Indepth Analysis

Subtle changes in opposition strategy!

Kathmandu: The opposition momentum against the government has taken a curious turn. Sadbhavana which sits in parliament opposing attempts to disrupt parliament says that it will oppose the ordinances when brought as bill for parliamentary approval. RPP, which contributes to the disruption of the parliament, says that it will not accompany the UML and other left parties in their street programs against the government. The UML has already begun announcing its programs on the street beginning this week and continues to disrupt parliament. The MLwhich is not in parliament is on the streets but calls for the dissolution of the parliament and an all party government to end the impasse and it also appears that it is in competition along with the UML and the Maoists to lead the Left street programs. The Maoists' on the other hand have already announced a bundh next week.

Curious as these turns of events may be, the opposition appears united on matters of the Lauda affair and the ordinances. On the other hand, the differences in strategies suggest a clear breach in unity on the opposition campaign. Some sectors suggest that this is capital for government and that this has been so engineered by the much talked about visit here of former Indian Ambassador Krishna Venkatesh Rajan. Whatever, the breach in strategies appears significant.

On the other hand, the Left appears united on the need for a street campaign. Sectors suggest that "pro-India man" K.P.Woli of the UML is reluctant in this. But both parliamentary and non-parliamentary parties identifying themselves as "the Left" appear convinced that Girija babu's adamant stand in parliament can only be defeated only in the streets. They have each devised their own street strategies. How from the UML, to the ML, to the Maoists' these strategies will compliment each other ultimately will perhaps suggest the ultimate leadership that the street campaign will provide a phillip too. It is this that has to be closely watched.

Outside the parliament, which remains disrupted despite the many attempts on part of the government and the Speaker for a dialogue, much emphasis is being given to the gradual movement of the army troops in the border areas on plea of controlling illicit cross-border trade and controlling customs. Also important are the several messages coming through to public from sectors including government of the absence of law and order in the midst of which such crucial ordinances as that to do with the Armed Police and Regional administrators must be provided their parliamentary legitimacy. Given the state of the parliament the fact that these already constituted organs have their legitimacy questioned still provides an altogether different message to the people.

Bhattarai pushes Koirala to the wall!

Kathmandu: The continued stalemate in the parliament appears to have approached a crucial stage. With both the ruling Koirala quarter and the Opposition camp remaining adamant on their declared stands, the deadlock apparently will continue for quite some long time. Unless a miracle happens in the immediate days ahead, the nation is sure to suffer immensely. Anti democratic forces and sectors inimical to Girija regime have apparently converged at one point with one single agenda and that being the summary ouster of Prime Minister Koirala. Add to this the Maoists advanced declaration that they would also observe a nation bundh on April 6 which in essence would add fuel to the fire to the already declared several street programs devised by the entire rock solid opposition to press the Prime Minister further for resignation.

In the process, the UML and the allied political parties Monday initiated the beginning of their almost month long program aimed at the ouster of Prime Minister Koirala. The climax of the UML led program would be on April 8 when the entire opposition will address public gatherings at several important districts of the Kingdom to raise awareness among the people regarding the Prime Minister's involvement in the Lauda air procurement affair.

Much dangerous could be the April 6 Nepal bundh sponsored by the Maoists which has been declared to protest Girija establishment's what they prefer to call "anti-national" schemes to crush the innocent peoples through the use of the Royal Ordinance which in effect has been brought to, says a press release issued by the insurgents, take care of the insurgency.

A section of the intellectuals fear and opine that what would be the dimension of the April 6 bundh if the lay men join the bands of the Maoists out of frustration? They also hasten to add that since the people at the lowest rung have remained brazenly neglected by the state so they might prefer to be-friendly with the insurgents and make the April 6 bundh more chaotic than what the government might have imagined of!

However, thanks that the Maoists have stated in their press release that their bundh will be a "peaceful one".

Only the time will tell whether it would be a peaceful one or just will take a different course thus terrifying the national population.

The fact is that the parliamentary opposition have vowed that they would spare no efforts for Prime Minister Koirala's ouster come what may. If some weight is given to their strong worded statements made against the Prime Minister then what could be concluded in advance that this round the opposition will not settle for less.

Not very surprisingly, Koirala who is the real target of the opposition remains undeterred and apparently has been hinting his colleagues that he would face the opposition onslaught both in the parliament or in the streets.

The fact is that internally Koirala has become weaker for he is being advised by his own one time close aides to resign. In addition to this new phenomenon, Koirala is being subjected to continued pressures from Krishna Prasad Bhattarai and his detractors from within led by Sher Bahadur Deuba. Insiders say that Deuba is just obeying the dictates of Bhattarai and is adding to the pains of Koirala. If this is a fact then Bhattarai is playing double.

That he is playing double gets reflected from the fact that at the one hand he is pressing Girija to step down from one of the two posts which at the moment Koirala is occupying, on the other he is concurrently hinting Koirala not to resign under the threats of the opposition.

"The Bhattarai game plan is to push Koirala to the wall so that he finally yields and resigns from the leadership of the parliamentary party of the congress", said a Bhattarai loyalist on condition of anonymity.

If he does yield, it could be used as a face saving formula for the mentally disturbed Prime Minister, added the same source.

In essence, Bhattarai wishes to see Koirala stepping down from the Prime Ministers' chair and handing it over to his all time protégé Sher Bahadur Deuba.

Koirala is not at all unaware of this Bhattarai design, say Koirala men. "If Koirala is pressed hard, he would hand over the chair to some one else than a Bhattarai chum", so said a Koirala inner circle man.

All put together comes out a scenario that makes it amply clear that neither Koirala nor the opposition will compromise at least for the time being. This automatically means that the national population will have to wait for a miracle to occur which will properly take care of the impasse seen in the parliament since fifty days or so.

Strikingly similar views from three different communist camps!

Kathmandu: There could be a nexus, opine local political pundits in the capital, in between the demands forwarded by three different sorts of communists parties for a different type of "government" to bring out the nation from the ailments in which it is heavily engrosses in for quite some time now.

Interestingly, the three separate demands for the formation of a new government coming as it does from three entirely different communist camps in essence could be the same.

Consider the fact that it was for the first time that Madhav Nepal-the UML leader-once demanded the formation of an interim arrangement at time of the elections. Madhav Nepal apparently felt that the continuing government at time of the election could manipulate the elections in its favor through the massive use of the state machinery and the resources.

The fact is that Nepali constitution does not possess any such provision in it. The fact is also that Madhav Nepal was well aware of these constitutional limitations but yet why he demanded for the same? Perplexing proposition indeed.

Not very surprisingly then the fire brand leader of the ML-Bamdev Gautam too should be forwarding a proposal which sees the need for a "national" government. In essence Bamdev Gautam thinks that the present chaos created by the UML led opposition for the ouster of the Prime Minister will not solve the nation's problems. Instead Gautam suggests for the formation of such a type of government whose provisions were not in the constitution now in force.

Here again, Gautam knows this constitutional restriction but yet why he is adamant on his funny proposition? Time to think.

Last but not the least, the Maoists insurgency led by Chairman Comrade Prachanda too appears to be in the same race for installing a government whose possibilities the constitution denies.

To recall, Prachanda only recently through a press release hinted the countrymen that his party will pleasingly join a government at the center, which comprised of all the political parties currently operating in the Kingdom. Prachanda even hinted that the "peoples' government" could even house nominees of the King. He also hinted that an all party meet be convened to discuss the Maoists issues.

The gist of comrade Prachanda's statement also hints at the formation of a government, which the constitution can't allow to happen.

Understandably, Prachanda knows fully about the constitutional stipulations but yet why he too is demanding the same absurd?

To recall, all these leaders some way or the other have remained together for quite some time in the past. The present day UML was once upon a time more dangerous than what the Maoists are today in the eyes of the government. Consider also that Bamdev Gautam of the ML till four years back was an influential member of the UM.

Could one draw some nexus in the demands put forth by these three separate communist leaders? Keep on guessing.

Will King Birendra agree to announce yet another bill through Ordinance?

Kathmandu: The Koirala government is in serious trouble. Attacks from all possible quarters are being directed against it.

If, on the one hand, the opposition led by UML has already waged a warfare for the ouster of the Prime Minister itself, then on the other, the government's merit is too at stake because of the inability of the latter in getting through the two bills brought through the Royal Ordinance on time in the ongoing winter session of the parliament.

The two bills, one for the formation of the Armed Police Force and the next brought for the appointments of regional administrators, must get through the parliament within April 8 next month or else it will instantly become ineffective much to the discomfiture of the government. It is on this day that the announcement of the bill will complete two months.

The fact is that the opposition will oppose the two bills in getting it through this session come what may.

Another disturbing factor is that what would happen if the constitutional monarch rejects the government's preference for yet another Royal Ordinance in lieu of the previous bill that will become presumably ineffective due to the disruption in the parliament? Rumors are abounding that the King will listen to the popular demand and of the opposition parties as well who collectively do not wish such draconian bill to take the form of a law.

In case the King rejects the government's request for yet another bill through the Ordinance will definitely make the situation uncomfortable in between the leader of the government and the constitutional monarch. A crisis is in the making perhaps.

In effect, the government under Koirala is thinking on this line should the ongoing session come to an end without passing the two in what has been considered as very "important" bills for the government.

Though the fate of the two bills is still in a limbo in the lower house but yet the Koirala regime has appointed regional administrators and also appointed some Police officials for the proposed-Armed Police Force. The fact is that the moment the bill crosses the April 8 mark, the appointments made so far by the government will automatically become null and void. It is this compulsion that the Koirala regime is all set to request the King to announce yet another Royal Ordinance to give a new lease of life to the already sinking bill lying in the parliament.

A frustrated government now is considering proroguing the ongoing session of the parliament for fear of a major clash in the parliament. A section of the congressmen loyal to Koirala have been repeatedly suggesting the Speaker Ranabhat to use the Marshals to tame the firebrand opposition and run the parliament.

"If I use the Marshals it would tantamount to sending the communists to the jungles and that would be really dangerous for the government"', said the Speaker to this scribe at B'desh embassy reception on March 26 afternoon.

Speaker Ranabhat however, told this scribe that he still thinks that a danger or say a threat to democracy was lurking should the impasses continue for long.

"' The ruling party and the opposition are pressing me hard. The ruling clique forces me to tame the opposition through the use of the force. The opposition in a similar manner suggests me to serve a ruling demanding the presence of the Prime Minister. In effect neither I can force the premier nor can I use force against the opposition", said an utterly annoyed Speaker of the Lower House of Nepal's beleaguered parliament.

In the process, both the ruling and the opposition parties suspect my credentials, said the Speaker.

The Speaker also felt very much saddened when his dinner request was summarily rejected recently by the leaders of various parties, which had been tentatively organized to bring all the conflicting political leaders together and arrive at a solution to the continuing dangerous impasse.

President Putin values Moscow-Kathmandu Cooperation

Kathmandu: The newly elected Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin has said "the friendly character of relations between Russia and the Kingdom of Nepal is known".

The Russian President made these friendly observances recently while accepting the letter of credentials of the newly accredited Royal Nepalese Ambassador to the Russian Federation, Lila Sharma, at a special ceremony held in Moscow.

The Russian President further said "we value the constructive cooperation with Kathmandu on the issues of forming the new democratic world order".

He also said, "this cooperation is based on our similar approaches towards international problems".

However, what our Ambassador said during the credential presenting ceremony is not known.

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