Indepth Analysis

Maoists talk neither here nor there!

Kathmandu: The possibility of an interim, an all-party government with Maoists participation is imminent. At least, that is what appears to be the most immediate meeting points in the government-Maoists talks to be held any time now, as assured. After the Maoists have been made to drop their outstanding demands for a Republic and elections to the constituent assembly, as implied, the agenda for the talks would seem to have little other content. Demands for the release of each other's prisoners would be more in the realms of pre-conditions for talks rather than the agenda itself. Having demonstrated their willingness for such, the talks seem to have run out of any other agenda as such outside of the permanent conditions enabling the Maoists to participate in the political mainstream.

It is this that makes the possibility of an interim government real. There are actual benefits for such. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, for one, can adjust seats in his troubled Far Western strongholds with the Maoists in course of such agreements. The Maoists can take advantage of their now surfaced organization in benefiting from electoral gains on a platform of Republicanism and the constituent assembly. UML participation in such a pact would assure it post electoral representation. Their common and declared protagonists-congress strongman Girija Prasad Koirala would find himself disadvantaged.

It is this that makes the Girija lobby's shrill cries against any such interim government meaningful. Girija Prasad Koirala would want to oversee or, at least, have a say in any future elections. Any effort to elbow him out would mean an effort to undermine his organization. His supporters will consider this suicidal. The opposition to any such pact is likely to be very severe on part of the Girija lobby for one.

One can thus sense the crisis deepening in the ruling party and the Maoists talks. In case, the interim government is not allowed to emerge, the talks will have run out of the agenda. In case, the agenda is real, Deuba will not be allowed his party backing. In case, there is Maoists participation in an electoral government, the specter of the Maoists muscling into parliament in elections with a Republican and constituent assembly platform is real.

Why Maoists gave up demand for Republican order?

Kathmandu: Have the Maoists changed? Have the insurgents become frustrated of their continued stay in the jungles? Is it that the Maoists too have truly assessed the sudden change in the global scenario specially after the September 11 events in the United States and came to a conclusion that at least for the time being their ongoing "strategies" would not work? Or is it that they too long for a "face saving formulae"? And finally is it that the rebellions in the mean time have developed an altogether "new strategy" through the use of which they wish to keep the government engaged in the "peace-process" and consolidate their internal organization in order to face a possible "major military threat" should the talks fail? Some even ask as to whether the government was ready to face any such eventualities? Last but not the least some even doubt about the lower rung cadres of the insurgents complying to the dictates of their own top hats should the latter arrive at an amicable solution to the entire Maoists affair. Crux of the matter is "Will the grassroots cadres obey the commands of comrade Prachanda or for that matter of comrade Dr. Bhattarai"?

These were the basic questions that are being discussed in diplomatic circuit and at various, formal and informal platforms of late.

The fact is that the Maoists have "for the time being" given up their demand for Republicanism, which understandably has encouraged the Deuba government to proceed for the third round of talks with the Maoists. The sudden change in Maoists stance vis-à-vis republicanism has been taken in a positive manner by the political watchers of the Kingdom who now remain convinced that if sincerity and wisdom prevails on both the sides, the talks could restore permanent peace in the country.

However, there is a section which opines that the fresh statement of comrade Prachanda wherein he states that his grouping has for the time being suspended the agenda demanding the installation of a Republican order in Nepal and that this broad issue should be entirely left to the choice of the sovereign people to decide, should have been guided by the fact that comrade Prachanda could have sensed the mood of the people who perhaps at this stage wish the continuation of the status quo. This section further opines that comrade Prachanda in doing so perhaps wished that it would be more desirable if the common men themselves advocated the idea of a republican order in Nepal instead of their repeated reiteration for the same.

Be that as it may, there is yet another political quarter which questions the Maoists' sticking onto the elections to the constituent assembly. This section maintains that when they have given up the demand for a republican order, why now they stress for the constituent assembly? They see in their demand a sort of "grand design" to destabilize the entire democratic set up and the emerging chaotic scenario might then facilitate certain quarters to pounce upon the existing order. However, which quarter could pounce remains so far unclear.

Nevertheless, majority of the Kathmandu population now believe that a sort of formulae is round the corner which time permitting will allow the Maoists insurgents to join the main political stream.

Informed sources say that the government is thinking on the lines to bring in the Maoists insurgents in an interim set up or better say in an all party arrangement should the latter so desire. According to the plan, the government wishes to include some Maoists leaders in the proposed all-party government which is still in its embryonic stage provided the insurgents say good bye to their acts of terror and violence and exhibit their total commitment for the existing order.

However, if that happened, how the congress party will react to such government overtures? Equally significant would be the mood and the expressions of the rest of the opposition to such government moves? More so, how the Maoists themselves take up the matter also becomes very important at this stage indeed.

And finally, how the donors will react to such government posture should also have to be carefully watched.

In conclusion what could be safely said is that the Maoists have come for the talks after gaining much from the other side. By and large the government exhibited its magnanimity in order to restore peace. The Maoists too must reciprocate indeed.

Thanks the talks have already begun.

Koirala becomes restive; revival of 74 vs. 36 in congress?

Kathmandu: If one were to believe former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala's fresh statements made here and there, all of a sudden things have deteriorated to the hilt.

"The Royal Palace has lost its reliability or credibility whatsoever; the image of the political forces have gone down in the eyes of the laymen; the police force remains battered and even the intentions and the very motives of the Nepal's military force could be questioned at the moment", is all what Party president Girija babu is openly saying these days.

The laymen could have believed Girija utterances had he been at the helm of state affairs. However, the fact is that he read Girija babu, is saying so when he is not in power.

Those who understand Koirala better opine that suddenly national politics become worse in the eyes of Koirala as and when he is out of the chair he loves perhaps most.

In other words, in Koirala's opinion, Deuba should be summarily sacked and the chair now occupied by Deuba is provided to Koirala. It concurrently means that the past four months or so of Koirala's remaining out of the glow of the prime ministerial chair have led the scheme of Nepalese things to deteriorate much to the discomfiture of Koirala.

It finally means that president Koirala has become amply restive and that clandestine bids should be on to summarily collapse the incumbent Deuba regime.

Indications to this effect became clearly visible the other day when the entire Koirala yes-men in the parliament did issue a strong statement demanding a thorough judicial probe into the car-accident from which president Koirala came out unscathed. Thanks the Almighty that a national leader of the stature of Koirala is very much alive and kicking. Koirala remained undeterred from the panic of the sad happening and is busy in giving shape to his already finalized schedules.

However, in pressing his yes-men to issue the statement, president Koirala did manage the signature

of some 72 sitting congress lawmakers hinting the other rival camp, read Deuba's lobby, that should he embark on the road to destabilize Deuba regime he could do so easily. Understandably 72 is a good number numerically speaking. In effect, if the figure 72 remained intact with Koirala then he could easily bring Deuba yet again to the streets. By and large, the collection of this 72 by president Koirala in his favor or support also concurrently means that out of the total there could be some numbers whom Deuba might not have given ministerial berths or could have summarily ignored at time of the cabinet expansion. Can't be ruled out for such phenomenon have become a regular feature in the congress paraphernalia.

And this finally means that should Koirala so desire, Deuba's days in government were numbered.

Does this hint the revival of the 74 versus the 36 syndrome in the congress which had taken its toll, politically speaking, some years back? The number this time is 72 versus the rest. A slight variation in the number indeed.

However, this is not all. Deuba too has cards under his sleeve.

The number one triumph card, which Deuba possesses at the moment, is his (though belated) success in bringing the Maoists for the third round of talks which already began from yesterday. Immaterial of the outcome, Deuba is the winner at least for the time being. The second possible jerk that Koirala might have to feel from the side of Deuba would perhaps depend on how Deuba convinces the insurgents to join the main political stream. If by chance the rebellions agreed could give name and fame both to Deuba much to the displeasure of president Koirala.

That Koirala is not at all happy with the recent political "concessions" awarded to the Maoists becomes very much clear from his displeasure exhibited for the government's taking back the Public Security Regulations and more so the release of some 68 Maoists cadres from custody. Above all, Koirala finds it very difficult to digest the theory advanced by the regime for an all party government that could house some of the insurgents and later conduct elections.

In Koirala's opinion, the Maoists must be dealt with firm hands and that the King too remained prepared for the use of the military force to arrest the threats of the insurgents.

Summing up, Koirala's wish to bounce back to power and on the contrary Deuba's preference to continue in power will much depend on the outcome of the ongoing third round of talks. Predictably, if the talks fail, Koirala will pounce on Deuba. If it is otherwise the result is any body's guess.

Comrade Prachanda's meaning loaded telephonic conversations!

Kathmandu: Better late than never, comrade Madhav Nepal has told the secret.

The secret is related to the seven-point agreement that had been exclusively reached in between various communist parties with the Maoists at Siliguri, India some three months back.

The leader of the main opposition now openly says that the relations in between the UML and the CPN(Maoists) have taken a worst turn of late only because of the latter's exceeding the limits of the Siliguri agreements.

According to Nepal, so many positive things were accepted at Siliguri including the one which had it that henceforth the Maoists will not disturb the UML cadres in the districts. "But the fact is that the Maoists have in the recent days terrorized the UML workers in the districts and thus have unilaterally broken the agreement", said Nepal the other day in the capital.

"'The acts in the ground and the oration of the Maoists leaders' differ sharply", added Madhav Nepal.

Whether feeling guilty for having exceeded the limits of the Siliguri agreements, or with a genuine wish to bag greater sympathies and respect from similar communists faction in the abruptly changed political scenario, Comrade Prachanda in the recent days has been holding talks in series with some of his old "communists friends" over telephone.

In the process, comrade Madhav Nepal and comrade Bam Dev Gautam have already accepted that they had telephonic conversation with comrade Prachanda.

Madhav Nepal said that during his talks with Prachanda he bluntly told him that how he could expect "friendly" behavior from the UML given the ground reality that the UML cadres were being maltreated by Prachanda's men.

Monsieur Gautam too is supposed to have told Prachanda that the latter's men had exceeded the limits of the cease-fire arrangement with the government and the one in between the Maoists and the rest of the communists forces in Siliguri.

Reports have it that comrade Prachanda has assured comrade Nepal and Gautam that a committee would be constituted soon to look into those allegations and that nothing of that sort would be repeated in the future.

Who were the rest of the personalities with whom comrade Prachanda talked over telephone apart from these two communists' leaders is yet to be verified.

Nevertheless, Prachanda's talking to two senior communist leaders prior to the third round of talks and also after dropping the theory of "republic" is full of meaning indeed.

However, newspapers close to the Maoists Ideology conclude that the government has already been in the grips of those who wish the talks to fail. Who the personalities were, however, the newspapers do not divulge.

Be that as it may, it remains yet to be seen as to how Prachanda tames his cadres and brings to a total halt to the sporadic sad events that were still happening in the districts. Words and deeds must not differ comrade Prachanda!

Jerusalem from the air
Israeli exhibition in Biratnagar

Kathmandu: The Embassy of the State of Israel in cooperation with the Biratnagar Press Club is organizing a painting exhibition entitled "Jerusalem From the Air" in Biratnagar by the end of this month.

Some thirty-two paintings depicting Jerusalem and its environs will be exhibited at the first ever-Israeli exhibition ever held in the eastern part of this Himalayan Kingdom.

The Public Affairs Division of the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs has produced the exhibition, say embassy sources.

"Jerusalem-whose name, according to tradition, is derived from the two Hebrew words "ir" meaning city and "shalom" meaning peace among all men, will be the center of our exhibition", so said the Israeli Ambassador to the Nepali court, Abraham Nir , talking to the Telegraph weekly.

"Jerusalem from the Air" that will be held in Biratnagar on November 29 and in Lumbini on December 12, and there couldn't be better place than Nepal to display this exhibition of the city of peace, Nepal, the birthplace of Lord Buddha that was declared a zone of peace by his late Majesty King Birendra"', added the Ambassador.

According to the Israeli diplomat, Jerusalem is the heart of the Jewish people which is the central capital of Israel for all along more than 3,000 years.

Preparations to make the Israeli exhibition a success in Biratnagar are being given final touches, says Surendra Aryal, the vice-chairman of the Press Club there.

The branch office of the Telegraph weekly in Biratnagar is coordinating the entire affair.

HRH Prekshya is no more

Kathmandu: Her Royal Highness Prekshya Shah is no more.

She was the consort of former HRH Dhirendra Shah who was shot dead allegedly by the then Crown Prince Dipendra on June 1, this year.

To recall, it was this day which took the lives of King Birendra and his entire family members.

HRH Prekshya Shah met with the fatal accident Monday morning local time when the Fish Tail Air Helicopter carrying her back to Kathmandu crashed near the periphery of the famous RARA Lake situated in the Mugu district.

HRH Prekshya Shah, to recall, survived the June 1 carnage at the Narayan Hiti Royal Palace simply because she did not attend that very special dinner of June 1 for she was not even in talking terms, we are told, with her late husband Dhirendra Shah.

We condole the sad and untimely demise of late HRH Prekshya Shah. May Lord Pashupatinath offer courage to the Royal family to bear this loss.

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