I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Schism between parliament and public threatens democracy!

Kathmandu: Counter moves appear underway on part of country's parliamentary parties set on restoring their exhausted political credibility amidst the masses. The rumor mill has been set afoot seeking public sympathies from an alleged design to undermine the gains of the people's movement for multiparty democracy in 1990. Last week saw the telephone network suggesting that Congress president Girija Prasad Koirala had been put behind bars. The party media currently debates the possibility of another Royal Coup. Allegations of "revivalists" and "reactionary" moves have suddenly surfaced.

The psyche is understandable. Increasingly a section of politicians and the intelligentsia are looking to the King for a solution to Nepal's mounting problems. In doing so they are also reflecting the public conclusion that the political process does not have the answer to the current problems. There is a recognition that the country's parliamentary parties have so monopolized the constitutional process as to ensure that their inability be "tolerated" by the system. Somehow this new search for options appears to have eked out a grudging public admissal from these very parties of their "mistakes" in contributing to the current woes. It is an irony that these "mistakes" are so publicly blatant that the masses refuse to see a solution emanating from the parliamentary sector which has insisted on continuing with their self-absorbing indulgence in "politics" at the expense of the nation.

The widening schisms between parliament and public expectations is the actual threat to democracy. Political strategy finds advantage in redirecting this threat towards the Crown and the Army. This is unlikely to satiate the public search for options, however. A glimmer of hope lies in the hasty resort to "all party" moves to go to the public to "consolidate" democracy. However, any success coming this way would have to depend on the Maoists. With the public closing shops and stalling transportation in disregard to the Maoists cancellation of their five day Bundh, there is ample ground for the overall mood of skepticism and apathy at the grassroots.

At another level, the continuation of moves and countermoves to oust or retain Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba from his precarious seat only serve to add to the public apathy.

Asian development outlook 2002 released; Nepal's economic growth to decline

Kathmandu: Faced with an upsurge of Maoists insurgency and worsening security situation, Nepal's economic growth is expected to decline to at the most 3.5% in 2002 from 5% in 2001. Assuming that the security situation improves ( there are no signs of that-editor), growth could potentially recover to about 5% in 2003, states the Asian Development Outlook, ADO, released here Tuesday morning by the Bank's country office.

Immediately after releasing the Outlook 2002, the country director of the ADB/N, Dr. Richard Vokes gave the salient features of the Asian growth, South Asia in particular, wherein he said that a gradual recovery in global trade and a moderate improvement in capital flows to the region should provide a stimulus to all sub regions of developing Asia.

Talking on South Asia D. Vokes opined that higher growth was expected with GDP rates projected at 5.4 percent in 2002 and 6.4% in 2003, compared to 4.9% in 2001.

"Bangladesh and India will maintain high growth while Nepal's growth will slow down slightly", predicted Dr. Vokes.

"ADBs developing member countries need to accelerate structural reforms. This is especially so given the increased global competition in traditional export markets and the possibility of reduced import growth over the medium term in industrialized countries", suggested ADB Vice president Myong-Ho Shin, releasing the ADO Tuesday in the Philippines.

Talking about the Nepali economic scenario as contained in the Outlook 2002, Dr. Vokes said that though the 1996 Nepal-India trade treaty had ended up the uncertainties, however, the renewed treaty freshly was less favorable to Nepal compared to the previous one.

Dr. Vokes was supported by his colleagues in convincing the Nepali pressmen that the freshly renewed treaty with India was less favorable for Nepal for which they furnished their own justifications.

Dr. Vokes did not say that ADB would issue a statement much similar to the EUs one issued Monday by the members of the EU stationed in Kathmandu but then yet expressed that talks with the Maoists should resume in order to speed up the stalled development process.

According to the Outlook 2002, in 2001, agricultural out put in Nepal weakened tourism, manufacturing and trade were adversely affected by the escalating insurgency and the deaths of the members of the Nepal's Royal family.

The ADO is an annual publication that analyzes and forecast economic trends in the Asia and the Pacific region.

ADO growth forecasts for 2002-03 are based on assumptions that in addition to an improved security situation, the global economic slow-down and the impact of September 11 events in the US on the global economy should also help Nepal.

Growth in the agriculture sector is forecast to decline to about 3% in the current year from 4% in the previous year due to uneven monsoon rains. As manufacturing and tourism sector continue to suffer from the insurgency and external conditions, industry and service sectors are expected to grow at 3.5% in the current year compared to 2.5% and 7.3% respectively in 2001.

The recent renewal of the 1996 Nepal-India Trade Treaty has though ended the uncertainty surrounding Nepal's exports to India, however the new provisions agreed upon by the two sides in the said treaty will require Nepal's industries to become more competitive to maintain their export growth. Nepal will also be subject to a gradual removal of quotas in the US as part of the WTOs agreement on textiles and clothing.

In 2001, because of an expanding labor force and soft economic conditions, there was a 47% underemployment rate coupled with a 7% urban jobless rate, adds the Outlook 2002.

"Domestic revenue collection recorded a strong 16% improvement in 2001 thanks to improved tax administration. However, the budget deficit widened to 4.2% of the GDP in 2001 from 3.3% in 2000 due to higher spending on security together with a salary increase for the civil service and the implementation of a voluntary early retirement scheme. Budget deficit is likely to even widen to 6% of the GDP in 2002 due to the downturn in the economy, fall in growth of domestic revenue, and increased spending on security", the ADO continues.

In 2001, Nepal experienced a sharp downturn in export growth, particularly of garments and woolen carpets. Imports also fell because of sagging demand for manufactured imports and raw materials, the ADO says.

The current deficit, according to the Outlook 2002, remained at 4.4% of the GDP in 2001. Foreign exchange reserves totaled $1 billion-an amount sufficient to cover seven months of imports of goods and services.

Foreign aid dependence became more pronounced in 2001, with foreign loans and grants financing 58% of the development expenditures. This was sharp, says the Outlook 2002, increase from the 47% level on average over the previous five years.

External debt as a proportion of the GDP declined to less than 47%. The debt service ratio fell as well, accounting for a manageable 3.9% of exports.

The ADO notes that historically, high population and low economic growth have spawned poverty. To reduce poverty, Nepal needs to restore law and order, achieve more rapid and broad-based economic growth, while carrying out structural reforms including improved governance and domestic resource mobilization.

Why the political sector repeatedly attacks the army?

Kathmandu: The Nepalese political sector of late is giving an impression that it is still feeling badly shaken by COAS Rana's March 27 statement wherein he had scathingly criticized the former in having remained instrumental in the deterioration of the scheme of things in the country due to what he had preferred to call it "bad governance".

Though the Army top-hat had told a parliamentary committee that his "remarks made on March 27 were "misinterpreted" by the interested sector. To recall, the prime minister under pressure from the political sector informed the parliament that he had "alerted" the Chief of the Army Staff, Mr. Rana.

Nevertheless, impressions in the Katmandu's intellectual circle has been that the political sector is neither satisfied by the expressions made by Mr. Rana nor by the nation's prime minister assurances made in the parliament.

Nepalese academic sector conclude that a sort of schism does exist in between the political sector and the nation's army for obvious reasons.

Reflections to this effect could well be taken from the recent "utterances" of a UML stalwart, Pradip Nepal, who Sunday afternoon made some very surprising comments regarding the army which subsequently got printed in The Rajdhani Daily on Monday morning.

Pradip Nepal maintained that it was none less than the Army Chief Prazzawala Rana who himself went door to door for convincing Nepal's major political leaders to "approve" the state of emergency.

The gist of Mr. Pradip Nepal's observances, according to the said daily, is that at some point COAS Rana even threatened political leaders and pressed them hard to approve the state of emergency.

To recall, it was congress president Girija Prasad Koirala who a month back had openly described that the state of emergency had been imposed in the country not by the ruling government but instead by the Army .

While COAS Rana made it amply clear in his March 27 statement that it was not the wish of the army for the imposition of the emergency but a compulsion of the country as it stood that time and that the army had been mobilized as per the provisions of the constitution. This meant that the Army chief wished to brush aside president Koirala's remarks made against the army.

Now that Koirala's anger towards the army could be understood in the sense that it was this army which exhibited its total reluctance in getting itself mobilized at time when Koirala was the nation's prime minister. But what about the UML's present rhetoric against the nation's army. Is it that the UML is too not that happy with COAS Rana's March 27 speech made in Shivapuri hills? Is it that the UML and its leaders too wish to join the Koirala ranks and deride at the army?

Perhaps yes! The reason is apparently clear.

The bonhomie which the congress president enjoys of late with the UML as a party and more specially with its leader Madhav Nepal forces the intellectuals to conclude that there could be some connections in the two separate statements made either by Koirala some one month back and the fresh revelations made by Pradip Nepal only the other day. Add to this the UML and congress president's internal desire to effect certain constitutional reforms done well within this session itself. Both exhibit the same sense of concern with the same amount of haste. Here lies the crux of the matter.

But what could be the reason that brought the two parties closer to each other?

It is presumably the fear firstly of the military administration dominating the civilian administration out in the districts if left to work for long. And secondly, the Nepali political sector apparently has already concluded that the nation's army since exhibits its unconditional loyalty towards the King and hence fear that the military might go on the rampage which could hit them hard time permitting.

This could be a fact but then there is nothing to panic. Going by the words of COAS Rana himself wherein he says that the Army too is obliged to observe the constitution in a manner other organs of the State were obliged. This means that the army will not cross their limits stipulated in the 1990 constitution.

However, the repeated attacks on the army and its unchallenged "credentials" by the nation's political sector might "irritate" the "attacked ones" resulting in the occurrence of sad events of Himalayan dimensions.

Fortunately, Pradip Nepal has made it clear that "it was a glaring example of yellow journalism". He now says that the expressions printed in some Kathmandu newspapers quoting him making remarks against the nation's army were all baseless and malicious.

But can it be taken for granted that a responsible newspaper like the one of Rajdhani could have printed utterances which Pradip Nepal's even not uttered? It is really very hard to digest. But then one has to respect the clarifications as well.

Koirala blows hot and cold; maneuvers Deuba's ouster

Kathmandu: Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala is indeed a sophisticated political personality.

He blows hot and cold concurrently.

Last week he assured the nation that his party would strengthen the hands of the prime minister and that the time warranted a completely united congress.

And now he is busy in giving a concrete shape to his hidden agenda and that being the summary ouster of prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. He wishes Deuba to step down at the earliest or will be forced to step down through the regular process as per stipulated in the constitution.

Sources close to Koirala say that they possess enough "numerical numbers" for the ouster of prime minister Deuba only to be contradicted by the other rival camp which easily dismisses the claims of the Koirala camp by saying that "had Koirala been equipped with the required magic numbers, he would have not wasted even a single minute"'.

Does this mean that Koirala is short of the required number?

Perhaps not.

Our own analysis has been that president Koirala now comfortably enjoys that magic number because a hosts of ministers in the incumbent cabinet too have assured Koirala that they would support his moves should the fateful moment arrive.

Our own source concludes that Deuba's ministers have become tired of his "tortoise" pace and also feel insecure by the formation of the Royal Judicial Council. This set concludes that at time of crunch, it would be not Deuba but Koirala who could save them all from the "all pervasive" tentacles of the Judicial Commission. This set will feel more secured in joining the Koirala camp for it would be this camp which could become the real target of the Judicial council for obvious reasons.

Rough estimate have it that Koirala has the strength of sixty plus and his rival Deuba simply enjoys the confidence of parliamentarians well below forty.

But then what could be the reason Koirala not initiating the actions aimed at replacing Deuba? Is it due to the changed circumstances in the country? Or is it due to COAS Rana's fiery statements made on March 27 last month? Or is it that he was yet uncertain about the numerical strength he enjoyed at the moment?

All rubbish indeed.

For Koirala nothing exceeded his lust for power as is known to all. However, his reluctance in giving a concrete shape to his internal desires were his "fear" regarding what if Deuba approached the King and convinced him to dissolve the parliament and announce the dates for snap polls?

This is the real fear that restricts Koirala from going ahead with his scheme of things.

On the other, a sort of dilemma is equally plaguing the NC lawmakers. They too more or less have the opinion that if they supported Koirala's moves, no force on earth could block Koirala becoming the next prime minister which they tentatively not would like to see.

"Deuba's speed is disgustingly slow but then yet he is innocent and modest", said a congressite who is in the present cabinet and has yet to make up his mind where to vote should a no confidence move is brought against Deuba in the congress parliamentary party.

"We are tired of Koirala and hence would be lobbying for a new face this time", said another congressite when asked whom would they prefer Koirala or Deuba at time of voting.

This means that a search is there in the congress for a new face.

Is it Chakra Prasad Bastola or Speaker Tara Nath Ranabhat?

To recall, Mr. Bastola possesses the distinction of hijacking a RNAC Twin Otter some thirty years back. The plane was carrying some 30 lakhs of rupees which Monsieur Bastola managed to handover the entire money to his party which was then outlawed by the then regime.

Speaker Tara Nath is considered to be close to Bhattarai. Bastola obviously is closer to president Koirala.

All said and done, will Deuba's ouster be that easy? How the nation's army will take up this political change at the center? Will the change bring about a change in the nation's overall politics? And daddy of them all, will the Maoists greet the change? Keep on guessing.

Be that as it may, the change is inevitable sooner or later.

US grant to counter worst forms of child labor

Kathmandu: The US Secretary of Labor, Elaine L. Chao Monday announced the award of a $4 million grant to implement education programs for children from or at risk of entering the worst forms of child labor in Nepal.

World education, the grantee, will work together on the education component of what is known as a "time bound program"; the grant will expectedly support funding that the Labor Department has already contributed to the ILOs International program on the elimination of child labor, ILO/IPEC, for projects in Nepal.

As part of the Time bound program, the Nepal government and the ILO/IPEC, identified forms of exploitative labor from which children will be removed. The grantee will provide enhanced education opportunities to the children targeted by the Time bound program in 22 districts in Nepal.

These children include child porters, child domestic workers, child rag pickers, children in mines, children in the carpet sector and child victims of trafficking.

The US Labor secretary noted that "education is pivotal not only to a child's development but indeed to a country's development".

It is only, adds Chao, half the battle simply to remove a child from hazardous exploitative work. The other part of the solution, according to Secretary Chao, is to provide a meaningful opportunity for a future and the education is the one which offers the best chance for the future,

The time bound approach has been spearheaded by the ILO and specific countries including Nepal, as a means to eliminate the worst forms of child labor within a defined period through a set of integrated and comprehensive activities.

According to ILO survey, it is estimated that there are 2.6 million working children between the ages of 5 and 14 in Nepal. The number accounts for more than 40% of the country's 6.2 million children. An estimated 40 percent of children who work do not attend school and the remaining 60% of the children combine work with school.

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