Indepth Analysis

Stalemate suggests dangerous brinkmanship!

Kathmandu: Rumors last week of an immediate resignation from the Prime Minister upon entertaining questions regarding the Lauda air deal from the CIAA were quashed immediately by the Prime Minister's reply and simultaneous attacks upon the anti-corruption body of intervening in areas of jurisdiction of the elected government. Rival Krishna Prasad Bhattarai was quick to demand resignation on moral grounds no doubt, but the Prime Minister insists that the game against him is played against to "sabotage democracy" and he will not resign in order to preserve it.

Whatever, as rumors go, the Prime Minister's resignation on grounds of principle is said to have been discussed in the cabinet and the Prime Minister's refusal came after his "kitchen cabinet" advised him against it. Also, the Girija lobby in congress was unwilling to hand over the reigns of power to K.P.Bhattarai lobby and the possibility of a Ram Chandra Poudel candidacy for the post as deputy Prime Minister is also said to have been seriously entertained. Obviously, such a decision would have initiated a serious second-generation fracas in the congress and it is unlikely that both Girija babu and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai would want to invite this at this juncture.

The fact remains that Girija Koirala is the strongest in the congress central committee and in the parliamentary committee and thus refuses to budge. But, this very fact has succeeded in isolating the elected government. The isolation of Girija babu is complete.

It is this that suggests that a breaking point in Nepal's brittle democracy has arrived. The image of a lone Girija tackling the country's pressing problems with a fragmented political party providing synthetic majority in parliament is hardly conducive to a democracy threatened by an all-round non-performance and challenged by the Maoists' insurgency. The power game is likely to shift in anticipation of the fiscal session of parliament. A non-performing parliament as witnessed in the winter session is very likely.

And then?

This politics of stalemate is being capitalized upon by the Maoists movement. The virtual breakdown of law and order is being provided opportunity for reprieve by the insurgents who are now said to be in effective control of a third of Nepal's seventy-five districts.

Curiously, the issue of Army mobilization and the reluctance of the Army to take on the insurgence in the absence of parliamentary consensus took a back seat last week. The Girija lobby appears not to have been successful in budging the Army from its stance regardless of charges from the Girija media of alleged links between the monarchy and the Maoists; the Army and the monarchy and the Maoists and the Army.

Serious constitutional issues have been scratched at the moment outside the Maoists movement and the moral implications of the Lauda air deal. There is the fact of course, of constitutional jurisdiction between the CIAA and the elected government. But there is also the obviously somber matter of what to do with the citizenship bill now that the apex court has decided that its inclusion in the finance bill is unconstitutional and that the citizenship bill brings the constitution under review. The finance bill is by convention approved by parliament and by the monarchy.

These very fragile issues apart, a non-functioning government mired in internal conflict and pounced upon by all sectors outside its immediate lobby compound the state of affairs in the country. The delay in decisions regarding the Maoists solution, for example, is beginning to provoke other more serious questions regarding government intent. What, for example, happens if the military is invited in too late?/ Is it that the ultimate solution to the Maoists issue is sought from the inclusion of the Indian military in the movement?/ Is, for that matter, the systematic emasculation of the Royal Nepal airliner designed to ground Nepal's direct international air links? Are, as another example, the anticipated street-designs of the opposition provoked by the government wooing a B'desh type state of affairs to abort the scheduled visit this month of the Chinese Prime Minister Rongji?

These are not negligible possibilities in the context of continuing conspiracies in a region which has just witnessed the largest Indian military exercise said to be aimed at Pakistan and China at a time when India after hosting the Russian Federation foreign minister Mr. Ivanov and is all set to play host to senior American military personals amidst shifts in postures and alignments.

CIAA not happy with Koirala's blunt response: What next?

Kathmandu: Nepal's tormented and conspiratorial politics took a new turn when the Lauda fraud investigating authority CIAA sent five sealed questions last week to the sitting Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala asking him to provide the details in answer form regarding the procurement of the Lauda air.

Quite imaginably, the airtight questions at first might have disturbed the peace of minds of the Prime Minister and a practically a "nervous" Koirala expressed his "desire" to quit from the chair.

However, this was not to happen.

His close aides including the "inner exclusive organization" or say the coterie that comprises mainly of his family men and near and dear distant relatives, brushed aside the five pertinent questions asked to the Prime Minister by the CIAA and even dared to proclaim that the entire "game-plan" of the CIAA had been to "sabotage democracy" so nicely protected by their man that is Prime Minister Koirala. A clear cut challenge to the constitutional authority that the CIAA enjoys unconditionally.

Some in the coterie even went to the extent to say that the "CIAA under the instigation of some powerful quarters managed to malign the prestige of the Prime Minister and that such activities bode ill for the nation and the democratic system as well".

"I see a grand drawing in all these affairs aimed at destabilizing the Prime Minister and the system", said an infuriated junior Koirala who happens to be one of the closest relative of the sitting Prime Minister. Junior Koirala is one among those many who comprise Koirala's mini kitchen cabinet, it is widely talked.

Likewise, Shailaja Acharya-the niece of the Prime Minister, too instantly perceived "a threat to democracy" the moment she learnt of the five questions from the CIAA approaching the Prime Minister.

" There has been a calculated plan to malign the prestige and popularity of the Prime Minister. Those who were involved in this game wish the system going to the dogs", hints Shailaja Acharya.

Add to this the "priceless" suggestions offered to Prime Minister Koirala by his close "ministers" in the cabinet and also by the influential set of the so-called "congress literati" in which all apparently have suggested the Prime Minister to consider the questions of the CIAA not more than a piece of paper which could in no way be considered worth seriously pondering over.

All these "valuable" suggestions put together emboldened the sitting Prime Minister to "challenge" even the authority of the Commission to ask questions to him of the sort mentioned in the letter sent by the commission a week back.

"'The Commission possess no right to ask questions that come under the straight jurisdiction of the executive that is the government "', is the gist of what the Prime Minister replied to the CIAA through a letter sent last Thursday.

The CIAA upon receiving the somewhat ungraceful answers from the Prime Minister too apparently is in a fix on how to retort back or leave it as it is. Himalayan question indeed.

"'We have received the Prime Ministerial answers to our questions. However, we will later decide on how to treat the answers supplied by Girija Prasad Koirala", say the members of the Commission.

Reports have it that the CIAA which sits today to discuss over Koirala's letter will decide whether to remain satisfied with those answers or summon the Prime Minister for a detailed interrogation at its office.

High placed sources say that the CIAA is not at all happy with the kind of response Koirala has sent to the Commission and chances were brighter that the investigating authority will acquire a hard posture against the Prime Minister in the coming days. The CIAA apparently should have been emboldened by Bhattarai's "kind" words made in favor of the commission.

It will have to be watched how the CIAA takes up the matter regarding Koirala's rough and tough answers sent to them in response of their five questions.

However, the fact is that the people wish to see the CIAA performing its duties in a courageous manner caring little whom it is interrogating and what would be its implications tomorrow.

If it does so, it would definitely bag accolades from the entire population.

Koirala detractors wish to cash CIAA initiatives: wage a crusade

Kathmandu: Hardly had the Lauda investigating authority served few questions to the sitting prime Minister, Girija Prasad Koirala, the rival faction in the congress picked up the issue and managed its grand propaganda indicating all and sundry that it was the right and opportune moment to take an "appropriate revenge" from a Prime Minister who had caused their government's to die a premature death at previous occasions.

Understandably and quite imaginably, the men in Koirala's rival camp led by two Prime Ministers, Sher Bahadur Deuba and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai who had been the visible and naked victim of Koirala's machinations became suddenly active and made it a point to cash in on the CIAA's letter to the hilt.

In the process, Sher Bahadur Deuba wasted no time and issued rather a polite and modest statement suggesting Koirala to "resign" to save his long and "illustrious" career albeit in the congress and the national politics.

Interpretation might differ from person to person, however, the gist of Deuba's statement summarily sought Prime Minister Koirala's resignation which also implied that should the latter resign the road for him would be clear to assume the chair at the moment occupied by his "declared rival"'.

Not surprising therefore, only a day before the CIAA served questions to Koirala, a beaming Deuba in his home constituency surprised many a brains there at a hurriedly summoned congress gathering wherein he divulged the secret that the "nation is awaiting to hand over the mantle of power on to his shoulders and that the time had come that he would assume power".

It is puzzling, however, as to how Deuba who was not in Kathmandu could "guess" that the CIAA is all set to harass Koirala with the five point sealed questions.

Well, this is Nepal's conspiratorial politics. We have taken it for granted for obvious reasons.

Yet another seasoned politician who "utilised" the event Koirala being served the questions by the CIAA to the maximum was none less than former Prime Minister K.P.Bhattarai who apparently felt that it was time to play villain to his nearest and dearest rival Koirala much the same fashion as the latter had pulled the carpet under his feet which caused formers' regime to collapse.

To recall, it was a jarringly weeping K.P. Bhattarai who said good bye to the nation last year when his "friend" Koirala brought down his regime so mercilessly and unceremoniously.

"My contention has come to true that Koirala is involved in the Lauda air deal has been further testified by the CIAAs letter sent in the name of the Prime Minister", said a beaming Bhattarai in a statement after the CIAA sent the sealed letter to the Prime Minister.

"It is really unfortunate to know that instead of helping the authority in the Lauda affair, the Prime Minister through his reply to the questions posed by the Commission has dared to challenge the very authority of the Commission"', added Bhattarai in the statement.

Be that as it may, Bhattarai and Deuba's statement issued in the recent days apparently has emboldened all those declared Koirala detractors in the congress camp to make it a point to cash to the extent that a troubled and perplexed Koirala finally yields.

Quite understandably, this is what the entire opposition demands.

Meanwhile, the opposition led by the UML is all set to chart some other "forceful initiatives" in order to force Prime Minister Koirala to resign. The programs reportedly will be made public in the impending days.

Unconfirmed reports have it that some of the enthusiasts in the congress camp have already begun to capture the signatures of those congress lawmakers who wish to see the abrupt downfall of Koirala regime for good. A no confidence motion against Koirala can't be ruled yet another round at the congress parliamentary party at first and then the same at the Parliament in cooperation with the opposition. However, the fact is that Koirala enjoys comfortable majority in the parliamentary party.

This means that the anti-Koirala lobby in the congress in full cooperation with the opposition forces would proceed with full speed in order to force Koirala to quit the chair.

However, Almighty has been kind to Koirala. At least till the Chinese Prime Minister is in Nepal, his chair will remain safe.

Imaginably, the efforts to destabilize Koirala will begin instantly Premier Rongzhi is out of the Nepali sky.

This finally means that the impending budget session too would be packed with hair raising events and ugly scenes, which hopefully would entertain men within and without.

Paris based RSF favors STNs early broadcast

Kathmandu : In a letter addressed last week to the Nepalese Minister of Information and Communication, Shiva Raj Joshi, Reporters Sans Frontières (Reporters Without Borders ­ RSF based in France) expressed its concern about the decision of the authorities not to deliver authorization to the Space Time Network (STN) for broadcasting its programmes via satellite.

The RSF has asked the Minister to allow the STN to broadcast its programmes freely to foreign countries.

Robert Ménard, the general secretary of the organisation, underlined that the "government must respect the Constitution of Nepal that guarantees press freedom".
According to the information collected by RSF, says the RSF, the Information and Communication Ministry has prevented the private media group Space Time Network (STN) from extending its activities to the broadcasting of its programmes via Thai Com satellite. STN, already an operator of cable television and publisher of a free and independent broad sheet daily, planned to broadcast programmes from 14 April last month after the signing of a business agreement with Thai Com managers.

STN is expected to cover 52 countries of the globe and is hoped to be entertained by millions and millions of the Nepalese living outside the country.

To recall, two days before the launching of the broadcast, the ministry required from STN a complete list of the equipment used for such broadcasting. Since then, the ministry has not authorised the broadcast.

The victim of the government's whimsical decision, is Monsieur Jamim Shah, the managing director of the STN, who expressed his utter surprise regarding this obstruction decided two days before the launching while the event had been announced a month earlier. Recently, the parliamentary Communication and Development Commission asked the minister to take a decision within two weeks.

The statement of the RSF has been issued by the International Secretariat Asia ­ Pacific Desk on the eve of the International Press day.

The RSF address in France is as follows: 5 rue Geoffroy Marie - 75009 Paris, France

Timing of Premier Rongzhi's Nepal visit is significant

Kathmandu: The approaching friendly visit of the Chinese Prime Minister Jzu Rongzhi beginning early next week is taking shape at a time when Nepal's internal politics is under tremendous strain.

The Chinese dignitary's decision to include Nepal in his tour of some of the Asian countries this round becomes also very much significant in the sense that Premier Rongzhi is not visiting neighboring India for reasons unknown to Kathmandu intellectuals.

The visit of the Chinese Premier comes close on the heels of a short trip of the Russian Federation foreign minister, Mr.Igor Ivanov, to Delhi wherein during his stay there he said assessing President Putin's India visit accomplished last year that (sic): " during that visit in October 2000, Russia and India signed a solid package of documents on cooperation in very diverse fields, 18 in all, including the fundamental document for bilateral relations-the declaration on strategic partnership between our countries".

Immediately after RF minister's visit, India managed a sort of huge military exercise called "complete victory" at the border close to neighboring Pakistan.

This military exercise, say Nepali intellectuals, could be an Indian message to Pakistan in particular and China in general with whom the former not enjoys that much of cordial relations.

The Indian military exercise is also timed with Premier Rongzhi's Asian trip, which makes it more meaningful, and worth pondering over. The first ever-biggest military show of strength conducted by India might have sent chilling waves in the minds of the leaders of the smaller nations in South Asia undoubtedly. With two of the South Asian neighbors of the SAARC arrangement already becoming nuclear forces the smaller nations in the vicinity are forced to think over a separate formulae on how to minimize the security risks or threats collectively.

On the other hand, this visit is also coming close when the United States is busy in bagging support from prominent nations in favor of its new proposal on Nuclear Missile Defence or otherwise the NMD. Most interestingly, an India that every time rejected summarily such American proposals at time of the Cold War era has hinted the US of its support to the schemes of NMD matters.

It should be noted here that opposition to the new US move comes from China and unbelievably from America's time tested European allies. Vocal among the European nations against the NMD issue is Germany notably.

So far as Russian Federation is concerned, the foreign minister in Delhi did not disclose as to how it views the NMD. He however, said that the ABM treaty is the basis for maintaining and strengthening international security and that what President Bush has announced is of a political nature. Any conclusion on that could be made only after further consultations especially on the technical aspects"'.

To put it mildly, Russian Federation opposes the US move, which sidelines the ABM treaty.

To boot, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Henry Shelton is expected to visit India shortly possibly before the end of this month. Some experts also predict the initiation of a defense cooperation between India and United States.

How Premier Rongzhi has taken up the US new initiative would perhaps be clear when he meets the Nepali press during his stay here. It would also be important to read China's mood in the emerging US-India axis so far as the NMD is concerned. The fact is that there is already the existence of India-RF axis. India, undoubtedly, heavily relies on the RF for the supply of arms.

Be that as it may, what is for sure is that China of late has started taking "greater interest" in Nepal perhaps for strategic reasons.

The Nepalese side hopes that this trip would immensely benefit Nepal's lame-duck tourism industry as China is all set to declare Nepal a "tourist destination". Apart from these, the visit is expected to give a real boost to the Trade and commerce of the country.

Informed sources say that China might exhibit its displeasure over the 14 th Karmapa sneaking to India late last year using Nepali territory.

Only recently, Karmapa divulged that he spent a night in Nagarkot, a valley close to the Nepali capital prior to fleeing to India-his final destination.

BOOK OF THE WEEK.

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