I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s

Economic collapse imminent!

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's six-month old Cabinet has been unprecedentedly eventful. His first weeks were begun with high-impacting programs such as "land-reforms","Kamaiya liberation" and the talks with the Maoists insurgents. Merely months later his cabinet had to see the emergency imposed in the country. This month saw him hosting SAARC Summit and US Secretary of State Colin Powell.

These high profile activities however, have done little to boost his image. The land reforms are viewed everywhere as ineffective. The bonded labor issue is recognized to have rebounded. The Maoists talks failed and thus the emergency. SAARC saw of little Nepali priority and more of the Indo-Pak angle. Powell left Nepal suggesting better governance.

At a much more urbane level, bad governance, bad politics has shifted attention forcefully to the economics of it all. The government is broke. Investments are scared. Production has stalled. Consumption has slumped. Any promise of economic enthusement is tarnished by the focus on the insurgency and the emergency.

These have resulted in very contradictory moves on part of government reflecting the desperation. The need to raise spending money prompts government to focus on revenue collection. Common economic sense would want to woo money circulation through concessions in revenue. As a result of the focus on taxes, spending has decreased. Our revenue-based economy has thus been further affected. An income from customs tariff has slackened while tax collection has been far removed from expectations. To boot, spending in productive enterprise as investments has been scared. Government itself accepts that all traditional earners and employment sources have been radically affected in the non-agricultural sector. Government accepts again that even the traditional sector, agriculture, is not finding suitable prices at home.

It is these real indicators that signal imminent economic collapse. While Sher Bahadur Deuba is certainly not to be blamed for the problems, his choices of remedies have hardly been effective. They have actually compounded the problems and contributed to the current malaise.

It is these factors that make the forthcoming winter session of the parliament crucial. Far from the fact that the session is to decide upon the emergency's longevity, it is also to discuss the approval of the supplementary budget and the dislocation of allocated funds approved in the current fiscal year. Moreover, the winter session is to be the arena for yet another power-grab from Deuba's party detractors. Politics continues no doubt, but the economy is regressing.

Don't weaken the morale of the military force or else it would boomerang!

Kathmandu: President Girija Prasad Koirala preferred not be in the valley while US Secretary of State Colin Powell was here.

President Koirala chose to lambaste at the alleged failure of his own party government in protecting the lives of the common men more so of their own partymen at time of the emergency.

Koirala wished to join the chorus of the main opposition who now jointly demands the end to the state of emergency in the country at the earliest.

President Koirala in doing so is explicitly not supporting his own party-government what was expected of him.

The ruling set under Sher Bahadur Deuba should really be in a puzzle in ascertaining who is what and more so who were his friends and that too in a party that elevated him to the position of the nation's Prime Minister.

The fact is that neither President Koirala is happy with Deuba becoming the Prime Minister nor he has digested the army's unhindered mobilization in containing the threats of the Maoists insurgents.

The fact is that he would have been happy if things could have happened during his Prime Ministership. However, the fact is that he could not muster the needed support from Nepal's major political forces to what the military perhaps hinted him during his stewardship of the nation some six months back.

His lambasting at his own government that it was unable to protect its citizens in the remote areas is in essence a truth. The fact is that the Maoists appear to have changed their strategies of late. Instead of facing the Royal Nepal Army, comparatively a giant force indeed, in the districts, the Maoists have now begun terrorizing the common civilians. In the process, the insurgents have made their targets to the congressmen in the districts to the utter surprise of many intellectuals in the country. Why the Maoists chose the congress workers is really a mystery.

However, this is not all. The Maoists have of late made their targets to the men belonging to other political camps as well.

So if Girija Prasad Koirala exhibits his attachment for his workers more so when they were brutally killed by the insurgents should not come as a surprise for any one. As a guardian of the party this is what he should do and is perhaps doing.

However, in criticizing the government of its utter failure in protecting the lives of innocent civilians and that too at time of the emergency, President Koirala apparently must not utter any word(s) that weaken the morale of the military men now in action against the insurgents. Koirala must understand the fact that the military force is the single dedicated and loyal entity in the country on which the nation possesses total faith. Any unwanted comment against this honest unit would boomerang.

However, this is not to say that the military should be left to act on its own. The military is perhaps acting as per the guidance of the government of the day. It is perhaps all the more conscious in protecting as many innocent lives it could at time of its attack against the Maoists insurgents.

Regarding the end of the emergency, the national population too wishes that it came to an end. But then if one were to believe the fresh utterances of the nation's Prime Minister made in Pokhara the other day what becomes clear is that the state of emergency in the country will take yet another similar period.

Prime Minister Deuba's determination to go ahead with the state of emergency has come close on the heels of the visiting US Secretary of State Colin Powell's statement made in Kathmandu wherein he too wished the emergency to be a short one. How the US will take this continuation will have to be watched.

What this means to the nation and its already crumbling economy is any body's guess. The imposition of the state of emergency has already become a very expensive affair indeed and that the government has no resources to sustain the continued mobilization of the army becomes amply clear from the very imposition of further taxes on the people through the use of royal ordinance.

A democratic government imposing taxes on the already squeezed population through the use of backdoor is very difficult to understand indeed.

Be that as it may, instead of taxing the deaf-dumb population of the nation, the government under Deuba should have squeezed some big and top ten currently housed in his own cabinet and could have raided the houses of some noted criminal like politicians who could change their fate well within ten years of this democratic rule.

Taxing further the already taxed citizens would mean asking for blood from the ill-fated citizens of this country whose single fault had been that they took birth in this Himalayan Kingdom.

Why Bam Dev is excessively eager to join the UML?

Kathmandu: A minor hitch has come on the way of the much-publicized UML-ML reunification.

Though the hitch is a minor one which would perhaps not block the way for the proposed reunification in between the communist paraphernalia for long but yet since the hitch revolved round a topic that in essence caused the very split some five years ago and hence what could be said at this stage is that the party even if united in a short time from now will continue to reel under the same controversy which caused its split.

The bone of contention is the controversial Mahakali Treaty signed with India in 1996 when Sher Bahadur Deuba was the Prime Minister of the nation.

To recall, the present day UML and its stalwarts considered the Mahakali treaty as one which would elevate the ranks of poor Nepal to that of Singapore and thus made Himalayan efforts at time of its ratification in the Parliament. On the other, the present day ML considered the said treaty as an unequal one and thus even described the treaty as an anti-nationalist act and opted to split the party.

The fact is that the ML led by Bam Dev Gautam wishes a happy reunion at the earliest but yet prefers to remind the UML stalwarts that the party prior to the unification agrees to accept the "differing stance" on the controversial Mahakali treaty.

This means that the ML still has not budged an inch from its previous stance on the Mahakali treaty. However, the change in its attitude if any is that the ML as a party wishes to join the UML albeit but registering officially its disagreements on the said treaty prior to the unification.

Unfortunately, the UML as a party does not want this ML stance to get incorporated in the final declaration of their would-be reunification.

Madhav Nepal who will benefit immensely from such unification finds himself closer to Bam Dev's new stance but then does not have that courage to annoy his other friends in the party's central committee.

In essence, Madhav Nepal is scared of his political rival-K.P.Woli who in effect remained instrumental in getting the Mahakali treaty ratified from the parliament. Insiders in the UML say that Comrade Woli is also very strong in the present day UML and from his inner heart wishes a total collapse of the unification talks. According to this source, Woli thinks that the moment Bamdev is in, he will be in a minority, which would mean the predominance of his political rival that is Madhav Nepal in practically all party-related political matters.

"Bringing in Bam Dev back again in the UML might change the internal equation in the party", said a UMLite on condition of anonymity. Explaining it bit further the source added that Woli is really afraid of Bam Dev's aggressive stances which he takes at crucial times.

Be that as it may, how the two parties take the matter pertaining to the Mahakali treaty will determine the fate of their reunion in the coming days and weeks.

Lastly, Bamdev Gautam's eagerness to join the mother institution is also very curious indeed. Will Gautam's presence in the unified UML bring about a substantial change in its existing policies? This will have to be carefully watched.

Is resumption of talks with Maoists possible!

Kathmandu: Two sets of diametrically opposed theories are at work concurrently regarding the continuation or of bringing about an abrupt end to the state of emergency in the country.

The first set is very powerful in the sense that it is being backed up by nation's major political parties including a section of the ruling congress itself. This group wishes an early scrapping up of the state of emergency. This set apparently needs the withdrawal of emergency from the country for exclusively three reasons.

Firstly, this camp alleges the government that it is heavily misusing the state of emergency and is harassing the men belonging to other parties plus the common men in the Maoists affected areas. Secondly, this group claims that the military men must not be left to act on their own and that there is no as such any mechanism yet formulated or devised by the government in order to assess the excesses of the army men.

Thirdly but perhaps most importantly, this set believes that once the military men out of their barracks, it would be really very difficult to see them returning back to their barracks.

The third point is indeed very important one in the sense that this set apparently senses a sort of fear that what if the military's ambitions grew in the meantime? A very important questions indeed but then till to day the military men have not exhibited their extra-political ambitions. Unless found in words or even in deeds there is perhaps nothing to panic.

However, what is for sure is that the military will remain out from their barracks until the government under Deuba so wishes. Deuba has made it abundantly clear that the army men will continue to remain engaged in their declared mission until they bag success.

It is altogether a different matter as to how long it would take to bag the success mentioned by Sher Bahadur Deuba. By the same token it is also unclear is that to bag that success what cost the national population or for that matter the nation will have to pay economically speaking.

However, the second set, which favors the continuation of the state of emergency, too has two reasons to support their theory.

Firstly, this set believes that after the mobilization of the army men, at least the national population has taken a sigh of relief and a sort of peace has again prevailed in the nation as before. A secured and peaceful life apparently guides this set. All that this camp needs is the prevalence of a permanent peace in the country immaterial of the cost involved.

Secondly, this set concludes that the morale of the military men will be weakened if they are told to come to their barracks without accomplishing their declared job for which they have left their barracks.

This notwithstanding, there is yet another theory that is some what different from the previous two sets of theories

The third theory talks more of making an atmosphere conducive for the resumption of the now abruptly suspended talks with the Maoists.

This set concludes that talks and only talks could be a solution to this overly stretched imbroglio. The advocators of this theory believe that since at the existing situation when the Maoists insurgency has pretty weakened strength-wise and that in the process they have lost thousands of their hardcore activists, it could be the best time to invite the insurgents for the talks. If the government does so would send positive signals to the other camp that will in all probability take this gesture as a genuine effort of the State for arriving at a solution to the issue, opines this camp.

Fortunately enough, the nation's Prime Minister too has hinted that the talks were possible with the insurgents provided they disarm themselves first.

How the government or for that matter the insurgents take the third theory is uncertain. However, what is certain is that talks if resumed would not only stop killing of a Nepali by another Nepali but would also save the country from the approaching economic collapse.

It is here that the government has to exhibit its magnanimity and by the same token the insurgents must also respond to the government's gesture with equal sincerity.

It is high time that the civil society members, human rights organizations rise up to the occasion and help save the country from going to the brink for obvious reasons.

But who will take the timely and prompt initiatives in this regard is a trillion-dollar question indeed?

Attention! Nepal Development Forum participants

Kathmandu: Better late than never, a very powerful US authority has hinted the Nepali establishment that this country would do well if it provided good governance and curb the menace of rampant corruption that existed at the very highest political echelons of the nation.

Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State made it abundantly clear to the Nepali authorities that a sizeable chunk of the Nepali malaise that have gripped the country of late would vanish in the thin air should the establishment act as per his advice which is apparently the suggestions of practically all the developed West.

It is in this light that the participants attending the meeting of the Nepal Development Forum scheduled for February 4, next month, should concentrate their attention prior to committing further donations to this country in the name of development.

The conditions put by the friendly international donors must be explicit: perform effectively; provide good governance at the earliest and finally bring stringent laws to take proper care of those leaders, politicians, ministers and bureaucrats who have had amassed wealth illegally during a short span of ten years or so.

The members of the Nepal Development Forum would do well if they talk straight to the nation's Prime Minister and tell the latter about their new conditions prior to extending millions and millions all in the name of Nepal's pseudo development.

"'Ministers, politicians and the bureaucrats have developed but not the nation"', lamented an intellectual.

"We need development aid but that should go to the targeted place and group"'', added the intellectual.

Reports have it that even at time of the emergency in the nation, a set of ugly faces in the cabinet and in the ministry were busy in finalizing certain deals that solely benefit them. It is for nothing that the UML only recently came out with such a claim and warned Prime Minister Deuba to control such ugly practices.

The attending donor countries could ask the government one blunt question. "Why it is that the men in the government were becoming richer and conversely the nation becoming poorer still with each chunk of development aid pouring into Nepal?

If the NDF participants wish to see Nepal really developed and prosperous they must change their stance this round of their meeting(s) in Kathmandu and Pokhara or else such high-profile meetings will have little impact on the overall deteriorating economic health of this nation.

RPP stands divided over next presidency

Kathmandu: The RPP is in the news these days.

The third largest party in the parliament is talked to be in a fix over whether the current chairman of the Party Surya Bahadur Thapa be allowed to continue as chairman for yet another round or should some one other than Thapa be elected for that post.

The party's constitution does not allow any person to enjoy the chairmanship more than two round in office. However, the fact is that Mr. Thapa's ambition is that he be allowed to continue as the chairman even if the constitution were to be amended.

His competitors do not subscribe to chairman Thapa's view.

In the process there now exist two or even more factions in the party. The possible candidates for the chairman of the party are talked to be Pashupati Rana, Dr. P.C.Lohani and even Rabindra Nath Sharma.

Unconfirmed reports have it that leader Lokendra Bahadur Chand has not yet spoken his mind but yet sources close to the RPP say that Chand might support that candidate whom President Thapa rejects at time of the election.

If that happens then yet another split in the RPP can't be ruled out, say independent observers.

According to them, L.B.Chand's reentry into the RPP mainstream was a compulsion for the Thapa faction. However, the fact is that Chand and Thapa continue to be arch-rival and hence their preference at time of the next election to the presidency would naturally be different.

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