I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
New game to sully monarch?

Kathmandu: His Majesty King Gyanendra's continuing exposure to persons hit the headlines last week when one such conversation seeking the opinion of the constitutional monarch on the issue of constituent assembly was purposively publicized. The King of course, had little recourse other than to use his standard repartee on following the people's wishes. But the publication of the conversation as a news item was so made out as to suggest his agreement on the topic. The mischief was done.

The King has been firm on his standpoints on constitutionalism. This would suggest that His Majesty subscribes to the provisions of the current constitution. In this case the constitution empowers none for a constituent assembly or for a referendum for such. By extension thus the question of the King calling for a constituent assembly is redundant under the current constitution. The fact that this provision or lack of it was conveniently ignored in the question and the coverage sets one thinking about the very design of the question itself.

To date it is only the Maoists who have the constituent assembly in their agenda. All parliamentary parties oppose it. It is this that has been controversialised. What must be asked now is which other sector would benefit from such a coverage.

As things stand Nepali civil society is currently paralyzed by the virtual inability of Nepal's parliamentary parties to extricate themselves from obsessive power-plays that have cast asunder the need for real governance. In this sense the Maoists demand for a constituent assembly in an environment where they can conduct campaigns with the barrel of the gun. The advantage sought from sectors amidst the current disorganization deserves more attention. Which quarters are seeking this benefit is indeed a somber matter of study.

At another level, it appears that some sectors have been rubbed wrong by the generally well received exposure of His Majesty King Gyanendra through the media meetings. Could it be that such sectors exist that would want to controversialise the monarch again?

At this particular juncture the timing of the said controversy could also be of import.

It now appears certain that the move against Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba from within his own party is serious. It is also certain that the platform of a "'Broader Democratic Alliance"' engineered by his opponents is hardly adequate to meet the systemic response needed to solve Nepal's mounting problems. It is in fact clear to the lay public that a monarchical role to break the deadlock and set the things in motion appears the only solution at the moment. While much is being made of the current chaos there is hesitancy in voicing this aspect in clear terms. Is it to abort such a move that monarchy is once more being controversialised?

The grand plan to destabilize Deuba regime!

Kathmandu: The ruling congress party is in action.

However, the sudden activity seen in the congress party is not at all concerned with the interest of the nation. The fact is that the two distinct set of factions in the congress wish to turn the tide in their respective favor.

Give it any name, the fact is that while the incumbent Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is struggling hard to survive and continue in the present post, President Koirala is trying his best to dislodge his nearest political rival on this or that pretext. In the process President Koirala have had several round of meetings with nation's major political parties and has apparently bagged their sympathies as well in so far as the lifting of the state of emergency was concerned.

Add to this the thirteen parties in opposition in a recently held meeting decided to tell the Prime Minister to bring an end to the state of emergency. This set opines that the state of emergency could do little in curbing the threats of the insurgents but instead became a tool for the harrassment of their activists back in the districts.

The main opposition too is not satisfied with the state of emergency and its achievements over the past two months plus.

The UML is pressing hard the Deuba establishment to justify the imposition of the emergency in the nation. In UML opinion, the imposition of the emergency and the mobilization of the army were two different things. According to the UML, while the promulgation of a state of emergency in the country is the job of the government of the day , on the other the mobilization of the army to the Maoists affected areas could best be effected through a decision of the nation's judicial council.

"Imposition of a state of emergency and mobilization of the army were two different things and that the government of the day has mixed it up and has made to understand that these were tied-up affairs", said K.P.Woli to a local weekly.

Talking to the same weekly Woli further said that his party has yet to decide on the endorsement of the state of emergency in the country.

Surprising of it all is the fact that a sizeable chunk of the congressmen led apparently by President Koirala have concluded that the state of emergency has got to be lifted at the earliest.

The fact is that the faction of the congress led by President Koirala is more vocal against the state of emergency than rest of the opposition parties.

While many would agree that Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's tenure in office remained a very dull period performance wise, but yet many agree that Deuba could not deliver goods because his regime felt every minute a threat from his party opposition. In the process, Deuba could not deliver. Could be a lame excuse indeed.

"He could have delivered. In declaring sweeping reforms, president Koirala would not have come in his way and hence to blame Koirala for his personal inaction is unjustifiable by all accounts", said a Congressite who wished not to divulge his allegiance to this or that faction of the congress.

Nevertheless, the congress central committee meeting schedule for today will in all likelihood grill the Prime Minister for not being able to utilise the state of emergency in the overall interests of the nation. Moreover, the meeting will also press Deuba to trim the size of the present cabinet or else face the consequences.

Unconfirmed reports have it that the Koirala faction has already collected 57 signatures from its lawmakers in order to send frightening signals to the sitting Prime Minister.

The plan is to terrify Deuba first. Secondly, the plan is to hint Deuba that almost 57 lawmakers were against him. Thirdly, the plan is to tell Deuba to trim the cabinet.

In doing so, as per the "plan", Deuba will sack some of the ministers from the cabinet making the ousted members angry only to be cashed by the Koirala faction.

Undoubtedly, the moment the ministers are sacked or told to quit, this "group" will feel badly humiliated and insulted. It is at this juncture that the Koirala lobby would rub ointment in the fresh wounds of the freshly ousted members.

In the process, the men opposing Deuba will swell automatically and will add to the numerical strength of the other camp.

This means that the stage is set for bringing about a premature death to the incumbent Deuba regime.

A poor Deuba is in know of these games currently being played against him and his regime indeed.

"I understand what would happen to my government the moment the size of the cabinet is trimmed", said a serious Deuba Monday afternoon while inaugurating the Annual conference of the Lalitpur Sub-municipality.

This means that Deuba is aware of the moves aimed at destabilizing his regime and he also knows that to trim the cabinet at this juncture will be fatal for his government's existence even.

This finally should mean that Deuba will resist the pressure from his party-men to the hilt and will not wish to irritate his cabinet colleagues. This finally should mean that the nation will have to bear the burden of this jumbo-sized cabinet for long.

Be that as it may, Deuba regime is becoming unpopular for it has not delivered goods. The regime is becoming more unpopular for it is alleged that some noted corrupts were seated in the cabinet. The Deuba regime could have done sweeping reforms in the name of the poverty stricken masses, but it didn't. The regime could have utilized the state of emergency by axing the smugglers, defaulters and the corrupt leaders and the likes. But it could not. Lamenting alone can't be the solution to the nation's affairs.

However, though the time has run out but yet Deuba can survive the onslaughts provided he initiates actions that go in favor of the common men. And this he has to do well at the very beginning of the impending winter session. Failing to act on time will facilitate his detractors to push their plan of action which were all aimed against him and his regime.

Will a reunified UML affect the Nepali politics ?

Kathmandu: The unconditional merger of the Marxists-Leninists party, ML, led by strongman Bam Dev Gautam into the mainstream UML in a day or two is in the news.

If every thing went smoothly, the ML-UML reunion will take place by mid February, predict Kathmandu intellectuals who have been closely monitoring the "compulsion" behind this reunification.

Intellectuals remain baffled of this sudden reunion efforts because neither the ML nor the UML have separately or even collectively apologized for the split that came into effect some four years ago.

To add to this, neither the ML nor the UML have talked any thing against the root cause that caused the split then. In effect, the ML split on two counts. Firstly, the ML considered the Mahakali treaty to be an unequal one and wished to live separately for it felt that it were the sizeable chunk of the UML stalwarts that sided with the treaty at time of its ratification in the parliament. Secondly, the ML pressed the UML to consider neighboring India and the lone super power the United States of America as an Expansionist and Imperialist state respectively.

The general public still await the "UML party's official thinking" regarding India and United States of America.

Conversely the people would very much wish to know the ML's official line vis-à-vis India and United States of America. Since as yet there has been no such formulation on the part of the ML on those two countries, the lay men conclude that the ML too has apparently subscribed to the UML line. Or else what could have been decided in between the ML and the UML not to dig the past.

At best what could have been finalized in between the ML and the UML is that since the times have changed and the world politics too have undergone a sea change over the years and hence looking at the two particular countries must also be changed.

If this is so then what could be concluded is that the ML in its bid to forge unity with the UML has completely changed "ideologically".

The differences which caused the split remain intact; the ideological differences too remain intact; the men who denounced the split also remain intact in high positions in both the parties but yet both the parties exhibit their eagerness to bring about an early unification! Surprising indeed.

More over, the UML leaders who possessed very demeaning words for Bam Dev and his colleagues at time of the split too appear to be in a mood to greet them with a Red Carpet Welcome.

What could be the reason behind this game of reunification?

Nepal's conspiratorial politics is difficult to understand. What appears above ground is not beneath and vice versa.

However, this reunification is being effected at a time when Nepal as a nation-state is in a fluid state. More so the country is in a state of emergency. Most importantly, the ruling party is badly divided and a sort of topple Deuba move is on.

Whether it is a design engineered by some extraneous forces who wish the congress to go to the dogs and make the "ideologically" rigid communists of the bygone years a true "democratic" force will have to be watched.

So far what is clear is that neither the congress can claim today that it was yet a totally democratic force in the nation nor the communists could collect the courage to claim that they continue to be a dogmatic entity of the sort of the communists of the erstwhile Soviet Union or for that matter those of the Communist China.

Both have become a diluted force indeed. While on the one hand the congress has over the years lost its democratic credentials through its own aristocratic performance, then on the other the communists paraphernalia too has abandoned its dogmatic character and has instead exhibited that if allowed they too could fit into the role of the capitalists.

Be that as it may, the ML-UML reunification will change the politics of the nation in following weeks and months. The ruling congress will have very hard times to cope with this sudden change brought about by this sudden unification. The unification will definitely make the UML a dangerous and formidable force indeed.

How the ruling party copes with this challenge will have to be watched. Conversely, how the unified UML exhibits its strength and what role it plays after the unification too will be carefully watched.

Thanks Chandra Prakash Mainali, a veteran communist who has decided that he would led the ML even if his colleagues abandoned the party. However, Mainali's move to keep the presence of the ML intact would perhaps facilitate the men from the unified UML to swing their loyalties again to the ML should a serious crisis engulf the mainstream UML. Mainali perhaps considers that the unified UML will face a major jolt when two tigers, read K.P.Woli and Bam Dev, will wish to dominate the proceedings of the unified UML which would be in all likelihood be countered by the other. One forest, only one tiger.

This mean that Mainali believes that the present ML-UML unification would be a short-lived affair.

This will have to be watched again.

How the divided Congress will face unified UML?

Kathmandu: A reunified UML will undoubtedly face the forthcoming winter session of the Nepali parliament with a renewed vigor.

On the contrary, the ruling party will attend the session with a divided mind-set.

While the congress has to fight its own battle, the unified UML will in all likelihood benefit from the congress' position as it stands today.

Local intellectuals give plus points to the UML communists' political acumen over their immediate opposition, the ruling congress part, in the sense that the former is giving a shape to their reunification efforts at a time when the entire congress party is engaged in degrading the other camp inside its own party through the utilization of fair or foul means.

Such internal squabbles in the ruling party surely benefits the main opposition which in essence is a government in waiting.

The present unification efforts of the ML and the UML is also apparently guided by the hard fact that the party lost the last election to the extent that the UML had to remain content with the present second position in the parliament and the ML became a party in the foot-path.

"It was really unfortunate that the UML split and the benefit went easily into the pockets of the congress which is ruling the country", said a UMLite who apparently exhibited his pleasure in the ongoing unification process in between the two parties, ML and the UML.

Similarly, a congress-man says that the ML-UML reunification will in all probability hit the strength of the congress in the districts at time of the next general election.

In his opinion, the moment the two communists parties unite would automatically boost the morale of their workers in the villages and the districts.

"The communists are better organized and disciplined in the grass-root level and hence they will come down heavily against us which is what I fear", said a congress-man who is closely watching the ML-UML reunification moves.

Kathmandu intellectuals predict that if the present unification of the ML and the UML continues until the next general elections at least and that if the congress continues to remain divided as it is now, no force on earth can pose hurdle of any sort to the UML from forming the next government in the country.

Some even say that the present unification is aimed at that "goal" which is only but natural.

The UML plan is to become the mainstream of the communists parties and will in the process wish to seduce other smaller communist paraphernalia to join the UML.

Whether it succeeds or not in seducing the countless communists parties to an unconditional merger into the UML will perhaps determine the would be role of the UML in the impending scheme of things.

How the congress party in that scenario would take up the UML challenge will be interesting to watch. More so how the other non-communist parties like the RPP and the Sadbhavana will take up the UML challenge will also have to be carefully seen.

Or will a broader alliance of non communist parties will have to be formed to take up the challenges posed to them by the unified UML?

Be that as it may, the unification of the ML and the UML will bring about a big political upheaval in the country.

NEFAS greets Pakistani envoy

Kathmandu: The Nepal Foundation for Advanced Studies, NEFAS, last week greeted the Pakistani Ambassador Ms. Fouzia Nasereen at its office in Kirtipur.

During the meeting with the NEFAS scholars, the Pakistani diplomat explained the yet untapped areas of cooperation where the two nations could share each other's expertise for mutual benefit.

Technology and the energy sectors were such two areas where Nepal and Pakistan could benefit from each others' experience.

Responding to queries from the scholars attending the meet last Thursday, Ms. Fouzia Nasereen opined that the bilateral relation between the two countries were "problem free".

"It is time now that the scholars of the two countries come together and discuss the ways and means on how to make South Asia a region free from tension", added the Ambassador.

Commenting on the just concluded SAARC Summit in Kathmandu, Ms. Nasereen said that her country wished the SAARC as a process growing fast so that the poverty stricken lot of this region benefit.

According to Madame Ambassador, her country was open for dialogue with India in order to reduce tension in South Asia.

NEFAS Executive director Mr. Ananda Shrestha gave the welcome speech.

Joint statement of the Foreign Ministers of the Russian Federation and of the Republic of India

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Mr. Igor Ivanov, paid an official visit to India on 3-4 February 2002. The Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation held discussions with the Minister of External Affairs of the Republic of India Mr. Jaswant Singh on a wide range of bilateral, regional and international issues.

The External Affairs Minister of India and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation reiterated their countries' firm commitment, in accordance with the Moscow Declaration signed in November 2001, to continue close cooperation on the issue of international terrorism. Both sides agreed that international terrorism threatens not only the security of India and Russia, but also poses a serious threat to global peace and security and represents a grave violation of human rights and a crime against humanity. The sides agreed that there is no justification for terrorism, and this must be fought against without compromise wherever it exists. Russia and India firmly reject any attempts to identify terrorism with any particular religion. Those who seek to do so are as wrong as those who seek to use religion to justify acts of terrorism.

India and Russia affirmed that the international efforts to eradicate Al Qaida and Taliban movement in Afghanistan is an important element of the common struggle against terrorism and its sponsors everywhere in the world on the basis of international law. The existence of extensive ties between the Al Qaida and Taliban with terrorist organizations active in other parts of the world, including Chechnya, the Central Asian Republics and the Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir, calls for a campaign against terrorism that involves close cooperation by all members of the International community, and which is comprehensive, long-term, multi-dimensional, and executed consistently, resolutely, purposefully and without compromise. There is no place for either subjectivity, or double standards, in the combat against terrorism.

India and the Russian Federation reaffirmed the important role that the United Nations and the international community must play in the international campaign against terrorism. They welcomed Security Council Resolution 1373 of September 28, 2001 and the establishment of a Counter Terrorism Committee focussed on monitoring of implementation by States of their international obligations in the struggle against terrorism - primarily with the view to reliably curtailing any type of support - moral, material, arms supplies, through propaganda, shelter, etc. In this connection, the sides called for early completion of discussions under UN auspices, of the draft Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism and the Convention of the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism. Adoption of these Conventions would greatly contribute to the strengthening of the international legal basis for effectively combating the menace of global terrorism.

During discussions on the situation in South Asia, the Russian side reiterated its strong condemnation of continued acts of cross-border terrorism against India, including the terrorist attack on Indian Parliament on 13th December 2001. Russia expressed its understanding and support regarding India's justified demands that these activities from Pakistan and territory controlled by it completely.

The two Ministers also noted the statement made by Pakistani President, Pervez Musharraf, on 12th January 2002 and Pakistan's recently declared commitment against terrorism. However, this commitment can only be judged by the concrete action it takes on the ground. In this context, the sides emphasized the need for Pakistan to cooperate in stopping infiltration of terrorists into India, across the international boundary and the Line of Control, and ending the continued terrorist violence in the Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir, as also in other parts of India. The sides noted that sustained and irreversible steps in this direction will create a conducive environment for the resumption of dialogue between India and Pakistan in accordance with the Simla Agreement and the Lahore Declaration.

Jaswant Singh
Minister of External Affairs Government of the Republic of India

Igor S. Ivanov
Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

February 4, 2002

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