I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
High time for a major change?

Kathmandu: Between now and next week the people expect a decisive change in the course of Nepali politics. This, in no sense means that the shenanigans in the parliament will stop the parliamentary parties from haggling over seats in government. This does mean that the accumulating series of crises be for once defused decisively in order that the tasks of nation building and reconstruction be allowed the country. Whether Sher Bahadur Deuba stays in government or not; whether Girija Prasad Koirala succeeds in toppling him; whether the UML's attempts at a share in government succeeds; whether the RPP, the Sadbhavana and the NMKP (Rohit party) are represented; all these supposed issues become irrelevant to the public eye amidst the widespread recognition that these monopolists of political organizations in the country no longer represent the public conclusion that they have no solution to the current problems.

As if totally unaware of this sterling fact the party leadership appear to have their own agenda for the public. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba once his parliamentary party support for the emergency about which his own party resolves to condemn his management, chairman Girija Prasad Koirala allows other members of the opposition to tout the all party "democratic alliance" with the hope of emerging on top as the leader of the largest parliamentary party. The UML sets its conditions for support with an agenda on constitutional reforms that, not surprisingly, insists on its representation in government to continue the election process. The RPP makes sure that its all party government is backed by both the congress and the UML. And the other minor parties in parliament revel on the chances of their inclusion in the government which ever way the course goes in the ongoing parliament.

None of these antics appear as real solutions to a public aware that they don't reflect the actual weakness of the system wherein the political parties themselves have become actual aberrations. The public at large are aware that it is the conduct of these very political parties-their tampering with the concept of the independence of the civil and the security services, their monopolization of national resources, their flagrant distortions of the election process and their strong arm tactic in the organization process-that has contributed to the creation of the Maoists option which is opting for the same strategies as the parliamentary parties at the public level.

The public are aware, for example, that the massive movement of insurgents in Achham could not have gone un-traced had Nepal's intelligence organizations not been as subverted politically as it has become at present., The people at Achham themselves were never blind to the fact that Nepal's over stretched army could not afford more than a Company of soldiers in their district-headquarters because of the misplaced security priority of government over the years. At least the public are aware that given army backing the demoralized police have begun to fight back heroically as their army brethren.

Achham now, what next?

What adds to the anticipation is that the options, the political parties provide in parliament and outside are so bereft of reality. One example is the question of constitutional reforms at this particular juncture. No proposal gives the political parties adequate checks when the public have concluded that it is they who have derailed democracy. No proposal accepts the facts indeed that democracy has been derailed in the country.

Deuba should resign; Deuba should not resign?

Kathmandu: Analyzing the number of deaths of the civilians and those of the security personnel in Achham district last Saturday late evening even an insane person now could conclude that the Maoists insurgents used the highly sophisticated fire-arms and ammunitions which they looted from their first attack on the Military post in Dang just few days ahead of the imposition of the state of emergency in the nation.

If it is so then what also could be concluded is that the insurgents still have in their possession plenty of lethal weapons which they might use again in order to terrorize the population plus the establishment as well.

It would be in the fitness of the things that the government remains alert henceforth so that the ghastly incident of Achham is not repeated in the future. How the government does it is perhaps a job that should be entirely left to the perusal of the establishment and the security machinery.

Two sets of theories at the moment prevail among the intellectuals here regarding the Achham incident.

The first set alleges that the government was best informed in advance by its intelligence services and the people's representatives of that area that the insurgents were all set to target Achham in the near future and hence had demanded from the government the deployment of extra forces to meet the impending challenge from the Maoists.

The second set albeit claims that it was not only Achham district that was prone to the Maoists attack, but most of the areas falling in the western region of the country too were prone to such attacks from the Maoists quarters and in the process had approached the Prime Minister for additional support.

Analyzing the allegation made by the first set of theory and considering the gravity contained therein what could be bluntly said that when the nation's Prime Minister had been informed in advance of such a probable attack in Achham, the latter should have acted fast as per the reports submitted to him by the concerned representatives and the men from the intelligence.

It is here that the Prime Minister failed miserably. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba can't escape his responsibilities and is thus answerable to the allegations made against him.

Similarly, the presumption of the second set of the theorists that additional support were needed for practically all the districts too appears logical in the sense that the Maoists have been attacking various places in various districts thus boggling the minds of the men involved in the maintenance of the security of the country. This means that the establishment can't satisfy the needs of practically each and every district of the nation because of the meager strength of its security personnel. This finally means that if the government wished to act fast and satisfy the needs of the men in the districts, it should have to swell the strength of its security personnel by recruiting more men into the security system which again means that some added-extra money has got to be allocated to the already hard pressed national exchequer.

Interpretations could vary but then the hard fact is that the manner the Maoists apparently celebrated their birth anniversary last week by attacking Achham was quite frightening and disturbing as well. The last attack in Achham must have emboldened the insurgents and hence could be guessed in advance that they must have been thinking of yet another massive attack(s) in some other places of the Achham dimension and tragedy.

It is hereby suggested to the government and the brave soldiers of the nation to remain alert. It should also be the duty of the political parties and the civilians of the nation to boost the morale of the soldiers and the men in the police force so that they could be able to provide the needed security to the national population.

Tactful UML twists government arms

Kathmandu: President Girija Prasad Koirala has succeeded in humiliating his own party-Prime Minister through the "use" of the main Opposition-the UML leaders.

The Achham incident came as a bolt from the blue to both the Opposition and Girija section of the congress who both Monday evening scathingly criticized Deuba government in having not been able to justify the imposition of the state of emergency and thus hinted that the much sought approval of the emergency in the parliament could be a remote thing for Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba.

Though President Koirala bagged some success in disturbing the peace of mind of his political detractor this round, however, at what price the UML wished to extend its support to Koirala will have to be carefully watched.

UML as a shrewd political party and that too at a time when it has doubled its strength numerically after its reunification with the ML would have not for nothing supported President Koirala. Notably, the UML has been of some tangible support to Deuba's declared detractor at a time when the entire congress is badly divided wherein one faction wishes to witness the miserable downfall of the other. But in the process, say intellectuals, the congress has become blind of the fact that each such moves were weakening the party from within.

The UML has reasons to support president Koirala for it wishes to bag gains from Koirala-Deuba perennial conflict. It has supported Koirala much the same way it had, to recall, supported the Bhattarai-Deuba combine at time of the 19 session of the parliament.

What a cruel joke indeed the UML party which brought heaven down earth during the 19 session of the parliament and sought the resignation of the then prime minister Koirala is at the moment hell bent on bringing down the Deuba set. But why?

The answer is very simple.

In bringing down Koirala from the Prime Ministerial chair the UML had apparently wished to extract much gains from a lame-duck prime minister Deuba and hence opted to destabilize Koirala only to be replaced by Deuba. However, things took different turn and the new Premier kept himself busy in negotiating with the insurgents and later how the things took shape is not unknown to us all. In the process, the UML could not and did not extract any tangible benefit from the lame-duck Deuba set-up.

This unfulfilled desire perhaps is prompting the UML to push Koirala to the forefront with a hope that Deuba's ouster would mean immense benefit for them.

But that is not all. In the process of supporting president Koirala, the UML has managed the premature death of president Koirala mysterious "broader democratic alliance" plan. No body even in the congress talks of Koirala's BDA any more.

This means that the IML managed the killing of Koirala's BDA plan only to be replaced by their own set of one point agenda and that being the amendment in the constitution.

Now a reunified UML will naturally double its strength in voicing its agenda of constitutional reforms. It is not very surprising therefore that the UML has made it conditional to the government that unless the Deuba arrangement gives a nod to their agenda, the approval of the state of emergency in the parliament as wished by Sher Bahadur Deuba will not materialize.

Deuba needs the UML support badly. It is here that the UML is twisting the arms of the Deuba government.

Further, Deuba not only needs the approval on that count but also wishes to extend the state of emergency for yet another round for which again the UML support is necessary. Exploiting the awkward situation wherein the country's Prime Minister is in at the moment, his in-party detractors too have hinted their party prime minister to resign.

The lack of UML support to the approval process would mean the end of the state of emergency. This should again mean that the mobilized armymen will have to return to their barracks.

But then an already "wounded Nepali army" which lost its scores of cadres in Dang, Solu and lately in Achham will find it very hard to return to barracks without taking revenge of the killings of their brethren. This has been slightly hinted by the army in a statement wherein they say that they will accomplish their jobs of disarming the "terrorists" with full energy and vigor. Does this mean that they would defy government instructions to return to the barracks if the government failed in securing the approval of the state of emergency from the parliament? Perhaps not! The army will abide by the government instructions indeed.

By and large what could be concluded is that the Maoists insurgents amply exploited from the never ending and the continued internal rivalries in the congress camp and also benefited from the opposition's twisting of the arms of the government and that to at this critical juncture. The insurgents could have also concluded that when the men manning the system were themselves at their daggers drawn, it would be opportune to hit the security forces which is what they did.

The tragedy is that the UML and a section of the congress men apparently been giving the impression that it was Deuba who told the Maoists to hit the military men in Achham.

The fact is that with Deuba in the chair or some one else, the Maoists will continue to hit sporadically should the political leaders continue to remain divided on matters of national importance.

For the lay men, Deuba or Koirala or even S.B.Thapa or at best Madhav Nepal makes little difference because the lay men have already witnessed their "effective administration " in the past.

This notwithstanding, the local intellectuals wish to suggest the establishment to initiate dialogues with the insurgents as the resumption of the dialogue process in between the two warring rivals would save so many precious lives.

Mother Nepal can't afford to see so many of her children dying for nothing.

Underneath the King's D-day message !

Kathmandu: King Gyanendra in a message to the nation on the occasion of the National Democracy Day has wished to send signals to all possible quarters of the society including the men handling the system at the moment.

The message of the constitutional monarch is meaningful in the sense that it has tried to cash in on the people's concerns and grievances which were yet to be addressed by the successive governments formed specially after the momentous political changes of 1990.

The message if analyzed properly hints at the fact that the King firstly wished that "commitment" towards the system should have to be shared by all. This apparently means that it should not only be the monarch who should remain totally committed to the system but the political parties too must follow suit.

More meaning loaded is the expression of King Gyanendra is: " Apprehensions are being raised from all quarters about the maintenance of peace and security, good governance and political stability as well as the need to curb economic anomalies and corruption. Sensitizing ourselves to this anguish of the people, let us now be more accountable towards them in consolidating democracy."'.

In saying so the King indirectly hints the population that he is well abreast with the state of governance, deteriorating peace in the country and more so he knows that corruption has created havoc in the nation.

In ventilating these perhaps the King wishes to pass on signals to the government that the latter must heed to the concerns of the people and do the needful so that the nations gets rid of the above mentioned anomalies. In the same vein the King concludes that unless these said anomalies vanish from the country, the consolidation process of the democratic system will remain elusive. The King further hints that accountability factor was most important in a democratic system.

Let us see what the King says in the message next and try to analyse: "During this vulnerable state, shortcomings in the political and administrative sectors could lead to the further deterioration in the situation".

In saying so the constitutional monarch apparently wishes to hint the men in the power corridors that since the country was in a fragile state, the leaders in the government or for that matter in the political sector must remain vigilant in ascertaining the shortcomings existing in the political and the administrative sector and that any negligence exhibited in these regards would be counterproductive.

The King warns by saying that failing to do so "could lead to the further deterioration in the situation".

Regarding the current state of the nation, the King politely urges all concerned to find out the causes that caused this plight to erupt in the nation.

The message though does not talk straight about the emergence of the Maoists imbroglio, however, it becomes pretty clear is that the monarch is hinting at the root causes which led this movement to acquire this dimension. The message indirectly hints that His Majesty is of the opinion that the emergence of the Maoists insurgency in the country should have some causes behind or else it could not have existed.

Now it is up to the men in the government to identify the causes that caused for the emergence of the Maoists issue.

Summing up, King Gyanendra's message is loaded with meaning. At least what becomes pretty clear is that the monarch is "well informed" and is keenly watching the unfolding events in the country. At least, as the guardian of the nation the constitutional monarch has spoken his mind extensively this time.

It remains to be seen how the men handling the system and government take up the King's subtle message contained therein in the democracy day message.

A restive UML eyeing the next general elections

Kathmandu: It is clear by now that the reunified UML is eyeing the next general elections and is pressing the establishment to initiate actions aimed at constitutional reforms.

More over, the UML wishes to be a partner in an all-party government that would presumably conduct the elections.

The UML knows it better that this could be the best time to press the government for certain constitutional reforms in order to simplify certain election procedures so that they could easily outmaneuver the badly divided ruling party.

As predicted by many intellectuals, should the nation go to the polls, the UML, better say the reunified UML will emerge with flying colors and the present day ruling party would bring down itself to the current UML position.

The UML's current constitutional reform agenda and its longing to share seats in an all party government are all aimed at capturing the seat of the next government after the elections.

By advocating certain amendments in the constitution, the UML party wishes to send sweet signals to its voters back in the districts that they were coming to them with so many lucrative gifts at times of the elections. In doing so they benefit both ways: if the government effects certain changes in the constitution they would present themselves as "agents of change". If the government rejects their agenda for constitutional reforms, they would instantly dub the ruling congress as "foes of change". In the process they would seek the people's favor in defeating the foes of change that is the congress.

If they benefit doubly from this superb scheme, the congress is the declared loser indeed.

The congress at the moment is the victim of its own leaders.

More so , there has been a general feeling in and among the majority of the national population that it is the congress and the congress only which is the mother of all evils that have gripped the country in the recent years. Whether the congress is the source of all the evils or not, but then the fact is that they have not been able as yet to clarify it were simply wild allegation engineered by its opposition and "reactionary forces".

Intellectuals wonder what could be the main slogan of the congress this time of the elections?

To recall, the people sided with the congress many a times in the past and brought the party to power several times. But then the party's infighting never ended.

By and large, the people are fed-up with congress infighting and its rule.

Perhaps it is this subtle change seen in the eyes and the minds of the majority of the population against the congress and its rule, that guided basically the reunification of the UML with the ML at this critical juncture.

Minister Gupta inaugurates FNJ's new building

Kathmandu: The Federation of the Nepalese Journalists-the central umbrella organization of the Nepalese journalists, is now equipped with its own building.

Minister of Communication, Jaya Prakash Prasad Gupta Tuesday morning inaugurated the FNJ building located inside the premises of the "Media Village" in Sina Mangal, Kathmandu.

Speaking on the occasion, minister Gupta lauded the Himalayan efforts of the incumbent executive committee of the FNJ that a house for the journalists could be erected and that too in no time.

Minister Gupta also assured the mediamen that he would be of further support to the cause of the furtherance of Nepalese journalism in the country.

A host of senior journalists on the occasion congratulated the FNJ-team involved in the construction of the new building. Others who spoke on the occasion were the GS and the Treasurer of the FNJ.

The FNJ president, Mr. Suresh Acharya thanked the minister for his support extended for the construction of the FNJ building.

The inauguration of the FNJ building coincided with the democracy day.

Russian-American Consultations on the Balkans

Kathmandu: On February 12-13, bilateral consultations on Balkan themes took place in Washington, with on the Russian side Vladimir Chizov, the special Foreign Minister Balkans envoy and director of the MFA Department of All-European Cooperation, and on the American, Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones, Special Assistant to the President Gregory Schulte, and Ambassador at Large James Holmes in attendance.

The sides examined in detail a broad range of problems relating to the situation in the region, which, in their mutual conviction, remains very complicated and in some aspects explosive.

In this context they paid special attention to such destabilizing facts as the unceasing manifestations of extremism in Kosovo and a number of other crisis points in the region.

They discussed practical aspects of cooperation in the framework of the international military and civilian presences in the Balkans, and counteraction against the threat of international terrorism.

They noted the usefulness of coordinated efforts for the consolidation of stability and support of lawful governments of Balkan states.

They stated the importance of such multilateral coordinating structures as the Contact Group, G8 and the Steering Board of the Council for the Implementation of the Peace Agreement on Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The attention of the American side was drawn to Russia's initiative concerning the convocation of a Balkan summit with international participation for the elaboration of legally binding agreements between the states of the region.

The sides have agreed to continue the dialogue on this theme on a regular basis.

This has been stated in a press release issued by the embassy of the Russian Federation in Kathmandu dated February 14, 2002.

Tibetan prisoners in Nepal seek Royal Pardon

Eleven Tibetans serving ten-year prison sentences in Nepal for failing to possess relevant travel or residency documents have requested a pardon from the Nepalese King prior to Nepal’s "Democracy Day" on 19 February, a date when the King traditionally pardons certain prisoners. The long prison sentences have caused concern among the Tibetan community in Nepal because most Tibetans passing through Nepal or resident in the kingdom lack the official papers that were required by the Nepalese immigration authorities in the case of the 11 Tibetan prisoners.

Two of the Tibetans, monks who had studied at Sera monastery in south India, were arrested on 20 August last year in a restaurant in Bouddhanath, Kathmandu, for failing to possess appropriate residence documents. Two days later, eight Tibetans travelling back to Tibet via Nepal were arrested by Nepalese security personnel at Thankot checkpoint at the edge of the Kathmandu valley. The eight Tibetans were fined a total of $1624 each (representing the visa fee, late visa fee and a further penalty and calculated on the number of days they had been in the country without a valid tourist visa) and the two monks were fined a total of $2733 each (visa fee, late visa fee and further penalty), with failure to pay incurring a ten-year prison sentence. None of the ten Tibetans had the money to pay the fines and so were all imprisoned by the Nepalese Immigration department, operating under the Nepalese Home Ministry. The fines for the eight Tibetans were based on their illegal stay in Nepal following their entry into the country in January 2001. Their legal representatives have argued that while it was correct that they entered Nepal on this date, they only passed through Nepal on their way to India, before travelling back to Tibet via Nepal in August 2001. An 11th Tibetan, a monk who had been living in Nepal, has already served nearly two years in Bhatra prison in Kathmandu after he was arrested in June 2000 in the Solokhumbu area of Nepal for not possessing valid documents.

The majority of Tibetans entering Nepal do not have a Nepalese visa or any official travel documents. It has become increasingly difficult for Tibetans from central Tibet, particularly Lhasa, to obtain passports in recent years. There are procedures in place between the Nepalese authorities and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) for Tibetans who arrive in Nepal and pass through the country to go to India. However there are no agreed procedures for Tibetans returning to Tibet from India via Nepal. The representative for the UNHCR in Nepal, Michel Dupoizat, told TIN that in order to avoid other arrests of Tibetans in Nepal, efforts are currently being made to ensure that Tibetans coming from India will be able to safely cross Nepal on their way to Tibet in future.

Wangchug Tsering, Representative of the Dalai Lama in Kathmandu, told TIN that there had been a "positive response" from the Nepalese Home Ministry regarding the possibility of issuing some form of identity cards for Tibetans who want to return to Tibet from India via Nepal.

Nepal’s legislation on immigration does not make any specific provision for refugees. Both foreigners and asylum seekers arriving in Nepal are considered illegal immigrants if they fail to comply with Article 3 (1) of the Nepalese Immigration Act (1992), which states: "No foreigner is allowed to enter or stay in the Kingdom of Nepal without a visa".

According to sources in Kathmandu, the Nepalese authorities have increased the number of random checks on Tibetans for legal documents particularly in the Bouddhanath stupa area in Kathmandu, although this is likely to be linked to the current "state of emergency" which has been imposed by the government in order to counter the activities of Nepalese Maoist guerrilla forces. The representative of the Dalai Lama in Kathmandu, Wangchug Tsering, said: "The situation appears to be ever more fragile for Tibetans in Nepal."

A precedent was set for these latest arrests in late 2000 when a group of 19 Tibetans were detained when trying to cross the border from India into Nepal, in order to return to Tibet. If well-wishers had not paid the large fines handed down to the 18 Tibetan men and one woman they would have been liable to more than two years in prison (they served six months before the fines were paid).

The arrests in 2000 followed a review by the Nepalese government of the 1950 Border Treaty Act between Nepal and India after the hijacking by terrorists of an Indian Airlines flight from Kathmandu to Delhi in India in 1999. The Border Treaty Act provided free border access for Nepalese and Indian citizens travelling between the two countries, and the review of the Act has resulted in more stringent border controls on the India-Nepal border, which is likely to continue to affect increasing numbers of Tibetans travelling back to Tibet from India. The escape of the 17th Karmapa, Ugyen Trinley Dorje, through Nepalese territory in January 2000 was also a factor that led to increased pressure from China on Nepal, and intensified border controls between Nepal and India.

The eight young Tibetans in detention in Kathmandu are from the traditional Tibetan area of Amdo (now largely absorbed into the Chinese province of Qinghai). Six of them travelled to study in exile schools in India, and two went to India on pilgrimage. One of the Tibetans, a 22-year old Tibetan woman, is currently being cared for at the Tibetan Reception Centre due to her poor health.

When her condition stabilises she will be required to serve the remainder of her sentence in prison.
The seven other Tibetans and two monks, who are originally from Chamdo (Chinese: Changdu) are being held in Kathmandu’s central prison in Dilli Bazaar.

The Nepalese King traditionally grants pardons to certain prisoners on three key anniversary dates - Democracy Day on 19 February, Constitution Day (which usually falls in the first half of November depending on the Nepalese lunar calendar) and on his birthday, 7 July. The 11 Tibetans’ request for a Royal Pardon is supported by the office of the Dalai Lama in Kathmandu and the UNHCR, and the final decision will be taken by the Nepalese cabinet under the auspices of the King.

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