I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Politics jolted by Army comments!

Kathmandu: The political sector is shaken. Events last week have triggered a climate of change exposing the stark marzinalization of the political sector from the lay public and the real problems at hand.

When Chief of the Army Staff Prazzwala Rana addresses a staff course gathering complaining of the lack of cooperation from the political establishment in tackling the insurgency he makes news. Curiously, the debate he has launched in public does not delve into the merits of his analysis. Widespread public acknowledgement of his conclusions sidelines this issue. The political sector puts him and the prime minister to task on whether he has exceeded his limits of responsibilities as a public servant by criticizing the political sector. The glaring schism between the parliament and public exists here. The public welcomes the analysis. Parliament deplores it.

A visibly shaken political sector that sees parliament meandering on the issue of constitutional reform throughout the current winter session amidst an insurgency where the military has been deployed in a national emergency is shaken still by the news that His Majesty the King and his son Crown Prince has ventured to tour the most affected areas and met with "frontline" troops. The political sector has been accused of not venturing to do even this. In reality, exhausted public credibility prevents public representatives and their political parties from meeting the people in the affected areas.

Contributing to the parliamentary unease further is the fact that the King and the Crown Prince are well accompanied by the prime minister and his Chief of the Army Staff General Prazzwal Shamsher Rana who made these comments prior to his departure for the Royal tour.

It is not surprising therefore that isolated as they are from the ground rule realities the parliamentary parties have heightened the Kathmandu rumor mill of an possible attempt on "sabotaging" the achievements of the 1990 democratic movement.

Adding to the discomfort of the political sector is the fact that their monopoly of parliament and the media have not prevented widespread public exposure of their self-preservative attempts in their maneuver to channel public debate on constitutional reforms. Regardless of the fact that the front page delve on their speeches propagating the reforms, opinions against it have not been altogether blanked by the partisan media for simple reasons of widespread existence.

The atmosphere of heightened public expectations of major change in the offing recognizing the virtual impotency of the parliamentary parties in correcting the current distortions is further contributed by the five days Maoists bundh against which the parliamentary political organizations by themselves appear unable to galvanize public opinion. It is very revealing indeed that reliance has been given to the government machinery to counter the Maoists move while much of the public are asking of the visible presence of political parties at the public level.

A crisis of Himalayan order averted!

Kathmandu: Visibly the adroit handling of the almost "explosive situation" by the nation's prime minister on time did avert a major crisis which were about to grip the nation.

The political temperature that had suddenly exhibited a upward trend since the evening of 27 March last month was brought skillfully down by prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba.

In the process, sectors interested in fanning the situation to a point of no return and sectors which wished calming down the tensed atmosphere remained busy in their taken up jobs.

In effect, the day the COAS Prazzawal Rana summarily blamed for all the present ailments of the country to have been caused by the "bad governance" of the past twelve years, the Nepali political sector who had remained definitely instrumental in deteriorating the country's situation suddenly sensed that some thing was being cooked up in Kathmandu and that the days of the democratic system in Nepal were numbered.

Since March 27 till Monday afternoon, the informed citizenry kept itself busy in criss-crossing the COAS hard-hitting conclusions. Some said that should the political sector overreact to Monsieur Rana's assessments, the nation's armed forces could retaliate in an unimaginable manner which might do away with the existence of the system itself. Others opined that the responsible quarters should settle the differences in the larger interests of the nation. Yet another section wished that the King intervened into the ongoing scheme of things and facilitate a somewhat third way which satisfied the "ego" of both; the political sector and the nation's armed forces.

However, Sher Bahadur Deuba in the meantime could convince both the conflicting sides. If he "alerted" the COAS for his "political remarks", he could also convince the political sector that the remarks from the COAS meant no "harm" to the system and there was nothing to panic.

The frightened political sector consoled itself trusting Deuba's expressions.

In the meantime, the COAS too clarified that his March 27 "remarks" were portrayed "negatively".

The matter appears to have been settled.

However, our own analysis is slightly different than what others could have in this regard.

Since the "conclusions" and the "straight remarks" made by the COAS Prazzwal Rana against the men who handled the Nepal's governance since 1990 have already been aired and consequently been applauded by the majority of the population, the damage is done by implication.

Even if COAS Rana retracts from his March 27 speech, it is redundant simply because the effect is already there. The fact is that the majority of the population enjoyed Rana's expressions in the sense that during all along these twelve years, no personality had yet dared to utter such fiery languages against Nepal's political sector which in one way or the other had ruined the nation. COAS Rana deserves kudos!

On the other, the current Nepali political sector which is a "beneficiary", too apparently has become alert of the "internal feelings" of the nation's armed forces. By this time the political sector too would have concluded that the Nepali army must have been keeping an eye on their political activities and hence would now become presumably more alert and try its best to provide "good governance"

In effect after this event, both the political sector and the armed forces should have become more alert considering the other side expectedly watching the other's actions.

Be that as it may, COAS Rana's presence at the parliamentary committee for explaining his own version also hints that the Army abides by the rules of the democratic system. This is no less an achievement indeed.

In the whole process, presumably prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has become the winner and the loser both.

Winner in the sense that he cooled down the "tensed" atmosphere to everybody's satisfaction.

Loser in the sense that both the conflicting parties might not trust him any more. It is altogether a different matter that his own party-colleagues suspect his credentials.

ADB welcomes High level Judicial Commission to probe 'property' acquired by Nepali 'politicians'

Kathmandu: The Asian Development Bank annual Country Programming Mission visited Nepal from 18 to 29 March 2002. The Mission consulted with the Government, private sector organizations, NGOs and Nepal's other development partners to agree upon and prioritize proposed support over the period 2003-2005.

According to Dr. Richard Vokes, Nepal Country Director, the consultations focused on ensuring that the proposed program is consistent with the Government's own development strategy and policies as set out in the documents presented at the recent Nepal Development Forum, NDF.

Dr. Vokes made these remarks at a press-meet organized by ADB, Nepal office last week.

ADB recognizes that Nepal is currently facing formidable political and economic difficulties. The recent upsurge in the insurgency, a sharply deteriorating economy, and a growing fiscal crisis, severely constrain efforts to address Nepal's key challenge-its widespread poverty. "However, with persistent widespread poverty being one of the root causes of the insurgency, efforts to restore law and order need to go hand-in-hand with renewed efforts to strengthen development activities, especially at the grassroots level and remote areas", continued Dr. Vokes.

Despite significant progress, continued Dr. Vokes, made in many areas over the last decade, progress has fallen short of people's expectations and there is a widespread perception that the fruits of development have been concentrated among better-off groups and regions, thereby worsening inequality.

"Nepal's development efforts have also been undermined by poor governance and corruption"', added the ADB country director.

The level of future ADB assistance, according to ADB, will depend on country performance against a set of criteria in the areas of macroeconomic management, sector policy reforms, and utilization of existing assistance as per ADBs Performance Based Allocation Policy.

"Our current assessment of performance places Nepal in a base case scenario which makes it eligible for a lending level of $90-100 million per annum from the ADBs concessional ADB fund"', opined Dr. Vokes.

However, in view of the prevailing security situation and the country's fiscal problems, added Dr.Vokes, fexibility in implementing the proposed program will clearly be needed.

Dr Vokes stressed that while the government initiated reform measures in a number of areas including agriculture, power, governance and financial sectors, much more needs to be done to deepen and sustain these reforms to ensure the anticipated impacts on the economy and poverty reduction.

"The government needs to continue to redefine its role in the economy to focus on providing the appropriate leal and regulatory framework within which a competitive private sector can grow"', Dr. Vokes went on to say.

Dr. Vokes feels the urgent need to aggressively prioritize government expenditure, improve the delivery of basic services, and strengthen accountability and transparency.

He opined that tackling Nepal's serious governance problems remain a critical priority indeed.

Lauding the recent efforts of the government regarding the formation of the Judicial probe commission, Dr. Vokes makes these observations which in his own words: "The government has recently registered the Anti-corruption Bill and CIAA Amendment Bill in the Parliament Secretariat and formed the High Level Judicial Commission to probe into the property acquired by politicians and senior bureaucrats to tackle corruption and improve governance. We welcome these moves but apart from the need for Parliament to pass these Bills, what is essential in their effective implementation".

As agreed with the government, says the ADB press release, the ADBs proposed lending program for 2003-2005 comprised of 13 loans totaling $300 million for projects supporting agriculture and rural development, water supply and sanitation, and promotion of technical and ICT education.

The proposed 2003-05 program of assistance also includes a technical assistance, TA, consisting of 24 TAs totaling on average about $4 million per annum. The grant financed TA program will largely focus on capacity building of Nepal's key institutions, sector reviews, and project preparation.

"ADB will continue to review and monitor the implementation of the projects and programs we support to ensure that our policies and procedures and in particular our anti-corruption policy, are followed to help ensure that the funds provided by ADB achieve their intended goals", concluded Dr. Vokes.

Israel following doctrine of self-defense

-Ambassador Avraham Nir

Kathmandu: Here is the heartfelt outburst of the representative of the State of Israel in Kathmandu.

"I am standing in front of you today representing a bleeding nation which is out to defend its citizens from a vicious terror campaign which was imposed upon us", so said Ambassador of the State of Israel, Avraham Nir, at a press conference organized by the embassy in Kathmandu Monday afternoon to let the Nepali media know about the present chaotic situation in and around his country.

The Ambassador lamented over the stance taken by the United Nations Security Council as and when Israel was hit by the Palestinian terrorists groups. In his opinion, not only the UN but together with other developed countries as well remain silent over the killings in Israel but on the contrary as and when the Israeli side retaliates in order to defend its citizens the world opinion comes against it?

"Has the UN ever condemned the Palestinian terror against Israel"? questioned the Ambassador.

"We want peace. The Palestinians under Chairman Arafat wishes to live without Israel", the Ambassador added.

Hurling scathing criticisms against Chairman Yaseer Arafat, Ambassador Nir mentioned that it was Arafat who was fanning the terror and terroristic activities in the entire area.

"All that Chairman Arafat needs not a prosperous Palestine but instead a completely devastated and destroyed Israel", continued Ambassador Nir.

According to Ambassador since 14 March-the date of the arrival of the US Special envoy, General Anthony Zinni as a broker for peace, there have been 38 terrorist attacks on Israel and that since then 70 plus Israeli citizens had been killed.

"The Passover massacre in Netanya and the cold-blooded murder in Alon Moreh were aimed at killing innocent Jews which is what is the goal of the PA", says the press release issued by the embassy distributed at the press meet.

Ambassador Nir claims that his country had been exhibiting utmost restraint despite the pressure from the home population.

"But the tragedy had been that during our restrained period, the PA decided to take sides with those who were using terror rather than fighting terror.

It is the responsibility of every democratic country to defend its citizens and this what the Israeli government is doing at the moment, said the Ambassador, adding, because the PA did not take the action which it was obliged to initiate, we had no choice left but to take that obligation on ourselves.

"Today, Israel is actually exercising its most basic security doctrine which being the doctrine of self defense", concluded the Israeli Ambassador.

Is Koirala a changed personality now?

Kathmandu: Congress president Girija Prasad Koirala's repeated utterances apparently aimed at humiliating the nation's armed forces forced the Army to retaliate in a very strong manner.

To recall, this newspaper had been repeatedly telling the political sector not to irritate the army and the constitutional monarchy through meaningless utterances. The army's fresh conclusions could be seen in this light.

Be that as it may, since Monday evening President Koirala appears to have changed his tone vis-à-vis the Deuba government.

Notably, congress president says that the party must now unitedly strengthen the hands of the incumbent government at a time when the nation was facing tremendous strain due to the Maoists insurgency. This sudden change in heart is meaningful. Some say that Koirala's mind changed considering the Army's indirect hint towards his performance while being in government.

Others say, he could have really changed his attitude because he might have felt that any effort to destabilize his political rival might further irritate the Army whose sensitivities Koirala has already experienced. Yet another section say that Koirala has been forced to change his mind because a powerful section in the RPP plus some congress dissidents have of late been ventilating their desire that the King must intervene to correct the present aberrations in the Nepali political sector.

The fact is that the voice in favor of the monarch stepping in the Nepali politics is ever increasing.

All put together Koirala perhaps has decided to keep his cards unused for the time being.

However, the fact is that Koirala is still in a mood to bring about a collapse of Deuba's government.

In a hurriedly summoned congress districts presidents, Koirala did manage to issue a strong worded statement against Deuba wherein the presidents have summarily denounced the manner Deuba was handling the state affairs.

Add to this, the statements and interviews being granted by Koirala's yes-men wherein they openly express their feelings that is against Deuba's rule.

It could be that Koirala was playing double. On the one hand if he wished to assure Deuba to rest in peace, on the other pumping his yes-men to cry foul against his political rival to the extent that the latter voluntarily resigned from his current post.

But will Deuba step down so easily? Perhaps not. His close aides say that Deuba in the recent days has strengthened himself for understandable and obvious reasons.

Is president Koirala then Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde both?

Will talks resume?

Kathmandu: The leader of the Maoists insurgency, comrade Prachanda has indicated that his insurgency could attend the abruptly suspended talks with the establishment should the latter "created an environment of positive political outlet".

Prachanda made this announcement through a press statement Monday which among others stated that his insurgency had called off the Nepal closure beginning Tuesday.

Prachanda's statement has come after Nepal's informed citizenry, intellectuals, civil society members and the likes put excessive pressure on the leaders of the insurgency and demanded that the Maoists called off their declared Bundh to facilitate the SLC students to appear in the examinations beginning Tuesday.

We arrive at two different set of analysis now.

The first could be that Prachanda sensed the mood of the majority of the Nepali population and concluded that should they proceeded with their Bundh scheme, they might lose people's sympathy for ever. The second theory suggests that the leaders of the insurgency were now divided in themselves. Among the divided, if one wished to continue with violent activities and put excessive pressure on government for talks, The second thought apparently might have preferred talks with the establishment and extract political gains to the extent that could be extracted.

While we do not have much idea which set of theories were being represented by the top-hats of the insurgency, however, HR activists say that most of the top ranking leaders of the insurgency wish now to resume talks with the establishment.

Be that as it may, Prachanda's fresh statement is encouraging and it is time that the HR activists and others peace loving personalities put pressure on both the warring sides and bring both to the negotiating table.

We have no options left other than to bring them both to the talks. 

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