Indepth Analysis

Political moneys only real income!

Kathmandu: As the government-Maoists talks threatens to lengthen and as Opposition to Deuba centers around demand for early conclusion of talks, the conclusion of festival season this year ends with the widespread understanding that politics is to ignore the real problems of the mundane masses pertaining to the economy. The fact that government measures regarding essential supplies during peak festival demands proved futile and the business community gained from profiteering in, for example, sugar, illustrates the virtual incapacitation of the Deuba administration.

The general public now must live with the fact that there is no administration. If the law and the order situation was the focus of government previously, the government-Maoists talks appears not to have prevented the Maoists from selectively kidnapping, blackmailing, killing and robbing. This is so much so that it is now virtually impossible to distinguish political violence from the lay criminal activity. De-capacitating the administration has virtually resulted in mob-rule allowing the criminals to mix with radical politicians. The festival season this year was the most expensive no doubt. But this year violence found no reprieve during the festivities.

Curious watchers find the overt emphasis on politics befuddling. There is no public comment on the impact of worldwide recession on the Nepalese economy. There is no official caution in public on impact of the Afghanistan tensions in the region. When even neighbors such as India and Sri Lanka have begun soaring up their economies against the impact of falling exports and the radical reductions in tourist arrivals, Nepali officialdom appears to have little in the cards by way of creating options.

Surprisingly, this is despite longstanding acknowledgement that major non-agricultural economic mainstays have been on the slump since years. The carpet, the Pashminas', garments, these export mainstays have shown radical reductions in sales since last year. Other handicraft demands have plunged. Even agricultural exports seem unable to complement their dearth of earning given that demand at home has yet to be met. Nepali industry is approaching ruins as admitted in the government fiscal policy itself. The banking sector has over extended. Both loan demands and interest payments are precarious.

Regardless, public discussions appear to shy away from these hard realities. It is only the business sectors particularly, the tourist sector that appears to be shouting hoarse. The dangers of long-term heavy investments in Nepal have been exposed starkly.

With investments threatened, further investment scared, infrastructural investments destroyed, the chances of the country going bust become so real in Nepal that politics has reasons not to talk about it in public. This absence of discussion however doesn't prevent the public its effects. Costs are rising, as the most expensive festival season did demonstrate. The price of the Nepali rupee is decreasing. The chances of complementing income are shrinking. It is this that makes reach to political moneys more precious. It is this that makes for crisis in the country.

Is a national Referendum in offing?
Maoists not to settle for less than Elections to Constituent Assembly

Kathmandu: The country is in a very difficult political situation.

The peculiar situation that has emerged immediately after the conclusion of the third round of government-Maoists talks perhaps will stir the nation for quite some time and will in probability continue to boggle the minds of the intellectuals and the leaders alike of this nation indeed.

"The ball now is in the government's court", thus said Krishna Bahadur Mahara, the chief negotiator of the Maoists side said while talking to a to a local Nepal Television anchor Monday evening.

According to Mahara, his party will now not settle for less than the Elections to the Constituent Assembly come what may.

If the Maoist's abrupt suspension of their old agenda for a republican order in Nepal prior to the third round of talks, on the one hand, had to a greater extent given a sort of reprieve to the national level leaders, then the concurrent and the ultimate demand, on the other, for the elections to the constituent assembly has equally worried the same lot for obvious reasons.

The Maoists say that their bottom-line is now the elections to the constituent assembly and if the government doesn't heed to their "ultimate" demand then they might revive their old agenda for a republican order in the country. To recall, the Maoists have only temporarily suspended their demand for a republic. This means that they could revive it should the talks fail summarily.

Some quarters conclude that the Maoists time permitting would forget the idea for a constituent assembly much the same way as they did with the republican order.

"The fact is that the Maoists insurgency needs a safe landing from the ongoing talks which becomes pretty clear from their coming down to constituent assembly from republican system", said a Congressite to this scribe.

In his opinion, Maoist's rejection to the idea for a republic in Nepal automatically means that they now accept the constitutional monarchy and the current dispensation. He further says that if the Maoists press for the elections to the constituent assembly during the impending round of dialogues with the government should also mean that indirectly they yet long for the republican establishment in the nation.

UML lawmaker, Pradip Nepal is remains confident that time permitting the Maoists will join the main political stream for in his opinion the insurgency is now tired of being in the jungles. According to his fresh prediction, despite the success in the government-Maoists talks, a sizeable chunk of the Maoists second generation cadres will continue to be a headache for the establishment for this section will inevitably reject the compromise arrived at in between the Maoists negotiators and the government.

If Pradip Nepal's prediction were any clue then what could be guessed in advance is that the Maoists insurgency has several factions now in its fold and that even if Comrade Prachanda and Comrade Bhattarai arrive at an amicable solution to the entire Maoists issue, there would be yet another grouping well inside the Maoists paraphernalia which will not only reject the commandership of their present day comrade in arms but would also create unpleasant situation for the men handling the affairs of the Singh Durbar.

Those who have remained vocal against the Maoists demand for the elections to the constituent assembly were UML leaders and the men in the Girija congress.

The UML leaders say that Maoists demand for the constituent assembly was simply a paranoid affair for they say that unless the present constitution is scrapped entirely, talks on constituent assembly is redundant. According to the Communist leaders, no body under the sun could scrap the 1990 constitution. "Neither the King, the parliament nor the government can scrap this constitution. At best what could be done is to amend the constitution for which the UML is voicing from the very beginning", say UML leaders.

Yet another leader of the UML, K.P.Woli says that prior to demanding the elections for constituent assembly by the Maoists, they should be able to justify their demand for the same and should pinpoint the shortcomings in the 1990 constitution so that the people at large could understand the reasons which prompted them to go in for a constituent assembly.

"Unless they do so would mean that they wish to hand over the gains of the 1990 movement back to certain powerful quarters"', added Woli.

Talking to the NTV, K.B.Mahara expressed his surprise over the nervousness seen in the UML quarters for their demand of a constituent assembly.

"This means that the UML leaders have no confidence. The elections to the constituent assembly might draft a better constitution than what we have now"', added Mahara.

Be that as it may, the government under Deuba remains undeterred from the emerging peculiar situation. He is yet confident that talks and only talks with the insurgents would sort out the current tensed atmosphere in the country.

What makes him so sure is surprising indeed. Prime Minister Deuba the other day told a party gathering in Banepa that his government was ready for the fourth round of talks.

The Maoists will not settle for less than constituent assembly. Deuba can't offer the same to the Maoists in a silver plate for obvious constitutional reasons. The UML and a strong section of his own party men were against the Maoists latest demands.

It will be interesting to watch as to how Deuba will come out unscathed from the demands of the Maoists and the strong opposition he is facing at the moment from the real Opposition in parliament and from a section of his own party led by Girija babu.

Or is it that Prime Minister Deuba is thinking to throw the national population for a sort of national referendum to decide the people's choice: retaining the present status quo or the elections to the constituent assembly as demanded by the Maoists.

The million dollar question would be then as to who could declare the referendum in the present scheme of political things: the Constitutional monarch or the Government?

Certainly, Deuba is in between the devil and the deep blue sea. But one must admire his in-built confidence in the ongoing talks with the Maoists.

The Maoists could give a surprise at a later stage by pressing the government for an interim arrangement in which they too could participate in and conduct the general election. Interestingly enough, most of the political parties, including the Deuba government, is ready for this arrangement. Koirala, however, is against this scheme as well for obvious reasons.

Will Deuba regime collapse if UML supports Koirala?

Kathmandu: Nepali Congress party president Girija Prasad Koirala appears to have vowed to oust his nearest political rival-Sher Bahadur Deuba.

His fresh utterances made in his home town Biratnagar amply hint that he will spare no efforts unturned for bringing about a premature collapse of Deuba government.

If one carefully analyses the statements emanating of late from UML quarters and the Girija faction of the congress, one would naturally find striking similarities in between the statements made by two separate political parties. What is common in both is that both possess satirical remarks about the incumbent Prime Minister. While President Koirala is passing on his negative comments, at times implied as well, onto the Prime Minister's awarding extra concessions to what he prefers yet to call the "terrorists", the UML camp summarily describes Deuba tenure in government as a total "failure".

The UML says so because it is one of the hardest hit party by the continuing violent activities of the Maoists despite the fact that there had been, we were told, a tacit understanding in between the UML and the Maoists that they will remain friendly to each other till a solution to the Maoists imbroglio is arrived at. However, the UML allegation is that the Maoists cadres have unilaterally broken the "peace-accord" and have in the process attacked several of the UML cadres in the districts.

The sum total is that the UML at this juncture is totally annoyed with the Maoists overtures and with government's inability in containing the ongoing threats of the insurgents more so on its party cadres.

Koirala's anger with the government is threefold. Firstly, Koirala feels that it was time already for Deuba's ouster. When he feels and arrives at a firm conclusion that becomes final or at least should be considered by his party men as final and binding too.

Secondly, Koirala considers that should Deuba bag success, his fate in Nepal's politics would come to a grinding halt and hence he should keep on talking things that harass Deuba or at best spoil the entire process of the dialogue that the latter is continuing.

Thirdly, in Koirala's opinion, the Maoists should be treated at par with the terrorists and hence no need for lingering the talks. This implies that Koirala wishes for the abrupt failure of the talks which in effect would discredit Deuba to the extent that he would, read Deuba, voluntarily resign from the chair. This sudden event will facilitate Girija to bounce back to power, which is what he wishes from the very core of his heart.

Now looking at UML leader Madhav Nepal's political utterances, which were all against Sher Bahadur Deuba, one could fairly conclude that should party president Girija babu seek the former's tacit support in bringing about a sudden collapse of Deuba set up, he could do so and Madhav Nepal will be more than willing to extend his political help. Whether or not Madhav is supporting Koirala will become amply clear at time of the beginning of the winter session of the parliament.

There is one more factor that brings Koirala closer with Madhav Nepal. The fact is that both the political creatures are dead against the elections to the constituent assembly as demanded by the Maoists insurgents. If Deuba exhibited his bend for Maoists' fresh demand, it would be this bend which will cause Deuba government to collapse. Telegraph adds: The UML central Committee Tuesday afternoon said that the Government-Maoists talks must not be lengthened. The fresh UML statement indeed fully matches with what president Koirala is airing these days. Could be a mere coincidence!

However, Deuba is not a fool. He should have already calculated measures on how to counter those Koirala-Madhav overtures.

At best what Deuba could do is to give continuation to the talks with the Maoists in order to shield himself from the wrath of both the national population and his political enemies within and without his party.

This means that the present day tensed atmosphere will continue for long in the country.

However, what course the national politics will take will be best decided by the winter session of the parliament. It is for sure that president Koirala enjoys the support of 72 NC lawmakers. This means that Koirala could engineer any move to discredit Deuba should he preferred to do so.

NEFAS/FES seminar on WTO

Kathmandu: Nepal's senior economists at a national seminar held Tuesday morning have suggested the government to do proper homework prior to joining the body of the World Trade Organization, WTO.

The Nepalese scholars were also of the opinion that the Nepal's concerned authorities dealing with the WTO affairs must convince the lay men regarding the benefits and the otherwise that would accrue from Nepal's joining the WTO arrangements.

The national seminar entitled "Nepal's accession to WTO and the Agriculture Sector" was organized by the Nepal Foundation for Advanced Studies, NEFAS, in cooperation with the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.

Welcoming the attending seminar participants, the NEFAS Executive Director Professor Ananda Shrestha said that Nepal could benefit from WTO provided proper home work is done prior to joining the World Trade body.

Posh Raj Pandey, a member of the government's WTO cell, presented the paper.

Dr. Bishwanath Tiwari and Sri Dipendra Bahadur Chetri commented on Pandey's paper.

Professor Gun Nidhi Sharma from the chair maintained that Nepal's already high cost economy has got to be brought down in order to compete the world market.

French film festival begins next week

Kathmandu: A weeklong French Film festival is scheduled to begin from early next week, say French Embassy sources.

According to the schedule, the festival will continue from 27 November till December 2, next month.

About fourteen French films in total will be screened at the premises of the Russian Cultural Center. The plan is to screen two films every evening and that too entrance free.

To mark the opening of the film festival, the Ambassador of France, Claude Ambrosini, will host a cock-tail reception on Monday, 26 November. A select group of Kathmandu personalities including diplomats based in the capital district would be invited for viewing the film right after the reception.

The Thapathali based Alliance Francaise is assisting the French film festival organized by the embassy, it is learnt from the embassy sources.

Minister Bal Bahadur K.C will be the chief guest at the opening ceremony.

Nepali art lovers enjoy Indian paintings at AF

Kathmandu: The Alliance Francaise Monday evening organised a colorful ceremony to exhibit the solo creation of an Indian painter of international standing , Mona Ghosh.

The title of the painting exhibition is "Colour of my Mind" and about fifty plus magnificent paintings are on display.

This is her second painting exhibition held in Nepal.

The outgoing Indian Ambassador, Dev Mukerjee, inaugurated the exhibition and wished Mona Ghosh a very bright future.

Mona Ghosh is soon to receive a highly prestigious award in her home country by the Indian President for her outstanding contribution in the field of arts.

Mrs. Chantal Lama and Ms. Kalpana Ghimire shed lights on the creative works of Mona Ghosh.

Lovers of arts, pressmen, diplomats and businessmen were also present to grace the occasion.

Adventure tourism to enhance Nepal Sri Lanka ties

Kathmandu: Three enthusiasts from Sri Lanka recently made it known to the Nepalese pressmen that a sort of Adventure Tourism could be made popular in their country provided the Nepalese side supported their endeavor in this regard.

Mr. Elmo Francis, the team leader together with Mr Charith Hemasiri and Marlon Saldin talked to the Nepali media last week at Hotel Annapurna and opined that Nepal was the right country for such kind of tourism for the Sri Lankans.

"We possess sea beaches and you have majestic snow capped mountains"', said a beaming project leader Francis.

"We enjoyed the scenic beauties of your mountains from close quarters and have come to a conclusion that adventure tourism could be well initiated for our countrymen for which we need some support from the concerned Nepalese authorities", added Hemasiri who is also a software engineer.

The third enthusiast Marlon Saldin said that Sri Lanka Tourism Board and the Sri Lankan Airlines had sponsored their project that brought them all to Nepal.

"Apart from Lumbini, the birth place of Lord Buddha, the Sri Lankans will be more than pleased to come to Nepal to see the Nepali mountains under the package of Adventure tourism", said Elmo Francis.

Surely, if the project worked as per the expectations of the Sri Lankans, it would definitely contribute not only to the promotion of Nepalese tourism but will also enhance our bilateral ties.

The meeting had been arranged by the Sri Lankan embassy in Kathmandu.

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