Indepth Analysis

Challenge real to Deuba days in government!

Kathmandu: So much is being written of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's hundred days in office that the writings themselves reflect eroding support from particularly the congress media. It is this that is significant. Opposition to Deuba from partisan media would be expected of the UML and the ML papers given that the prolonged talks with the Maoists have been at the cost of these left parties. The surfacing of the Maoists in course of the talks have allowed them major gains in the overt recruitment of the grassroots of the "establishment" Left. It is no surprising therefore that the UML leadership now willing to acknowledge publicly that the Maoists are terrorists.

The ML on the other hand demand quick resolutions of the talks but retain their preference for an all party government that will bring the necessary cohesion in order to accommodate the Maoists. ML workers too are the targets of Maoists organizations but they fall less victims as reports tend to show. There is meaning then when Prime Minister Deuba does not root out the possibility of an all party government.

Equally meaningful is the unhesitating denial by Deuba's party chief and rival Girija Prasad Koirala of the need for such all-party government. Even Deuba mentor Krishna Prasad Bhattarai does not want such government. The congress majority in parliament, to them, should be used to the full. In this sense, then, it appears that standpoints are hardening within the congress. Deuba's opposition there is now ready to pounce upon his alleged inaction. Having exhausted his accommodative card in the JUMBO cabinet reshuffle his antagonists are now aligned to shift support. It is this that provokes them to term Deuba's hundred days in office a ''dismal failure".

Key to this allegation is the virtual absence of returns from the talks with the Maoists. Growing public disenchantment at the talks must be cashed in upon. Deuba I currently being portrayed as a weak and indecisive prime minister who is playing into the hands of the Maoists. Adding to this desperation is the strong tirade from the Left parties against both Deuba and the Maoists which, coupled with the growing threat from the Girija lobby, is likely to press Deuba hard. Whether he will last until the winter session is something currently being talked of.

Obviously, it is the Maoists talks that will be watched. The collapse of the law and order situation has reached new heights on account of the indecision related to the government approach to the Maoists. The holiday season has added to the virtual standstill of the government offices. The active steps that the Deuba cabinet instituted in its initial days regarding land reforms, scheduled castes and Kamaiya liberation has appeared incomplete and contributes to the confusion. Deuba's hundred days has added to the chaos rather than control it. On the overall, the country is poised for more turmoil. It will perhaps take the conclusion of the festival days to demonstrate.

Strip News:
Government benefits from UML-Maoists war of words!

Kathmandu: If one were to believe the government quarter assertion regarding the cause for the delay in the convening of the third round of talks with the Maoists, what comes to the fore is that it is due to the other camps' "lackluster" which is causing the delay. In effect, the government side has been giving the laymen the impression that it is the other camp, which apparently is not prepared for the talks. This means that the establishment under Sher Bahadur Deuba is ready for the talks should the Maoists send the signal for the resumption of the now stalled talks.

However, the fact is that the Maoists camp rejects this theory. This quarter maintains that it is the government which in effect is causing the unessential delay for the talks. The Maoists also allege that the government is yet to meet some of their demands, for example, making public the whereabouts of some of their workers now in dungeon and above all scrapping up of the public security regulations plus bringing back the already deployed military men in the districts to their respective barracks.

Added to this the Maoists quarter also alleges the government side that the latter is unilaterally using the media under its control to malign the prestige and popularity of the former.

Whether the government media institutions' divulgence of recent Maoists excesses were real or fake one as asserted by the Maoists, the fact is that some innocent civilians in the districts have already lost their precious lives and that too at time of the festivals.

In real terms, the laymen had expected that the cease-fire arrived at in between the two, the establishment and the insurgents, will allow them to enjoy the festival season free from any panic and any untoward incidents, however, the fact is that things were just the otherwise.

Some even analyzed that the Maoists quarters unilaterally broke the already agreed upon cease-fire scheme which tentatively said that it will continue till the talks arrived at a happy conclusion.

The Maoists quarters summarily clarify the happening of such sporadic sad events by saying that they had only assured the establishment that they will not initiate "physical attacks" during this cease-fire period and that they had not told the government that they would totally abandon the use of the bullets.

What is not clear to us all is that what had been contained in the agreement for neither the government nor the Maoists made their agreement public for laymen's consumption.

This notwithstanding, the Maoists of late, for reasons unknown to Kathmandu political watchers, have made their targets at the workers and leaders of the UML party. Not very surprisingly therefore the UML now dubs the Maoists insurgency as a terrorist outfit instead what it used to call the same till a few months back as an political entity.

Be that as it may, the recent attacks on the UML workers has come after the UML leader met Prachanda in India's Siliguri and summarily rejected comrade Prachanda's line of political thinking and made it known to all and sundry that the nation still needed constitutional monarchy and that the formation of a republican order in Nepal could be a paranoid affair at the moment.

Undoubtedly, annoyed by comrade Madhav Nepal's blunt rejection of his scheme of political things, newspapers close to comrade Prachanda instantly dubbed Madhav Nepal as to have become the second Dr. K.R. Rayamajhi.

Understandably, Madhav Nepal must not have taken comrade Prachanda's allegations against him in a good taste and hence the former started tirade against the Maoists insurgency to the extent that his party has started a sort of "ideological program" to counter the theory at the moment close to the hearts of the Maoists leadership.

To a greater extent, the sporadic clashes going on in between the Maoists and the UML is hitting the media headlines which to some extent has overshadowed the yet to be materialized government-Maoists third round of talks.

To cut it short, the government must have benefited from Maoists-UML tussle. UML sympathy for obvious reasons would go in all out support of the government which internally, we are told, remains totally prepared to face the Maoists threats should the third round of talks gets delayed or even the talks failed.

Now it all depends on how the Maoists quarter present themselves at the impending round of negotiations. If they abandon some of their demands which, according to Sher Bahadur Deuba, can't be discussed even, the talks could come to a happy conclusion. If it is just the otherwise, the consequences could be predicted in advance.

Fortunately, the newspapers close to Maoists camp reveal that the insurgents were in the process of arriving Kathmandu for the talks. Equally pleasing is the fact that the government side claims it is prepared for the resumption of the talks.

Box News:
Bid to dislodge Deuba on; Koirala benefits from Deuba weaknesses

Kathmandu: Former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and the congress party chief has become totally restive.

He has reasons to be impatient. For he knows what the Prime Ministerial chair means for a personality of his stature who has in all along these past twelve democratic years occupied this prestigious chair for himself. However, the fact is that the nation under him could not do better and hence his repeated bouncing back to power must not have come as a pleasant affair for the lay men save his cronies and henchmen. His penchant for the chair is limitless, say his own compatriots.

A close look at his recent fiery and significant utterances made whether regarding Deuba's completion of hundred days honey-moon in office or his "snail pace" seen in sorting out the Maoists imbroglio, all hint that Koirala as the party chief too has a limit to bear Deuba as nation's Prime Minister.

"The party has given full mandate to Deuba for arriving at a solution to the Maoists issue. However, the Prime Minister appears to be trembling", said Koirala recently hinting at the "political stamina" of his nearest and dearest political rival.

At yet another point Koirala made this comment.

He says: " Till some time back, the Maoists had upper hands. Now that the situation has changed. the hands of the government has gone up and hence the establishment must deal with the Maoists with stick in its hand".

Somewhere near his hometown Koirala recently declared in front of his party men that "he would lead the partymen against the Maoists violence". He also appealed his men to rally behind him in his bid to root out the menace of what he prefers to call "terrorism"'.

Regarding the performance of Deuba in office for all along hundred days, the thespian leader possess no sympathy.

"I wouldn't assess his hundred days in office. I leave it to you all to assess", said Koirala in a mood that in no way could be portrayed as pleasant.

Just opposite is K.P.Bhattarai's reading of Deuba's first honeymoon days in government.

"Hundred days are not enough. I will give him full one year and then will comment", said a clever Bhattarai. In essence, Bhattarai wished to hint Koirala that Deuba's performances were far better that Koirala's while being in government.

In the same vein, Deuba and Koirala sharply differ on count of the possibility of the formation of a "government" as wished by the Maoists.

Says Deuba: "If the Maoists wish to enter into the main political stream, a sort of "joint" or for that matter "an all party government" at the center could well be formed and that the constitution allowed to do so.

To recall, the Maoists have in their agenda the formation of "an interim government" to begin with should the talks succeed.

However, Koirala rejects Deuba theory and hints the other side that the party will in no way allow the latter to do so. To recall, the government negotiators too subscribe to Deuba theory to the utter dismay and displeasure of Koirala and his lobbyists. Unfortunately, one of Deuba's unquestionable friend, K.P.Bhattarai too supports Koirala line. Bhattarai says that since the party is in majority in the parliament and hence it should enjoy a full term in office. Must have come as a penalty for Deuba.

Some analysts in congress quarters maintain that Deuba's days in government were numbered.

"The talks are being unnecessary delayed. The Maoists have not stopped their violent activities even at time of the agreed upon cease-fire. The UML is simply annoyed with the Deuba set-up for its men are being reportedly killed by the insurgents. More so Koirala has already started picking up those men who feel that they have been sidelined at time of the cabinet expansion. Add to this the UML's declaration that the government remains averse to the killings. All put together comes out a picture which in no way supported Deuba, politically speaking", said a congressite who prefers to claim that he is a supporter of Koirala.

"What will happen if the UML out of frustration or by design begin supporting Koirala"'? asked a Koirala loyalist to this scribe when the former was asked to give his opinion on whether he saw the possibility of the UML extending its clandestine support to Koirala.

"You can't dismiss UML's role in Nepali politics. Recall how the UML remained instrumental in dislodging Prime Minister Koirala from the chair. The UML option to play the same card remains perhaps open if the Maoists continue the killings of its cadres and the Deuba government fails to tame the Maoists threat", added the same source.

The fact is that unlike the UML, the laymen too now question Deuba's political acumen in bringing the insurgents to the main political stream. Neither Deuba has been able to curtail the Maoists violence nor he has succeeded in bringing them to the talks.

All these shortcomings and weaknesses seen in Deuba quarters at the moment will definitely benefit immensely the Koirala camp.

This means that the internal fight in the congress is on; the one to dislodge Deuba unceremoniously and the other on how to retain the seat.

Miscellaneous:
After Maoists, is it Khumbuwan?

Kathmandu: The ethnic tribes belonging to the eastern hills too apparently have become sensitive to their long-standing demands.

The KHUMBUWAN Liberation Front, KLF, which remained dormant during all along these democratic years apparently has come out of its slumber.

In their fresh bid to exhibit that their front was very much kicking and alive, the front reportedly killed some in that area whom it considered a threat to their organization.

However, the kinsmen of the innocent civilians who were killed by the men of the front say that they did not know for what fault their men were mercilessly killed.

The KLF, say analysts in Kathmandu, could well become a formidable threat to the state should they wish to continue their agitation and commit acts of the sort recently witnessed which took some of the precious lives.

In effect, the KLF men feel that their tribe has long been subject to oppression, exploitation and the likes by the ruling Brahminic, Chettri and Newar elites in Kathmandu.

During the erstwhile regime as well the KLF was in existence. However, till the system lasted, no major incident was carried out by the KLF for unknown reasons.

Strikingly enough, there are countless of ethnic tribes in Nepal who conclude that unless there is a major shakeup in the national politics and the men manning the national leadership at the center their fate will continue to remain hostage to the dictates of the above mentioned ruling elites.

Apart from this, there is yet another group whose abbreviation runs like this: SE-TE-MA-GU-RA-LI which respectively denotes tribes, for example, Sherpa, Tamang, Magar, Gurung, Rai and Limbu.

In fact, it is these ethnic tribes of Nepal who one way or the other have contributed to the past glory of the nation.

A sizeable chunk of this population from the Nepal's hilly areas have earned name and fame for the country by engaging themselves since long in the military services of various countries mainly in India and United Kingdom under certain treaty arrangements.

The sudden spurt seen in their violent activities should be given timely attention by the state. The state must listen to their genuine demands and initiate actions to redress those. Failing to do so on time might create yet another political entity of the sort of the Maoists.

Admittedly, the people in the hilly districts of the nation are illiterate, poverty stricken, jobless and land less. The basic infrastructure that a normal human being needs to sustain his or her life such as roads, health clinics, educational institutions, drinking water facilities were yet to reach to those areas and hence the agitation appears not that unjustifiable.

The option is with the government.

Will Khadka and Poudel back Deuba ad infinitum?

Kathmandu: When enough had been enough, the incumbent all-powerful Home Minister Khum Bahadur Khadka exploded the other day in Chitwan.

His lambasting at his own party men was to a greater extent genuine, politically speaking.

In doing so, minister Khadka apparently indicated his party men that as home minister he means business and that his voices should be taken gravely by all and sundry.

In effect, minister Khadka lambasted at his party leaders who for obvious reasons talk differently on Maoists issues which, according to minister Khadka, confused the party-government.

"The Nepali congress leadership is yet to arrive at a common thinking on how to deal and treat the Maoists. Our leaders talk differently about the Maoists, which more often than not embarrasses the government and poses problems at time of its dealing with the insurgents. We must be clear about the Maoists in the manner the UML leadership has already charted its "feeling" towards the Maoists", said an annoyed minister Khadka.

Minister Khadka's hint clearly were directed towards Koirala's changing versions regarding the Maoists of late and the government's dealing with them at the talks.

This means clearly that Khadka is still at a comfortable distance with president Koirala and his brother Sushil who only recently pressurized the government to make the third round of talks conclusive.

Adding more confusion to the already confused political atmosphere vis-à-vis the government-Maoists talks, former deputy prime minister Ram Chandra Poudel summarily rejected Koirala duo theory and instead told that what was important was not the conclusion of the talks with the Maoists rather the complete end of the violence after the talks.

This amply suggests that Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba continue to be clandestinely flanked by two superb political warriors of the sort of minister Khadka and Mr. R.C.Poudel which time permitting could be used against Koirala overtures aimed at dislodging the incumbent Deuba set.

That Deuba values his "personal rapport" with Poudel gets reflected from the manner the Deuba media machinery, indeed state controlled and dictated one, is propagating the news related to Poudel in the districts from where the latter is airing his total displeasure over Koirala duo statements.

Be that as it may, Deuba is a lame-duck Prime Minister indeed. Some of the ministers in his cabinet know how to exploit the emerging political situation in their favor. If one fine morning Koirala approached them with "sweets", their shaky allegiance to Deuba at the moment might swing to the opposite camp. More so, the Prime Minister will have to remain perhaps under a constant threat and that being to keep minister Khadka in good humor out of fear that his changing the camp might cause a total collapse of the present day Deuba regime.

The threat continues for Deuba.

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