Indepth Analysis

Bundh signals sudden collapse imminent!

Kathmandu: The near total closure of the country this week manifests the increasing inability of political authority to provide the requisites of the government in the face of any street campaign. It also manifests the degree of desperation among the opposition Left that compels it to demonstrate its presence regardless of the inconvenience to the lay public of a campaign that shuts-down the provision of all the basic necessities four days in a week. The congress clearly is unable to prevent disorder and the Left can't but promote disorder. The state of the nation is thus out of order.

Amidst the threat and attraction of cadre generated by the Maoists campaign, amidst the disorder a state of limbo hangs in the country leaving people squarely out of the political process making a mockery of the participation demanded from the people by democracy. The prime factor here remains the political organizations that must be nurtured by government resources and so the street campaign is likely to escalate on part of the opposition organizations' while the government organizations' must insist on controlling these resources citing the legitimacy by a majority in parliament in our electoral democracy.

One major happening gleaned from the street campaign is the clear division in political strategy between the Left and other political organizations in the country. The UML campaign has succeeded in garnering the participation and moral support of all Left organizations while the non-Left parties-the RPP and the Sadbhavana along with the congress remain opposed to the street campaign. Of course, the Maoists have their own agenda outside the street campaign and so their presence in the current agitation appears only understandable.

The RPP must of course maintain its own presence and so it has called for the resignation of Prime Minister Girija. This is not bereft of its own ambitions to be flipped into government. In case, Girija babu does not resign and the congress is unable to back another congress leader wholeheartedly, it is presumed that the RPP chairman Surya Bahadur Thapa could also be blesses with the essential external support that today assumes a major role in making of the Nepalese Prime Minister.

It is this external support that must be watched. As Kathmandu rumor mills go, a sudden stop-over at New Delhi by foreign minister Chakra Bastola prevented, it is said, a Girija resignation and secured the necessary assurances that prompt his adamant stand today. Prime Minister Girija has parliamentary majoruty and so he can remain the constitutional head of the government regardless of the street campaign against him. As widely accepted perhaps even the anti-corruption authorities have refrained from involving him (explicitly) in the much talked about Lauda corruption case. To boot, Girija babu is now set to prove through the anti-corruption authorities themselves that the opposition, the UML, is as corrupt as they allege him to be by taking up the China South West airline case. The public at large, on the other hand, is not beyond comprehending the nature and scope of corruption in the political process. It is they who are more exposed to the corruption at the grass roots in which all major political parties are involved one way or the other. They are, however, aware that it is these political parties that hold monopoly of the political process. Given the breakdown in law and order, even minor movements have succeeded in closing traffic and shops in the country. The success of the UML program is to no one's surprise. The only difference is in the continuous closure for so many days.

If anything this week demonstrates both the breakdown of law and order in the country and the degree of desperation in the political organizations. These key indicators by no means bode well for the country. The collapse will perhaps be more sudden than expected.

Congress politics: Khadka offered sweets

Kathmandu: The Himalayan efforts of the entire Left Opposition under the UML command to unseat Prime Minister Koirala from his current post has gone to the dogs.

Instead of becoming nervous with the Left sponsored three-day bundh in series that paralyzed the whole nation mercilessly, Prime Minister Koirala has tentatively decided to continue in his "most beloved chair" by devising new strategies.

Baluatar sources say that these strategies include effecting a major reshuffle in the lame-duck cabinet and giving a full shape to the congress central committee that could still house some more members of Koirala's choice or the chums of his declared detractors from well within the party.

The third ploy that the Koirala camp has under its sleeve is to "hypnotize" Khum Bahadur Khadka so that the latter joins the cabinet and thus Koirala's rivals fall flat.

The whole gameplan of the Koirala coterie, claims a Deuba supporter, is to divert the attention of the national population in particular and the congressmen in general from his "subtle" involvement in the Lauda procurement deal and the subsequent criticisms that have followed after the CIAAs final conclusions made public last Friday.

Regarding the urgency of having clandestine deals with Khum Bahadur Khadka, the Koirala camp believes that if Khadka adds to their strength by being in their camp, the possibility of a no-confidence motion against Koirala from the parliamentary party could well be safely averted. Khadka is talked to enjoy the confidence of scores of party lawmakers who could play an instrumental role either in the breaking or of the making of Koirala.

In the process, our own source claims, the Koirala clique has already advanced sweets to Mr. Khadka which have come in the form of elevating "'Khadka" to the ranks of the Home Minister currently being enjoyed by Ram Chandra Poudel.

However, a clever Khadka knows where to pinch Koirala. In essence Khadka is demanding the posts of the DPM and the Home Ministry as well. Understandably, Prime Minister is not willing both the two powerful posts to Khadka.

This notwithstanding, the Deubaites still consider Khadka as their man. However, he is not.

Khadka belongs to post whosoever offers him and his lust for posts has been exhibited many a times in the past.

The fact is that Koirala will prefer to elevate his brother Sushil to the DPM post. And strategies are being devised to press DPM Poudel to resign.

A clever Poudel understands the designs being woven against him and hence he too has advanced the theory that if he is awarded Party General Secretary post, he could resign from both the posts: the DPM and Home Ministry.

Those who understand Koirala better say that Koirala will not resign till he manages lucrative and higher posts for his near and distant relatives for he knows now that it would be his last exit.

Clean chit or indirect implication?
CIAAs conclusion invite various interpretations

Kathmandu: The Lauda investigating authority-the CIAA- opened the Pandora's box. All sorts of evils have come out. However, this time the box managed to kick out a few noted corrupts of the country, more so seated in the RNAC, who had been gulping the "monetary gains" from the airliner in the name of the wet lease whether it be of the Lauda or the China South West airliner deal.

Thanks the CIAA that daringly even implicated subtly a sitting Prime Minister of the nation and served a sort of "warning" to the high post of the Premier suggesting him not to "repeat" such mistakes or even "blunders".

Interpretations may vary from person to person. It could also be given a twist suiting to one's political affiliations. But the fact is that the Prime Minister has not been spared from the Lauda scam.

"Thanks the CIAA that it honored the post of the nation's Premier or it could have implicated the occupant of the post in the said deal and produced at the Apellate court of Patan district", said a Lawyer to this paper.

However, the lawyer added that if the CIAA had directly mentioned the name of Koirala, a sort of anarchy would have instantly prevailed in the nation. "What the CIAA did at this critical juncture is simply what should have been done", the lawyer further said.

Other constitutional experts and renowned lawyers of the nation think that the court can still summon Prime Minister for interrogation should the court decide to do so.

The general impression is that the Prime Minister must not feel that he has been awarded a sort of "clean chit". But instead the Premier has been "warned". There is a big difference in the use of the two set of different words indeed.

"A person is warned for his conduct(s) only when the person in the past has committed mistakes. So this warning to the Prime Minister has been served by the CIAA to make him feel that he did wrong and that from now onwards he would refrain from repeating past mistakes of the sort made in the Lauda air deal", commented a constitutional expert on condition of anonymity.

Contrary to this naked truth, a set of Prime Minister's close aides like minister Govind Raj Joshi, Mahesh Acharya and brother Sushil prefer to interpret in a different manner.

It is this set that tells Koirala that the CIAA gave him a clean chit and that he need not resign.

Undoubtedly, it is this special set which is to benefit if Koirala continues as Premier.

Social mobilization is key to poverty alleviation

-Nihal Rodrigo, SAARC

Kathmandu: A ministerial level consultation on the UNDP supported South Asia Poverty Alleviation Programme (SAPAP) was held here last week on 24 May 2001. The consultation was held to identify the achievements, challenges and discuss the future plans for SAPAP. The representatives attended the consultation from all SAARC Countries.

In his opening remarks, H.E. Mr. Nihal Rodrigo, SAARC Secretary General said that it was a decade ago that the SAARC summit in Colombo recognized that poverty could be dealt with if the poor are mobilized and that social mobilization is key to poverty alleviation. He said, "This meeting to discuss the progress of SAPAP and to see how the SAPAP model can be replicated is well timed. The Finance Minister's meeting in Colombo in June will take up this issue."

Dr. Henning Karcher, UNDP Resident Representative in Nepal in his opening remarks said that in 1993, the SAARC countries made a pledge to eradicate the worst forms of poverty by 2002 based on social mobilisation. He said, "The year 2002 is around the corner, but the objective of poverty alleviation is still illusive. Forty percent of South Asians live on less than US $ 1 a day." But negating the projection of only gloom and doom, he added, "A lot is also happening. In keeping with the SAARC Declaration of 1993, UNDP took up the challenge to demonstrate that people need help to organise and transform their lives. In six SAARC countries (Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan)we are working with 130,000 households. In Nepal decentralisation and social mobilisation have become the back-bones of Nepal's poverty alleviation strategy." Dr. Karcher added, "We need to build alliances and coalitions to take the message of social mobilisation to all parts of the region. The poor have kept their part of the bargain but we still have to keep ours."

Mr. Shoaib Sultan Khan, Senior Advisor SAPAP, speaking from his long experience in forming organisations of the poor in South Asia, pointed out that all the poor need is a support organisation to unleash their potential

A visibly moved Shiela Menike from Nuwara Eliya district in Sri Lanka said, "It is because of the strength I feel inside that I am now in your midst talking about my experiences." The rural people in Sri Lanka who did not have access to information, technology and markets, now have increased access, incomes and increased awareness on health and nutritional issues.

Mr. Muhammad Azam Khan, Former Chief Secretary, the Govt. of NWFP in Pakistan, spoke on future plans for regional action.

Who forced Chataut to go underground?

Kathmandu: Leaving all and sundry to guess about his whereabouts, the former Tourism Minister who finalized the Lauda air deal, Tarini Datt Chataut, is missing.

To recall, Chataut is one whose Passport has been confiscated by the CIAA and also has been told not to leave the valley without notifying the authority.

Chataut's sudden preference to go in for a long "hibernation" has raised several questions regarding his motive behind such an abrupt decision.

Chataut is considered to be one of the prime convicts in this Lauda air procurement deal. He, however, says that whatever he did was all under the instructions of the cabinet headed by Prime Minister Koirala.

High placed sources claim that Chataut has deliberately been asked to "vanish" from Kathmandu hum-bug till things settle in the favor of all those who have been wrapped by the CIAA last Friday.

Undenyingly, it is Chataut and Chataut only who knows better the "personality or even personalities in garb" who successfully "used" him to proceed with the Lauda procurement come what may.

It is this fear that prompted those men in garb to seduce Chataut to go underground.

Interestingly, the Nepali police which could trace the location of RDX gelatine in Kathmandu has till now failed to locate the hide-outs of Chataut.

However, Left newspapers claim that they "talked" to Chataut Monday evening wherein the latter posed that he was a "heart patient" and had been under treatment of the same.

Chataut's mobile phone number is as follows: 98 10 33 46 7.

The million dollar question is why former minister Chataut preferred to go underground? Who advised him to do so? Will he come to the court voluntarily and divulge whatever secrets he possesses in his heart regarding the Lauda scam?

Legal experts opine that chances were very brighter for the smaller fishes (currently being interrogated by Patan court on the Lauda deal) of being freed by the appellate court because the cases framed by the CIAA against them were very "weak".

Undoubtedly, Chataut's revelations will give a new twist to the Lauda air affair.

UML in league with Koirala detractors!

Kathmandu: The UML and its allies have reasons to rejoice for the success it bagged during the just concluded three-day bundh.

However, the people at large too possess the rights to disagree with their claims.

In essence, bundhs in Nepal have lost their original charms. It is observed more under "threat" rather than voluntarily. People now think more of the deteriorating economy than listening to meaningless adventures through the radio and television or even through the press releases of the sponsors of the bundhs.

The gist is that the three-day bundh will not in any way deter Koirala from "not resigning" come what may. This means that the three-day ordeal endured by the lay and the non-partisan citizens under the whims of the UML and its allies have all gone to the dogs.

A badly frustrated UML will now opt for some other strategies to force Koirala to resign.

The moves apparently have already started. The UML leaders have already approached Deuba and Bhattarai.

Congress sources say that firstly the Deuba-Bhattarai combine will politely convince Koirala to resign and facilitate an amicable solution to the current crisis.

Secondly, if in case Koirala rejects their proposal, this lobby would yet again push the no confidence motion against Koirala. The lobby hopes that about 12 to 14 members in the current Koirala cabinet too have hinted the lobby that they would prefer to resign rather than to support a regime that has already lost its credibility and legitimacy in the eyes of the people.

The UML from its side, as per the rumor, will create havoc during the budget session much the same manner as it did in the recent past.

The idea is to harass Koirala to the extent that he resigns voluntarily.

However, Koirala is made up of a different stuff. Devising strategies or ploys to unseat Koirala from the chair is one thing, unseating him from the chair in effect is entirely different.

Destructive minds always think of destruction. Both ways, the nation will have to pay. The adamancy seen in both the quarters perhaps is inviting the sudden and unpredictable collapse of the order itself.

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