Indepth Analysis

New phase likely in Nepali politics after Rolpa!

Kathmandu: The Rolpa incidence where the Royal Nepal Army has effectively imposed the first public set-back for the insurgent Maoists has most likely augured in a new phase in Nepali politics. The military setback was on real grounds expected in the event of an army move. The stalemate that occurred was also expected on grounds of the fact that the army's now proven military capability will receive a check from politics. The army has so far moved "in aid of civil authority". If more movement is required to actually quell the insurgency on part of the army the political checks that prompted the stalemate will have to be removed.

It is this that deserves serious attention. The army is capable to do so only when its strategic requirements are to be fulfilled. The army, more significantly for the moment, has already provided the virtually unchecked Maoists insurgency movement its first strategic blow in this puny move. It is this also that brings the Maoists concentrated aspect of Nepali politics to a new phase.

Yet another indicator signaling the new phase is the abrupt resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Ram Chandra Poudel. He was also the home minister. He is said to have been a Girija insider. His position in the Congress Central Committee is known. The actual reasons behind the hawkish Poudel's sudden desertion are not.

And then there is the virtually impotent action of the Opposition UML in the parliament that signals the need for the UML itself to take its activities to a new pitch for sake of presence alone. Unless the country's largest opposition party does so, the actual ability of the UML to be of effect in the mainstream politics will be put to serious doubts. This will be costly for the UML in terms of cadre desertions in the face of competition from its Left competitors, the Maoists being but one among them.

The other is the ML factor. After talks, much publicized in its media, with the country's new monarch, King Gyanendra, the ML has publicized its demands for an all-party government already staking its role in the mediation with the Maoists. Even this suggests that the new phase is underway.

And then there are the Maoists themselves. The Rolpa incidence should compel a new direction in their current strategies. Regardless of the conflicting and contradictory media information, a process of dialogue and deliberations would appear a serious compulsion. For the insurgency move, which so far seems to have gone unchecked regardless of government claims to the contrary.

The Girija government as predicted seems so far to be much removed from pressures of the "resignation politics" of the past year. Its anticipation of a new phase, however, may be glimpsed in the series of meetings called at the center for senior administrative personnel. These meetings appear preparatory to the new phase. With morale so low that as many as over seventy policemen in frontline insurgency affected districts surrendering, the effect of such meeting may of course be put to question. Nevertheless, the Girija government would have little recourse other than to bank on the "congressized"' government machinery to prepare for the new phase.

Strip News:
Careful handling of Rolpa event might facilitate 'dialogue' process

Kathmandu: The government under Prime Minister Koirala finally managed to bring out the Nepali military men out of the barracks.

Prime Minister Koirala's declared long cherished wish to send the military to contain the threats of the Maoists insurgents in the remote far flung areas of the western part of the Kingdom finally could take a concrete shape last week when a battalion of the army surrounded the jungle wherein the Maoists had kept the kidnapped policemen belonging to the Holeri checkpost.

Though the government's media machinery gives an impression that the Nepali army has been mobilized in its truest sense of the term, however, former military men opine that the army has simply moved in aid of the civil authority and nothing more than that.

Interestingly enough, the deployed military men too have sounded that they simply had come to the Nuwa Gaon jungles to rescue the kidnapped policemen and to recover their looted arms and ammunitions back from the insurgents. Worth mulling over is the statements coming as it does from the army and the Maoists quarters that they both will not be the first to use guns against each other.

This statements is meaningful in the sense that it very candidly hints at the very hidden fact that both would prefer not to kill each other and would maintain maximum restraint on their parts.

However, the manner the government media mill and its party activists spread the rumors aimed all against the insurgents and concurrently highlighted the military's clear advantage in and around Rolpa was not all correct, according to some newspapers affiliated to the Left parties.

The government version of the scheme of things were that the insurgents in the jungles had been encircled by the military men in at least two rings and that the insurgents could not be brought under its control only because they used the civilians as their shield and thus things went in favor of the Maoists.

However, media reports say that it were the military men who in effect had been encircled by the Maoists and that both talked with each other and said good-bye to each other and that too very pleasingly. In the process, the day one when the military approached the jungle, the army was asked by the insurgents as to who they were and what for they had come there? The army through the mike told the insurgents that they were army men and had come to rescue the kidnapped policemen together with to recover their looted arms. However, the army also told them that their mission was only the rescue and nothing more than that.

Media reports have it that the military remained under the circle of the Maoists for three consecutive days.

Equally true is the fact that the statements issued by the insurgents' camp too were overly blown.

The fact is that at one point the military ring had surely gheraoed the insurgents together with their top hats. However, the Maoists could use the jungle and the local terrain tactfully and hence could manage the safety of a good number of insurgents to escape.

In the absence of reliable information trickling out from the troubled area, the national population was forced to listed to the "structured" news supplied by the state owned and controlled media sector. More so, the media men who had gone there to collect the news were too not allowed to do their jobs and hence the monopoly of the government's version.

The fact is that the military and the insurgents both deserve appreciation for not having resorted to guns.

Had the government ordered the army to crush the insurgents or even if the latter used the guns against the most loyal servants of mother Nepal, a serious disaster would have dawned in the nation.

Since the military is yet to return to the barracks and the insurgents are yet to hand over the policemen to the appropriate authorities and since the HR activists are yet to come into action, the situation around Nuwa Gaon still remains fluid.

If things go out of hand unfortunately, the Rolpa event will perhaps only be the beginning of disasters waiting in series but not the end.

It is at such moments the wisdom of the military and the insurgents must be carefully watched.

Box News:
Koirala's options: Resignation or snap polls!

Kathmandu: A stubborn Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala remains undeterred.

He will not resign is the message emanating from Baluatar Palace quarters.

The fact is that even the international community subtly hints that fifty percent of the Nepalese problems will be solved including the Maoists issue the moment Koirala resigns. Koirala has apparently analyzed this situation himself. However, the fear of being penalized by the next government under pressure from the Opposition for so many irregularities inclusive of the Lauda air deal, Prime Minister Koirala is just lingering his days in the office.

The Opposition UML too remains determined to continue actions till Koirala yields. Fortunately enough, in UML's bid for the summary ouster of Koirala, the Koirala detractors in the ruling party itself have decided to register a vote of no confidence against their own Prime Minister at the parliamentary party. Obviously they claim their majority in the party which generally decides the next Prime Minister.

Most important for Koirala is that his declared detractors, read the Bhattarai-Deuba-Khadka troika- have sent signals to Baluatar palace suggesting Prime Minister Koirala to tender his resignation or else get himself prepared to face the no confidence move by Thursday afternoon.

Sources close to Koirala say that the Prime Minister might give a pleasant surprise to the nation by offering his voluntary resignation on Wednesday afternoon. Rumors have it that Koirala might do so from the rostrum of the parliament. (If pushed to the wall further, instead of resigning he might throw the nation to the polls. Resignation or declaration of the polls both can't be ruled out at this critical juncture).

However, sources in the rival camp opine that since Koirala is a different stuff and hence to expect his resignation that too voluntarily will be an exercise close to daydreaming.

The fact is that save a few chums like Bastola and Acharya, other close friends of Koirala of the good-old-days have deserted him differing with his working styles. Bastola and Acharya still continue with Koirala because they were close relatives or else the latter would have already become a lone crusader in the Nepalese political landscape.

Prime Minister Koirala got a serious jolt Sunday afternoon when he drove to Bhattarai's house and sought his support in the face of the military deployment in Rolpa. Bhattarai in his response to Koirala's request said that what was the guarantee the military succeeded in its mission. He also asked what if the military unfortunately failed. Bhattarai also made it known to Koirala that military was not the answer to the Maoists issue. Indirectly he hinted that dialogues must prevail.

An annoyed Koirala came back to his quarters and tried to seduce Khum Bahadur Khadka-an ace man in the congress after Deuba. Koirala offered him lucrative posts and to some of his close friends. A clever Khadka denied the offer for he knew that a wise man should never put his bet on a sinking horse at the racecourse.

Insiders of the congress say that Koirala got nervous at the sudden resignation of Ram Chandra Poudel. However, he concluded that Khum Bahadur Khadka could rescue him from the current stalemate. Khadka denied summarily but instead suggested him to resign. Later Bhattarai snubbed him.

All put together, if Koirala resigns within a day or two out of sheer frustration then it would not be any big wonder.

But, say Koirala detractors, never trust Koirala moves.

Nevertheless, what is for sure is that the UML has already established close links with the troika in the congress for Koirala's ouster.

Miscellaneous:
HR activists must remain impartial to events

Kathmandu: Whether the Maoists insurgents like it or not, the fact is that they too got pretty nervous when they came face to face with the Nepali army in the Jungles of Nuwa Gaon.

In essence, the Maoists had apparently calculated that the military will not be deployed for the rescue operations of the kidnapped policemen in the Rolpa jungles and hence were in a relaxed mood.

However, things were just the otherwise, which in all likelihood came as a bolt from the blue for the Maoists. Nevertheless, being a disciplined and ever alert force, the Maoists insurgents some how or the other managed to bring things under their control.

Yet another aspect over which our attention has been purposely drawn is the double standard maintained by Nepal's Human Rights activists regarding their treatment meted out to similar events in two different perspectives.

With malice to none, as and when the Nepali police men are kidnapped, disarmed or even killed, it is this set of the HR activists and their related organization that prefers to keep a stoic silence. Conversely, it is this set again which suddenly comes under a state of unease and tension as and when the Maoists are trapped or killed on two-way firings. It is this set which creates havoc against the government and warns the establishment not to exceed functions and issues statements which more often than not gets coverage in Nepali media including our own newspapers.

What we fail to understand why these HR institutions treat the Nepali policemen and the Nepali Maoists in two different ways when they are being attacked by each other? For us both were the sons of this soil.

For example, the Maoists kidnapped almost seventy policemen last week. No words of sympathy came from the HR quarters. However, when the military proceeded to Rolpa jungles, the HR activists came into full action and are learnt to be preparing grounds for talks in between the government and the insurgents.

While we support their genuine cause but fail to understand their certain overtures which provide ample ground to suspect their motives.

For the HR activists, as per their bounden duties they must remain ever sincere to the preservation of human rights of the people. However, care must be taken that they should work for all, whether they are policemen or for that matter the Maoists.

Nevertheless this should not mean that we are against the HR present mission which is all aimed at bringing the warring sides for talks and the rescue of the kidnapped policemen.

Could be due to the excessive unpopularity of the government, the majority of the non-political population including the HR organizations extending their subtle sympathies onto the Maoists insurgents. Or what else?

Maoists change stance on monarchy!

Kathmandu: Political pundits of the capital district remain puzzled over the sudden changed stance of the Maoists regarding the present monarch, King Gyanendra in the last few days.

To recall, it were the Maoists leaders who until recently possessed very negative comments about the monarch specially after the death of late King Birendra on June 1, 2001.

In essence, the Maoists leaders made several controversial statements in between and questioned the credentials of the new monarch.

However, now the Maoists have opted not to criticize the new King and the monarchy but instead have concurrently decided to pour their total wrath onto the present Prime Minister.

This sudden change in their stance vis-à-vis the King has apparently come after the Maoists met the military men last Friday in the Rolpa jungles wherein they are supposed to have talked on the modalities of freeing of the kidnapped policemen and also the freeing of some prominent Maoists leaders currently languishing in government jails. Could be a mere conjecture only.

A fresh statement from the Maoists quarters also clearly says that they will not talk with the present regime for arriving at a solution to their overly stretched imbroglio.

This automatically means that the Maoists too will contribute their strength for the ouster of Koirala with those willing partners such as the UML and the Bhattarai-Deuba-Khadka troika.

It again means that should Koirala be replaced with any Tom, Dick or even Harry, the Maoists will unconditionally join the negotiating table.

However, the new stance of the Maoists were yet another trick to buy time or were really sincere in their words has got to be watched.

Be that as it may, the Maoists changed stance over their newfound analyses regarding the new monarch is simply meaningful which hopefully the local political analysts will wish to mull over.

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