Indepth Analysis

The Maoists' option appears real: Girija on the way out

Kathmandu: The controversy over the Army standpoint that its inclusion in the government's integrated development program continues. This is so much so that the government lobby and its workers continue to hype the theory that the Army's reluctance exposes the links between the far right and the Maoists'. In so many ways the Maoists' gain ground as the breach between the government and the opposition widens while the only "capable" war institution continues to insist that its mobilization will not be effective until a consensus is built in the political sector on the issue of mobilization.

It is this stalemate that paralyses the country as such. Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala is widely viewed as a lame-duck Prime Minister. Especially after the judiciary ruled that the citizenship bill was against constitution, the opposition's demand for a resignation on his part on moral grounds has strengthened. The matter of the Lauda air decisions by the anti-corruption authorities where his former minister Tarini Dutt Chataut has had to hand over his passport has raised the questions of moral compulsion to a new pitch still. These issues appear not to have affected Girija babu's standpoint that he will not resign until the anti-corruption authorities involve him in the deal directly. Indeed, the Prime Minister maintains that the opposition is "undemocratic" because a majority in the house must throw him out. Of course, Mr. Koirala has his parliamentary majority.

The question of moral responsibility appears to have appealed at the popular level. The Lauda air deal and the depletion of the country's flag carrier as proven publicly by the anti-corruption investigation make Girija babu's insistence on staying in his post as out of tune approach to democracy as such. When the minister talks publicly that the deal was made on the approval of the Girija cabinet, the distance the Prime Minister seeks to keep between the airliner and his government has not been saleable in the public. It is not just the opposition street campaign that is exposing the Prime Minister. The government media itself can't but help report the investigation proceedings or the Supreme Court decisions.

It is this lame-duck status that has virtually paralyzed the administration now. With the opposition stepping up its street campaign, and the administration not functioning, the Maoist challenge and the non-starter status of the government's program to counter it further jeopardize the state of the nation. The streets have at times thus been taken over by gangs and the bureaucracy is a free-for-all in the absence of the will to work. In these circumstances, curiously enough, those in the Maoists' affected areas now claim that there is a higher stability, predictability and authority than in the capital itself.

Civil war in the making: Maoists' the fourth political force!

Kathmandu: The rumor spread by the government media mill that the constitutional monarch has already given his assent to the mobilization of the Army in the Maoists' affected areas remains yet to be substantiated from the responsible quarters.

The monarch as the Supreme Commander of the Royal Nepal Army must notify the entire population that the rumors diffused by the government were accurate and that soon the Army will proceed to the Western parts of the country to contain the threats of the Maoists insurgents.

The fact is that the Royal Palace is yet to confirm the talks of the mobilization of the Army as has been given to understand by the Koirala regime to the population. The practice has been that as and when such actions of such grave dimensions were taken, the Royal Palace releases a statement to that effect through the media section of the Palace.

However, nothing so far has come out from the Palace that confirms the government's assertion or whatsoever.

At a time when the popular will has been that the government initiate dialogues with the Maoists insurgents and bring about a peaceful atmosphere in the nation, the top hat of the main opposition, UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal has –deliberate or otherwise, point blank has elevated the rank of the Maoists party.

"Whether one likes it or not, the Maoists have already become the fourth force in the country", said a beaming UML leader Madhav Nepal yesterday at a program conducted by a center led by former speaker, Daman Nath Dhungana.

Interestingly, Madhav Nepal's blunt assertion in favor of the Maoists has come at a time when the government under Koirala is preparing major offensive against the insurgents under the camouflage of the integrated approach, which apparently has more sticks than carrots.

The Maoists issue being a "political one", the government must deal with it in a political manner and refrain from the use of the army force to crush the insurgents, Madhav Nepal added.

This sudden change in tone acquired by Madhav Nepal regarding his party's perception over the Maoists issue apparently is loaded with significance in the sense that it has come at a time when the nation remains divided over how to tame the Maoists: through the use of military force or opt for meaningful dialogues.

The fact is that except the Girija regime, the rest of the major political actors of the nation prefer the option of the talks with the insurgents.

Undoubtedly, Madhav's sudden sympathy and love towards the insurgents should have emboldened the latter for it was Madhav;'s statement that has surprisingly elevated the ranks of the Maoists forces and has brought at par with other political actors of the nation.

To recall, the government under Koirala, though it has always treated the Maoists insurgency as a terrorist act, however, the regime has not been able to dub it as an out-lawed conglomerate for reasons unknown to many Nepalese intellectuals.

Watchers of Nepali politics see in Madhav's statement some sort of "solidarity" in between the two communist groupings. The difference in between the two, in effect, is that one is championing the democratic process for the time being and the other one is in the jungles and vows to install "republicanism" in this Kingdom.

How the government reacts to UML leaders' new declaration made regarding the insurgents is yet unclear. Similarly, whether other political actors, for example, the congress, the NSP, the RPP and a host of others, take Madhav's assertion will have to be watched.

Be that as it may, Madhav Nepal's expression might appear to some of having little significance, but Kathmandu analysts attach great significance to his frank admission when he said at the said program that if the inclusion of the Maoists in arriving at a peaceful situation in the country, one must not think it the other way.

In essence, Madhav suggested that the congress, the communists and the constitutional monarch must come to terms with the Maoists to save the nation from going to the brink.

Now all that has to be carefully watched is the separate overtures of different political parties over Madhav's new proposition.

Telegraph adds: In the meanwhile, Bamdev Gautam, leader of the ML too has hinted that the mobilization of the army could not be the solution to the Maoists imbroglio. He questioned as to what would happen if the military failed? What is the guarantee that the army will succeed in its new mission? What if the military succeeds and later disobeys the King?

Others opine that the mobilization of the army in the affected areas would mean the "direct rule" of the army in those areas. Some even say that the already mobilized army will have its own rule there and will care little the dictates of the local civilian administration thus a sort of dual rule in the nation will commence which might invite a sort of civil war in the otherwise peaceful nation.

Bids to influence Lauda investigating authority suspected!

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala is being pushed to the wall.

Apart from the opposition's continued onslaught against him initiated some three months back aiming at unseating

the Prime Minister from his chair, the fresh "advice" forwarded by the Supreme Court to the constitutional monarch saying that the citizenship bill sent for the Royal approval was against the constitution itself must have come as a blow for the regime in general and Koirala in particular.

However, a panic-stricken Prime Minister did tell his colleagues that the day the SC gave its verdict against the government was the saddest day in his nine years plus rule or misrule.

The practice has been that as and when the court forwards ruling of this sort, a government, which possesses "morality", resigns and apologizes to the nation. This is, however, not forthcoming.

Yet another severe blow was offered to Prime Minister Koirala when the Commission for the Abuse of authority sacked RNAC Chairman Hari Bhakta Shrestha and member of the board, Mr. Tirtha Lal Shrestha and sent both to the police custody only last week wherein they are currently languishing.

The two "most unfortunate" Shrestha's apparently with the hope that a second petition from them addressed to the CIAA would please the investigating authorities and that they would be left unscathed boomeranged.

The Shrestha brothers in effect had mentioned in the petition that whatever they did for the RNAC regarding the Lauda procurement procedure then were all the directives coming as it did from the Koirala Cabinet and that they had no hands or whatsoever in the faulty procurement of the said aircraft.

The CIAA, however, preferred to send them to the bars instead of listening to their new revelations.

Be that as it may, what is clear from the arrest of these two unfortunate Shrestha's and their subsequent admissions is that these souls abided by the approval of the cabinet led by Girija. Also the arrest of these personalities proves that some way or the other these two souls too were involved in the Lauda procurement scam. The chunk of the commission thus received, if any, by the two might albeit have differed according to the status.

Thirdly, the summary confiscation of the Passport of the then culture and tourism minister Tarini Datt Chataut by the CIAA also tells the sorry tale of the Lauda affair and the ministerial involvement in the whole scam. The corollary of which could be drawn that unless the cabinet approved the procurement of the Lauda air, the minister could not have dared to do so. This again means that since the cabinet approved the procurement in haste the total responsibility has got to be shouldered by the cabinet chief that is G.P.Koirala.

And this is what the opposition and its allies in the streets were saying.

Media reports have it that bids were on from certain quarters to influence the investigating authority. The authority is being pressed hard to manage a safe landing for Koirala from the Lauda mess. This notwithstanding, rumors abound that says that if the CIAA exhibits leniency towards Koirala and frees Koirala from the allegation then the civil society might request for an impeachment against the chief of the investigating body that is S.N.Upadhyaya.

Critics even mutter in private that the two Shrestha's and the former minister, Chataut, were being forced to become the "martyrs" for saving Girija Koirala.

However, the fact is that the two Shrestha's, who have yet to come out of the bars for failing to deposit the bail amount of five crores, might one fine morning "leak" the real "secrets" to the CIAA and let the real drama begin.

So could be the case with minister Chataut. If he too is forced to the wall might let the cat out of the bag.

In the meantime, the CIAA is learnt to be finalizing the Lauda affair and is planning to file cases in the appropriate court against the declared culprits.

The general opinion has been that if the CIAA resorts to "third degree treatment" to those currently under the bars and whose passport has been impounded might divulge the "unbelievables" which is what the nation is waiting for.

However, the lay men are not sure whether the authority looking after the Lauda procurement affair are allowed to apply this sort of harsh treatment to the Lauda inmates.

Nepal bundh scheduled for 31 May this month

Kathmandu: Yet another headache is on the cards for Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala. This trouble is coming in the form of yet another Nepal Bundh scheduled for May 31 this month sponsored by some ethnic communities and regional organizations which the organizers claim to have been arranged for protesting against the Supreme Court's verdict made some two years back that rejected the regional and ethic dialects as a medium for official business in the country.

"We will protest tooth and nail against this black-day judgement made by the apex court some two years ago", say the agitation organizers.

Interestingly, this Nepal bundh coincides with the twentieth session of the Nepalese parliament which is predicted to be more chaotic than the previous one if the Prime Minister does not resign prior to that session.

The impending Nepal bundh could well become a show of strength for the organizers aimed at hinting at what they call "chauvinistic Brahminic rulers" and would also be a moment for exhibiting the ethnic and the regional solidarity against the official Nepali language.

It would not be very surprising if the Maoists' insurgency back this "black-day" as most of the insurgents housed by the Maoists belong to this set of ethnic tribes who feel completely alienated by the KHAS rulers.

The decision to this effect was arrived at this Sunday by the "Community and Regional Front Coordination Committee" and has been signed by one time famous leader Suresh Ale Magar.

To recall, Mr. Magar had been arrested by the Koirala regime some time back under the pretext of supporting the Maoists insurgency. However, later the government under heavy popular pressure released him.

As if this were not enough, the ANFSU-revolutionary-a students wing of the radical communists, too have declared that they would force the boarding schools a closure for a week in protest of the school men making education a business taxing the innocent and the illiterate guardians.

Things appear that the Koirala regime will have to bear the brunt of all sets of pressures.

However, Koirala appears ready to face all these visible or invisible threats to his chair.

HBC 94fm expands its activities

Kathmandu: The Himalayan Broadcasting Company, HBC, which is on the ethereal medium for quite some time now has expressed its satisfaction over the kind of response it has received from its listeners from within and without.

The HBC which is basically a FM radio station located in Chabahil, Kathmandu also wishes to assure its listeners that it would remain the home of inspirational music, talents, serious speeches and lively debates which focussed on programs like nature and history, philosophy, science, experience and the likes every morning.

The HBC 94 fm, says a release issued by the company, is in the process of designing and airing new programs whose focal point would be the country profile worldwide. In particular, its main characteristics would be the presentation of folklore, legends and its distinctive identity in the world at large.

The press release further states that they wish to air programs on the eve of a country's national day and has appealed to the diplomatic missions based in Kathmandu to send their country's profiles including music, literature and the likes prior to their national days ceremony.

The HBC 94fm assures the missions of its prompt airing for the Nepalese people and for the consumption of the world at large.

Interestingly enough, this fm radio station is perhaps the first in Nepal to be on the Internet as well.

Their address is as follows: http:/www.peacenetworkhbc.com.np

The HBC claims itself to be a peace network.

BDR opened fire in self-defense, India told to investigate Roumari incident

Kathmandu: Wisdom prevailed on both the "friendly" South Asian neighbors, Bangladesh and India, or else a major disaster would have chilled their friendly ties for a long time to come.

To recall, last month the Bangladesh army and the Indian army came face to face and as a result some Indian military men were killed in the two ways firing that occurred on the border.

Though both the governments claim that the "strained relations" have already become normal, however, media reports claim that things at the border have yet to become normal.

In the meanwhile, the B'desh Premier Sheikh Hasina is learnt to have had a telephoniic conversation with her Indian counterpart in which she is reported to have expressed her deep shock and grief at the "unnecessary"' and avoidable loss of lives, on both the sides, due to the recent unfortunate incidents on B'desh-India border. This is stated in a press release issued 23 April, last month, by the B'desh embassy in Kathmandu.

Prime Minister Bajpayee "appreciated" those comments and assured Sheikh Hasina of full understanding and cooperation.

According to B'desh sources, two incidents occurred on the border. The first was in Padua when the BDR troops had encircled the BSF camp in Padua when the latter was trying to "construct" a pucca (cemented) road connecting the BSF (Border Security Force) camp with the Indian territories. However, the second incident at Roumari resulted in causalities when the BDR (Bangladesh Rifles) troops were under "attack" and they had to "open fire" in what has been described in "self-defense".

Sheikh Hasina has sought the support of Bajpayee to investigate the detailed position about this incident.

She has also said that her country would appreciate the Indian gesture if the latter brings into full implementation the "Mujib-Indira" accord arrived at 1974.

Zee news the other day reported that a First Information Report has been filed at some Indian court regarding the sad incidents that took place in between the two neighbors last month at the border.

However, the Bangladeshi side apparently prefers not to bring in the whole affair to the notice of the court.

At the moment both the armies across the borders have been kept on "alert" to avoid further recurrence of the sad happening.

Be that as it may, the fresh clash in between India and Bangladesh at the borders has caused panic in Nepal. Intellectuals here opine that the Nepalese army too must remain on an "all time alert" for obvious reasons.

FES Seminar on Improving SAARC Social Charter

Kathmandu: The Nepal office of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung is organizing a one-day seminar today on "How to Improve the Draft of the SAARC social Charter and how to include Labor Rights".

To recall, the tenth SAARC Summit held in Colombo in July 1998, the Heads of States adopted the decision to develop a Social Charter that "would focus on drawing up targets with a broad range to be achieved across the region in the areas of poverty eradication, population stabilization, the empowerment of women, youth mobilization, human resource development, the promotion of health and nutrition and protection of children.

The seminar expects discussion on whether such standards could be considered for the inclusion in the SAARC Social Charter or not.

Dr. D.R.Dahal is the coordinator of the FES sponsored seminar.

BOOK OF THE WEEK.

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