Indepth Analysis

Election government round the corner

Kathmandu: The joke is that both the congress and the Maoists talk and conclude that the talks have been successful while there is no need to substantiate the success. The success evidently is based on the agreement between the two parties for the need for further talks. Both parties, however, make public the distance that remains among them. Neither party has budged on their primary standpoints regarding the constitution and the monarchy.

After the success of the call to talks reflected, mainly, in the laying down of the arms and, thereby the surfacing of the Maoists workers both parties appear to concur that the success lies in the talks. Neither the agenda nor the grounds covered have had to meet the public eye.

It is this that has added to a sense of mystery and anticipation to the talks. Neither party, for example, would want to tell the public that it is primarily on account of the talks that government could secure from the Maoists leadership a renunciation of the scheduled Maoists mass meetings in Kathmandu. The government would like to make political cash from its declared hard-line stance prohibiting public gatherings in the valley for a month. The Maoists would want to maintain their belligerence through public condemnations of the prohibition. The ease with which the scheduled mass meetings were relocated outside the valley gives some meat to the talks but both the parties would rather not admit it.

It is this hush-hush atmosphere that leaves one wondering where exactly the compromises are being made. If the Maoists gain in consolidating their organization in the background of the talks, government appears to be making headway in restoring a sense of credibility by asserting their presence.

This is reflected in a new sense of confidence allowing it to enumerate Maoists organizational excesses inside and outside the valley. Government today appears able to cash in from sporadic reports of public reaction to Maoists excesses. The galvanization of the administration now goes to the extent of Sunday raids on key educational institutions preempting possible violence. This new sense of confidence deserves a deeper probe surely.

Of course, the Maoists leadership must give the public its adamant image despite the sacrifices. There is reason still to suggest that the government clamp down will give fodder for opposition. Nevertheless, it is possible to see that the talk-talk situation has its advantages for the Maoists as well.

All these lead to speculations regarding the course of the talks. And so one begins to look into the possibilities. What will the Maoists give in order for it to take from the talks? With government and the opposition collectively standing firm against demands for a Republic, the possibility that the Maoists will take the bait of a seat in an election-government looms large.

Both Maoists and government buying time?

Kathmandu: With the conclusion of the second round of talks in between the government and the insurgents, a sort of pressure, both domestic and international, is mounting on both the parties suggesting both to arrive at an amicable solution to the overly stretched Maoists imbroglio.

Fortunately, indications emanating from both the rival quarters' hint that both wish to give the process of talk a safe landing at a later stage.

But how?

By all accounts the government exhibited its sheer nervousness regarding the September 21 said mass meeting of the Maoists in Kathmandu and preferred to impose a prohibition order claiming that such meetings might go out of control and hence cause panic among the Kathmanduites. Intriguing though it may appear, the Maoists deliberate or otherwise too abruptly shifted their said Kathmandu meeting to various districts.

This could not only be a mere conjecture, opine intellectuals.

While the government by imposing a ban on their meeting in Kathmandu exhibited its anti-democratic character, the Maoists shifting of the said meetings to other areas of the country as suggested by the establishment amply hinted that at this critical juncture they too wish not to disturb the lately initiated peace process. In doing so the government and the Maoists apparently averted a major confrontation that was all sure to rock Kathmandu valley on September 21. This also means that a sort of tacit understanding has already been made in between the two which is evident from their fresh commitments that both will sit for yet another talkathon in the near future.

These are any way superficial matters indeed. The inner politics is somewhat different, guess Katmandu's political watchers.

That there is some thing more than meets the public eye is the continued insistence on the part of the Maoists for an interim government; election to the constituent assembly and finally the installation of a Republican state in the country even after the conclusion of the second round of official level of talks. This simply means that the insurgents' remain adamant to their declared demands and will apparently not settle for less and would again put forth those demands for the perusal of the government negotiators.

Statements to this effect have come out into the open in which the insurgents say that the government side has assured them that a sort of discussion could be made on their "demands". Talking on these lines, one of the participants from the insurgent's side, Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, told a weekly newspaper the other day. However, Raymajhi did admit that they were really in favor of talks and that all in the name of the people and the nation.

This again means that the government side negotiators' went extra mile at the talks and assured the other camp that a sort of discussion could later be made on their extra-constitutional demands. The question arises as to who gave the government negotiators this mandate?

Be that as it may, the government apparently knows it fully well that the insurgents could not be seduced at the talks and time permitting a sort of clash was imminent in between the two. Perhaps this calculation forced the government to suddenly activise its security machinery all over the country to face any untoward incidents should the talks with the Maoists fail abruptly.

In the process, the Deuba led government has kept the army and police in a Red Alert situation so that peace could be maintained in the country more so in the valley.

The Maoists understand this new development and conclude that the government under Deuba is playing double with them. Sensing foul play against them, they say that they are committed for talks. However, that should not mean their weakness.

"Disturbing the process of talks by the establishment would mean an end to the cease-fire", says comrade Prachanda.

Rumors in Kathmandu suggest that the Maoists too were buying time and had been giving an impression to all that they remained committed for the restoration of peace through dialogues. However, the fact is that they know that the negotiators from the other camp could not OK their demands.

Be that as it may, both the sides remain adamant on their declared standpoints. Both have not budged from their declared positions. Both talk against each other. But yet both have come closer after the talks.

Here lies the real mystery.

September 11 horrible events come as a blessing in disguise for Deuba?

Kathmandu: The unimaginable sad events that happened in the United States last week apparently has come as a blessing in disguise for Nepal's Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba for obvious reasons.

With the clarion call of the U.S.President Bush to all peace-loving democracies of the world to unite for wiping out the menace of terrorism from the face of the earth in more ways than one has gone in favor of Premier Deuba at a time when he is all set to arrive at a peaceful settlement to the Maoists insurgency.

The promptness with which the His Majesty's Government of Nepal the other day expressed its total and unconditional solidarity to the fresh US call also amply suggests that Nepal as a nation will now not tolerate any activities that fall under the domain of terrorism or terrorist actions whether it be committed by own national or for that matter by alien fanatics.

Nepalese Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba now presumes that the events in America will have a profound impact upon the Maoists insurgency and hence the insurgents will settle on terms of the government or face grave consequences.

The sudden spurt seen in the activities of the Nepalese security machinery and the abrupt search-operations conducted on some educational institutions instantly after the September 11 tragedy in New York and Wash.D.C, the government under Deuba apparently has decided to continue the talks with the insurgents but with carrot and stick both in possession.

Intellectuals opine that the September 11 events might have sent chilling waves in the minds of the Maoists considering the changed mood of the world population more so of the lone super power regarding the acts of terrorism. By this time the insurgents might have already calculated in their own manner the weight-age and the determination of the US declaration of a sort of war against the perpetrators of the terrorist attacks on the US last week.

High placed sources say that Deuba administration has been given a go-ahead signal by the US and its allies for the talks at this stage. However, the same sources do guess that the US and its friends in Europe could have presumably also told Deuba not to tolerate insurgents' violent activities henceforth should the talks fail and the insurgents begin violent activities as usual.

Nevertheless, Sher Bahadur Deuba is advised not to rush to conclusions in a hurry. Considering the eagerness for the talks, which the insurgents have exhibited till today, there is nothing to panic. The government side is committed for talks and if talks could restore peace in this country then we need not be carried away by our friend's suggestions.

More so, the government under Deuba has already recognized Maoists insurgency as political entity contrary to his predecessor Koirala who possessed different views regarding the insurgency. Unless the government declares the insurgency a terrorist organization, it can not declare war on them. This is the fact. The United States and its allies too have apparently taken the insurgency as a political problem warranting dialogue, which is what the fresh European Union statement has preferred to hint.

Grave decisions never should be made in a hurry. Restoration of peace must be given priority which is what the Nepalese people wish and to bring about a change in the minds of the insurgents' the government must remain prepared to listen to the demands of the other camp and grant concessions that could be made well remaining under the constitution.

The insurgents too must understand the changed mood of the world and direct their activities that contribute to the strengthening and the consolidation of peace in this Kingdom.

It is time that both the parties in talks understand the internal dynamics of the world's volatile politics that has suddenly taken a different stance since the September 11 deplorable event in the United States.

Leaders said yes to ban; now condemn the ban!

Kathmandu: The government's imposing a ban on all possible gatherings, meetings and the demonstrations in Kathmandu valley for a month has come under scathing attack by practically all the political forces of the country more so from the Left parties.

The fact is that the government became practically nervous considering the sea of men which were to converge in Kathmandu as Maoists cadres on September 21 and the possible violence at time of the meeting on that day and presumably opted to go in for this "undemocratic measure".

The inner politics of the ban imposed by the government is that the establishment under Deuba was badly pressed by the same political parties which tentatively now oppose the ban.

The government apparently got a major support for the ban, which continues to be in force.

Leaders belonging to the Left camp have summarily described the ban as to have gone against the letter and the spirit of the constitution and have told the government to lift the ban immediately.

Defying the orders of the ban, Lila Mani Pokhrel, Monday addressed a small gathering in the heart of Kathmandu but was taken under police custody for almost two hours. Mr. Pokhrel is associated with the United People's Front.

Likewise, the Maoists too have condemned the fresh anti-democratic overtures of the Deuba set-up.

The hidden fact is also that a host of Western democracies and others based in Kathmandu too apparently suggested the government to impose a ban on the Maoists' proposed September congregation in Kathmandu.

The ban continues but then government sources claim that it could be lifted any time from now should the establishment conclude that such gatherings or for that matter the meetings-demonstrations would have little effect on the law and order situation of the country more so in the capital district.

Presumably, the ban would be lifted by the end of the next week.

UML stalwarts differ sharply over Maoists insurgency!

Kathmandu: The UML General Secretary Madhav Nepal possesses only strong words for the Maoists.

Madhav Nepal in the recent days has made speeches wherein he only denounces the activities of the Maoists leaders and their insurgency. In the process, the UML strongman, Madhav Nepal, alleges that the talks being held between the insurgents and the government has dealt less with the people's genuine grievances and have wasted time in peripheral matters.

Mr. Nepal is in favor of the talks albeit, however, he at the same time scathingly criticizes the Maoists leaders as if he had some personal animosity with them.

The fact is that Madhav Nepal began almost a tirade against the Maoists leaders and their insurgency when some leaders from the other camp dubbed him, read Mr. Nepal, to be the second Dr. Rayamajhi, of the Nepal's communists' paraphernalia.

Undoubtedly, this sarcastic comment made against him might have disturbed his peace of mind and as a measure to counter those allegations he could have acquired this new posture against the insurgency.

Be that as it may, Madhav Nepal's rival in the UML camp, K.P.Woli, fortunately possess kind heart towards the insurgency.

This is understandable. My enemy's enemy is my friend indeed.

Talking to newspapermen Monday, K.P.Woli reminded the government in no uncertain terms that the latter should take the Maoists leaders who were attending the talks not as a band of terrorists or for that matter a group of dacoits.

"The government must take them as a full fledged political entity which possessed its own army"', continued Woli.

In the process, comrade Woli suggested the government to grant some more concessions to the Maoists camp so that they could join the mainstream politics.

"Without awarding due concessions to the insurgency at the talks, how can the government ask them to submit their guns"'? Woli added.

Winding up his talks with the media men comrade Woli maintained that an "Interim government" has got to be formed that could house even the members of the Maoists insurgency and the government thus formed would conduct the elections"', said Woli.

He however, said that if for the formation of such a government were not possible under the present constitution, parties in Nepal must do the needful even if it demanded effecting certain changes in the existing constitution.

Analyzing the two different set of theories prevailing in the UML camp regarding the Maoists insurgency, it is clear that the two stalwarts differ sharply not only on this count but possibly on so many other issues confronting the nation of late.

Qatar Airways awards its agents

Kathmandu: The Nepal office of the Qatar Airways last Wednesday organized "Agents Award Function: Evening of Stars" at Hotel Soaltee Crowne Plaza.

Various agents who exhibited their excellent performances in promoting the travel and trade business through the use of the comparatively new airliner, Qatar Airways, were duly recognized and honored by the airways.

Regional manager of the Qatar Airways, Arjun Gang, appreciated the efforts of the agents working in favor of the Qatar airlines and assured them of the needed support which they might need in the future to enhance the travel and trade business in Nepal.

Likewise, the GSA of the Qatar Airways, Mr. Joy Dewan saluted the painstaking efforts of the agents whose efforts, added Dewan, have contributed to the already enhanced prestige and popularity of the Qatar airliner in Nepal.

Formation of IVP Alumni society celebrated

Kathmandu: The Charge d' Affaires of the United States of America Mr. Larry M. Dinger Tuesday organized a reception to celebrate the formation of the International Visitors Program, IVP, Alumni Society.

The reception was well attended by a good number of IVP participants who at different intervals of time in the past had visited United States of America and learnt about the American history, culture, politics, democratic system, print and electronic media and the likes.

The chief editor of the Telegraph weekly also visited the United States as back as in February 1994 under this program.

Chief editor N.P.Upadhyaya during his trip to the US was honored with "Honorary Citizen of Louisville" certificate on February 21 by the then Mayor of the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

The attending IVP participants hoped at the reception that the formation of such Alumni would go a long way in further cementing the Nepal-U.S bilateral relations.

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