People's heart is more important than the ballot count

Subhash Pokharel, NC Activist

The cause behind the untimely dissolution of the parliament amid the country's political turbulence is still beyond the ken of the political analysts. What was the exigency of the Prime Minister Sherbahadur Deuba, who has already been in the third position just behind the founding-member of the Nepali Congress party K.P.Bhattarai and President G.P.Koirala to dissolve the parliament, which is already scheduled to meet next day to resolve the national crisis. Can the dissolution be just because of his will to remain Prime Minister for a few months more? Or there may be any beyond-the-scene conspiracy as alleged by the politicians.

Head of government Mr. Deuba was in exalted position within the ruling party and recent Pokhara convention has unanimously accepted Mr. Deuba as an alternate party president. Due to both the leaders' decrepitude sole responsibility of the party was about to be shouldered to Mr. Deuba within a couple of years. Despite those realities, Prime Minister Deuba dissolved the parliament without informing even the close allies of his own cabinet. It has also been feared that during the night Premier Deuba has been perpetrated for the parliament dissolution and has been assured for his and his aides' safe back to the parliament after the hustings.

After the declaration of the state of emergency throughout the country almost eight months back, merely all the basic rights guaranteed by the nation for her citizens have been suspended. Entire nation is in the clutch of the security personnel instead of the elected representatives. Civil rule has been transplanted by the sergeant's raspy voice.

As per demands of the army, Mr. Deuba has re-imposed the state of emergency despite the negation of all the political parties within and out of the parliament. He even did not hesitate to desert his party decisions. Ultimately, he dissolved the parliament to strengthen the role of army in the name of crushing of terrorism. In this bet Mr. Deuba became successful and all the others fail, democratic system suffers.

It is tacit fact that emergency declaration is the army-rule. Contrary of previous experiences, this time, we are going in the parliamentary elections amid the emergency. Security situation is so turmoil that it is irrational even to think of the free and fair ballot-play. The elections are carried out by army overtly or beyond the curtain. So, this time it is feared parliament be composed of not by the free and fair elections rather by the selections of the security forces.

Accusing his involvement with the anti-democratic force, Nepali Congress has renounced Mr. Deuba of the party membership for three full years. After shunned from the party, he formed a new political party amassing the workers of the Congress. So, considering the strength of the workers in both the factions till to-date, after five decades, Nepali Congress has undergone a vertical split. It is harsh reality that both the moieties of the Congress are too weak to secure majority in the incoming parliament.

Studying the strengths of the Nepal Communist Party ML lead by Bamdev Gautam, and RPP-Chand in the erstwhile House compelled us to forecast the upcoming parliamentary elections results. Nepalese subjects are matured to decide whom to favor and whom to punish? Party deserters and opportunists are punished and the same is going to repeat this time also.

Most probably, UML is going to command majority in impending parliament. None of the political analysts can deviate from this lucid analysis. Then why Mr. Deuba despite of being pertinent future-leader of the united Congress party came to the conclusion to dissolve the house and became a leader of a faction. Couldn't he learn any more lessons from Mr. Bamdev Gautam?

But, contrary to the facts, Deuba is hopeful to be the prime minister in the future as well. His cabinet's spokesperson Mr. J.P.Gupta has forcefully forecasted of the dramatic elections and unexpected results. So, he means to say Deuba Congress will win the majority seats in the house. But, How? It is quite interesting. Peoples are not in favor of Deuba even then, he is claiming to win elections. It means there may be a plot against democracy. Otherwise, it is not possible in the rule of law. Peoples support is essential to steer the helm of the state.

Amid those allegations Mr. Deuba has expressed his full committed for free and fair elections. King Gyanendra has reiterated his unswerving conformity for democracy and non-interfering elections. But the country is not prepared for the elections. Security is chaotic. Peoples are apathetic to the elections not only because they could not lead a better life even after a decade long democracy but they never be guaranteed of the minimal security. Citizens are fed up with the day-to-day carnage. Vulnerable security system is there anxiety. The mountaineering corruptions is their another worry. But all the successive governments are indifferent with the public concerns rather their motto is just how to glue in the chair for the longest period. People aspirations and the conducts of the government always remain antagonistic. The aspirations of taciturn citizen and conducts of their government are not coinciding. This is portent of the democracy in the susceptible phage.

In 1960, the founding father of Nepali Congress Party B.P.Koirala was the prime minister and the party commanded two-third majority in the parliament. After one and half year of Koirala rule, when late King Mahendra dismissed the parliamentary system and imposed autocratic rule, people were mum in home. It means, people were not in favor of the government, rather, waiting for the change. Otherwise, amid the full supports of the majority of the subjects, royal coup couldn't have been materialized. Similar was the condition of Pakistan. In the last parliamentary elections, Mr. Nawaz Sharif claimed to have had more than two-third majority. But, just after a couple of years, he was dethroned by his own army general without a drop of bloodshed. It means Mr. Sharif commanded majority just inside the parliament but not in the heart of his constituents. So, he failed. Commanding majority in the parliament can never be the only touchstone to measure the peoples' support to their government and the system rather their internal aspirations are the must.

Unfair conduct and minimal participation in the elections is more than enough for the hurt of democracy. Thus, at this particular juncture, our prime concerns must be to conduct free and fair elections with maximum people's participation. The first step for that is formation of the all-party election government, which is possible within our current Constitution. If the Prime Minister resigns voluntarily or forced to leave, the formation of all-parties election government can be. Otherwise, none could guarantee of the democracy in the future.

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