In depth Analysis

Political change in Nepal imminent?

Kathmandu: As the political scene shifted to Pokhara with the government media highlighting the party event full scale, speculation regarding victor Girija Prasad Koirala’s effort to retain a united party in action is already underway. This speculation is already fueled by a report circulated here of an American strategic studies’ organization that considers the government party split imminent to the advantage of the "communists" and the "Maoists".

The American Intelligence Institute "STRATFOR" which comes with impeccable international credentials in its January 4, 2001 report, moreover, not only sees the Communists and Maoists’ coming to power in Nepal, it also forecasts a change in the Nepali political system and insists that the country’s strategic location might well invite serious strategic changes of import from Central Asia, South Asia and the Indian Ocean to the Southeast.

Perceiving that the current government malaise arises out of the disputes within the congress, the Austin based ‘STRATFOR’ gives a dim picture of the state of the Nepali economy and the fragility of the social system here which is tantamount to the advantages of the radical Left, namely the Maoists’ which, it insists, controls a large chunk of the country’s landmass.

STRATFOR in its report quotes Nepali media reports in citing the explosive events of the past month in the country. It is on these grounds also that the report builds a case for imminent political change.

Curiously, the American intelligence organization which is also said to reflect American strategic thinking has put the Nepali communist movement in proximity with the Chinese in the North on which basis it states that the developments forecast would be to the advantage of the Chinese and the disadvantage of the Indians as well as American interests in the Indian Ocean. (See strip news in this page for the full text of the STRATFOR).

Crisis in Nepal Could Change Regional Balance?

Kathmandu: As mentioned in the main news, In-depth Analysis, below we print the full text of the STRAFOR findings. The text follows: Chief editor.

Summary: "Dissent in the ranks of Nepal’s ruling party is causing a political crisis, compounded by an increasingly successful Maoist insurgency. The central government controls only about one-fourth of the country, anti-Indian riots and communal violence have broken-out. Change in the political system is likely. And given the isolated nation’s invaluable geo-strategic location, China will gain an advantage- at the expense of Indian interests.

Analysis: Nepalese Prime Minister Girija Koirala barely survived a no-confidence motion initiated against him by factions within his own party, the Nepali Congress, reported the Nepal News January 4.

Deepening dissent within Nepal’s ruling party adds to a serious systemic crisis experienced by the government. If current trends are not changed, they could lead to the governments’ collapse and a possible takeover by Maoist insurgents. This will lead to significant geopolitical changes in the region that will favor China.

A landlocked country, where only tourism matters for international economy, Nepal has a strong geo-strategic value to world powers. The power that stations its space-linked surveillance, intelligence and navigation systems on Nepal’s high mountains gets geo-strategic leverage over several Asian regions, from Central Asia to South-East Asia.

Bordering only China and India, Nepal also offers a geopolitical advantage to whichever takes the upper hand there. Such a situation would be especially dangerous to India, since Nepal’s border is 185 miles from New Delhi. Though major conflict is unlikely in even the distant future, Indian strategists appreciate the military capability China would gain.

Attacking from Nepal would represent a deadly threat to the Indian capital.

Nepal’s developing crisis has political, security, social and economic dimensions. Only recently a Kingdom with medieval rules, Nepal chose a path of multiparty democracy 10 years ago. It became a constitutional monarchy where real policies have been a result of parliamentary compromise between the Nepali Congress and its main opposition, the Nepal Communist Party-Unified Marxist-Leninist.

But last year witnessed a bitter feud within the ruling party that led to the current political crisis. Escalating inter-party rivalry could break the Nepali Congress into smaller parties. This may bring the Nepal Communist Party to power through elections.

At the core of the political crisis is a crisis of government. Nepal’s government effectively controls only one-fourth of the country, reported the Kathmandu Post January 3. The no-confidence motion was unleashed when the government was accused of failing to maintain law and order, widespread corruption and inability to govern. All political forces and mainstream media attest to these accusations.

Such poor governance contributed to the security crisis. Maoist insurgents have already captured one-third of the country and announced the creation of a provisional government that aims to take over the country within one or two years. Whole units of Nepalese Police have abandoned their posts and fled from the line of confrontation with rebels, reported the Kathmandu Post January 3. The Army prefers to stay neutral, even if Maoist detachments are nearby. The population in Maoist-dominated regions seems to support the insurgents while some in government-controlled districts sympathize with them.

A social crisis complicates the situation. Communal violence has become the norm. Recent anti-India riots by the misinterpreted remarks of an Indian movie star led to casualties with seven people killed by Police.

This led to an ongoing general strike called by the opposition. Nepal’s economy has taken a hit. Tax revenues dropped drastically due to the strike and to fleeing Indian businesses. Foreign tourism revenues are also in decline.

Nepal is likely headed toward even more difficult times with the probable change of its entire political system, from multiparty democracy to Communist state. If current trends are unchanged, the chaos could ultimately lead to the governments’ collapse and the potential victory for the Maoist rebels.

Given the country’s invaluable geo-strategic location, literally at the top of Eurasia, this will give a dramatic advantage to Beijing’s geopolitical position on the continent while causing major problems for India. Whether the future Nepal government becomes Maoist or communist, the government will likely lean toward Beijing, and will allow for establishment of Chinese surveillance and listening posts.

That would position China’s forces close to New Delhi and other vital Indian centers. It would also help Beijing gain geo-strategic leverage over not only India but also larger areas, from Central Asia through Southeast Asia.

China’s presence in Nepal would also complicate positions of the U.S. Navy in the Indian Ocean. With early warning, surveillance, intelligence and navigation systems in Nepal, Beijing would keep a vast part of Asia and military forces there under constant electronic watch.

India will be forced to counter Nepal’s apparent slide toward Beijing through other means, perhaps contacts with Bhutan, another buffer state in the region. India might also conduct a more active policy in Tibetan affairs while using the fact that it remains on good terms with the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan Buddhist hierarchy.

India could also increase dialogue with other countries along China’s perimeter, such as Mongolia and Vietnam. The cautious attitude of these countries toward Beijing is no secret to New Delhi".

Girl trafficking: Need to bring greater conceptual clarity

Kathmandu: The findings of an 18 month research study on trafficking in Nepal were presented jointly by The Asia Foundation-TAF-and the Population Council-Horizons- at a seminar held here last Friday January 19, 2001.

The findings have emanated, say the organizers, from in-depth field based research on adolescent vulnerability to trafficking conducted among as many as 1,200 girls from various districts of Nepal notably from Jhapa, Parsa and Palpa as well from analyses of the prevailing Nepali laws, policies and current interventions to prevent the menace of trafficking.

Mr. Nick Langton, Representative of The Asia Foundation at the beginning of the seminar introduced the research scholars involved in the field-based research and the speakers who included Dr. Jyoti Sanghera and Dr. Celine Costello Daly.

Those who attended the one-day seminar on the topic included Government officials, donor organizations, and I/NGOs working on the issue plus a selected number of media professionals.

At a time when local and international attention to the issue is burgeoning, the research highlights innovative intervention approaches being undertaken to arrest trafficking, identifies program gaps and provides guidelines for the development and the implementation of further policy and program responses to trafficking.

Among the major recommendations of the research revealed at the seminar was the need to bring about greater conceptual clarity on the issue of trafficking. The speakers argued that it was essential to consider the laws and the policies from the point of view of the possible impact on the Human Rights of the disgraced trafficked persons. They drew attention to the fundamental difference between a woman’s right to safe migration and protection of women per se, and the need for interventions that are need-based, research based and rights based as well.

The findings on the field research on adolescent girls’ vulnerability to trafficking showed that girls view trafficking to be caused by factors such as illiteracy and sheer poverty and suggest addressing the issue by targeting underlying gender/social issues and providing livelihood opportunities within the community.

Social stigmatization regarding trafficking and HIV/AIDS in rural Nepal was considered to be quite high in the study.

Flying colors for Koirala; Deuba is sinking horse!

Kathmandu: Former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba proved himself to be a sinking horse.

The just ended elections at Pokhara confirmed this fact. His loosing the Royal Battle was a foregone conclusion except for some Deuba media loyalists for some obvious reasons.

However, the freshly concluded Congress Circus in Pokhara also concurrently indicated that time permitting Deuba-the arch rival of newly elected President Koirala, could be a formidable threat to the latter’s twin positions:; the congress presidency and the Prime Ministership.

The 35% votes, which Deuba bagged this round of elections and thus was declared the looser, amply hints that if he worked hard in the future, he would easily destabilize Koirala and his presidency from within.

If Deuba allegations were correct at time of the primary elections made against Koirala manipulations in managing then the victory of his "voters" for Pokhara meet, then the current 35% votes what Deuba could bag against all the odds would have definitely swelled up.

Add to this the 3Ms-media, money and muscle with which Koirala was equipped with at Pokhara also if taken in to proper account means that Koirala in absence of the charismatic 3Ms and the glow of the post he was handling would have at least been at par with the votes what Deuba secured for himself.

All put together conform to the fact that Deuba has lost the battle but yet remains strong enough to face any such eventualities in the future if the situation so demand.

Now that Deuba has already been declared the looser, the question that is being asked in the congress circle and elsewhere too as to what would be Deuba’s next moves?And what course the Congress politics will take under president Koirala? Will he be able to reunite the party including Deuba and proceed jointly to fight the scores of evils and disturbances that possess the potential of even dismantling the system?

To answer to these questions will still be premature. Still, what could be guessed in advance is that the congress will, as a party, tread the way much the same way as it faired in the past without much change. The fact is that the congress was never a united force and concurrently it is a party that will perhaps never split unless atragedy of Himalayan dimension, imposed or a real one grips it.

In other words, the congress is fortunately endowed with high shock absorbing capacity and hence any minor jolt in the party will not deter it from moving ahead.

Be that as it may, much will depend on how President Koirala moves in the immediate future. Much will also depend upon the moves of his "inner coterie" as it is this coterie which makes Koirala to move in a manner that suits the coterie interests.

By next month hopefully, the course of congress’ would be politics will become clear.

UML vows to unseat PM Koirala

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Koirala’s enemies apparently will converge at one place in their fresh bid to unseat him from the current chair.

Indications to this effect has just come from the main opposition-the UML quarters which only Monday evening decided to launch almost a sort of crusade to throw Koirala out of the chair if the latter doesn't quit the post on moral grounds.

The UML has finally joined the bands of the enemies of Koirala who wish to see him relinquishing the chair of the Prime Minister in the larger interest of the people and the nation.

The UML apparently has charted big plans for the summary ouster of Koirala which include "aggressive" presentation inside the parliament that is yet to begin and concurrently jumping onto the streets with "effective" demonstrations.

The UML believes that in doing so, the people will understand better the UML’s cause and the need for Koirala’s ouster from the post and that would continue till Koirala himself quits from the chair.

"The rest of the opposition parties in the parliament will also be taken into confidence and would be duly convinced on the need for Koirala’s ouster", said a UMLite to this scribe.

A sort of pressure would be build against Prime Minister Koirala both inside the parliament and in the streets much the same way the Phillipinos came out on the streets to force the estrada's ouster only recently and the "’mechanism" worked effectively, added yet another UML supporter.

An official statement released by the UML Monday states the reasons for the urgent need to dismiss Koirala from the Premiership had arisen, among other things: firstly, the Congress government under Koirala instead of checking effectively the wanton killings of the people and the reign of terror that prevails in the nation, acted in a manner just the otherwise; secondly, the Public Accounts Committee while investigating the Lauda air scandal apparently sensed the Prime Minister’s own involvement in the whole deal; thirdly, overtures seen in handing over the nation’s two commercial banks to the foreign companies contra to the laws of the land; and finally, instead of opting for a constructive dialogues with the Maoists in sorting out the issue, preferred to break the dialogue mid-way and thus contributed to complicating the problem even more.

The charges definitely are grave. Whether the charges framed against Koirala by the UML were correct or not is important. If yes, then it would definitely create havoc not only for Koirala but for the entire system as well.

Things will come to the open only after the now suspended Chairman of the RNAC currently under the command of the Commission looking for the abuse of authority speaks the truths or is made to speak the facts.

To recall, the Maoists almost take Koirala as their number enemy; rest of the opposition forces too were not happy with Koirala’s handling of the state affairs; the nine left parties unquestionably were deadly against Koirala’s rule; the Deuba factor is already there; the lay men are not happy with his regime for obvious reasons and finally the UML which has declared a sort of undeclared war against Koirala.

If all these forces converge and the people affected by Koirala’s (mal) governance support the movement on the streets, the result is predictable.

Civil war In Nepal round the corner!

Kathmandu: The government sponsored Ordinance Bill which was sent to the Royal Palace for its approval meant for the formation of the much-publicized Armed Police Force, APF, has already assumed the force of a law.

King Birendra-the constitutional monarch offered his Royal Seal on the said Bill Monday.

Now with the approval of the bill, the government is now free to wage a sort of war against the Maoists insurgents as it is equipped with the provisions to kill anybody under the pretext of the insurgents.

The Armed Police Force thus formed will be under the Home Ministry, which means that the Prime Minister would directly control "actions" against the insurgents, himself.

How Prime Minister Koirala will deal with this insurgency in the days ahead is any body’s guess simply because he and his coterie consider the insurgency to be a terrorist one.

The crusade that he will begin against the Maoists will in all probability ‘sow the seeds’ of a civil war which apparently were round the corner.

To recall, political parties other than Koirala’s congress opine that the Maoists issue should be dealt with politically instead of the use of the force.

A set of intellectuals opine that the King should have thought twice prior to giving his approval to the said bill which indeed, presumably, is a draconian one.

How the insurgents will react to this bill and its use henceforth will determine the extent of damage in terms of lives and property when the two warring sides come face to face.

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