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Politics mars System needs!

Kathmandu: Anticipation of the shape of things to come is rife. The consensus is that things will not and should not continue as they are. Speculation is that the winter session of parliament will cripple itself. The congress, for one, is precariously poised between supporters of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and Chairman Girija Prasad Koirala. When this balance will be tipped in favor or against one or the other is an uncertainty contributing to the speculations.

Girija Prasad Koirala's maneuver to allow the RPP's Chairman Surya Bahadur Thapa to sell his "Broader Democratic Alliance" is not impotent. It has allowed the Sadbhavana and the UML to sit together with the RPP and the congress to deliberate over the possibility of an all party government with the emergency as a ruse. While this strategy has kept Koirala away from officially endorsing a plan of action to topple a congress government, it has allowed him stake to lead such a possible option on the grounds of his position in the largest parliamentary party.

Criticisms on the performance of Sher Bahadur Deuba government thus have been taken to a new pitch. The UML, for example, is making it clear that it will only support the government on the emergency move if its preconditions are met. The RPP and the Sadbhavana appear inclined to Okay the emergency but to do so on the understanding of a change in government favoring the mysterious democratic alliance.

The crisis in the making is precipitated by Deuba's continuing majority in the parliamentary party. What happens in his 41 member Cabinet evidently thus is to decide his longevity. In case he does perform, his opponents are likely to begin a series of disturbances that will make it seem that it is Sher Bahadur Deuba versus the rest this winter session.

Deuba's uncertainty was very well reflected in his non-committal answers at a press meet, Sunday afternoon, designed to reflect his confidence. It is clear that he expects the winter session to be no cruise. It is clear also that the challenge this time is serious and the challenge is from his own camp.

It is this that makes environment pregnant with expectations. With the Maoists sensing the situation rightly and stepping up its armed revolt, the need for a united and determined response is more than obvious. Going by the various political standpoints of the parliamentary parties the response is neither united nor determined.

One chink in Deuba's armor of 41 is likely to be his doom. There is no assurance that the option will do what Deuba is doing. Clearly, the systemic response to the accumulating crises has been merely politics and more politics. This is not what the public have been asking for. It is this that has put the system at stake.

Congress' continued infighting benefits UML

Kathmandu: The President of the Nepali Congress Girija Prasad Koirala is fully aware of the fact that should the country be thrown to the polls deliberate or otherwise, his party would lose. Not only Koirala but his cohorts, pseudo and real, too perhaps understand this hard reality.

However, what puzzles the Kathmandu intellectuals is that why the congress president and his followers were hell bent on pressing the nation to go for yet another polls by dislodging the incumbent Deuba regime with an all-party government that would later conduct the said elections?

We have some analysis. For president Koirala any system or for that matter any government will be suitable to this country other than his political rival's that is the government led by Sher Bahadur Deuba. This is only but natural as those who have understood the functioning style of president Koirala opine that the latter could go to any extent and length in destabilizing any regime that is not headed by himself.

"Koirala is suffering from a complex: it could be both, superiority or even inferiority", said a congressite who prefers to distance himself with the current "power-game" in the congress paraphernalia.

In support of his argument, the same source wishes to remind that it was Koirala who remained instrumental in bringing about an untimely collapse of Prime Minister Deuba's first tenure in government some five years back.

President Koirala's political maneuverings and lust for power must be admired for it was he who forced the Bhattarai government some two and a half years ago to resign and a weeping Bhattarai had to gulp the bitter pill of disrespect exhibited so nakedly by his own long time party associate, added the congressite.

This time again, continued the congressite, Koirala is hell bent on destabilizing Deuba regime and in the process is seeking the support from "like-minded political parties".

The like minded parties on whom Koirala's plan is banking entirely were primarily the UML, the RPP and the NSP-Sadbhavana.

According to yet another insider of the congress who is close to the Koirala faction but yet prefers to remain neutral in the current scheme of things in the congress camp says that the "'sudden" honey-moon seen in between these parties is mysterious.

He senses some foul game being played against Sher Bahadur Deuba. Going a bit more further he suspects some grand design initiated by some "extraneous" forces in order to bring about a total collapse of the Deuba regime.

However, which could be those forces backing the recent hob-nobbing of the said four forces, including a section of the congress itself, the source did not divulge. But yet what could be grasped from his gloomy face was that perhaps some powerful forces were dead against Deuba having a Pro-West inclination.

Nevertheless, the UML design in supporting the Koirala faction of the congress is not difficult to understand. IN essence, the UML wishes a badly battered congress in order to face the impending elections. And this the UML as a party is doing quite tactfully. The UML as a political party has reasons to rejoice from the never ending congress power tussle.

The UML is supporting Koirala at a time when the party led by the latter remains totally divided and that the former is all set to declare its reunification with the ML.

In politics such games are always played. This is not unusual. However, what is unusual is that an already lean and thin congress is seeking the support of its arch political rival in unseating its own party government.

Coming to the RPPs present stance what could be said is that the party wishes to cash in on its close proximity both with the congress and the UML. However, the fact is that the RPP chairman, Surya Bahadur Thapa once wins the hearts of both the leaders ( heart winning process is apparently in progress) belonging to the congress and the UML will in all likelihood initiate a fresh bargain with the incumbent Prime Minister and should the latter honor his "demands" positively could abandon his former friends easily.

It is said in Nepal that one Surya Bahadur Thapa equals to several Koirala's and a dozen of Madhavs and countless of the Deubas. He is shrewd politician indeed. However, Mr. Thapa too is talked to be very close to certain powerful camps. Whether the camp existed in Nepal or in foreign land, no body knows.

Looking at the Sadbhavana's stance taken of late what could be predicted is that this party wishes to project itself as one of the key player in today's Nepali politics. However, this party could be brought to one's side easily if one of its parliamentary party members were included in the cabinet. If Koirala assures this, the NSP is with them. If Deuba is ready to extend the same offer, the NSP is with him. However, the NSP becomes unpredictable as and when there is a talk of vote of no-confidence. It has a track record of remaining instrumental in bringing about an abrupt collapse of its own party-coalition government in lieu of better and bigger sweets.

Political analysts conclude that if by chance the present status quo is changed, the change will have a very bad impact on the overall health of the congress party. Its natural corollary predictably would be the emergence of a very powerful UML. The politics that would follow then could easily be predicted.

Amendment in the 1990 constitution; but why?

Kathmandu: The country is in a state of emergency. The people expect an early lifting up of the present uncomfortable situation with the imposition of the state of emergency.

World's powerful leaders too have been suggesting the Nepali establishment to bring about an end to this state.

The establishment led by Deuba forcefully opines that the state of emergency must continue for yet another round in order to complete the "unfinished jobs" which being the disarming of the insurgents.

The main opposition, the UML, and the real opposition, the Koirala faction of the congress, are hell bent on pressing the government either to heed to their demands or face consequences.

The smaller parties wish the state of emergency continued for declared reasons.

In their fresh bid to pressurize the Deuba establishment the four party democratic alliance including the RPP, the UML, the NSP and a very powerful section of the ruling party as well, have clearly hinted that they might go their way at time of the approval of the state of emergency in the parliament should Prime Minister Deuba remained averse to some of the demands collectively spelt out by the alliance in the recent days.

A hard pressed Deuba perhaps has no other alternatives left other than to heed to their demands. Deuba in the process too has hinted that if all party agreed then he could even proceed in the way of effecting certain changes in the present constitution. However, he wishes to do this as per the wishes of the opposition parties after securing the approval of the state of emergency in the ongoing session of the parliament.

The four party have concluded at a recently held meeting that certain sweeping reforms in practically all the sectors of the country had become a must to do away with the current malaise that have gripped the nation over the years. They have also agreed that certain changes in the constitution have got to be effected in order to give a positive message to the people at the grassroots.

Unconfirmed reports have it that a four party draft-committee is already in place to chalk out the procedures to be submitted to the government on how to bring those collective demands into practice.

To recall, the congress prime minister Koirala prior to leaving the office some seven months back had proposed a 14 point proposal in order to give a face lift to the nation. Later the UML pushed its 22 point programs to be followed by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's 8 point proposal.

The total comes out to be 44 point proposal and that too all in the name of the common people.

Notably, the men pushing these proposals had all in the past chaired the governments' formed at different intervals of the country in the not so distant past. Then why are these proposals? To embarrass the incumbent government or a genuine one?

Question could be asked what the hell the people in the villages will do with the bundles of proposals when they know the "luminaries" forwarding the proposals.

If the political leaders were really serious in mitigating the people's problems, which in effect is going up and up in geometrical progression, they could have formulated a common strategy to be brought into effect for the people and not the separate set of bundles?

The question of effecting certain people-friendly amendments in the 1990 constitution, question could be asked as to who would and could decide on this count?

The leaders must understand that the 1990 constitution was framed by the set of the "luminaries" who claimed that they remained instrumental in overthrowing the erstwhile regime. Two leaders from the UML remain intact in the party from the set which drafted the constitution. Did not they then thought of making the constitution more progressive than they claim to be now?

By and large, the people neither framed the constitution then nor would be allowed now if that does happen.

Who will benefit from such a change in the constitution? The people, perhaps not. The leaders, perhaps yes because it is this set which never loses!

Prior to arriving at a decision regarding the amendment in the constitution as is being discussed by the UML and its cohorts, the establishment would do well if they bring it into public debate or else the sleeping and lazy population will come to the streets.

UML-ML reunification to change the internal equation?

Kathmandu: The stage is set for the long awaited and much publicized UML-ML reunification.

In a day or two from hence the entire procedures leading to the reunification would be complete.

The reunification process would have already materialized but "unfortunately" the ML chairman Ms. Sahana Pradhan is not in the country. The rest of the nitty-gritty's apparently have already been finalized, say UML sources.

Albeit the reunification in between the UML and the ML will immensely benefit the reunified party, however, one need to analyze the impact of this reunion in the existing various factions inside the UML.

Clearly, if one analysed that the reunification process would have little impact on the overall country's existing politics then he could be adjudged a fool. It has not for nothing been reunified. It has a cause indeed.

Firstly, the impending reunification would badly hit the congress for declared reasons. A reunified UML will leave no stone unturned to come out with flying colors at the much talked about next general elections.

Secondly, Madhav Nepal or for that matter Bam Dev Gautam were not fools either in having mentally prepared their respective cadres in their respective camps for reunification.

If Madhav Nepal strongly favored the entrance of Bam Dev and his band into the UML mainstream it was simply because the former wished to present the latter as a political "deterrent" to his political rival, Comrade K.P.Woli. It is here that Madhav Nepal outmanuevered his nearest and dearest rival K.P.Woli and the tragedy had been that comrade Woli could do little in derailing the whole process leading to this "dangerous" unification.

Not very surprisingly, Bam Dev split from the mainstream UML because of the excessive highhandedness of comrade Woli which he exhibited at time of the Mahakali treaty ratification in the parliament some where around 1996 or 1997.

This means that firebrand Bam Dev Gautam is entering the UML to the utter displeasure of comrade Woli. It again means that henceforth Madhav Nepal's say in the reunified UML will automatically increase again to the utter discomfiture of comrade Woli. This finally means that the honey-moon of the Madhav-Bam Dev duo after the reunion of the party could sow the seeds of yet another split(?) or if not that will facilitate interested UMLites to attach themselves in various groups and factions.

How comrade Woli takes up this formidable challenge will have to be seriously watched. He could reconcile to the new reality as well. This will again have to be watched.

Now coming back to Bam Dev's sudden decision to join the mother party what could be told of him is that a seasoned politician of Bam Dev Gautam's stature would have not decided to do so unless he could see prospects in the newly unified party.

What prospects did he see then?

Presumably, Bam Dev's desire could be to bring the unified party in his grip. This he could only do when strongman Madhav Nepal exhibits his desire to support him. It is here that Bam Dev could play double. If he gets Madhav's support he would align himself with the former and act like a deterrent to Madhav Nepal's arch-rival or else could switch his allegiance to the other cam. Both the options will remain perhaps open for Gautam.

Later, Bamdev Gautam would wish to elevate the ranks of present Secretary-General Madhav Nepal to the vacant post of the party's chairman. This means that Bam Dev would very much wish to see himself in the present day Madhav Nepal's post.

IN communist systems, the post of the GS is considered more powerful than the chairman.

It is at this stage that Bam Dev Gautam will take a heavy sigh of relief. His ultimate goal perhaps.

However, how others, read the affected ones like Woli and his followers will react to Bam Dev's new-found love for the GS post will have to be carefully studied.

Latest report has it that those who will continue to keep the flag of the ML intact were comrade Mainali, Rishi Kattel, Tanka Karki and Jit Bir Lama.

Congress might plunge into a deep crisis!

Kathmandu: Last week, this day, the congress party entertained the whole nation.

A sort of war of words prevailed for quite some time when the congress' central committee was in session at its Teku office.

Understandably, the dual was in between the supporters of president Koirala and the rest. Most vocal among the many in the crowd who at the moment oppose the sitting Prime Minister Deuba was the known lady, Ms. Shailaja Acharya, who apparently feels more elated in denouncing her political rival-Sher Bahadur Deuba.

Ms. Acharya went to the extent that day and even could allege that Deuba –Sushil Koirala combine were framing a conspiracy to do away with the system now in place.

This allegation came as a bolt from the blue to a practically annoyed Sushil Koirala, the nearest and dearest relative of president Koirala who by all accounts serves the interest of president Koirala. He however, sought proofs of the allegations labeled upon him by Ms. Acharya. A totally disturbed Ms. Acharya told the gathering that time permitting she would disclose the details of their combined design.

In the same vein, Ms. Acharya bluntly told Prime Minister Deuba to resign as he was too weak to steer the nation and that he be replaced by either president Koirala or the thespian Bhattarai.

There has been a general consensus among the Nepali intellectuals that as and when Ms. Acharya speaks or blasts or makes scathing comments against her colleague(s), she speaks the minds of her relative-senior Koirala.

The war of words in essence were the outcome of the report finalized by Sushil Koirala and submitted for the perusal of the CC members on that day. Understandably, the report prepared by junior Koirala had no good words for prime minister Deuba wherein it has been alleged that the government led by Deuba did little in improving the situation in the country despite the fact that the army had been on the move to contain the threats of the Maoists insurgents. In all, the report had only bad words for Deuba and his lame-duck government.

In continuation of the same, the CC meeting of the congress held Monday saw president Koirala's known supporters, for example, Sunil Bhandari, Laxman Ghimire, Govind Raj joshi, Bal Dev Majgaiyan, Ms. Acharya and Dr. Ram Baran Yadav.

Now the question arises as to what would happen to the fate of the congress if they prolong their internal rivalry for the sake of bouncing back to power at time when the UML is gaining strength? More so, some twelve smaller parties who were not represented in the parliament have already begun initiatives to form a joint Nationalists Front to be led by Rajeshwar Devkota. Reports have it that the lone crusader of the ML, C.P.Mainali will be the General Secretary of the said Front which is still in its embryonic stage.

Those likely to join this front were Hariyali party, NCP-Marxists, Socialists and NCP(United).

Unconfirmed reports have it that president Koirala supporters have already collected 53 signatures which could be used against Deuba should he exceed his party functions.

All in all, the congress party's central committee has to decide whether it wishes to retain its majority status or step down to the present day UML position albeit after the elections!

Thai delegation visits Kathmandu; returns

Kathmandu: A forty member delegation from the friendly country of Thailand visited Nepal from 7-to 9 February.

The delegation from Thailand comprised of senior editors, reporters and men from various internationally acclaimed media advertising agencies.

"The purpose of our visit to Nepal is guided by the desire to see the country for themselves. We have come here to exchange views with like minded media men and advertising agencies of this country so that we can benefit from each other's gained expertise", said the leader of the Thai delegation Mr. Kiatichai Pongpanich-the senior editor at the Khao Sod daily.

Similarly, Narong Joonjuasuparerk, the vice chairman at the Matichon Public co. limited opined that such trips helps one understand better the culture and tradition of the other country.

Offering his remarks, The Thailand Ambassador to the Nepali Court, H.E. Powthip Vanachanda said that the present visit of the Thai delegation here was an "incentive trip" to Nepal.

"They have come only to see Kathmandu and its surroundings this time. In the future such similar trips will be made in order to allow the Nepali people to understand the Thai culture and tradition which is very much similar to yours", added Ambassador.

Expressing his profound happiness over the materialization of this trip from Thailand, the Thai diplomat said that "at least the contact is there now"'.

Such trips do contribute in enhancing people to people contact", concluded the Ambassador.

OPENING OF SRI LANKA INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Foreign Minister Tyronne Fernando declared open the Sri Lanka Institute of International Relations recently. The institute will function as a focal point for research and to serve as a forum to promote greater awareness and understanding of International issues. The new Institute will provide analytical information on political and economic changes taking place internationally. They will be available on the basis of three-hourly reports to Ministries, Policy Planners, Researchers, Universities and Leading Establishments.

The institute will be equipped with a monitoring centre comprising of a library, auditorium and an electronic T.V. unit linking eight leading T.V. Channels.

The Institute is located at No.24, Horton Place, Colombo 07.

Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Ivanov Speaks to US Secretary of State Colin Powell

On February 7 a telephone conversation took place between Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Igor Ivanov and United States Secretary of State Colin Powell.

They considered questions relating to the preparations for the official visit of the US President to Russia, scheduled for the first half of 2002. In this connection both sides stressed the importance of working out by the upcoming Russian-US summit a legally binding agreement on a radical reduction of the two countries' strategic offensive arms.

Ivanov and Powell discussed also a number of international and regional problems. They concurred on the need, proceeding from the accords of the Russian and US Presidents, to step up work on improving the mechanisms of the Russia-NATO relationship, including in the Council at 20 format. The certain lessening of tension in relations between India and Pakistan was noted, even though the situation requires persistent international efforts to normalize it as before. The necessity of taking energetic and coordinated measures aimed at restoring the economy of Afghanistan was underscored.

Some other questions were also considered that are of mutual interest, including the situation in the Middle East.

This has been stated in a press release issued by the Embassy of Russian Federation in Kathmandu, dated February 8, 2002

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