Everlasting peace or permanent chaos!

Nepal as a nation-state at the moment come into view to be in a cross-road of events that could either lead it in a everlasting peace or just the otherwise. Indications to this effect become visible if one goes deep into the present stillness seen in the existing national politics and the manner there is a total stoic noiselessness over the much expected and publicized third round of talks in between the establishment and the Maoists insurgency. The nonchalance so far exhibited by the Maoists quarters for the third round of negotiations with the government bode ill not only for the government but for the insurgency as well ultimately. However, the disinclination seen in the insurgent quarters for talks also concurrently mean that the insurgents could be thinking to deal with the establishment in a way perhaps not even some in the establishment might have in their imagination. To make it clear, as some security analysts predict, the silence in the Maoists quarters could be that they were at the moment in the process of "conserving energy" to face the government security machinery in a big way should the latter outrightly reject some of their "basic" stipulations. Or the unnecessary delay in the talks could also have been caused by the abruptly changed political scenario" in and around the region and the globe at large more so after the September 11 events in the United States. Predictably, the Maoists quarters must have engaged themselves in arriving at a conclusion on how to present themselves at the talks given the changed scenario in order that their basic demands get through at the talks without much hubbub. However, the fact is that the establishment has repeatedly told the other camp that what constituted their main basic demand were all irrelevant for the government for it can not exceed its functions and cross the stipulated limits of the constitution. There has been a big "no" from the government side for the Maoists demand for the installation of the republicanism in the nation. This means that if the Maoists still stick to get their demands met with at the third round of talks then a sort of acidity will immediately grip the national politics which might facilitate the prevalence of an repellent situation in the country. It will now largely depend on both the negotiating parties whether they prefer the prevalence of a permanent sort of peace in the country or a situation, contrary to the previous one. If the latter become the fait accompli of the nation then the consequences could be guessed well in advance indeed. Not very surprisingly, the majority of the national population will in that case curse both the negotiating parties for their dismal failure in giving peace a place in the country. In this case, the Deuba setup will be forced to resign by his own party men and concurrently the insurgents will be dubbed as men against peace.

The people need peace. The people long for peace. How peace is to be restored in the Kingdom is perhaps a matter now entirely taken into account by the negotiating parties.

Maoist' cadres not in grip of its own top hats?

Our attention has also been drawn towards the manner some of the Maoists cadres have been indulging in anti-social activities inspite of the fact that a sort of cease-fire has been agreed upon by the establishment and the insurgent quarters till the negotiation going in between them comes to a happy conclusion. However, the fact is that the establishment's rough and tough attitude towards the Maoists quarters do not come to our notice as alleged by the latter. On the contrary, the highhandedness at times exhibited by the insurgents' quarters in the recent days amply reveal that the Maoists at the grassroots level were not that much happy with the ongoing "peace talks" with the government or at best wish status quo in their activities. A corollary to this could also be drawn. Either the lower rung Maoists cadres were not at all in the grips of their top-hats at the center or they have determined to continue the "people's war" even if their commanders arrive at a formulae and join the national political mainstream at a later stage albeit after the conclusion of the ongoing talks. This leads us to a third conclusion in the form of a prediction. Will it not be possible for a small chunk of the hard core Maoists cadre to enter into the jungles and create the same sort of chaos as had been created by the previous united strength of the same insurgent force? It is possible indeed. The manner a section of the Maoists have been continuing to engage themselves in acts of abduction, terror and the likes amply suggests that things will not settle for good even if the top hats of the insurgency come for a compromise with the government. This also means that some how or the other this nation will ever remain engaged in dealing with insurgencies of the sort of the present Maoists issue.

All put together, Nepal's politics apparently will continue to be bogged down in settling the issues one after another which means that no development efforts could take a concrete shape for years and years. The ultimate scenario would perhaps be the mass exodus of the Nepali citizens to alien lands thus inviting aliens to fill in the gap of the fleeing Nepali population. Hair raising and terrible fact indeed.

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