Indepth Analysis

September 21 mob to decide the future course?

Kathmandu: There is no indication as yet that the Government-Maoists talks will receive fruition. There is every indication that, the talks regardless, the September 21 Maoists rally in Kathmandu will go ahead. It is this that consumes the minds of the government, the opposition and the people at large.

Government efforts to stall the Maoists meet have as yet been rebuffed. The Maoists are pouring in. The districts are being mobilized to send in participants. "People's action" has become handy to galvanize select Kathmandu denizens to play host and provide the resources for the housing and feeding of the expected influx of the people.

At another level, security organs are evidently poised to cope with any problem the Maoists meet may generate. Efforts to control the influx of arms have become visible. Even the police appear active in the capital to desist sources of violence. Both reported Maoists activities in Kathmandu and the police action contribute to a heightened sense of anticipation and insecurity.

The incident in Gorkha district last week has assured the people in a sense that the army can fire on the Maoists if and when the challenge is serious. Sunday's Bhurungkhel incident shows that the police can dare rescue people under people's action. But the panic remains.

Much of the source stems from the concept of a large mass gathering being mobilized inside Kathmandu. Speculation that such a mass can be swung to target critical institutions and tempt police or army wrath is rife. This concept was successful during the people's movement to bring down the previous system. The Maoists have their participation in that movement to gain from.

At least in Kathmandu, support for such a strategy appears limited to Maoists activists alone. This, however, is likely to be compensated by the mass being cajoled to come in. If, in 1990, the influx of, among others Bhutanese refugees is said to have contributed to the crowds, the Maoists this time appear also to have encouraged Nepalese domiciles in India. The crowd, its size and nature would seem to be formidable in anticipation.

At least, out southern neighbor appears to have gauged the potentials of the anticipated events in Kathmandu well. There are unconfirmed media reports of the movement of Indian troops close to the border. Equally revealing are reports of movements targeting ethnic communities the favorite Terai versus hill people apart, anti-Brahmin-Chettri organizations also appear to have surfaced. The timing would seem critical.

Equally critical it seems would be the ability of the Maoists leadership to swing their radical organization. What ever the results of the talks, that decisions will be binding is now a matter of speculation. If reports are right, a volatile ethnic community may find it convenient to view any agreement as a sell-out. Reports are also that many activists would like to shy away from the much-anticipated show down. Yet another number would seem to be attracted by the gains so far to advocate the use of the election machinery.

What ever, much of the uncertainty stems from the possibility of all sides leaving the initiatives to the September 21 crowd. Perhaps the danger lies in the notion that the crowd will decide the future course of action.

Is there any truth in Madhav Nepal's allegations?

Kathmandu: Nepal's "democratic leaders" at times behave in a funny and fanatic manner. These leaders' forget for some time that their utterances might create troubles of Himalayan order to the extent that the nation later would have to apologize for their baffling expressions.

In the process, the leader of the main opposition, Madhav Nepal, only few days back stunned the nation when he "divulged" that the Nepalese Royal Palace and the Indian establishment were backing the Maoists insurgency.

Madhav Nepal's candid allegation came out into the open as if he had collected some "concrete" proofs and that whatever he said could later be substantiated without any let or hindrance.

However, the fact is that Madhav Nepal spoke these only to please his cadres who of late have started exhibiting their attractions to the camps of the insurgency.

Had Madhav Nepal possessed clear proofs of the Indian backing to the Maoists he should have made it open to the media and bag accolades. He did not do this for obvious reasons.

Whether the Maoists enjoyed Indian backing or not could be a different topic inviting discussions from the nation's political pundits, however, what is for sure is that it was Madhav Nepal who during his deputy Premiership did manage some extra gestures in favor of India vis-à-vis the yet controversial Mahakali Treaty package. To recall, this package considered to be the brainchild of Madhav Nepal later took the shape of Mahakali Treaty signed in 1996 September or so.

The Nepalese people still recall Madhav's extra energetic mood in getting the Mahakali treaty ratified by the Nepalese parliament which summarily caused a vertical split in the then UML and facilitated to the formation of the present day paper tiger-the ML.

Going a bit more further, it was Madhav Nepal and his party leaders who denounced India and her what they preferred to call then "hegemonic" behavior exhibited at times against small neighbors, more specially against Nepal, at times of the general elections. IN effect, the communists in Nepal denounce India and demand the outright scrapping up of the 1950 treaty only at time of the election and secure good number of seats in the parliament. The fact is that these communists were more pro-India than what is being alleged for the Terai based party-the Sadbhavana.

But then since these mind boggling utterances have come from a seasoned leader of the communist movement, the Nepalese intellectuals would do well if they look into the inner nitty-gritty of the Madhav's statement and come out with a concrete finding on whether Indian backing were there for the Maoists or not.

Till the intellectuals do not arrive at any conclusion regarding Indian backing to the insurgents, let Madhav Nepal enjoy the benefit of doubt. But then Madhav Nepal is on record to have said this which might have already annoyed the South Block quarters presumably. The question is that whether Madhav Nepal is ready to produce the evidence, which supported his blunt and very powerful allegations? What if he failed? Will the Royal Palace or for that matter the over sensitive Indian establishment allow Madhav Nepal to remain undisturbed politically in Nepal? Perhaps not! Both will prefer presumably now to kill the political prestige of this UML leader through the use of their preferred political tricks and tact which should be in abundance kept unused yet under their sleeves.

If both push and support clandestinely Madhav's rival K.P.Woli in the coming days would mean that Madhav Nepal is in the process of being punished. If they do not do so would naturally mean that Madhav Nepal has already apologized for his "meaning loaded" blunt statement indeed.

Let's watch Madhav's position in the party henceforth and carefully read the K.P.Woli's political overtures.

A question could well be asked to Madhav Nepal: Why he did not divulge this extra sensitive finding inside the ongoing session of the parliament? Add to this did he put forth his inner mind to Indian foreign minister Jaswant Singh during his exclusive tête-à-tête with the Indian dignitary? If he did so what was Mr. Singh's response?

These questions need to be answered by Monsieur Nepal.

NC President Koirala's allegation against India is real or a gimmick?

Kathmandu: Former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala has let the cat out of the bag.

Toeing the surprising line at the moment acquired by UML leader Madhav Nepal, he too found it opportune and appropriate to hit India hard.

Whether he did it on his own whims or some powerful quarters instigated or even instigated to do so is still unclear. However, what has become amply clear is that after relinquishing the prestigious post of Nepal's Prime Ministership, G.P.Koirala has apparently no job other than to talk funny matters in order to attract the attention of his cadres and the nation's intellectuals.

To come to the point, Girija babu made off the cuff remark wherein he said that the Maoists were enjoying the blessings from the Palace and the Indian establishment.

Surprising though it may appear, both Madhav Nepal's and Koirala's "secret findings" tally with each other and that the similar findings have come at a time when the nation is facing unprecedented pressures from within.

However, the question that is boggling the minds of the Kathmandu intellectuals including those in the congress camp is that why Monsieur Koirala did not submit his secret conclusions inside the parliament which continues to be in session even today?

By way of reference, it could also be asked to Koirala as to why he "divulged" his "trillion dollar" findings only after he had to quit the Prime Ministerial chair under pressures?

Similarly, one could well pose yet another question to Koirala that why he chose to "disclose" this sensitive findings at time when the government, albeit NC's one, and the insurgents were almost set for the second round of talks?

And finally what could also be inquired of Koirala is that when he knew that both Indian establishment and the Nepalese Royal Palace were behind the insurgency then which factors prevented him to "'expose" both the powerful forces at time when he was at the helm of affairs of the state?

Should this mean that he was afraid of both? Or should it mean that he now has been left into the cold by those two powerful forces for some "reasons" yet unknown to the Katmandu's political watchers?

Or is it that the Indian establishment now relies more on some one other than Koirala despite the fact that Koirala enjoyed the distinction of being even dubbed as Pro-India man from day one of his Premiership to the last round of his being in that chair till a month back or so?

The fact is that Koirala remained ever cautious in serving alien interests which came to the fore when Nepal's Supreme Court regarded the Mahakali agreement as to have been one commanding the force of a Treaty instead of being an agreement as per Koirala's utterances.

The list goes long wherein Koirala, opine intellectuals, has some way or the other been of tacit support to neighboring interests during his being in power for almost all of the so-called democratic years in Nepal after 1990.

In effect, the Koirala family has a tragedy of being dubbed as pro-India men. This happened with late B.P.Koirala and the same allegations are with Girija babu. However, the fact is that the late B.P.Koirala in his posthumously released book denounces the attitudes of the Indian establishment and her leaders. According to late Koirala, India prefers more often than not to twist the arms of the smaller neighbors should she get opportune moments at time of negotiations.

Whether India twisted Nepali arms in the past or is even twisting the same could best be divulged by personages like Koirala and the likes who have had the opportunities to sit in dialogues with the other party.

Koirala committed a blunder. The blunder will damage him both here and there. Inside the country, his fresh utterances will be taken in a very light fashion and would be dismissed claiming that his utterances could well be a new bargain between the two sides for rebouncing back to power. In India, his utterances presumably will be taken very seriously and a sort of wrath from the other side can't be ruled out time permitting. That Indian establishment is not happy with Koirala has come to the fore in the sudden deployment of the Indian Secret Service Bureau, SSB, at the Nepal-India borders since a few days.

Whatever logic has been supplied by the other side for the fresh deployment of the SSB men we have nothing to discuss but then what could best be concluded is that this deployment has come only after Madhav Nepal and Koirala's allegations made against India that the other side across the border had been supporting the Nepalese Maoists insurgency.

Consider what would happen if India decide to go the way as the old dictum goes: my enemy's enemy is my friend?

What is the guarantee that it would not happen? Or even what would happen if a frustrated and disappointed Koirala and those who champion to his "'newly advanced theory" chose too to follow the same dictum simply to annoy the other side?

The days ahead in Nepalese politics apparently is all set to unfold so many nitty-gritty's which till today remained in dark indeed.

Be that as it may, Koirala's new findings will definitely initiate a new debate in the country

Surprisingly, the Indian establishment is yet to come out with clarifications over Koirala's unsharpened remarks. Hopefully, it would react but not necessarily be known to common men.

Government is nervous; Maoists image going down!

Kathmandu: The government under the command of Sher Bahadur Deuba has definitely become nervous.

The cause for this suddenly developed nervousness is the Maoists declaration that they would come to Kathmandu on September 21 and would organize what they claim to be a peaceful rally.

Together with the government, practically all the political parties other than the Maoists too apparently conclude that the insurgencies' would be show of strength on that fateful day would be chaotic.

The lay men in Kathmandu including the diplomatic community too remain terrified with the September 21 event.

The reasons for this are obvious.

However, the Maoists claim that it would be a peaceful one and that there was nothing to panic or whatsoever.

But the panic remains.

That the government has become neurotic considering the maintenance of the law and order situation in the valley on that day gets reflected from the fact that it has already tightened its entire "security systems" and kept on alert even the Royal Nepal Army should any untoward incident grip the valley before or after the said Maoists rally conclude. In the process, the check-points from where transport systems enter into the valley were being thoroughly checked by the trained police men for fear of any arms getting through inside the valley. The police men visibly have doubled their activities in Kathmandu and the security system has been duly tightened in order to give the impression to the public that the government side was doing all what it can in order to face any would be eventualities.

Nevertheless, the people remain under constant panic. The lay men fear that what would happen to their lives and security if the would be peaceful rally of the insurgents goes berserk? What would happen if in the name of controlling the already disturbed situation the policemen too go on the rampage and later the insurgents retaliate with equal force?

The government perhaps has already calculated the possibilities and hence appears to impress upon the Maoists leaders to hold off the September 21 congregation. Sources close to government say that the Maoists have at best been suggested by the establishment that they can go ahead with their declared meeting on that day but then refrain from fiery speeches and no arms should be in their possession at time of the rally. In the process, several political parties and civil society groups too have pleaded the insurgents not to create panic on that day.

The Maoists say it would be peaceful one in response.

Meanwhile, while the second round of talks are yet to begin the parties in talks- the government and the Maoists-appear closely monitoring each other's internal movements. While, on the one hand, the Maoists claim that the establishment has been terrifying the insurgents of late through acts of arrests and capturing their propaganda materials thus unilaterally rejecting the already agreed points arrived at the first round of talks held in between the two, the government on the other maintains that the insurgents yet continue to terrify the lay men including business houses and hotels and schools through their unabated acts of extortion and the likes.

The insurgents say that their cadres have already been instructed not do so till the talks take concrete shape. However, they opine that if such extortion were taking place at some places then it could be the acts of fake Maoists.

The government remains adamant in its allegations against the Maoists.

The fact is that if the Maoists leaders and their cadres go on for extortion measures and pressurizing the educational and business institutions, will surely damage their popularity or say even sympathies to what the people, read the common men, possessed for their insurgency till a few days back. Whether by fear or otherwise, a sizeable chunk of national population unexposedly exhibited their regard for the insurgency. However, such expressions came from the population due to the government's inability to deliver since 1990.

Clearly speaking, the image of the insurgency, sorry to say, has gone down in the eyes of the common men after they came to the open only three weeks back. It is high time for the leaders of the insurgency to think twice over the cause, which brought this abrupt change in people's hearts.

The second round of talks scheduled for Thursday perhaps, would take a positive course which will, let us hope, create an atmosphere wherein the lay men could take a sigh of permanent relief. Will the government and the Maoists listen to this people's genuine wishes and act accordingly?

ML's loss is Maoists gain

Kathmandu: The two diametrically opposed lines in the Bam Dev Gautam led ML party appears to have already taken its political toll.

To recall, a section in the ML concludes that it would be politically beneficial for the party to join hands with the mother party that is the UML considering the present day politics of the nation. This section believes that a united UML or say the MLs merger into the mainstream UML will enhance the image of the communists in the country which time permitting could well become a formidable force to be reckoned with by all and sun dry.

This group also concludes that if the ML and UML merge, the rest of the meager communists' factions will automatically be attracted towards their new structure, which undoubtedly will contribute to their strength.

On the other, the other section prefers joining heart to heart with the Maoists grouping for obvious reasons.

The ML as a party not represented in the parliament remained in this dilemma for quite some time and could not arrive at a decision on whether to join the UML or even the Maoists grouping got a major setback the other day when a major section of its politically affiliated student's grouping abruptly decided to join the Maoists affiliated students grouping.

This episode definitely bespeaks of a big fissure to exist in the ML camp which will undoubtedly weaken further the party from within.

What is loss for the ML is definitely a big political bumper prize for the Maoists party and this is what the latter had tentatively expected of the ML.

The now divided MLs student grouping has summarily deplored the talks that aims at a unification of the ML and the UML.

Unconfirmed reports say that ML leader C.P.Mainali pushed this idea in the brains of his party's student grouping and hence the fresh merger with the revolutionary students of the Maoists.

This amply speaks that Mr. Mainali and leader Bam Dev Gautam differ on matters pertaining to the unification of the ML with that of the UML.

How Gautam reacts to this new Mainali overtures will have to be watched.

US clarifies its missile defense and deterrence policy

Kathmandu: A fact sheet recently prepared by the Arms Control Bureau of the U.S department of State on "Missile Defense and Deterrence" cites emerging threats and a need to diversify the United States approach to deterrence and touches upon U.S missile defense and Russia and China.

The fact sheet says "maintaining a reliable deterrent against attacks on the United States and its allies was the critical objective of U.S national security strategy".

It further says that the US 'always prefers peaceful means to maintain its own security and prosperity and that of its close friends and allies, but maintains the military capabilities needed to deter and defend against the threat or potential use of force by prospective adversaries".

Regarding its would be relationship with Russia on these matters, the US says that "we are committed to creating a new strategic and diplomatic relationship with Russia, one founded not on common vulnerabilities, but on common interests and shared objectives. Citing Secretary of State Colin Powell, the fact sheet goes on to add: " it is time to change the nuclear equation of mutual assured destruction to a more sensible strategic arrangement".

The fact sheet paper also says that the US missile defenses would be designed to deter and defend against small-scale attacks from rouge states, as well as from accidental or unauthorized attacks from any source.

See next issue for the full text –editor.

ISRAEL INFORMATION SERVICE


Jerusalem, September 9, 2001 ISRAEL'S REACTION TO THE CONCLUSION OF THE UN CONFERENCE AGAINST RACISM IN DURBAN (Communicated by the Foreign Ministry Spokesperson)

Israel regrets that a world conference, whose declared purpose was to discuss ways of dealing with a universal phenomenon that causes suffering to millions throughout the world, focused instead on a specific political conflict that has nothing to do with racism.

At the same time, Israel expresses its satisfaction that the draft clauses containing accusations and incitement against Israel and against the Jewish people were removed from the concluding statements of the conference. In doing so, the world rejected the attempts made by extremist Arab states to control the content of the conference and to pervert its ends, by turning it into a platform for denigrating Israel. The draft adopted at Durban in our absence, following our walk-out together with the United States, is not ideal, and we objected to it. However, it is substantially different from the venomous resolutions that the extremist states wished to pass. At the conference, the non-democratic states failed in their attempt to dictate chapter and verse on the subject of human rights to the enlightened world, and were unable to thereby turn the conference into a theater of the absurd.

The well-timed walk-out by the United States and Israel constituted the turning point that encouraged many other states to protest the Arab and Muslim attempts to take over the conference and helped get the conference back on a constructive track. Israel succeeded in its efforts to convince countries from every continent to join together in defeating this intention of putting Israel on trial.

Foreign Minister Shimon Peres stated Saturday night that, for the first time, the automatic majority against Israel was broken. This can be attributed to Israel's striving for peace as well as to its firm stand on the most basic principles. Minister Peres expressed gratitude to the United States for its unequivocal backing of Israel and noted the cooperation of the European Union states and the support of a large bloc of countries in Latin America, Asia, Eastern Europe, North and Central America and the Pacific.
Deputy Foreign Minister, Rabbi Michael Melchior, stated that the entire world rejected with disdain the spirit of hatred that stood behind the Arab attempt to win international support for hatred of Jews and the delegitimization of Israel.

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