I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Fluid strategies in fluid situation!

Kathmandu: It looks like the attempt in the Girija camp of the Nepali congress is to prolong decisions to embarrass Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. It looks like the attempt in the Deuba camp is to precipitate decisions. A precipitation will allow Deuba to decide his "political" future course. A prolongation becomes thus a "strategy" to prevent that decision. The China visit has aided Koirala thus.

Already Deuba has summoned district chairmen and national convention members to explain his points. Already Koirala has dispatched his workers to districts to explain his points. Both strategies will come to naught unless some one gives in. In other words the breaking points exist. But the break has no occurred.

Meanwhile, Nepali politics diverts this conflict, as usual, to the Palace. Longstanding differences within the congress is no hidden secret. Girija, however, sees the usual Palace hand behind the Deuba move. Koirala has launched the "democracy under threat" bogey. The UML follows suit. Deuba pleads that it is unchecked insurgency and high-handed congress politics that threatens democracy.

The logic here is lost amidst the partisan media and the intelligentsia taking sides as usual. The media is losing money in the emergency and is cashing in on the threat concept. The intelligentsia refuses to acknowledge the Maoists threat to strengthen its modernist credibility.

Obviously, the security forces battling the insurgency are left non-plusses at the adamant posture of our politicians who are unable to visit constituencies and restore confidence in the civic society. The skepticism regarding the ability of our political sector to comprehend reality for very parochial purposes is rampant.

Willy-nilly, the Palace is once again brought to the center and the scare on this account is real. It is forgotten in the process that the crisis is of the politician's own making. The leader of the majority parliamentary party dissolves House according to the constitution and the constitutional monarch can't but oblige. The parliament can only be dissolved if the Prime Minister seeks a fresh mandate among the people within six months of the dissolution and so Deuba can't but call for the polls.. There is no room under the constitution for the King to play politics with these decisions. Both this is lost in the current statements.

The fact is that conspiracy theories can divert attention from reality. The party under Girija must dislodge for Koirala to assume power. Koirala thus takes a stand against the emergency when it becomes clear that Deuba would rather re-impose it. Koirala is in cognizance with the UML's stand against the emergency. And so Deuba outmaneuvers both to dissolve parliament when he has his parliamentary majority.

This simple fact must be covered up and the Palace becomes a convenient target for this. It is this that must be deplored. A gleeful UML confident of an election majority after reunification of the party has precipitated a skilful crisis in the congress. It is not immune from the habit of raising the threat concept too. And it may well benefit from salvaging its grassroots usurped by the Maoists to talk to the Maoists and go to the polls. Indeed, it has gone a step further in the scare tactics to warn of the consequences if the polls don't take place. Both Koirala and the UML are likely to question the results of the polls if they do take place. The Maoists of course, see things coming their ways whether they disrupt the polls or form covered alliance retaining their insurgent postures.

Congress heading towards a vertical split

Kathmandu: The fight-to-finish battle within the Congress party is already in its advanced stage.

The party is on the verge of a vertical split should the leaders in both the camps do not exhibit wisdom and that too at the earliest. Both the camps remain adamant in their already declared standpoints.

The Koirala camp is determined to take penal actions, come what may, against its own party prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba for his alleged dissolution of the parliament last week. Koirala seen in the sudden dissolution of the House a "grand design" to sabotage the democratic system. Deuba rebukes those allegations.

Koirala camp maintains that by dissolving the parliament Deuba has exceeded his functions and hence he should be taught a lesson.

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba on the contrary wishes to teach a befitting lesson to his political rival, Koirala, for the latter's unwarranted expulsion from the very primary membership of the party for three years.

Both the camps are on the move to give a concrete shape to their fresh political overtures.

In the process, Koirala has sent his special "'emissaries" to the districts wherein the team will convince the congressmen that whatever Deuba did in the recent days and weeks were all aimed at weakening democratic system and hence his expulsion had become a must. A four page leaflet published recently by the Koirala lobby explains the reasons behind taking penal actions against Deuba.

Sher Bahadur Deuba remains undeterred and says he will face the Girija challenge from within the party. The idea is to summon the NC General convention and put pressure on Koirala to take the actions back. But then sources close to Koirala camp reveal that to summon this highest organ of the party Deuba needs signatures of about 40% of the total convention members which apparently the latter can't garner in his favor. If this is so then Deuba's hands are tied.

He however, possesses yet another card under his sleeve and that being pushing a no confidence against the party president in the said convention for which he needs only 25% signatures of the total members of the convention. Insiders say that this percentage is easily available for Deuba at the moment.

If this is so then what is for sure is that Deuba would in all likelihood push his no confidence motion against Koirala to put excessive pressure on the president. This lobby believes that Koirala out of fear from being summarily dislodged as party president might yield to Deuba demands.

But then yet question remains: What is the guarantee that the convention members will extend their support to Deuba? Will not by time the convention decides to take up the issue of the motion Koirala maneuvers the members in his favor? For example, Koirala can seduce the members luring a sizeable chunk that he would provide election tickets ? This tactics Deuba could also play.

Be that as it may, the Deuba-Koirala conflict undoubtedly has exposed the very democratic credentials of the party. It has also brought to the fore that the Nepali congress was never a united party in its truest sense of the term. The present conflict also makes it abundantly clear that the ongoing fight in between the two political creatures is not based on ideological grounds but instead merely a personality clash.

With president Koirala not in the country, the congress conflict will take a new turn upon his return. However, the options are limited. The congress will have to chose between a Koirala congress or a Deuba congress? The number of Deuba supporters in the party is surprisingly increasing which definitely bodes ill for president Koirala.

Unless a miracle saved the party from a split, the split appears imminent.

But yet the fact is that the NC possesses a very high degree of shock-absorbing capacity and hence to predict that the party would split will be sheer foolishness.

The Nov.13 election will not be that easy for UML

Kathmandu: The United Marxists-Leninists party, the UML, has already geared up its activities for the November 13 elections. In the process the party only the other day has instructed its workers and activists to proceed towards their respective constituencies and handle the local situations in a manner that benefits the party at time of the polls.

The UML has done so visibly keeping in mind the present fierce battle in the congress hoping that the prolongation of the congress tussle will surely benefit the party. When the UML thinks so or arrives at this conclusion then it is only but natural. The UML assumption is that since the congress is already a weakened and battered political force and that their own party has just witnessed unification and thus victory at the polls could easily be predicted.

The UML's assumptions are not baseless. The fact is that the congress, the main rival of the UML, is under tremendous stress with chances of even a vertical split. The fact is also that the UML after the reunification with the ML has definitely become a formidable force.

But yet one has to watch how the voters in the villages and districts view the UML's overall performance over the years. Has the party lived up to the aspirations of the people back in the villages? Has the party behaved in a manner befitting to the main opposition in the parliament? Has the party not added fuel to the fire in the congress previous and the continuing tussles? And finally, has the party not enjoyed financial benefits at time when Nepal had a communist government? Questions galore indeed.

Analysing the UML's role as an effective opposition in the parliament, analysts say that the UML too could not prove its mettle and hence remained at par with that of the congress.

Instead of considering that the power conflict in its rival party would in many ways than one destabilize the system, the UML rather opted to take sides in the congress tussle and exhibited that it was aligned to a particular cam. However, at yet another conflict in the congress, the UML changed its sides and flared up the whole conflict. In effect, the present crisis in the congress has some connections to the UML's "weaken the congress" politics.

The UML is yet to clarify its very motive and intentions for effecting constitutional reforms. The party practically took a neutral posture vis-à-vis the Maoists imbroglio in which it should have pressed forcefully both the warring sides to come to the table and restore peace and tranquility in the Kingdom. But it preferred to watch the battle from a distance.

Albeit, the UML political overtures remained confined either to defame Koirala for Lauda scam or criticize Deuba for having dissolved the parliament. Add to this the party for namesake lambasted at the successive congress governments for having failed to provide good governance.

The party even suspected Deuba's trip abroad. The UML joined the chorus with Koirala and reiterated that Nepal had already become a playground of the foreign forces.

The party's past three years performance in the parliament and outside gave an impression that the UML too had nothing to do with the country's pressing problems but instead had an eye on how to bounce back to the power corridors. In the process it sided with Deuba and next with Koirala. However, the fact is that neither Koirala nor Deuba trusted their credentials.

If the present UML leadership thinks that the lay men in the districts and villages will give the party a red carpet welcome at time of the elections would be a wishful thinking only.

If congress gave a very bad name to the system, the UML has also to share a chunk of the blame.

Political scientists opine that the UML has lost its former aura and its people oriented image.

In absence of the aura and with an already lost credibility in the eyes of its voters the UML apparently will have a tough time at time of the polls.

It remains yet to be seen how the party devises schemes to lure the people again and win back their confidence in order to emerge with flying colors.

What if the elections are not held on time!

Kathmandu: "A government that differed the local level elections for fear of Maoists insurgency, how could the same government conduct the general elections?"—Nepali Congress.

"It is now immaterial why Deuba declared elections, what is important is that the elections should be held on time"—UML

"The elections will be held as per the schedule. Nothing to panic"-PM Deuba.

" We will face the challenge of the elections"'-The RPP

If one were to analyze these three separate statements which revolve around the impending election, what comes to light is that except the congress, the rest of the political parties appear confident about the happening of the election and that they all were in a mood to face the challenge bravely.

Albeit, most of the parties have hinted that should the elections do not take place on the stipulated time, the country would plunge into a constitutional crisis of Himalayan dimension whose consequences would be terribly bad both for the system and the country.

When one carefully examines the NC statement, one finds that the declaration of the elections by its own party prime minister came as a bolt from the blue. This means that the congress stalwarts were not at all prepared to face the election challenge. The reason could be that the party apparently lacks the "slogan" and "issue" to be taken to the grassroots. Moreover, the party in the statement indirectly hints that the elections could not be held on time as the Maoists threats continue to exist in the country. This implies that the constitutional crisis awaits the nation in case Deuba fails to conduct the elections on the scheduled time.

On the contrary prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba remains confident and forcefully says that he will conduct the election on time and hence there should be no panic in the political sector.

Deuba's bold observations mean that he will avert the constitutional crisis by conducting the elections on time.

According to 1990 constitution if the elections are not held on time, the role of the constitutional monarch becomes very important then. The political sector suspects that it would be this time that the monarch can play an "active" role in the scheme of country's political things obtaining then. However, except the congress and the UML no other party has so far uttered about the possibility of such a situation.

Interesting is the fact that the Maoists have kept a silence and have not spelt out their comments on elections.

It could be that the insurgents leaders be studying the various political moves and countermoves of the Nepal's political sector which apparently remains divided over the issue of the elections.

Determined are the UML and the RPP, comparatively speaking. In effect, both parties expect a windfall for their party at time of the election because of the present congress internal squabble.

RPP, for example, is expecting double the number of seats what it had in the now dissolved parliament for obvious reasons. Unconfirmed reports have it that the UML has clandestinely assured the RPP of at least 45 seats should the latter form an electoral alliance with the former. If it is so then it would definitely be a major gain for the RPP. However, a section of the RPP stalwarts opine that the UML can't be trusted on such matters.

"Given the congress infighting and the UML's past lip services to the people's grievances, the RPP has a better chance to bag sizeable number of seats in the next parliament. Comparatively speaking, the RPP as a party has done better than the congress and the UML", said a RPP stalwart.

Yet another unconfirmed report hints that the UML has already sent signals to the Maoists camp to form an electoral alliance with the party.

The Maoists leadership has yet to respond to the UML's fresh election overtures.

Be that as it may, Deuba avowal of conducting the elections on time will much depend on how the Maoists take up the declaration of the election itself. If the rebels opt to disturb the elections, they can do so easily. However, if they acquire positive posture would not only mean the completion of the elections on time but also saving the country from going to the brink as hinted by leaders of the congress and the UML.

The Maoists stance on the elections thus becomes highly significant.

SC's verdict on House dissolution crucial

Kathmandu: The number of writ petitions being filed in Nepal's apex court demanding the reinstatement of the dissolved parliament is increasing. With this is increasing the rift in between the Koirala and the Deuba camp who appear hell bent on damaging each other's political career.

Last week some enthusiasts supposedly close to Koirala camp filed the petition at the SC whose hearing will take place soon.

In their bid to embarrass Deuba further, the former parliamentarians of the dissolved house supposedly close to Koirala camp are all set to file yet another writ petition demanding the resumption of the parliament. The number of the signatories in this case exceeds fifty, sources reveal.

Meanwhile, there has been a debate going in Kathmandu's political circuit about the SC's possible verdict.

Independent observers claim that the SC can decide both way: it can favor Prime Minister's decision by stating that in a democracy the dissolution of the House were the "prerogative" of the chief of the executive. If this does happen would mean Deuba emerging like a roaring lion.

On the other hand, the SC can revert the Prime Ministerial decision by stating that solutions to the problems then faced by the prime minister could have been best found without dissolving the parliament and hence Deuba should have faced the parliament.

If this does happen would mean a Koirala emerging as a victor for all time to come which might enhance his already sunken credibility in the party.

What if the SC's verdict goes against Deuba? In that scenario, a weakened and pretty annoyed Deuba might yet again rush to the Palace and convince the monarch for yet another dissolution. If this does happen then surely a crisis of different sort will immediately grip the nation. But prior to Deuba's another try for dissolving the parliament, will not the Koirala camp push no confidence motion against their party prime minister?

Those who understand Koirala better say that his camp will watch each and every move of the prime minister so that the latter could be relieved much ahead of any would be disaster occurring once more.

Will not in that case the Deuba camp will devise some other equally powerful schemes to foil the efforts of the other camp?

Possibilities galore indeed.

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