I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s

Is the Nation in a dangerous state ?

Kathmandu: An unreal sense of calm pervades in the nation. Daily reports, separately, from the defense and the Home Ministry sources reminds the public of the Maoists insurgency. Political statements continue to emphasize the threats to democracy by the emergency. The unity efforts on the part of the UML and ML insist that the process of strengthening and weakening the political parties remain. Girija Koirala's national government move underscores the continuity of political priorities in Kathmandu. But this is not all.

The fact of the matter is that the state of the nation is precarious. The Army-Police resources have been stretched by the Maoists who now reportedly take shelter among the public and seek recourse in the hit-and-run actions. The fact of the matter again is that Army-Police responsibilities in identifying the Maoists have no help from the political parties who remain sole monopolists of civil society organizations in the partisanized countryside. It is largely campus and schoolteachers, students who have remained political activists and seek benefit from a system of spoils that make the dominant party workers in the day and the insurgents during the night allegedly. Last week saw publications openly alleging that civil servants in the districts and the villages appointed by the government have been aiding and sheltering the Maoists moves. In the background of the elected bodies in affected areas having been virtually paralyzed over the years of the insurgency, the absence of effective civic bodies including that of the government office is actually stretching the limits of the emergency, to say the least.

To this must be added the state of an economy which is already finding unaffordable an anti-insurgency movement less that two months old. Exhausted economics is now pressing the government to take up harsh actions to garner domestic resources. Predictably, these actions have fallen far short of targets that had been purposely bloated for the sake of mere politics.

With political parties at ground level virtually ineffective, with government paralyzed in grappling with problems by these very political parties, with the economy fast sinking at the hands of self-preying political organizations and with the national security organs dangerously over-stretched in dealing with the Maoists, the nation is poised for a change indeed.

Madhav Nepal to benefit from UML-ML reunification

Kathmandu: The political parties which behaved with each other till the other day as enemies are all prepared for a happy reunion.

However, whether it were a merger of the ML into the UML or merely a reunification is still not clear. Moreover, which of the two, the ML and the UML, apologized for the sad break-up some four years back has not yet been made clear to the public. It will take some more time to understand the status of the controversial Mahakali treaty signed with India, which tentatively caused this split and the emergence of a new party, the ML.

Predictably, the ML led by Bam Dev Gautam either would have apologized for the split on count of the Mahakali treaty or the UML under Madhav Nepal too would have subscribed to the ML's former view. Or it could even be that both the ML and the UML preferred not to dig up the corpse from under the earth and decided not to raise the said issue any more.

That the reunion is taking place soon in between the ML and the UML, it would be fitness of things to analyze its would be impact on the national politics.

Firstly, the reunification or even say the merger of the ML into the UML is taking a concrete shape at a time when the nation is in a state of emergency.

Secondly, the assimilation of the two communist parties is also taking place when the ruling congress is sharply divided over a host of national issues such as, among others, the scrapping up of the state of the emergency or not.

Thirdly, the would be unification of the UML and the ML is materializing at a time when the national economy is under tremendous stress due to the imposition of the emergency and the cost involved in order to sustain the mobilization of the army.

Fourthly, the coming together of the ML and the UML is happening at a time when the nation is tired of the congress misrule.

Fifthly, whether this unification process is a result of their own compulsion or was a "guided one" from certain "influential quarters" is still a mystery.

And sixthly and perhaps more importantly, the reunion is scheduled at a time when some political quarters sense a threat to democracy from certain powerful camps. However, which quarter could be that, the political camps prefer not to divulge.

Analyzing all these ifs and buts what could be easily guessed is that the UML after the ML's merger into its main stream will instantly become a formidable force.

It is not for nothing has been said that one's added strength could be other's weakness. In this sense it is clear that the ruling congress will consider itself dwarfed after the reunification of the ML with the UML. Needless to say, the UML as a communist paraphernalia is better organized and disciplined compared to its arch rival the ruling Nepali congress.

The unification will now allow the Communists to match its strength with that of the ruling political party even in the districts. Because the communists are better organized and trained to a greater extent, the unification will definitely offer them clear edge over their rival in practically all matters concerning the issue of the nation.

The present unification of the two communists forces will not only double their numerical strength but would in all likelihood offer them greater number of seats in the parliament should the country decide to go for a snap poll.

Understandably, the majority that is currently being enjoyed by the ruling congress was only possible because the UML split just a year of the last general elections. Now that they both have come together, it would be very difficult for the congress to keep intact the present numerical strength in the parliament next round of the general elections.

The present unification of the two communist parties is apparently guided by the charm that should they both join hands, the party could easily bounce back to power. For the two parties now in the process of unification, what the split meant has apparently been made clear at time of the last general election. If the UML could secure only the second place in the parliament and had to console with the role of the main opposition, the ML even could not secure one single set for its party in the parliament.

The million-dollar question is how one single forest can house two tigers?

Understandably, the forest symbolizes the UML and the two tigers were K.P.Woli and the firebrand Bam Dev Gautam.

To recall, as rumors have it there has been a constant show of strength in between Madhav Nepal and his rival K.P.Woli. Informed sources in the UML say that Madhav Nepal will now have a clear edge over his nearest rival Woli after Bam Dev enters in.

Insiders of the UML say that the moment Bam Dev is in, the Woli faction in the UML will feel somewhat threatened for obvious reasons. The explanation given appears justifiable in the sense that it was Madhav Nepal's personal tête-à-tête and dialogues with Bam Dev Gautam, which has paved the way for this much publicized unification. Any why Madhav Nepal was more than interested to bring in Bam Dev is quite understandable.

Whether Bam Dev benefits from this would be unification or not is still unclear. However, what is apparently evident that Madhav Nepal in doing so has killed two birds with one stone. If he through this unification move gained strength in the national politics on the one hand, then on the other he has improved his dwindling strength inside his own party. Understandably, the entrance of Bam Dev Gautam in the UML mainstream would have come as a bitter pill for the Woli faction.

The fact is that neither Woli and his followers could block the unification process which is already in its advanced stage nor could feel comfortable in the party after the entrance of the firebrand Bam Dev Gautam.

All in all, the unification of the two communist groupings will continue to create ripples in Kathmandu's political circle.

Needless to say, the congress will have to change their strategies if they really wish to match the strength of the newly unifies ML and the UML.

How Bam Dev and K.P.Woli adjust themselves in this entirely changed situation and context will have to be carefully watched.

Is C.P.Mainali the lone crusader?

Kathmandu: Indications are that some powerful leaders in the ML apparently were not that much eager to join the UML.

This section wishes to join the UML indeed but after discussing the details of the unification such as , for example, what will be their status in the UML; how they will be treated in the party and above all what would be the set of the conditions for such a reunification.

While Bam Dev Gautam, the strongman of the ML appears to have already declared that he would join the UML come what may, his other friends such as Sahana Pradhan and C.P.Mainali have certain reservations.

The Chairperson of the ML, Ms. Sahana Pradhan opines that the merger should take pace only after settling the "ideological lines".

On the contrary, C. P. Mainali, an ideologue of the party, summarily rejects the idea of the unification and prefers not to join the UML at this juncture for his own reasons.

This means that at the moment there were three diametrically opposed lines in the ML. The first is the unconditional entrance into the UML as maintained by leader Bam Dev Gautam. The otherset led by Sahana Pradhan wishes to enter the UML but settling ideological disputes which has remained the root cause for the previous split.

The third set led by C.P.Mainali rejects the unification forwarding his own reasons.

Mainali wishes to allege Bam Dev Gautam for this entire hotchpotch. According to him, if they were all to enter again into the UML, why the split then four years back?

"'It is all due to the soi disant policy of Bam Dev Gautam that the ML could not achieve the goals for which it had come into existence"''', said Mainali Tuesday morning to a local FM Radio channel.

"He was not only arrogant but also undemocratic in the conduct of the party affairs"'', added the ideologue.

However, Mainali wished his friends a bright future in the UML after the merger.

"'People with like minds wish to be amidst the same gathering", continued Mainali when he was asked to comment on how he was feeling when most of his close friends were joining the UML.

Mainali further said that "take it for granted that the ML will be kept alive even if my friends abandon this party".

ML sources say that most of the ML leaders subscribe to the view advanced by Chairman Sahana Pradhan. Members like Ashoka Rai, Siddhi Lal Singh and Sambhuram Shrestha find themselves close to Ms. Pradhan's view. Similarly those who champion the cause of Bam Dev Gautam were R.K.Mainali and Trilochan Dhakal.

Both the Polit Bureau and the Central Committee of the party have rejected C.P.Mainali's views outrightly.

Analyzing these different views what could be said is that the ML will join the UML shortly and Mainali will be left in the cold. How C.P.Mainali gives a new lease of life to the almost defunct ML will have to be watched.

Mainali's staying back in the ML perhaps is meaningful in the sense that time permitting this well calculated move might sow the seeds of yet another split in the UML.

President Koirala gives his mysterious BDA plan a new twist!

Kathmandu: President Girija Prasad Koirala's mysterious idea of forging a "broader democratic alliance" has neither bagged accolades from the other political parties nor has moved forward from the day it was declared.

This means that either the political parties did not understood the enigmatic intrinsic value of Koirala's brand-new idea or simply wished it to brush aside considering it to be merely a ploy to destabilize his own party-government.

However, the ground reality is that neither the national population nor even the potential political forces of the nation could "digest" Koirala's views for obvious reasons.

The reasons are very much clear indeed.

Firstly, the political parties with whom Koirala wished to forge alliance questioned the timing of his brand new proposal. Secondly, the political actors of the nation could not believe that the present Koirala plan were in essence for the overall betterment of the nation. Thirdly, the political parties who knew Koirala's performance and the working styles while being in government questioned as to why such outstanding proposals he did not forwarded when he himself was in the saddle of government?

Reports have it that President Koirala's own men in the party know less about the fresh plan floated by the former. Albeit they wish it go a long way simply because they can't criticize the proposal for fear of losing Koirala's blessings.

But then there are some personalities who have become rebellion of late and have remained vocal against Koirala's plan.

Those who have been opposing his plan are being slowly but very efficiently being sidelined. In the process President Koirala is slowly but gradually losing his grip in the party. Ideologue Narhari Acharya has been very recently been told to resign for his utterances which Koirala considered to have gone beyond the stipulated limits of the party.

Though the context differ but yet President Koirala is learnt to have decided to sack a few more congress leaders for their "unacceptable utterances". Those talked to be in the list of being sacked soon were ministers Jay Prakash Gupta and Rajendra Kharel.

Be that as it may, no sane person on earth would disagree with President Koirala's proposal for the formation of a broader democratic alliance provided if it were to solve the present ailments those have gripped the nation. But then the timing of the proposal is somewhat mysterious indeed.

More mysterious is Koirala's idea of including the constitutional monarch in his plan. Things have become more compounded because the RPP too in its fresh decision sees a role of the monarch in order to forge a national consensus in the nation in order to resolve the present crises.

Only wordings differ in Koirala's appeal and the RPPs fresh conclusion.

While Koirala wishes to include the King then the RPP seeks King's "confidence" in their freshly arrived at conclusion.

The gist is the same and that being that both the congress' Koirala faction and the RPP under S.B.Thapa conclude that King's participation or for that matter securing King's confidence was a must prior to the formation of such consensus or even the alliance as propounded by Koirala.

Kathmandu intellectuals remain baffled as to how two different political parties could arrive at almost same conclusion? Intellectuals ask how come the constitutional monarch suddenly becomes so important in their conclusions?

The fact is that the Royal Palace is yet not a spent force indeed. It is still powerful. But then question could well be posed as to why they both need King's involvement in a politics wherein the monarch has nothing to do? By the same token yet another question could be posed to both the congress and the RPP as to what would happen if the King begins greater say in national politics? Will it be nice to drag the constitutional monarch in the country's mundane politics? Or is it that the King himself wishes to get Himself involved in national politics?

To the best of our knowledge the King has till todate exhibited his total reluctance in this regard.

More so, have the political parties who wish King's participation in their scheme of things talked to King Gyanendra on the matter? If yes then how the constitutional monarch responded to their fervent requests?

The concerned political parties at the earliest must answer these questions or else confusion will prevail not only among the already confused population but also among their own party activists.

Undeniably, the King remains in favor of democratic consolidation. He wishes that political parties exhibit their total commitment for the constitution and act in a manner that was expected of them. The monarch wishes a vibrant press to act like a watchdog and inform the population about the existing politics of the nation in an independent manner. In saying so the King wishes to hint the political parties that he is in favor of democratic system. If it is so then why these political parties wish to drag the monarch in politics is the million-dollar question which has got to be answered.

Better late than never President Koirala has given a meaningful twist to his BDA plan. He now describes that the BDA is aimed at strengthening democracy and bringing about a change in the country through economic revolution.

If it were so then no sane person on earth would disagree with his BDA scheme. But then if it were just a political "gimmick" and a ploy to collapse the regime of Deuba then obviously it would die a premature death.

Nepal to benefit from Colin Powel's visit

Kathmandu: What brings the United States Secretary of State Colin Powel to Kathmandu at time when the country is undergoing thorough a state of emergency is a common question that is being asked by the nation's intellectuals.

Definitely the US dignitary is not visiting Nepal simply because we possess world's most beautiful snow-capped mountains. He is not coming here to praise the "all time smiling people" of this Himalayan Kingdom even if they do not get two meals a day.

Certainly not. The high powered US official is certainly in a mission.

High placed sources in Nepali bureaucracy opine that the visit of the US authority will immensely be utilized by Nepal in the sense that at the moment both America and Nepal were being the targets of the terrorists. The US would be more than willing to help Nepal in containing the threat of the Maoists insurgency and in the process Nepal might forward its begging bowl to secure some heavy economic aid in order to sustain the mobilization of the army.

Undeniably, the mobilization of the army in the Maoists affected areas were becoming costly economics indeed and as the rumors go the Nepali establishment needs big amounts to continue the operation against the Maoists insurgency. Understandably, the already mobilised army needs more weapons and machinery to face the insurgents. The fact is that the government is finding it very difficult to cater to the needs of the nation's armed forces.

The US in all likelihood would honor Nepal's request for the US has already declared that it wishes to see a world free from the menace of terrorism.

More so Nepal will get an opportunity to brief the US officials regarding the gains of the SAARC XI held in Kathmandu recently wherein both India and Pakistan attended the proceedings.

Since Colin Powel's visit is also coinciding with the much-publicized reunion of the ML with the UML who will perhaps be interested in knowing from his Kathmandu based officials as to what impact this would be reunion would have on the existing state of Nepalese politics.

In lieu, if any, the US Secretary of State might suggest the Nepalese authorities and leaders to work with dedication for the consolidation of the system now in place.

The US authority is arriving Friday afternoon and will leave for Tokyo the next day.

Phillipe Perrin, a Frenchman heads for the stars

Sylvie BULLO, France

France is greatly involved in space research and, next spring, one of her famous astronauts, Phillipe Perrin, will fly off in space to join the International Space Station, ISS.

"I will wait for my day!", Phillipe Perrin exclaimed on learning the news. It is enough to give wings to this French astronaut for CNES, the French space studies center, who will go on his first flight in space this March. It is no ordinary flight and neither is the mission involved. On board an American shuttle, he will fly to the future ISS to continue assembling this huge Meccano set.

"It is an extraordinary profession which one does out of exaltation but also for France and for scientific research", the astronaut, who will hold the position of flight engineer on this mission, declared. Five months after famous Claudie Andre-Deshays, who flew in October, Phillipe Perrin will thus be the second French person and European to have been selected by the head of NASA, Daniel Goldin. This huge, largely international building site in space, which was launched in 1998 should be completed around 2006. In July 2000, a Russian module, Zvesda, Star, had successfully joined the American module Unity which was, itself linked up to another Russian module, Zary, Dawn.

The ISS, which now benefits from solar panels, has permanently been occupied since November 2000. Its first inhabitants are two Russians, Yury Guidzenko and Sergey Krikaliov, and an American, William Sheperd. In February 2001, the addition of the American module Destiny, will make this space station the largest orbital complex ever assembled in space. Fifty-one meter long, seventy-two meters wide and twenty-seven meters high, the ISS has a mass of hundred and twelve tonnes for four hundred and fourteen square meters of living space. Besides his toothbrush, Phillipe Perrin will take some Italian scientific instruments for Destiny along in his luggage, but his most important task will consists of installing the MBS, Mobile Base System, a remote controlled mobile unit. It will enable the remote-handling arm, built by Canada and fitted onto the enormous metal trellis of the station, to move around the station thereby reducing the number of times astronauts will have to go out into the space, which is always a delicate operation. The station will then be able to fulfil its first objective: scientific research.

To successfully carry out such a mission, the strictest training is required. Since last May, Perrin has worked even harder at the "Johnson Space Center" in Houston, Texas. He already knows this center well as he had been there in 1996 when CNES announced that he had been selected as an astronaut. For him, going into space was not just the whim of a spoilt child but the culmination of a dream and a way of completing a high-flying career. He was born on 6 January 1963 in Meknes in Morocco and went to the prestigious Ecole Polytechnique School of engineering in Paris in 1982. During his studies, he did his military service in the Navy and spent six months in the Indian Ocean. Once he had graduated as an engineer, he decided to the Air Force. He came first in his year and became a pilot, flying from the air base in Strasbourg in the East of France, on a Mirage for missions in Saudi Arabia and in Africa. A few years later, in 1993, he became a test pilot and then an airline pilot. The straight line that his career followed led him directly to CNES, and then to NASA in Houston. He has accomplished twenty-six fighter missions and has clocked up more than 2,500 hours of flying time on more than thirty kinds of aircraft, from fighter-planes to Airbuses. It is a fine achievement, which earned him the Legion d’ Honneur in 1999.

With his feet on the ground, he goes back to being a father like anyone else and looks after his two children, using his free time to read and reread books on the histiory of science, to do stunt flying or scuba-diving. Plunging into the depths or soaring into the sky, Perrin has found his right balance.

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