I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Who's to break the stalemate?

Kathmandu: The Girija camp of the congress, slammed hard by last week's Supreme Court decision against them is taking a belligerent posture. After having accused Deuba of sabotaging democracy with "unseen backing", it now alleges that the government is involving the Palace for ulterior purposes. Girija babu's Central Committee has thus decided that the Royal Palace affairs should now be looked after, not by the Prime Minister, but by a separate ministry. The ever present Girija camp "intellectual" Nar Hari Acharya now once again takes up the cudgel of a directly elected Prime Minister.

These aggressive postures expose the Girija camp and the desperation within. It is clear by now that the democracy espoused herein would want to clearly benefit perpetually from the "democracy under threat" bogey while the insinuation is that the Palace that is threatening the democratic system.

It is not surprising therefore that the curious phenomenon of the Girija camp in proximity with the Maoists insurgents has re-emerged. While there is common concurrence by now among observers that the insurgency is a product of Girija excesses in government, the commonality in political standpoints despite the diverse approaches is a remarkable phenomenon. How this will take shape by time of the elections will have to be watched. Clearly, there is a sense of desperation at both the ends. The Maoists want talks and Girija babu wants the advantage. In this sense the expectation that violent pressures from both the ends are forthcoming may not be too farfetched.

 At another level, the UML which welcomed the election challenge with the advantage of a definitely split congress and its own presence in the grassroots government, now are said to be having second thoughts on the advantages itself. The local levels have been dissolved while party workers at the local levels are being singled out by the Maoists evidently because of their election activities. In other areas moreover, the widespread public disenchantment with political workers of all shades is said to be effecting the public response on party electioneering.

At yet another level, the RPP patch-up by postponement of its internal elections is said hardly to effect its own entry into the election arena. The party is still individual based and only a handful pin-pointed RPP "war-lords" are said to be likely to have any advantage in the election situation.

By and large, the effort of political workers to raise confidence in the political process and secure the necessary grassroots vote bank for themselves is said to be running into difficulties. The paucity of security presence in affected areas contribute to the local hesitancy to come out in the open for the elections. A stalemate is likely. How this will be broken will be key to the future of the political process.

The New Delhi pilgrimage in series is mysterious

Kathmandu: The UML leader Madhav Kumar Nepal together with his some trusted colleagues are at the moment in New Delhi's pilgrimage.

Koirala congress is desperately awaiting the decision of the Election Commission in its favor.

Deuba congress is yet to conclude its celebrations that began the evening the nation's apex court decided in its favor last week. It is confident that the EC's decision will also go in its favor.

The RPP temporarily appears relaxed and is seen busy in forging political alliances with other political parties in order to bag as much seats as it can at the November elections.

The Sadbhavana is having some problems with the central leadership issue and congress man Jay Prakash Gupta, the minister for communications in Deuba's cabinet, is yet to decide whether or not to join the Sadbhavana party.

The Maoists wish early talks with the government and describe the November elections as "unnecessary" and "impossible" and have in the process served ultimatum to the government to convene the talks or face consequences.

The government remains adamant on its declared stand and says that talks will not be convened unless the other camp laid down their arms. The fact is that the government in the last thirty days have had already two rounds of talks with the Maoists.

Madhav Nepal and his party though appear to take up the election challenge pleasingly but yet indicate that it would be nice for their party if the Maoists did not exhibit their preference for the elections for practical and obvious reasons.

The international community wishes the local level bodies begin operating so that the people in the villages could mitigate their day to day legal problems.

The presence of the government is missing albeit it could be noticed in lectures aired through its own controlled, dictated, monitored and guided national media.

The private sector media, mostly affiliated to party-lines, have been beating their drums on party lines indeed.

The disenchanted and the totally confused lay men doubt the possibility of the elections and exhibit their meager enthusiasm for the elections.

This is the overall political scenario of the nation and under this almost utterly confused situation the establishment is all set to conduct the election.

Leaving the military forces alone in the Maoists affected areas, the fiery politicians have yet to enter into their constituencies for fear of being attacked by the Maoists who too for unknown reasons have kept their violent activities in a low profile at the moment. Unconfirmed reports say that they were conserving their energy for a ferocious attack on the government should the latter reject their offer of talks with them.

The August 10 statement of the Maoists insurgents apparently gives an impression to all and sundry that they were desperate in having talks with the government and arrive at a viable, and amicable solution to the imbroglio.

However, the statement has also something very chilling for the men in government who have been propagating for the elections and claim the inevitability of the elections at any cost. The Maoists say that if the talks did not convene, they could target all those who have been favoring elections. In the process one gentleman from the insurgency has already concluded that after the government it is the UML paraphernalia that is exhibiting extra enthusiasm in favor of the elections.

It is in this light the present Delhi pilgrimage of Madhav Nepal and his associates has to be taken.

The dates of the elections have been declared. The congress is in a crisis. The Maoists issue continues to be a major problem of the nation. But yet the UML leadership wished to pay its due respect to its mentors, if any, residing in Delhi.

Was it, firstly, an opportune moment for this die-hard party to visit Delhi? If it were then what matters it is discussing with the men with whom they are supposed to meet in Delhi? Do they think that the men in Delhi will take their grievances seriously? But instead will not they preach sermons to our visiting Communists and tell them all to do this and don't do that as they used to do with each and every visiting Nepali delegations?

Deuba began his trip this year to New Delhi. More or less his was an official one. Koirala made a force landing to New Delhi straight from Hong Kong. RPP Chairman Thapa was all set to pay a similar trip to Delhi but unfortunately the sudden demise of India's Vice President shifted his visit indefinitely. However, Mr. Thapa might disappear from Nepal for a few days only to be found in New Delhi. And now the UML high command is already in New Delhi.

Now question arises as to why our leaders every time rush to Delhi and Delhi alone as and when Nepal as a nation is close to some political events of the nature of the elections, for example? This is a mystery indeed.

Concurrently a question of similar nature could also be asked: Why we do not invite our preferred political leaders from India in a manner we used to invite them during 1990, more specifically which our present day leaders did around the 1990 movement time?

Be that as it may, the Delhi pilgrimage in series by our "nationally acclaimed" leaders is not only interesting but meaningful too. But what is the meaning underneath? The election results will perhaps provide some hint.

By the way, the UML leaders have been assured by their mentors in Delhi that they might arrange some meetings with the Maoists leaders now residing in Delhi and its suburbs.

Depression and desperation follow Koirala congress

Kathmandu: One can easily understand the mood of depression and desperation in the Koirala congress immediately after the apex court's verdict that has hundred percent gone against their political preference.

The SC's last Tuesday's verdict has compelled the Koirala congress to take up the election challenge for which it was and apparently is yet unwilling for understandable reasons. This must have caused depression in their camp.

The cause for the desperation is again understandable for it is yet unsure regarding whether or not the Election Commission will award them the Tree and the Flag symbol. Analysing the manner the EC only the other day invited both the camps of the congress at its office to prove their credentials should have come as yet another shock to this camp for the EC summoned both the congress camps as if both were the real congress parties and that there had been no split as such. But the fact is that the congress is a party that has only recently witnessed a vertical split.

Many Koirala loyalists confer amongst themselves that the dilly-dallying of the Election Commission smacks foul against their camp and that if one fine morning or evening the EC awarded the flag and the tree symbol to the Deuba camp would not be at all a surprise. However, if the EC does so then the mood of the Koirala camp is to stage a protest against the ECs fresh decision.

On the other hand, the Deuba congress is confident in getting the tree and the flag symbol from the Election Commission. However, what makes them so confident in their analyses is very difficult to understand.

Whether Koirala camp likes it or not which applies for Deuba camp as well. the decision of the EC on matters regarding to the election symbols would be binding on both the camps and the long awaited decision of the EC will put to an end the rivalries in between the two contending parties on the question of the party symbol.

Why the EC is consuming so much of time in arriving at a clear cut decision on the matters related to the election symbols is causing concerns among the lay men in general and the men in the Koirala camp in particular. The unusual delay see in sorting out this matter by the EC at times raises questions in the very latent motives of the men seated at the EC. The EC being an authoritative body and the case being a subjudice one, any comment regarding the very motive and the intentions of the EC on this matter would be an unwise one but yet one could now fairly say that it is close to the old dictum: Justice delayed is justice denied.

Let's analyze what would happen if Koirala is denied the party flag and symbol.

Firstly, if denied the symbol, the party already reeling under political depression will further add to its mental agony.

Secondly, the men, the illiterate voters in essence, in the villages and the districts will not recognize them as the real congressmen as the voters there don't recognize the candidates but the party's flag and tree as its symbol.

Thirdly, their competitors in the Deuba camp will easily dub their rival group as a fake one and thus will easily lure the congress voters to their sides.

Fourthly, the Koirala camp having no resources and the needed 3Ms-media, muscle and management- will find themselves in a very tight position in their electioneering process. The other camp possesses all the required 3Ms.

Fifthly, all put together, the Koirala congress is the looser which might prompt them to dub the election as having been rigged or conducted on Musarraf style.

What if the Deuba camp is denied the tree and the flag symbol?

Will not cause panic as expected by the other camp. For the Deuba camp is in the government which means that it can use and misuse all the resources of the government including the 3Ms.

The denial of the election symbol to this camp will encourage this camp to speak foul of its rival camp to the extent that they will try to convince the people that the men in the other camp were trying to subvert the system itself and that if they were voted to power would mean again the re-emergence of Koirala-Cracy in the congress party for the abolition of which the Deuba camp only recently began a crusade.

For the illiterate people out in the villages and districts , there is little difference in between Koirala and Deuba. Those who speak in their favor are considered Messiah and Deuba being in government will surely lure the people, the voters, and will make eloquent lectures to which the people will take it for granted.

All in all, the present day political confusion persisting in the congress camps since long all bode ill for Koirala congress for obvious political reasons.

Ms. Jones, new public affairs officer

Kathmandu: Ms. Constance Jones is the new Public Affairs Officer at the US Embassy.

Ms. Jones will concurrently be the Director at the American Center in Gyaneshwar.

She is replacing her predecessor Mr. Robert Kerr, it is learnt.

However, when Ms. Jones will take up her duties in Kathmandu is yet unknown.

New Pakistan Ambassador arriving

Kathmandu: Nepal will soon have a new Ambassador from Pakistan.

Ambassador Fouzia Nasereen is winding up her Nepal tenure by the end of this month.

Mr. Zamir Akram will be Pakistan's accredited Ambassador to this Himalayan Kingdom beginning September, next month.

Mr. Akram prior to Kathmandu assignment served at the Pakistan embassy in Washington D.C.

He is a career diplomat and is expected to arrive Kathmandu on 26 August, 2002-say Pakistan embassy sources in Kathmandu.

Mr. Mohd. Ali is B'desh new Ambassador

Kathmandu: Mr. Syed Shah Mohammad Ali, a career diplomat has been named as Bangladesh Ambassador to the Nepali Court.

Ambassador Ali, prior to his Kathmandu assignment has served at various B'desh diplomatic missions abroad.

Mr. Ali joined the Foreign Service in 1974 and had his first stint at the UN in New York. He later served in Bangladesh missions in Turkey, Belgium, India and Los Angeles, US.

He is at the moment Consul General in Los Angeles.

However, the dates of his Kathmandu arrival is not yet known.

FNJ's protest continues

Kathmandu: The Federation of Nepalese Journalists organized an scheduled talk program on 13 August at the press gallery of the Department of Information, Media Village. The participants from different professional organizations pledged to actively take part in the proposed program of "human chain" to be formed at Ratna Park on 15 August.

The Federation of Nepalese Journalists, under the main slogan "Let journalists live and write with freedom", has claimed that a commission be formed in order to carry out legal investigation into the atrocities done on the press after the declaration of the state of emergency, which is among its five point demand.

Sindhu Nath Pyakural, the President of Nepal Bar Association, claimed that the state must respect the organizations established in accordance with the law of the land and also must respect the fundamental rights of and the press freedom guaranteed by the constitution. He further announced that the members of the Bar Association will actively participate in the "human chain" to be formed at the Ratna Park.

Among others who spoke on the occasion were Bharat Raj Pahadi of Nepal Engineers Association, Pradip Jung Pande of FNCCI, Bhola Nath Pokhrel of Nepal Civil Servants Association, Devendra Gautam of Editors and Publishers Association and Tara Nath Dahal of FNJ, all of whom were quite enthusiastic about the program of the Federation.

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