I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Girija trip highlights Delhi role!

Kathmandu: The assumption is that Congress politics will resume its course after President Girija Prasad Koirala returns from his "consultations" with his Indian "mentors". The message is that Girija babu is already armed with the necessary signatures for his motion of no-confidence against prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. The message also is, therefore, that the fate of Nepali politics as per congress politics lies across the border. This is above and beyond the perception of Delhi's mission here being the power center. In actual fact Nepal-India relations has a contributor in the Delhi's mission here no doubt but Lainchour itself would find it difficult to withstand the pressures emanating from New Delhi on account of the "direct" relationships and "interactions" at the individual level of the politicians.

This growing Nepali reality, on the other hand, serves also to explain by implication the confidence in the Sher Bahadur Deuba camp and the much publicized achievements claimed from Prime Minister Deuba's "good-will" pilgrimage to New Delhi and Kolkata. Girija babu's much anticipated return here, thus, has its genesis in this growing reality.

It is, indeed, significant, upon Deuba's return that the South tilted media highlights the recent Indian hand over of the injured Maoists seeking treatment across the border to Nepali authorities. Equally significant is the publicity granted agreements between Nepalese authorities and those across the border on a check in cross-border terrorist activities. The significance lies in actuality, on the evidently belated "recognition" of the mutual need for cooperation on this long outstanding area.

Significance therefore can't but be given to the evidently "Western recognition" that the Indian cooperation is essential to the subjugation of terrorism in Nepal. If Nepali foreign policy has made a point, therefore, it is in the international recognition by "default" that Nepali insurgency has a connection across the border.

In this light of thinking Girija babu's India trip can't at all costs be minimized. Indeed, the fault in analysis will lie on a "trend" to underplay it. The Girija camp may by no means be "accused" for this.

As the winter session of the parliament comes to a halt and yet another four day Maoists bundh approaches this week, the fate of the bundh itself and the success of the Girija led all-party public rally against the insurgency will have to be gauged in this light too.

What is significant is that the public at large are increasingly aware of this extra-territorial influence to contribute to the indifference they now tend to harbor on the seemingly engineered political process.

Is UML the loser this time around in politics?

Kathmandu: The loser this time around in Nepali politics is undoubtedly the freshly unified UML.

The reasons are obvious.

Firstly because its one point agenda for the constitutional reforms apparently been shelved at least for this session.

Secondly, it is the loser in the sense that the majority of the population could sense a UML grand design in pressing so hard the Deuba establishment for effecting changes in the constitution the UML way. The people summarily arrived at a conclusion that the UML agenda were nothing but a political ploy to share seats in the government albeit providing a political façade of the constitutional reforms. It is altogether a different matter that the party could seduce congress president Koirala in favor of its one-point agenda who undoubtedly supported the UML move for he saw the whole process would destabilize his rival's Singh Durbar's seat and time permitting facilitating his entrance into Deuba's shoes.

The fact is that the constitution is not going to be changed so easily as it has come already under scathing criticism from among the majority of the population including the informed citizenry. The idea has gone to the dogs.

Thirdly, the UMLs political activities too have taken a back seat due to the state of emergency presumably. This has hit the party very hard for it has not been able to meet the people partly because of emergency and partly because of the fear of being attacked by the insurgents in the remote districts.

This means that the UML as of now is not hitting the media headlines because it has nothing to speak except making certain weak statements plus denouncing Deuba's declared lame-and-duck set.

Fourthly, presumably the UML as a party is not in the good book of the nation's apolitical army for it is this party which only recently made certain comments against the army and its chief only to roll its comments back.

Fifthly, the UML apparently got a major jolt when it sensed that the congress party's disciplinary action against minister Gupta had only boomeranged for the UML could visibly notice the sort of sympathy the minister received from within and without. In effect, minister Gupta being penalised by congress took a different turn which contained the seeds of communal disharmony. The fact is that the UML presumably felt that if minister Gupta is taken to task would indirectly send some signals to the Chief of the Army Staff for obvious reasons. However, things did not go the UML way and hence it is the loser.

To recall, minister Gupta has been expelled from the party for a year or so for his, what the congress claims, indirect support for the COAS March 27 statement made in Shiva Puri forest. Poor minister Gupta rejects this allegation outrightly.

And finally, the UML could be the loser provided the Royal Judicial Commission begins probing into the China-South West air wet-lease deal which this party had brought into effect when the party was in power. If Girija Prasad Koirala could be brought to the court for his most infamous Lauda air scandal then the people would also expect the UML being dragged to the competent court. Informed sources say that the judicial commission is to take care of all those communist leaders who could change their living standards overnight while being in the "historic" nine month old UML government.

However, a glimmer of hope is there for the UML. The party expects that the political vacuum that is there in the country would take a sudden swing the moment Koirala lands Kathmandu from New Delhi.

What prompts this party to conclude such would be outcome is beyond our modest analysis. However, the fact is that after Koirala's arrival Deuba will definitely have very rough and tough time indeed.

It is widely believed that the a section of the congress and the entire UML would love to see the collapse of the incumbent regime for fear of being dragged by the Royal Judicial Commission which by now is all set to probe the illegally amassed wealth, both cash and in kind, by those who were in power specially after the 1990 change.

Intellectuals opine that the Judicial Commission should expand its present limits and extend it upto the leaders of the erstwhile regime as well.

Understandably, the Panchayati leaders were the ones who squeezedthe national exchequer much ahead of the present merciless and corrupt "democratic" leaders.

Koirala granted Royal audience; leaves for New Delhi

Kathmandu: That Nepali politics revolves around congress president Girija Prasad Koirala one way or the other has come true.

Koirala's ongoing trip to New Delhi has created a sort of political vacuum in the country as it is this figure who more often than not gives positive or even at times negative jolts to the national politics and hence attracts media headlines. Although he is not in the country in person but yet he is very much in the news for obvious reasons.

Firstly because it is widely believed that Nepal's leaders' make trips to Delhi either to bounce back to power or retain it.

Secondly, it has been felt in Nepal that Nepali leaders upon completion of their short sojourn in New Delhi suddenly become powerful to the extent that the Kathmandu power center becomes helpless.

Fortunately enough, the incumbent prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba recently made a trip to New Delhi. If past experiences were any indication then what could be concluded that Deuba returned from his Delhi trip well equipped and that he would continue to be in power as long as he wishes or has been told to continue.

A nervous president Koirala perhaps sensed New Delhi's mood and thus abruptly decided to go on in for a similar "pilgrimage" to the place where most of the Nepali leaders would prefer to go even on foot.

Koirala was lucky in the sense that he got a "reason" for his trip to Delhi and that was "to attend the 75 th birth anniversary of Chandra Shekhar-a private friend of the Koirala family whose blessings are all time unconditional for the Koirala's in Nepal.

But this is not all. These were all, in our analysis, peripheral matters.

In our own analysis, several things come to our mind that might have some connections with Koirala's India trip.

Firstly, Koirala wishes to hint the Indian establishment that he is still influencial in Nepali politics and hence New Delhi can't dismiss his role back in Kathmandu.

Secondly, to recall it was president Koirala who had hinted first that the Maoists were some how or the other receiving support from neighboring India. Fortunately enough or look at the sheer coincidence that the Indian foreign minister Jaswant Singh declared the Maoists insurgents as terrorists much ahead of Nepal dubbed them on Indian line.

Thirdly, by this time president Koirala understands that the Maoists insurgents were operating from Indian territories or at least their top-hats were hiding inside India and hence during this trip he would press the Indian establishment to put enough pressures on the leaders of the insurgency so that he could later tell the Nepali press that it was he who "convinced" India and hence he be allowed to rule the country instead of Deuba.

Fourthly, president Koirala in our opinion has not gone Delhi for nothing. It could not be a pleasure trip indeed. Our own source analyses that Koirala, if every thing went smoothly, might meet some Maoists leaders and wish to talk to them and listen to their "fresh" thinking.

To recall, a fortnight back Koirala is on record to have said that if certain changes were effected in the constitution as suggested by him and the UML, the insurgents could be brought back to the national mainstream. This clearly means that Koirala possesses much knowledge about Maoists stance towards his broader democratic alliance and the proposed changes in the constitution.

Since Koirala is the private friend of Chandra Shekhar who is also a former prime minister of India, the former could initiate "meaningful" contacts with the concerned authorities in India for consolidating again his position back in Nepal and also to meet Maoists leaders supposedly residing in India.

Meanwhile, the Indian stance of handing over of the injured Maoists insurgents from its territories to Nepal in the recent days also hints that India has now become suddenly positive towards Nepali sensitivities. Koirala will cash this new Indian gesture indeed.

Koirala's New Delhi trip assumes greater significance because he has left for Delhi after meeting the constitutional monarch. The meeting between the monarch and president Koirala must have some meaning. But what? Keep on guessing.

Nepal receives US grants' in series

Kathmandu: The United States Embassy announced April 15 that it has provided a grant of US$ 200,000 to support the ongoing anti-trafficking initiatives in Nepal.

"The Asia Foundation and local non-governmental organizations will utilize these funds to conduct awareness programs for prevention, assist the survivors of trafficking and review existing legislation on trafficking and immigration to ensure that women's rights to safe migration are well protected", says a press release issued by the American Center in this regard.

According to the release, work will be carried out in five districts identified by the ministry of women, children and social welfare as a sources or transit points for trafficking victims.

The program aims to strengthen the district, municipal and village level trafficking task forces in these districts.

Since passage by the US Congress of the Victims of Trafficking and Violence Protection Act 2000, the US government has increased its support for activities to combat human trafficking, protect victims and prosecute traffickers, it is stated in the press release issued dated 15 April, 2002.

To recall, the US government has been supporting anti-trafficking initiatives in Nepal since 1999, both through the country office of the US Agency for International Development, USAID, and through funding for multilateral organizations including the ILO, UNIFEM and UNICEF.

Previous US Government supported initiatives in Nepal included assistance in establishing a Document Information Center in the concerned ministry; preparation of a national information; education and communications strategy; and illiteracy and awareness training for out-of-school adolscent gorls. In addition, a comic book, "Our Decision: Our Protection"', was produced by the Asia Foundation and distributed in all seventy-five districts of Nepal.

These reader-friendly comic books help the public identify strategy to combat trafficking at the community level back in the villages.

Telegraph adds: In the meanwhile, the US embassy in Kathmandu announced April 12 a Humanitarian Assistance of US$ 100,000 to reduce the suffering of the victims of the Maoists insurgency in Nepal.

In announcing the donation, the US Ambassador Michael Malinowski stated that "we hope that this grant will help the victims of the violence afflicting Nepal and provide aid and comfort to the neediest among them".

The money will be provided to NGOs to fund programs that assess and support basic needs of civilian populations in conflict areas who have been displaced or severely affected and are without resources of their own.

Likewise, the US Embassy announced a US$ 111,860 grant , April 12, to Nepal Society for Earthquake Technology to fund its Earthquake Plan Implementation Project.

How the grant assistance from the US will be utilized by the recipients has got to be watched as Nepali NGOs by this time have already been black listed at least in the eyes of the informed citizenry of this Himalayan Kingdom.

Book on political history of China published in Nepali

Kathmandu: For the first time perhaps a Nepali scholar has taken the pains to bring out a book on China's political history.

Most importantly, the book is in vernacular Nepali.

The said book has been penned by Prof. Dr. Sad Mukh Thapa who is associated with the department of History at the Tribhuban University.

The China Study Center headed by senior journalist Madan Regmi is the publisher of the said book.

Launching the book last week, the chairman of the Royal Standing Committee, Dr.Rayamajhi, opined that the book will cater to the needs of those who wish to learn about the political developments in China more so after the emergence of Chairman Mao-Tse-Dung.

Welcoming the guests, Madan Regmi hoped that the book, first ever of its kind in the country, will facilitate the Nepalese people to understand their Northern neighbor better.

The Chinese Ambassador to the Nepali court expressed that the freshly launched book on China will bring the Nepalese and the Chinese people more closer.

Russia's Middle East Settlement Efforts

Kathmandu: The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Igor Ivanov on April 12 received the Israeli Ambassador, Natan Meron.

On the same day he held a meeting with the heads of the Arab diplomatic missions accredited in Moscow.

During the conversations, the Minister told them about the results of the April 10, Madrid, international Quartet meeting on the Middle East, in which Ivanov, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, US Secretary of State Colin Powell, Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Pique, and Javier Solana, the EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, took part.

It was stressed that the joint statement adopted in Madrid was an important step aimed at the earliest surmounting of today's crisis in the Middle East. This statement received the UN Security Council's unanimous endorsement and is a unified platform of the international community.

The participants in the Madrid meeting expressed full support for the mission of the US Secretary of State in the Middle East. Russia is calling on the Israeli and Palestinian sides, and all the Arab countries to cooperate constructively with Colin Powell in order to stop the dangerous course of events which carries a threat to the interests of all the states and peoples of the Middle East. Ivanov gave particular emphasis to implementation of all the provisions of UN SC resolutions 1402 and 1403 without delay.

The Arab diplomatic missions' heads, and the ambassador of Israel gave a high assessment to the political-diplomatic activities of Russia in the Middle East, aimed at consolidating international efforts, which particularly stood out at the Quartet's Madrid meeting, and to the weighty and balanced joint statement adopted there in favor of the early termination of the conflict and advancement to a general Arab-Israeli settlement.

This is stated in a press statement issued by the embassy of the RF in Kathmandu.

National | 5 Question  | Editorial | 2nd Impression | International | Past