I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Soldiers to carry politicians to countryside!

Kathmandu: As expected, tussle in the congress continues with Chairman Koirala setting a date soon for a Central Committee meeting and Prime Minister Deuba setting the agenda for the congress Convention meeting. The election commission, hinting at the possibility of phase-wise elections has dead lined the last date for registration of new parties. The Supreme Court has set dates for discussion on the plea registered against the dissolution of the House. All these suggest the critical fluidity as yet of Nepal's constitutional process. The fact is that the constitution's unique mention of the political parties in the country has contributed repeatedly to constitutional crisis when the political parties demonstrate internal rifts. The constitutional crisis prevails.

At this juncture His Majesty the King's widely publicized and widely welcomed and commented upon interview stresses that a constitutional monarch does in no case mean "indifference" to an unproductive political situation of which, He admits, has been made amply aware. While the King's preference for the constitutional process to work, his amply stresses in the official media interviews he has made "meaningful" comments regarding both his "awareness" and his "'commitments" to the good of the "people".

Perhaps the changed mood among the people has been sensed in both the official media coverage and its hapless acceptance by an otherwise habitually critical and suspicious political sector.

It is this political sector that is readying for the polls now that the King himself has said to do away with the hints to the contrary.

The UML is , of course, is the first to take this direction amidst disarray in the congress and confidence boosted by its reunification with the ML. This strategy conveniently serves to hide the UML's compulsions to regain its grassroots otherwise sliding to the Maoists. It is this compulsion also that suggests a possible alignment at that level.

The congress on the other hand have yet to take up that challenge unanimously. Much is being made of Chairman Koirala's rush from Beijing to New Delhi. Of course, Koirala would like to make it a private family trip. The fact is that he has made contacts with the Indian leadership among others. At this juncture this is important regardless of his denials in Kathmandu on meeting the Maoists' top-hats.

Curiously the RPP has gone a step ahead. It has Chairman S.B.Thapa cast aspersions on the nature of the elections demanding that the polls be free. This demand had not been heard of in previous elections despite the belated admission of the UML that the previous polls had not been free. This, despite UML participation in the last election-government.

At the popular level, however, the turbulence of politics is being met by virtual nonchalance. The inadequacy of security personnel at the grassroots continues to make the Maoists presence felt. The political parties have exhausted their presence at that level. This suggest that it is the security personnel who will have to bear the burden of carrying "piggy-back" our "delicate" politicians to the countryside.

S T R I P  N E W S  A N A L Y S I S
Congress' fate hangs in balance!

Kathmandu: By this time it should have become pretty clear to all and sundry that the biggest enemy of the congress party is its own activists, workers and more specifically speaking, its own top-hats.

President Koirala under the instigation of its notorious coterie remains firm in his decision that expelled prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba from the party for three years.

Prime Minister Deuba and his equally notorious band of "strategists" wish to teach a befitting lesson to president Koirala come June 16.

In the process the congress as a party appears to be heading for a vertical split.

To recall, the day Koirala arrived Kathmandu from his most criticized trip to New Delhi had hinted that since Deuba had as per the rule of the party appealed for repealing the action taken against him by the party so the party could think on his appeal.

But then suddenly he changed his stance overnight and now he has been telling his colleagues that except lifting up of the action taken against Deuba he was ready to do any thing that ensures party unity.

The other camp led by Deuba too aired that the June 16 meeting of the NC Convention called by them would summarily decide the fate of the present president of the party.

The idea is to, said a Deubaite, first convene the meeting of the Maha Samiti on June 16 which in turn would unanimously request president Koirala to free Deuba from the disciplinary action which if accepted would mean Koirala will continue as the party president and if the latter remains adamant then the Convention members will declare that Koirala ceases to function as party's president.

The former speaker and home minister Ram Chandra Poudel is all set to replace Koirala and will act as "acting" president.

The June 16 meeting of the Convention has already been called by the Deuba faction of the congress.

Not very surprisingly, the Koirala lobby of the congress through a notice issued by the party Monday has described the summoning of the Convention by the Deuba faction as unconstitutional and hence has told the Convention members not to get swayed by the other camp's seductions.

To add to this, in his fresh bid to torture Deuba even further, president Koirala has declared that he would go in for a month long nationwide tour in order to get the people's views on how they think of the country's situation more so after the dissolution of the House and the declaration of the polls in November.

The fact is that Koirala wishes to kill two birds with one stone. In remaining out of Kathmandu he will have two benefits: firstly, he will not have to convene the congress central committee which could, if summoned, rethink over the indisciplinary action taken against Deuba if pressed by the June 16 convention invited by Deuba and his supporters. If he is himself out of the valley there is no question of the CC pressing him hard; Secondly, Koirala hopes that by time he concludes his nationwide tour in a month or so, Deuba's chances of registering a new party will have lapsed.

To recall, if Deuba wishes to form a new party of his own then as per the instructions of the Election Commission he should do it well within three weeks of time from hence.

Koirala will return from his tour immediately after the registration time lapses.

Regarding the June 16 NC convention summoned by the Deuba camp is concerned, the Koiralaites say that Deuba requires two-third of the total to rally in his favor which he has not able to garner. If it is so then the June 16 convention will merely be a fiasco. However, the Deuba camp says that it has the needed numbers which is sufficient for Koirala's ouster as party's president.

But what if the Supreme Court reverts Deuba's decision and gives life to the dissolved parliament?

Both the camps in the congress are apparently ready to face the emerging scenario then.

While Deuba camp wishes to seduce 40% of the parliamentary party members and form a new party, on the other, the Koirala camp would without losing even a single second wish to push the no-confidence motion against the prime minister. IN that scenario, it would be really interesting to watch as to who maneuvers whom and with what speed?

The EC require 40% of the total number from the parliamentary party to get registered as a new party. In case the party splits, there would again be a problem with the party's flag and symbol at time of the election. Undoubtedly, both the factions would claim that theirs was the real and original party.

The fight will thus continue for long.

Analyzing all these sad political overtures going in the congress, the party's fate still hangs in balance.

Much now depends upon president Koirala and his impending political moves. Whether he opts to contain the issue or add fuel to the fire will determine the fate of the congress party.

Pondering over Koirala's mysterious Delhi trip

Kathmandu: "Nepal's Maoists are terrorists"- Indian foreign minister Jaswant Singh.

"India will support Nepal in her bid to fight Maoists terrorism"'-Indian Prime Minister Bajpayee talking over telephone with his Nepali counterpart last week.

"If we come to power, we can have working relations with neighboring India"'-Prachanda in his statement issued some months back.

"I appreciate the jobs accomplished by the Nepali army in their bid to fight with the Maoists rebels in the mountains"-Indian COAS after visiting some Maoists affected areas in western Nepal during his freshly concluded Nepal visit.

"I can mediate between Girija babu and the Maoists leaders"-India's defense minister George Fernandes reported in some newspapers.

"Koirala reportedly met Maoists leaders this time in Delhi"-Nepali media reports.

A careful analysis of the above mentioned captions forces us to conclude that the India factor can't be dismissed if one were to handle Nepal's Maoists issue.

But why it is that the Indian establishment that dubs Nepal's Maoists as terrorists apparently provides political shield to the latter?

For example, what inference the Nepalese people could draw from Fernandez's expression who reportedly assured Girija babu that he could mediate between Koirala and the Maoists leaders?

Should the Nepali people take George as an individual or as a powerful minister in the present Indian cabinet?

Certainly George is a sitting minister and hence his expressions regarding the Nepal's Maoists affair and his talks of mediation efforts amply gives the impression that the Indian leadership is very much close with the Maoists leadership who were reportedly residing in India.

To recall, it was this George Fernandez who during Koirala's Premiership around 1994 had sneaked into Tibet illegally and upon return had made scathing criticisms against Nepal's northern neighbor, China.

The entire arrangement for Fernandez's exclusively secret trip to Tibet then had reportedly been managed by congress' Koirala camp.

Is it that Fernandez wishes to repay the debt of his Tibet trip so that Koirala's sinking prestige in Nepal's politics gets a boost?

Is it not a matter of shame for us all that whenever a Nepali wishes to talk to another Nepali we need some alien mediators?

Equally mysterious is Koirala paying courtesy call on Indian Prime Minister in Delhi that very surprisingly has happened within minutes of the formers' conclusion of trip to China- an all time enemy of India as uttered by George Fernandez a few years back.

Surely, Bajpayee must not have sought Koirala's mediation efforts either for sorting out her border issues with China nor for restoration of normalcy in her borders with Pakistan.

If this were not so then what could have prompted Bajpayee to see Koirala-a personality whose very credentials are now being openly debated and questioned in the party he heads at the moment.

Koirala-Bajpayee meeting assumes special significance in the sense that the former has met the latter when Nepal's constitutional monarch is already scheduled to pay a State Visit to India.

To recall, in the recent days and weeks, Koirala has been dragging the monarchy into controversy specially after the dissolution of the parliament. Newspapers say that Koirala made scathing remarks against the monarch and the army while he was in Hong Kong from where he straight proceeded to Delhi.

Is there any connection in between Koirala's sudden dash to Delhi and King Gyanendra's India visit?

However, Koirala sources say that the trip was purely a non-political one.

M I S C E L L A N E O U S :
"Press freedom and democracy go together", says Prof. Kirtley

Kathmandu: The American Center , June 7, 2002, organized a talk program at its premises on the theme of "A free press with national security in times of crisis".

The speaker was an American scholar of international standing, Ms. Jane E. Kirtley.

Ms. Kirtley is the Silha Professor of Media Ethics and Law at the University of Minnesota, United States.

During her lecture, the US scholar opined that the "military and the men in the media should sit down together and discuss the issues that more often than not force them to keep a distance at times of crisis".

According to her such interactions in between the two was not only in the interest of the society but for the democratic system as well.

She, however, was of the opinion that every society had a genuine right to know the person(s) in detention by the security personnel at times of national crisis even. More so, the detention of the press men without furnishing valid reasons, continued Kirtley, forces the population to suspect the very motives of the government.

" Suppression of divergent or even diametrically opposed views is shortsightedness", added Ms. Kirtley.

"The danger of suppression of differing views is vast than allowing it to come into the open", said the US scholar.

Talking on the freedom of the press, she said that the freedom enjoyed by the press was not only in the interest of the media men but for the society as well.

"Press freedom and a democratic system go together", continued Ms. Jane Kirtley.

Telegraph adds: Prior to this program, Ms. Kirtley paid a courtesy call on the newly elected office bearers of the Federation of Nepalese Journalists.

President of the FNJ, Mr. Tara Nath Dahal greeted the US scholar and briefed about the future activities of the Federation.

Mr. N.P.Upadhyaya, the Chief Editor of the Telegraph Weekly and the Coordinator of the Foreign Relations Committee of the FNJ coordinated the whole affair.

Ms. Kirtley is already back in her country.

NEFAS to host seminar on "Security in SA"

Kathmandu: The Nepal Foundation for Advanced Studies, NEFAS, is organizing a lecture discussion program in cooperation with the Pakistan embassy early next week on the theme of " Prevailing Security Situation in South Asia".

The keynote speaker of the program is Dr. Shireen Mazari, who is a Pakistani national.

Dr. Mazari is at the moment the Director General of the Institute of Strategic Studies based in Islamabad.

To recall, Dr. Mazari was in Nepal at the invitation of the Telegraph Weekly and had presented a paper on "Political Culture" at a seminar organized by this newspaper in 1997.

During her last trip to this country, the Pakistani scholar had met Nepal's Prime Minister L.B.Chand; NC President G.P.Koirala, then minister late Gajendra Narayan Singh and other Nepali dignitaries. She had also interacted with the CNAS scholars at the T.U and was also greeted by Women's Journalists' Forum.

Pradhan is GS of Editors' Forum

Kathmandu: The Nepalese Federation of the Editors'/Publishers Forum has unanimously elected Mr. Pushpa Raj Pradhan, the editor of People's Review weekly, as its new General Secretary.

A meeting of the Federation the other day decided to bestow the prestigious responsibility of the post of General Secretary to Mr. Pradhan.

Prior to Mr. Pradhan the said post was occupied by Mr. Gopal Budathoki who only recently was elected to one of the Vice Presidents of the Federation of Nepalese Journalists.

Similarly, Mr. Paban Thapa Kuntal, the editor of the Hindu Weekly, has been awarded the post of the Finance Secretary of the Forum.

Congratulations to Mr. Pradhan and Mr. Paban Thapa.

MDG-2002, Nepal report ambitious

Kathmandu: The Millennium Development Goals, MDGs, Progress Report-2002, Nepal, was released Monday by NPC Vice Chairman Narayan Khadka.

The MDG has been prepared jointly by the government and the UNDP.

The goals cited for Nepal among others include, eradication of extreme poverty and hunger ; achieve universal primary education; promote gender equality and empower women; reduce child mortality; improve maternal health; combat HID/AIDS, Malaria and other diseases; and ensure environmental sustainability.

The high sounding goals have been brought into the open at a time when the country is in an unprecedented crisis with no sights of it coming out of the said crisis.

The MDG goals though appear serious in nature, however, the implementation part could simply be questioned because for achieving those goals the nation needs political stability which has already become a rare commodity.

Thanks that the report itself admits that " Nepal is not yet on track to achieve any of the MDGs". According to the report released Monday morning says that continued political instability; growing fiscal instability and diminishing export markets are some of the major challenges in the road to recovery.

The report is ambitious in the sense that it wishes to halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than a dollar. However, the fact is that the report itself says that "today nearly 10 million people live in absolute poverty" which implies that nearly half of the Nepali population yet continue to remain in absolute poverty.

What magic formulae would be devised by the powers-that-be and the UNDP to attain the declared goals by 2015 will have to be seriously watched.

Critics say that the ambitious goals could not be achieved during the life time of the generation now ruling the nation.

However, the efforts made in this regard by the UNDP and the concerned Nepali authorities is commendable. At least the report this time admits that Nepal is in a problem of serious nature.

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