I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s

Organized politics disorganized!

Kathmandu: Every body is using the Carrot and Stick. The Maoists dangle the interim government demand for talks but the army says their build-up is poised for a major movement. On the ground the Maoists ask support for a final push. The government conceives of the possibility of pulling in party leaders for contact with the insurgents but privately do not rule out the possibility of a third option to party unity. The Girija group an the UML openly discuss the disaster-imminent the subjudice case for the reinstitution of the parliament turns against them but yet privately prepare for the polls.

If any thing, multi-pronged opportunism on part of the political sector has permeated further to the smaller Sadbhavana and the RPP parties. The Sadbhavana, for example, is said to be set on resolving their leadership issue by co-opting Minister Jay Prakash Gupta "Anand" as their leader. The RPP has now made open its own vertical rifts. Chairman Surya Bahadur Thapa is finding his attempts to break rules for a third term blatantly challenged by its grass-roots itself.

All these contribute to heightening the fluidity. The administrative machinery has ground to a halt. Politics at the moment is so enmeshed with politicking that no policy emanates from government. The people at large have ceased to turn to the political leaders for a solution. Where government prevails it is by and large the Royal Nepal Army that is said to be delivering. Curiously, this delivery is in the Maoists affected areas. There is non-delivery, it is said, in areas considered to be Maoists free.

As the government is not running firstly, in anticipation of Supreme Court decisions; secondly, awaiting Election Commission's decisions and, now, thirdly, watching the effects of the latest Maoists moves. The country finds itself at the standstill awaiting a precipitation of a major crisis made by the political sector to be broken by the "non-political" sector.

It is this reality that must be made politics of. Both Deuba and Koirala would make benefit of the Army and the King. The UML too is not to lag behind. And the Maoists would rather dump the problem solely as of the Army and the King's making.

Willy-nilly thus, the stalemate finds the King in the center with the organized political forces anticipating and, thus, fearing His intervention. And so, between now and the Maoists' set deadline two months hence an anti-monarchy campaign which includes the Carrot and Stick may be anticipated.

Box News Analysis:

The "two" who dictate Nepali politics to swing their ways!

Kathmandu: The UML's General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal is a shrewd politician indeed.

His shrewdness has no parallels.

He is at the moment dictating Nepali politics to swing his way and this he has been doing since the unceremonious fall of the Koirala-cracy in government some twelve months back.

Interestingly, the nation is following his way of Nepali politics.

It was UML's Madhav Nepal who created panic in the Koirala camp when he and his party pushed the matter of the Lauda air scam and paralysed the entire 19th session of the parliament until Koirala decided to quit. Albeit in the whole process of "throw Koirala out campaign" he was assisted exposedly by the Deuba-Bhattarai combine.

Now when Deuba is in power, Madhav Nepal at times exhibits his political preference for Koirala instead of Deuba whom he had sided during Koirala Hatao campaign.

However, Koirala is mistaken when he takes Madhav Nepal's political utterances for granted. In effect, Madhav Nepal is a communist for whom his party's political benefits were of prime concern. Unlike the congress which sees political benefits in personal rise and fall, the communists wish to take advantages from the worst scenario even.

Koirala camp feels pleased when Madhav Nepal says that he is against Deuba's sudden dissolution of the parliament and considers that Madhav Nepal and his party were all in his favor at least in matters related to the criticisms being made against Deuba.

However, the fact is that Madhav Nepal while criticizes Deuba for the dissolution of the parliament, he equally exhibits his interest in facing the challenges of the elections. Koirala and his group is yet to decide whether or not to take part in the elections.

Interestingly, Madhav Nepal and his party till today have never uttered a word against the Monarchy after the dissolution of the parliament. The Koirala camp, on the other, have been casting aspersions on the monarch and hold the monarch and the army responsible behind the curtain for the dissolution of the parliament.

For Koirala the number one enemy in the present scheme of things is Deuba and the constitutional monarch which according to him the latter should have consulted other political parties prior to the dissolution of the parliament.

Madhav Nepal and his party have remained cautious in hurling irritating remarks against the constitutional monarchy. Here lies the UML's political maneuverability and grasping the real strength of the monarch who has just returned from his India and China trips. The UML apparently has concluded that the constitutional monarch is now in a better position strength-wise after his trips to China and India.

The Koirala and his coterie men apparently have not taken cognizance of this clear fact. Here lies their sheer weakness in grasping the changing political equations both within and without.

The UML and its leaders are in knowledge that over these democratic years, the people have already developed a sort of allergy for the leaders and hence their loyalty is now shifting from the politicians to non-political sector, for example, the constitutional monarchy for obvious reasons. The UML sees that constitutional monarchy is still a formidable force and hence wishes to fair smoothly with an already strengthened monarch.

The Koirala and his men brush aside this increasing reality.

The UML and its leader Madhav Nepal wish the Maoists imbroglio sorted out peacefully but not during Deuba's tenure. They wish it to come to an end when they were in power after the elections. This means that the UML is all set to face the elections and hopes to emerge with flying colors in the elections. This also hints at the fact that the UML does not wish the Maoists competing in the elections for understandable reasons. The UML apparently concludes that should the Maoists face the elections, they would do so at the cost of the UML voters which means that they will have reduced number of seats in the parliament which finally means that the Maoists participation at the elections will mean UML not forming a majority government.

The UML will not take any risk that blocks their party in forming a majority government.

The UML very cleverly tells the Maoists not to disturb the elections. But the UML does not invite the Maoists to participate in the elections. This is interesting.

The Koirala camp presumably is closer to the Maoists only to harass their political rival Deuba and his party.

Summing up, political pundits opine that the nation now possessed only two leaders who had been swinging the country's politics in their favored ways. Firstly it was Madhav Nepal and secondly it is Prachanda.

To recall, Prachanda's statements that appear at regular intervals forces the countrymen to ponder over and analyze the contents contained therein in his statements. This way he is maneuvering the nation's politics indeed.

Strip News Analysis:

Contradictory statements galore from Maoists quarters!

Kathmandu: The Maoist leader Prachanda alias Puspa Kamal Dahal is in the news these days.

He is in the news because his two fresh statements, rather contradictory ones, contain both carrot and stick for the Deuba establishment.

In his previous statement, Prachanda said among others that his party will not settle for less other than an interim arrangement and the election to the Constituent Assembly. The statement possessed some very tight words for the establishment and the army and also had mentioned the reasons behind his call for a Nepal Closure on September 16.

The latest statement received by a host of Nepali newspapers dated July 18 from the Maoists quarters now indicates that they too were willing to come to the talks provided an all acceptable interim arrangement was there which will conduct the elections.

According to this statement, the Maoists insurgency too wished for a viable solution to the imbroglio.

What could be grasped from Prachanda's statement is that the insurgency too wished a safe-landing by way of talks with the establishment.

The government suspects the new moves of the insurgency and maintains that talks were only possible if the Maoists leaders laid down their guns and bullets. The Maoists would perhaps not agree to the government's preconditions for the resumption of the talks.

Analyzing the whole political scenario three things come to the fore which demand deep analysis. Firstly, why Prachanda is a changed person now and what factors prompted him to change his previous hardened posture?

Secondly, should the matter of handing over of the guns or for that matter the bullets what the insurgents have in their possession be a problem for the talks in between the establishment and the Maoists? Can the talks not proceed even if they have the guns with them? Similarly, what is the harm in handing over the guns and the bullets before coming to the talks if the insurgents were really serious in having meaningful dialogues with the government?

And thirdly, will the Deuba establishment initiate talks with the Maoists under the prevailing circumstances more so when His Majesty the King himself has recently dubbed the insurgent leaders as "terrorists"?

There is a political sector here which claims that since the insurgency has faced several set-backs after the imposition of the emergency and their skilled men killed in attacks of the army, the insurgency has become weaker and hence the changed stance of the Maoists supremo Prachanda.

However, the fact could be otherwise. A group of media men upon return from the Western Nepal apparently have hinted that the insurgency had become not that weak as some one in Kathmandu might have calculated for unexplainable reasons. This group instead have reiterated that the insurgency was still stronger in that area and might retaliate in even more challenging manner.

Yet another section of political scientists see no point in government's condition for laying down the arms prior to attending the talks. They say that if there is honesty and seriousness on both the sides, laying down of the arms or not prior to the talks do not matter much.

"The government must not lose sight at this juncture when the insurgents wish to attend the talks, it should facilitate their attending the talks at any cost", said a political analyst.

He further said that the government must heed to the appeals of the common men including a host of political parties of the nation who wish the Maoists imbroglio ending up in a peaceful manner with the talks between the two warring rivals-the government's security forces and the Maoists insurgents.

Our own high placed sources claim that the government has already made the move in this regard. "If it is so then it is definitely a good news for all of us", opined another intellectual when our analyst revealed this to him.

To recall, Madhav Nepal is also of the view that the government should resume talks with the insurgents and not force the other camp to lay down their arms.

What factors could have prompted Prachanda to change his former strong stance?

Firstly, it could have analysed that theirs staying in neighboring India were an impossibility now because the Indian establishment has apparently hinted Nepal that they would go to any extent in handing over the Maoists leaders back to Nepal. To recall, the speed of handing over the Maoists insurgents back to Nepal by the Indian security forces has increased specially after King Gyanendra's India visit, Secondly, Prachanda might have calculated that it would be very opportune moment to capture as many parliamentary seats as they can in the impending elections and hence might have talked of an interim arrangement at the center which apparently included theirs involvement in the government that would presumably conduct the elections.

( To recall, Kathmandu based Indian diplomat Mr. Ashok Kumar recently hinted that his government would promptly hand over the Maoists leaders should the Nepali leaders told the Indian government about the whereabouts of the Maoists leaders now residing in India whom the Nepali politicians meet quite often. Should this mean that the process of handing over of the Maoists leaders will take a new speed after the conclusion of the widely publicized Indian foreign minister's visit to Kathmandu?

The Indian diplomat's avowal also implies that the Nepali leaders knew more of the Maoists leaders' stay in India than the Indian government's intelligence itself? Is it possible? Or is it a design to shift the burden onto the Nepali side! Sophisticated Indian diplomacy indeed!

Is it that Prachanda has thought of this possibility well in advance?

Thirdly, it could be that Prachanda might have thought of the growing international support to Nepal both in cash and kind against their insurgency and hence might have convinced his supporters that for the time being it would be beneficial for the party to enter into the mainstream and then shake the very foundations of the system from within.

All said and done' what is clear is that the Maoists now wish to resume the talks. The fact is also that the government too is willing to go in for talks but evades direct involvement. The fact is that all the Nepalese people wish the government and the Maoists talk and restore normalcy in the Kingdom.

The entire international community also apparently wishes the talks to continue. This was the message of the London Meet of the international community which was held last month to pledge support to this country in order to contain the threats of the Maoists insurgency.

Telegraph adds: Be that as it may, the Maoists quarter has yet to spell out as to what would happen to their already declared Nepal Closure of September 16 if the government initiated talks with them? Does this mean that if the talks resumed, the September 16 Bundh will automatically cease or just the otherwise? It is time that the Maoists clarify these matters or else confusion will be replaced by utter confusion.

Miscellaneous:

Pondering over Deuba's performance!

Kathmandu: Is Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba performing as he should have after the dissolution of the parliament is a big question boggling the minds of the intellectuals here.

He is definitely performing but not for the nation and is instead concentrating his entire efforts for the strengthening of his new splinter congress party of which he is claiming to be its president.

He has his followers with him as well.

As the nation's prime minister neither he appears to be interested in inviting the Maoists for the talks nor he has been able to convince the country men that the elections declared by him would take place at al on time.

Albeit, the nation's law and order situation has worsened more specifically after the stabbing to death of a couple in Kathmandu's Ranibari last week whose killers are still at large. Add to this the bombing of his own party's office in Baneshwar by some miscreants whose details are yet to come to the open officially.

And now the sudden swelling of the Nepali rivers and the rivulets in practically all parts of the Kingdom due to the monsoon rain and the colossal damages it has caused since Sunday afternoon. The government claims that it is with the flood-hit population but the affected ones say that nothing so far has been made by the government to alleviate their concerns.

The fact is that Prime Minister Deuba is, it seems, in a mood to tour the country with his cabinet ministers in order to attract the attention of the congressmen who were siding with him after the vertical split in the congress party. In the process prime minister Deuba and his cabinet colleagues are misusing the government resources and authority which they should not have done keeping in mind the election-ethics.

To recall, the Election Commission has already issued some do's and don'ts for the government and the parties participating in the competition until the elections but the government side appears not to have taken the EC's dictates in a serious manner.

Interestingly, Prime Minister Deuba wears national dress as and when he meets the officials of the government during his tour. He could be seen in Kurta-Surwal when he is meeting his party colleagues.

Dress matter less, say his critics. He is the nation's prime minister even if he is in a fancy dress. What matters is that he is at both the meetings is escorted by the band of the official security men which in effect clearly hints that he is the prime minister of the country and not only the president of the party.

The international community has already hinted that Nepal needed a strong personality to steer the nation which implied that the said community now concludes that Deuba is a sinking horse who could neither steer the nation nor could deliver as per the wishes of the people within and without.

However, the fact that can't be overlooked is that the entire nation is in a standstill because of the SC's delaying in the announcement of its verdict pertaining to the dissolution of the parliament and the EC's explanation as to which of the two Congress' parties should be awarded with the Tree and the flag as symbols.

The unnecessary delay in the announcement of SC's and the EC's verdict has allowed the prime minister to strengthen his party in the districts and this is what he is doing at the moment.

Not very surprisingly then the prime minister should tour the country with his cabinet members caring little about the nation's affairs.

In essence Prime Minister Deuba could have left some ministers in Kathmandu to devise ways and means on how to minimize the plight of the flood affected people in the districts and in the capital as well and also to look after the deteriorating law and order situation of the country including Kathmandu.

Intellectuals question what would have been the fate of Deuba and his newly formed party had he been not the nation's prime minister?

A fortunate Deuba managed every thing for him in the party and for his splinter group while he is the nation's prime minister.

By way of reference, question could also be asked as to what would happen to his party after the elections presumably when he would not be the nation's prime minister?

Should this mean that the longevity and the sustainability of Deuba's congress will much depend on how long Deuba continues to be the prime minister?

Being in power counts much but yet we leave the rest to the perusal of the political analysts to debate over what would happen to Deuba's party when he ceases to be the prime minister.

Political pundits advise Deuba to act and deliver and enhance his own image instead of accusing Koirala and his congress for their previous blunders if any. Damaging further the image of his former mentor might please his current followers to a greater extent but can't win the hearts of the lay men who have nothing to do with their internal party clashes.

To recall, the US Administration too has hinted the same through a statement made last week.

Thapa favors Chand for RPP presidency!

Kathmandu: A sort of fierce debate is on in the party of the former Panchayati stalwarts, the RPP, who have yet to decide on whether to convene their party's convention prior to the elections or after.

Sources close to the RPP say that a committee formed under the convenorship of Lokendra Bahadur Chand has recommended that the RPP convention be held after listening to the Supreme Court's verdict on the dissolution of the parliament.

The SC is to announce its verdict two weeks from hence.

RPP stalwarts like Dr. Lohani, P.Rana, R.Sharma and P.S. Lawti apparently have hinted that they would contest for the post of the RPP presidency.

Sources inside the RPP say that Thapa, the incumbent president of the party himself is a candidate for the same but party rules and regulation bar him for contesting the elections for the third time.

In case Thapa is not allowed to become the president of the party this round, he might then push the name of his disciple Dr. Lohani. This means that Thapa would not wish Pashupati Rana to take over as next RPP president.

The plan, maintain sources, is to elevate the ranks of Lokendra Chand should Dr. Lohani's candidacy come under debate.

Not very surprisaingly, Chand and Thapa find themselves comfortably closer to each other for unknown reasons.

To recall, Chand and Thapa were declared enemies once upon a time which later prompted Chand to form his own party. Later Chand merged his party in the mainstream RPP.

Be that as it may, the impending days more so after the SC's verdict will decide the course of the RPP politics.

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