Indepth Analysis

What after SAARC?

Kathmandu: The SAARC Summit will inevitably postpone any further developments of the mounting crisis of the Nepalese politics. If any thing, security concerns and Summit meetings with the King will perhaps contribute to further developments. This is the first time that His Majesty King Gyanendra will be meeting with the Heads of State and governments. For a monarch who will not travel abroad until the year-long Palace mourning period is over, private meetings with the major actors of the South Asian region in circumstance such as these are surely to be deemed significant. In one sense this Eleventh SAARC Summit appears to have been made possible despite the tensions on grounds of Nepal being the host. The success lies here.

Outside SAARC however, the ball is still rolling in the congress. None less than strongman minister Khum Bahadur Khadka chose to pass the ball to the Girija camp by proposing that his party chairman drop his nominees in the congress central committee in order to reciprocate any move to trim the Cabinet. Deuba has very bluntly stated that the cabinet numbers are dictated by the real need to maintain a majority in the parliamentary party. It is unlikely that chairman Girija Prasad Koirala will oblige by reducing his stranglehold over the party central committee. A stalemate gain.

The more potent broadside to Deuba however, now emerges from the UMLs Madhav Nepal. He claims a share in government with constitutional reforms if need be, in order for any government to dissolve parliament and go to the polls. This is as close to Girija babu's all-party government as possible coming from the Opposition. And so Girija's national consensus scheme remains rolling.

Deuba has yet to tackle the all-party move successfully. The emergency makes the need for at least a two third parliamentary support necessary with the emergency running on its second month already Deuba's need to muster the number in parliament for next month is real. It is thus that Madhav Nepal's anticipation of the polls becomes potent. These developments suggest a mood for significant change next month. While the SAARC meetings can be contributory, the jostling in the political sector and the insurgency together make the possibilities real.

The "big-fight" in Nepali Congress is in full swing!

Kathmandu: The internal politics of the ruling Nepali congress is getting more and more complicated.

Issuing of statements by one leader only to be countered by yet another leader has become the order of the day.

This verbal war of words between the two camps in the congress albeit through the blatant use of the media has become a regular feature since president Koirala threw a new formulae through which he wished to form a joint democratic alliance in order to "save" the country from "unseen" and yet to be recognized political quarters.

President Koirala's detractors maintain that the formers' new idea were nothing but a ploy to have been engineered to bring about a collapse of the incumbent Deuba regime.

Common men give least significance to this fresh congress tussle because by now such events have become a common phenomenon in the congress.

However, the fact is that there is a "big-fight"' going on in the congress paraphernalia. Whether this is for making the country's politics better or the otherwise only the end results will demonstrate.

By now it has also become clear that Koirala's detractors too will not leave him unscathed which gets reflected from a fresh proposal that has emanated from Koirala's rival camp wherein they wish to throw the ball to the Koirala court for its perusal.

The second generation key congress leader minister Khum Bahadur Khadka the other day surprised many a brains when he indirectly hinted Koirala that if he really wished the prevalence of unity in and among the congress workers he had to accept some of the conditions.

" The size of the cabinet could be down-sized provided Koirala reciprocated the same by reducing the number of the members currently housed in the congress central committee", proposed minister Khadka.

Whether minister Khadka remained serious in his fresh proposal or threw just a rejoinder to president Koirala is yet to be substantiated. However, what could be guessed at this stage is that minister Khadka perhaps was speaking on "behalf" of Prime Minister Deuba-the declared archrival of President Koirala. However, if one were to recall minister Khadka's past, it becomes pretty difficult to guess on whose behalf he really floated this new but yet daring idea.

Deliberate or other wise, Khadka's proposal did invite scathing criticism from the other quarter. Deuba's rival quarter in its fresh utterances have summarily said that the current cabinet some "rotten eggs" and hence they be summarily sacked from the present cabinet in order to help save the down going prestige of the Nepali congress as a party.

However, who the rotten eggs were in the cabinet under Deuba at the moment, the other camp has not divulged.

Two things come to our mind after analyzing the two different statements that have emanated from two different camps in the congress.

Firstly, when Khadka says that the size of the cabinet could be brought down provided the party's CC is also trimmed means that the men in the cabinet now conclude that the party's CC is completely under the grip of President Koirala. This concurrently means that they wish Koirala's grip from the party's CC to vanish in the thin air.

Secondly, when the Koirala camp alleges that the cabinet houses some rotten eggs, then there could be some one in the cabinet whom the Koirala camp considers really a rotten and stinking egg. This should also mean that because of the presence of such rotten eggs in the cabinet the party was finding it difficult to gain its prior image.

Interestingly enough, Deuba camp too concludes that the men in the party's CC were all the "yes-men" of president Koirala who were less competent and possessed dubious characters at time of theirs being in the government under Koirala.

Allegations galore indeed.

The fact is that neither Koirala will sack his yes-men from the current party central committee, nor Deuba will dare to weaken himself in the parliamentary committee by sacking some of his friends who should have been for Deuba as "'necessary evil".

A clever Deuba apparently will not prefer to hit his own friends in the cabinet for fear of being pulled by his nearest and dearest political rival-Koirala. If Deuba sticks to his "maintain status quo" scheme, the same could be hoped from President Koirala for he too would not prefer to destabilize his own comfortable strength in the party's central committee.

This clearly means that the big fight will continue for some more time to come.

Is a 'reunion' possible between UML and ML?

Kathmandu: Mercury is definitely going down but not the Nepali politics.

The country's politics is poised for a big show should things remain unchanged.

While the ruling Nepali congress is busy in sorting out its internal squabbles by floating fantastic formulae and proposals, the United Marxists-Leninists too has advanced a new theory that if brought into effect could see the happy "reunion" of the party with the ML-Marxists-Leninists currently led by GS Bam Dev Gautam.

To recall, the ML split from the UML some four years back on account of some "major" political differences with the mother party that is the UML.

The main difference in between the two, as we had been given to understand at time of the split, was the differing views of the leaders of both the parties on the most controversial Mahakali Treaty which got then ratified by the Nepali parliament.

If for the UML the Mahakali treaty was the biggest gain ever bagged by Nepal from India, it was that is the said treaty for the ML as one of the major set-back to the advantageous sharing of water resources for Nepal. The ML maintained that Nepal was the prime loser.

The ML basically split on this account.

However, there are now talks that the UML under the initiation of its GS, Madhav Nepal, is all set to play a major role in uniting both the parties.

In the process, Bam Dev Gautam of the ML apparently is too convinced that both the parties should unite considering the fluidity in the existing Nepalese politics.

One thing is sure, if the ML and the UML unite, it would be a formidable force indeed much to the discomfiture of the ruling party which is currently engaged in fierce internal squabbles.

However, question could now be made as to on what conditions the reunion of the ML with the UML is being planned and will be made possible? It could even be asked to both of them as to what prompted the UML and the ML leaders to come together at this very particular time? Do they see threat to democracy as seen at times by president Koirala? And finally it could also be asked of them as to how they would treat the Mahakali treaty onwards?

Importantly, should this mean that the UML now considers the Mahakali treaty as had been seen by the ML prior to the formal split? Or is it that the ML apologized for having taken the treaty in a manner that diametrically were opposed to the UMLs views?

These were few questions, which demanded answers from the parties who wish to join hands again and work for the betterment of the country in the future.

Independent analysts wish to extract meaning from this reunion of the UML and the ML.

If this reunion takes place, say analysts, will perhaps benefit Madhav Nepal politically who is perhaps feeling a sort of threat to his position because of the growing strength of his rival-K.P.Woli.

Madhav Nepal lobby apparently thinks that the moment Bam Dev Gautam is in, Woli will have very rough time in the party for obvious reasons.

The fact is that the Woli faction has till to date neither exhibited its profound happiness over the unity proposal nor has indicated that it was pretty annoyed with the emerging scheme of things.

Whether the reunion augurs well for both the parties or sows the seed for yet another split will have to be carefully watched.

Will King Gyanendra mediate in between India and Pakistan?

Kathmandu: Thanks the Almighty that both India and Pakistan have confirmed their arrival in Kathmandu in order to attend the almost defunct process of what was once called the SAARC movement.

The SAARC process that came into being in Dhaka some 15 years ago with a big-bang is at the moment in death-bed condition provided the Medicos from India and Pakistan ( Read Prime Minister Bajpayee and President Musarraf) agree to treat this patient called SAARC with equal sincerity.

The Indian and the Pakistani leadership must be thanked for their "'Himalayan patience" that they exhibited this time when in fact a sort of war-like situation still prevails at their international borders.

The December 13 event last year that rocked the Indian parliament and the subsequent allegations and the instant denials of the same from India and Pakistan respectively onto each other had almost blurred the prospects of the convening of the eleventh Summit here. However, things have changed for better and one could guarantee the happening of this much awaited event in Kathmandu beginning the end of this week.

Undoubtedly, the entire process of SAARC and the advantages which the people of the region expect from this process will depend much on the "real engagement" of India and Pakistan.

By this time it has already become evident that SAARC minus India and Pakistan would be not more than a "poor men's club".

In order to give the SAARC movement a real boost, the smaller countries of the region namely, Nepal, B'desh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives, must jointly work this round of the Summit and convince both the South Asian giants that their bilateral conflicts have become ad nauseating for the rest of the countries of the region. The smaller countries of the region must ensure a secured environment in the vicinity which has already been threatened by the presence of Nuclear arsenals in both India and Pakistan.

We understand that Prime Minister Bajpayee is a very respected person of the region and understands the sensitivities of the smaller nations of South Asia. Likewise, we possess no doubt over the Pakistani President's wish to see the region being freed from the devastating threats of the nuclear armaments.

It is time that India and Pakistan both take the issues of the smaller nations in its right perspective and assure these nations that their conflict will not pose any threat to the security environment in the region and that their bilateral never ending tussle will not come as a threat to the very existence of the SAARC process.

Diplomatically speaking, Nepal can bag accolades from both India and Pakistan provided it makes efforts aimed at bringing the two South Asian rivals together in Kathmandu on the sidelines of the Summit.

Reports reaching us reveal that efforts aimed at that were being charted out.

Whether it be at the level of the head of the government or even at the very highest level of the Head of the State, Nepal must not miss this chance.

It would be as a matter of fact nice if this Himalayan responsibility is being shouldered by the constitutional monarch himself.

Likewise, His Majesty King Gyanendra can utilize his meetings with H.M.Wangchuk in sorting out the refugee issue.

To cut it short, an opportune moment has come to the Nepalese doorsteps wherein we can exhibit our diplomatic acumen.

B'desh trade fair begins today

Kathmandu: The Embassy of Bangladesh in the Kingdom of Nepal in cooperation with the Export Promotion Bureau, Dhaka, is organizing "Bangladesh Single Country Trade Exhibition" in Kathmandu beginning today.

The trade exhibition will continue till the 6 of January 2002, it is learnt from the embassy sources.

The entrance to the trade fair/exhibition is free and hence the organizers expect that a good number of Nepalese industrialists, businessmen and the likes will drop in at the premises of the exhibition.

The exhibition will comprise of goods from Bangladesh such as ceramics, clothes, utensils, pharmaceuticals, leather goods and etc.

Last week the embassy organised a press conference in order to let the Nepali media men to know the details of the exhibition and the products to be displayed there.

"'We hope that such events contribute immensely in enhancing bilateral trade which at the moment is fluctuating resulting in the less trade transaction in between our two countries", said Humayun Kabir, the newly arrived charge de' affaires at the Bangladesh embassy.

According to Mr. Kabir, the time had come that both Nepal and Bangladesh came together and discussed ways and means to promote the almost stagnant trade between the two countries.

"'We will welcome the Nepalese trade fair of this sort in Dhaka provided the Nepali side is willing to do so"', declared Kabir.

To a query of the Telegraph, the charge de' affaires said that prior to the commencement of a bus service that will link Kathmandu with Dhaka or vice versa, some necessary procedures have to be completed.

Perhaps he was hinting at the official Indian persuasion needed for the regularization of the bus service to and fro from Dhaka to Kathmandu and the other way round.

Regarding the Fulwari transit route, Mr. Humayun Kabir opined that the moment this route was fully utilized by Nepalese side, the basic facilities needed by the other side would be provided without any let or hindrance.

Mr. Kabir is here till the SAARC Summit.

To recall, Bangladesh have yet to name its Ambassador for the Nepali court.

Counsellor, Mr. Abdul Quadir gave the salient features of the trade exhibition that begins right from today at Hotel Blue Star.

Military's superiority over Maoists

Kathmandu: By and large the Nepalese population have greeted the Royal Nepal Army's action against the Maoists insurgents.

The state of emergency imposed in the country has already crossed the fifth week and till now, as per the available sources, the Maoists in hundreds and hundred have lost their lives and the army is apparently in a mood to step up their actions against the insurgents further.

The loss of their friends and cadres in good numbers must have weakened the Maoists leadership from within. Rumors are that even the top haps of the Maoists insurgents too have accepted that they have suffered heavy losses at the hands of the Nepali army.

But then the fact is that the military operation is becoming a very costly exercise for a poor country like Nepal. In effect, when the military is out of the barracks for a declared national mission and when they ask for extra material and financial support which they need to continue for the assigned job, the government at the center can't and should not deny the request.

This is becoming expensive for the entire nation.

Rumors have it that the nation is already in huge financial crisis and is planning to do away with this financial shortage with a supplementary budget tentatively being brought through the use of yet another Royal Ordinance.

If the success stories revealed by the Military were to be believed then what could be fairly guessed at this stage is that the military men have already come heavily down against the Maoists and time permitting the insurgency will be left at a meager strength or even totally wiped.

The military men were doing their jobs honestly. Visibly the strength of the insurgency has touched a new low. But yet will it not be possible to resume the dialogues with them if they voluntarily disarm themselves? After all the military too says that it is in the mission of disarming the insurgents.

This would perhaps lessen the number of killings of the Nepali lives in both the camps.

Talk on peace and development

Kathmandu: How does one explain the irony that the very year which started the first decade of the 21 st century, a decade declared by the UN as a Decade for a Culture of Peace and Non-violence for the Children of the World some how turned to be one of the most violent and turbulent leaving three dates etched for ever in the people's memory-the night of June 1, the morning of September 11 and the day of December 13?

As the year 2001 was ticking to its close, Pragya, a public education foundation took up these queries for discussion in the course of an afternoon talk program on 31 December 2001 last year.

The chairman of the Pragya Dr. Jagdish Sharma said that his institution stood for truth and enlightenment. However, Mr. Sharma in the process preferred to quote an unknown Indian instead of a Nepali scholar on what should be done to make the world a better place to live in. The attending participants took this in a very bad taste. Dr. Sharma perhaps felt that Nepal lacked scholars of the sort of the one whom he wished to glorify on the occasion.

Later Dr. Shri Krishna Yadav wished the New Year to bring warmth and peace in the country.

Mr. Birendra Shrestha reminded the participants that onto light is the way forward.

The next speaker, Yub Raj Singh Pradhan stressed the need for peace and development.

Mr. Madan Mani Dixit, former vice chancellor at the Royal Nepal Academy said that Pragya signified creative thinking and discarding ignorance and that he believed not in divine spiritualism but spiritualism based on established human values.

Mahesh Mani Dixit, an MP, noted that it was good to see multiparty democracy surviving all the trials and tribulations of the past year and decade and that the parliament has put on its agenda the issues of underprivileged class of the Nepali society.

The talk program was followed by a brief musical concert by the groups of Bikas Yogi and Narayan Khadka. Reena Yadav and Raghu Aditya compered the program which ended up with dinner and campfire.

National | 5 Question  | Editorial | 2nd Impression | International | Past