I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Only King can end confusion!

Katmandu: The problem remain. The UML gathering Sunday as promised was sizeable and vociferous in its attack on the King’s constitution of government and its demand for an interim all-party-government under article 128 which every body knows was included in the constitution to provide legality to the Krishna Prasad Bhattarai led interim government of 1990 that charted the constitution and conducted elections as a consequence of the mass movement for the restoration of multi-party democracy.

The UML bolstered by Madhav Nepal’s recent audience with the King and fresh rumors of the imminence of a Madhav Nepal’s led government ( which presumably is to be all-party) has only added to the confusion. Despite Arjun Narsigh KC’s admissal at the RPP Pokhara convention that the congress-Girija is willing to participate in a Madhav Nepal’s led government, the fact is that Koirala who also had his audience insists that the only constitutional remedy to the current impasse is the restoration of the dissolved parliament. An interim government of the UML type would thus be unconstitutional to Girija Koirala still. Of course, Sher Bahadur Deuba, whose party has also fulfilled its round of public demonstration, maintains that the lone constitutional options for the King is to acquiesce to his demand for his government to be reinstated with the responsibility of conducting the elections.

Adding to the constitutional malaise is the election of Pashupati Shumsher Rana to the RPP’s presidency on a platform that seeks cooperation with the King to solve the current crisis regardless of his outgoing chairman’s threat to "oppose" the RPPs trend to plough the Palace stance. Yet another source of confusion is the fringe Left in the parliament who now openly toe the Maoists line for the constituent assembly and continue demonstrating on that basis.

Of course, the Maoists themselves remain the biggest source of confusion in the current malaise. They offer talks. But don’t come to it. They have ignored government. They have paralyzed the state. Perhaps the newest source of confusion is the government itself. It has demonstrated its "incompetence" in delivering even the rudiments of the governance that the public so enthusiastically expected of it after the Royal step of October 4.

It is clear therefore that the country is bracing itself for still more crisis the size of which is likely to be compounded by the chaotic line running at cross purposes adopted by the organized political sector in totality.

While there is widespread agreements that this sector is contributing actively to this stage of a failed state. The undercurrent is that it is still the King which is the sole capable institution to tame the organized sector to adopt a comprehensive and productive line. Perhaps this stage is awaited.

Neither it is a warning nor a challenge to the monarch says Madhav Nepal

Kathmandu: Surprising though it may appear but the fact is that Nepali leaders begin talking differently as and when they are granted "Royal Audience".

The latest instance is that of Monsieur Madhav Nepal who became so much excited that he made an off-the-cuff blunt remark which challenged even the authority and the integrity of the constitutional monarch. This challenging comment against the King he made in Butwal wherein he said: " Don’t play politics. If you wish to play politics, come to the field putting off the crown".

When asked by this scribe at the SAARC Secretariat on December 9 whether his blunt remarks were a "challenge" or a "warning" to the monarch, he says: "it is neither a challenge nor a warning to the monarch. However, what I wanted to hint the monarch that the population still were with the political parties and that the King must not undermine the people’s power".

Be that as it may, hardly his blunt remarks had reached Kathmandu, local newspapers broke the news that Mr. Nepal was granted Royal audience. The fact is that a fiery Madhav Nepal who made the remarks mentioned above suddenly changed his tone at a mass meeting held the otherday in Kathmandu.

Those who were present on the occasion of the mass meet opined that of all the UML leaders who spoke on the occasion, it was Mr. Nepal alone who observed total and unbelievable "restraint" in his speech made on that day.

To recall, a few months back, immediately after the October 4 Royal move, it was K.P.Woli who began crying any thing under the sun against the King soon had to change his blistering attack on the King simply because he had met the King in private. Upon return from the Palace it was Woli who talked to the media that the King possessed immense respect for the democratic system and that the King would do no harm to the ongoing system.

Now it is Bam Dev from the UML who has taken over the charge of maligning the prestige of the constitutional monarch. It was he who last week made scathing comments against the King. Should this mean that Mr. Bam Dev now wishes to receive Royal audience? Perhaps yes because this has been the tradition that has been very carefully maintained by Nepali leaders.

Yet another personality who created havoc against the King and went to the extent that his party might consider the option of constitutional monarchy in the country was Girija Prasad Koirala.

However, his shrillness and the intensity with which he used to pounce on the personality of the monarch till last fortnight suddenly changed his tone. The reason: He was invited for a Royal audience.

Should this mean that the Nepali leaders possess double tongue? Do they speak different than what they do the same for public consumption?

Political pundits have yet to understand the nitty-gritty of the political behaviour of Nepal’s political leaders.

What is also important is that the constitutional monarch apparently is inviting those particular Nepali leaders for a royal audience who speak louder against him.

Not very surprising then the UML which had served a month long ultimatum to the King advising the latter to correct his October 4 moves has allowed the monarch a grace period in order to correct the same.

However, intellectuals fail to understand as to how a government formed by the King and led by Chand becomes unconstitutional and concurrently assumes constitutional and democratic status if it were to led by Koirala or for that matter Madhav Nepal?

US sends different political signals to different political quarters

Kathmandu: The visit of US Assistant Secretary of State, Ms. Christina Rocca, to Nepal though was a short one but then its implication in the country’s politics would go a long way, opine Nepal’s informed citizenry.

Ms. Rocca though wished to listen much from those whom she met but yet she apparently has sounded so many things to so many leaders of political parties including the constitutional monarch as well.

However, what transpired in between the Nepali monarch and the US dignitary is beyond our analysis, but still what could be analyzed from her statements made during her stay in Nepal is that she must have impressed upon the monarch to seek the "support" and win the "confidence" of the political parties of the country.

In other words, Ms. Rocca should have told the monarch not to proceed "alone".

The visiting US authority has also made some points that apparently sends different signals to different groupings including the Maoists.

For example, Ms. Rocca considers the escalation of the Maoists activities in the country as a result of what she prefers to call as "the distance between the political parties". In saying so Ms. Rocca apparently hints the political parties to come to terms with each other at least on matters pertaining to the mega issue of Maoists insurgency so that the overly stretched issue makes a safe landing.

In the same vein, she sends threat loaded signals to the Maoists as well and suggests the insurgency to "lay down the arms" and end the "senseless violence" or else in her own words "we are committed to help Nepal combat the insurgency by providing security assistance to the Nepalese government". This means that the US establishment will continue its support to Nepal ad infinitum unless the insurgency lay down their arms.

But that is not all. There is also a good news for the Maoists.

According to Ms. Rocca, the Maoists violence till this moment had not assumed a "terrorist" dimension for she says that "the Maoists have not yet been put on any official terrorist list" which means that the US as yet considers the Maoists movement as an "insurgency". However, the US wishes to send signals to the Maoists that they could list them as terrorist should the Maoists continue "their violence unabated".

This also concurrently means that US would not mind if the Maoists laid down their arms and attend to the talks then they might be absolved from the tag of terrorist.

Ms. Rocca’s statement made available to senior editors on Saturday at Radisson Hotel after a working luncheon with them also has some pinching words for the political parties who out and out reiterate that the incumbent government led by Chand were an unconstitutional one and hence have been demanding the replacement of the government by a new set. For the political parties toeing this line Ms. Rocca says "Nepal is a multi-party democracy" and in saying so she apparently hints the political paraphernalia that her government considers the Chand’s government as a democratic government.

This should perhaps satisfy Koirala and Mr. Nepal who have remained vocal in claiming that the Chand’s cabinet were an undemocratic entity.

However, Nepali intellectuals remained dumbfounded when they learnt the Nepali Home Minister Mr. Thapa taking all of a sudden a hardened posture on Maoists issue at time when the US minister landed in Kathmandu. In effect, the minister in his previous remarks used to have mild-tone while describing the Maoists and the issue pertaining to the talks with the former. However, the minister’s remarks suddenly changed the day Ms. Rocca was in town. And that was not all. Prime Minister Chand the day after in Pokhara maintained that the Maoists continued to be "terrorists".

Should this mean that Ms. Rocca advised the Nepali establishment to have carrot and stick both in dealing with the Maoists insurgency. Does this mean that Ms. Rocca insisted the Nepali side not to deter from its original line unless the other party yielded? Interpretations galore indeed.

Sources close to the PM’s secretariat say that Ms. Rocca point blank told Premier Chand to declare the dates for the elections and satisfy the anxieties of the international community for obvious reasons.

The statement thus distributed among the senior editors that day has a paragraph which runs like this: " we are in a close, continuing dialogue with INDIA and other concerned countries that want to see constitutional rule and multiparty democracy continue and want to see a peaceful and prosperous Nepal".

Analysts remain surprised over the paragraph singling out our southern neighbor India. The question arises as to why the US side mentioned the name only of INDIA? Perhaps here lies the significance. But what? Keep on analysing.

All put together, Ms. Rocca’s trip to Kathmandu appears to have yielded positive results.

RPP has now a new Captain!

Kathmandu: The recently concluded Pokhara convention of the RPP has elevated the ranks of Pashupati Shamsher Rana.

Mr. Rana is now the chairman of the party.

The new chairman of the RPP won the post defeating his political rivals Dr. Prakash Chandra Lohani and Rabindra Nath Sharma respectively with high margin.

Political analysts belonging to the congress and the UML camps consider Mr. Rana’s victory as a victory of the hard-liners over the liberals represented respectively by Mr. Rana himself and Dr. Lohani.

According to them Rana’s tenure as RPP president might bring the party close to the Palace which the Rana followers reject out rightly.

However, considering the statement released by the party immediately after the convention one is forced to conclude that Rana’s presidency would be very comfortable to the constitutional monarch for obvious reasons. The statement said in effect that the King should be allowed to act at times of crisis of the sort wherein the country was in today.

This means that the Rana panel in the new committee of the RPP will no doubt be more assertive in providing a clear and distinct role to the King in the future within the democratic framework of the 1990 constitution.

It is yet to be seen as to how the liberals who apparently have been summarily defeated this round will react to this hard line stance given personality clashes and leg pulling becoming a common phenomena in the Nepali polity and the so called liberals or for that matter the hard-liners of the RPP could be no exception to this. However, in the final analysis, what could be said following the victory of Rana as the party president is that; if he can avoid the intra-party back-biting and leg-pulling, he can surely provide concrete insights to the king and assist him in addressing the shortcoming of the past mal-governance and non-functioning remaining well within the parliamentary democratic parameter.

Analysts hope that if done so might help bridge the gap between the King and the various political parties which definitely is at its lowest ebb at the moment.

Undenyingly, Rana as a seasoned politician and highly qualified personality can and should steer the party listening to the voices of all including those who dare to differ with his political stances in order to elevate the party to the ranks of what the congress and the UML have today.

Congratulations Mr. Rana!

US Assistant Secretary Ms. Rocca’s talking points!

Kathmandu: Below we reproduce the full text of the hand-out provided by the visiting US Assistant Secretary Ms. Christina Rocca to the senior editors on December 14 during the luncheon hosted by the DCM of the US Embassy, Dr. Boggs, at the Hotel Radisson. We believe that that this statement will help clarify US global security concern in general and also in particular the Maoists insurgency in Nepal. In some way it could perhaps be considered as US policy towards Nepal : editor.

Begin text:

# Security is always a topic for concern for the United States, particularly in these times of international terrorism, and we3 thank the Nepal government for their support.

# The purpose of this visit is in the context of a continuing dialogue between our governments. However we are concerned about the continued violence in Nepal that seems to be exacerbated by the distance between the different political parties. We therefore urges all democratic political forces to come together and take a united stand against the escalating political violence that is a serious threat for the democratic and economic stability of the country and causes grievous suffering of innocent people.

# While we have no intention of interfering in the internal politics of Nepal we are issuing a strong call for the end of this violence, which we condemn. It is imperative that the Maoists enter into peaceful dialogue with the governments so that Nepal’s democracy and economy may flourish.

# The best way to show commitment to dialogue is for the Maoists to lay down their arms and end the senseless violence.

# We are committed to help Nepal combat the insurgency by providing security assistance to the Nepalese government. Nepal is a multi-party democracy and it is the duty of a democratic government to protect its citizens. We are committed to help in this effort. Assistance will be in the form of a package including equipment, supplies and training for the Nepalese security forces. The training will also include a strong human rights element.

# We are involved in a close, continuing dialogue with INDIA and other concerned countries that want to see constitutional rule and multi-party democracy continue and want to see a peaceful and prosperous Nepal.

# We condemn the ongoing, escalating violence that targets a peaceful people and even involves innocent children by forcing school closures and abducting them for service in the insurgent forces.

# Although the Maoist have not yet been put on any official terrorist list, this step may be taken into consideration if their violence continues unabated.

# Our commitment to assist the government of Nepal in light of the insurgency also includes a significant increase in development funds to address social and economic needs – from 24 to 38 million dollars in the coming years. This increased development assistance will incorporate many programs to focus on the causes of the insurgency and rehabilitation of its victims.

# Again, we all agree that the violence has to end. Violent insurgency is not an answer. It threatens to destroy Nepal’s social, economic, and democratic infrastructure. The tactics currently employed by the Maoist insurgents are reminiscent of the tactics of the Polpot in the indiscriminate taking of innocent lives, including the forced recruitment and victimization of innocent children. These tactics are in complete violation of all human rights and indefensible.

If you employ terrorist tactics then you are, in act, a terrorist.

End text:

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