s new tough stance acquired which means that a violent face to face was imminent between the two warring sides-the government an the insurgents.

"This would in all likelihood create terror and chaos in the nation and might pave the way for a sort of civil war like situation ", commented an analyst talking to this scribe over telephone.

"This also means that the government is determined to cap the possibility of resuming the talks with the insurgents in order to sort out the matter peacefully", commented yet another political scientist.

Another set of intellectuals’ express their fear over the possible use of the armed forces in a wanton manner in the pretext of killing the insurgents, which in effect will be killing innocent civilians.

"If this sad event happens then the establishment under Koirala abruptly lose the sympathies of the innocent lay men and instead this lot would prefer to shift their allegiance towards the rebellions", predicted a non-partisan analyst.

The fact is that the formation of this armed force could not be the real solution to the overly stretched Maoists imbroglio. The fact is that only dialogue and dialogue could bring about a substantial change in the Maoists camp.

Unconfirmed reports say that the Maoists possess the strength to face the Military and hence can easily see eye to eye with the force, which has not taken a form.

RF refutes US paper allegation

Kathmandu: The Russian Federation has refuted the allegations of The Washington Post about the possible deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation.

In this connection the RF Ambassador based in Kathmandu says that, "I have the authority to state firmly that no such nuclear weapons were brought to the Baltic fleet. There were none of such weapons at the Naval, Land or Air force bases there. It looks as if rumors were spread to distract attention from the scandal about the use by NATO depleted uranium munitions in the Balkans".

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