I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Salient inter-party links important!

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is finding it difficult to get his act together. Rival Girija Prasad Koirala appears to be strong in the media and the intelligentsia. The virtual blank-out of Koirala camp activities in the government controlled media appears counterproductive. Opposition to lopsided coverage there not only emanates from the rival party, Radio Nepal, The Gorkhapatra and Nepal Television are said to be finding it difficult to secure cooperation from not only Koirala camp workers there but also UML media persons. The trend to staff these offices with party-media workers is back-lashing.

As eyes inevitably turn to King Gyanendra's India visit, domestic politics continues to retain the unreal façade provoked further by the private sector media which itself is partisan in its coverage. Deuba continues to be hounded by allegations of compromising democracy. The difference between pro-Koirala and pro-UML coverage lie merely in intensity. Curiously, the UML coverage steers clear of insinuations regarding the Monarchy while its emphasis on the elections as no option makes a difference in the standpoints.

To Deuba's credit it is this emphasis on the polls that gains his credence. The indirect UML support here impresses the isolation of Koirala camp which would seem still silent on the elections.

The strategy appears to be one of skepticism if and when the elections do take place; charges of unfairness and rigged-Musarraf type elections are now a certainty.

It will be recalled that all elections in which the Koirala family dominated Congress have participated in Nepal have been conducted under their own supervision from government.

It thus becomes clear that, despite the inceptual teething problems of the Deuba gambit, his success both organizationally and government wise will lie in the course he has taken to insist upon elections. Despite sour words from the Koirala dominated intelligentsia, Deuba is bound to capitalize from the constitutional backing of his position as a duly elected prime minister exercising his authority to dissolve cabinet on grounds of election within six-months of the dissolution.

As things stand, with all parties racing to the polls, the Koirala section's studious silence on its poll strategy will have to be watched. If the UML's foremost leap into this Deuba challenge bears equal watching, the Maoists call to take up the polls for its destroy and violence policy as stated in its latest statement would all seem to have salient under-links that should surface by time the polls do take place.

President Koirala is the loser after the vertical split !

Kathmandu: The high powered drama staged by the Nepali congress' top-hats for about a month or so has come to an end after the party witnessed a vertical split. With this inevitable split, the party that had a long history of restoring the multi-party order in the country at different intervals of time has also come to an end.

The grand divide speaks of so many things politically speaking.

Firstly the split tells thew sorry tale of the party which was basically dominated by a special Brahminic clan of the Koirala's. Secondly, the rupture also tells that when enough becomes enough some loopholes are searched to free the party from the possession of one-man or for that matter a familial rule.

Thirdly, the split also hints at the fact that a political party must allow its own second generation leaders to come up and take over the challenge and in the process the thespians ruling the party must themselves facilitate the Young Turks to replace themselves.

The party's split fourthly also indicates that should the older outmoded leadership not listen to their demands for effecting timely changes in the functioning of the party , the latter could initiate deeds that might not be in good taste for the men hanging in the party for decades and decades.

Finally, the split in the congress amply reflects that President Koirala had become pretty arrogant and had been trying to impose his familial rule in the party through the support of some of his henchmen.

This means that president Koirala is the number one defeated personality in the whole congress affair that entertained the entire globe this time.

For President Koirala, the split in his carefully nurtured party must have come as a bolt from the blue. This is simply because the split has reduced the numbers of his supporters to almost a half of the total. This should mean that not all congress party activists now would comply to his instructions or at times his orders which is what he used to do at times.

The split not only has stripped him off of his single domination in the party for decades and decades but unfortunately his credentials has been challenged by some senior members of his own party which he claims to head. For example, Shailaja Acharya, his own niece the other day said at a party meeting in Pokhara that since Koirala has become pretty old and the challenges facing the party after the split were of Himalayan dimension and hence Koirala should pleasingly quit the presidential chair.

Utterances of this sort and that too from his own family member must have been for Koirala like a bitter pill but then the fact is that Koirala is a weakened force at the moment and hence possesses no other options other than to gulp the bitter capsule.

This is not all, Mahesh Acharya and Amod Upadhyaya-both ministers in Deuba's cabinet and close relatives of Koirala, too remained with his competitor rival Deuba almost until the split was imminent. This means that even Koirala's long time tested and nearest relatives find it uncomfortable to side with Koirala all along. This finally means that Koirala's nearest and dearest ones side with him at times of crisis only because they were relatives of the president.

However, one has to applaud Koirala's penchant to push his relatives up and up. In the process Koirala not only pushed his relations like C.P.Bastola; Mahesh Acharya; Shailaja Acharya; Amod Upadhyaya; Sushil Koirala and the likes but also remained magnanimous in uplifting the personalities like B.K.Gacchedar, J.P. Gupta, K.B. Khadka who in essence were the brains behind Sher Bahadur Deuba for the fresh split in the congress.

It was Koirala's generosity, to recall, that Sher Bahadur Deuba who had practically no contribution at time of the 1990 movement, was summoned from London where he was studying under FES scholarship and told to contest the elections. Later Deuba was made home minister. The process continued till Deuba preferred to side with K.P.Bhattarai for the former felt that Bhattarai's defeat in the 1994 by-elections had been engineered by his own mentor-Koirala. Since then the two that is Koirala and Deuba differed with each other on many counts. The climax was Deuba's mysterious marriage with Mrs. Arzoo Deuba who happens to be close to Nepal's Royal family. This conjugality, Koirala camp concluded apparently that should a crisis grip the congress and the system, Deuba's loyalty would be on the other side as instructed by his new found relations.

Whether there is any truth in their wild hypothesis or were simply a tool for maligning the prestige of his rival could best be told by the Koirala camp. The fact is that Deuba's matrimonial relations has brought him closer to the Royal family. But is it a crime?

Koirala is the loser also in the sense that before and after the split, his implied remarks against the monarchy and the military force too should have widened his rifts with those two powerful institutions. In the process Koirala has lost his credibility and respect in the eyes of these two institutions which will remain ever stronger and powerful by default indeed.

Moreover, Koirala's indirect attack on the institution of the military bodes not only ill for his party but for the entire nation. An apolitical institution of the military will apparently not tolerate Koirala's outbursts against it for long, opine intellectuals.

As for a constitutional monarchy if attacked for long and that too on unjustifiable grounds might retaliate whose aftereffect would be grave enough for the nation.

The Constitution was given, communicated by my late brother - King Gyanendra

Kathmandu: Unlike his brother, late King Birendra, Nepal's present constitutional monarch, King Gyanendra, visibly possesses an inclination towards the national or even international media and prefers to talk to them on national and contemporary international matters as well.

What is evident from all these media parleys of the constitutional monarch that He is really concerned with the situation obtaining in the country and with the kind of governance the country was being provided by the men handling the system in the recent years.

Interestingly enough, all those media men who have till to date met the King in person at the Royal Palace have three things in common: that the King wishes the system to continue; that the King wishes good governance and finally the monarch would not fail in his "duties" should the situation so demand.

Not very surprisingly then , the Nepali monarch should ventilate his declared primary concerns to the international media as well. This means that King Gyanendra's concerns were same and hence his expressions to both national and the international media should be the same.

Only recently King Gyanendra talked to the TOI's editor Dilip Padgaonker wherein he expressed that, " as a dutiful descendant of the Shah dynasty (He) will not shy away from fulfilling his duties". This amply means that the King is closely watching the politics of the country which in essence is deteriorating and time permitting He would exhibit his presence and that too in the name what he prefers to call " serving Nepal and the Nepalis".

Be that as it may, a close analysis of King Gyanendra's fresh interview granted to India's Door Darshan, a TV channel close to Indian establishment, telecast Sunday late evening is worth pondering over.

During the course of the interview, the Nepali monarch says: (sic) "As far as I’m concerned I’m very clear on my constitutional role. At the same time let me assure you I intend to fulfil that role in the interest of Nepal and the Nepalese people. You must not forget also, the present constitution was given, communicated by my late brother King Birendra on the wishes of the Nepalese people".

A close look at the second part of His Majesty's expression unfolds two things: firstly the King not only intends to play his role but apparently is also determined to play that role come what may. Indeed, the role that has been stipulated in the constitution for the monarch. The stress put by the monarch on the word "'intend" is meaningful and worth pondering over by the present day Nepalese leaders and the members of the civil society.

Secondly, King Gyanendra's assertion that " You must not forget also, the present constitution was given, communicated by my late brother King Birendra on the wishes of the Nepalese people".

A cursory glance at the second portion of the King's assertion prompts the intellectuals to think that since the "Constitution was given and communicated by His brother King Birendra on the wishes of the Nepalese people" and hence should the situation so demand He can scrap the constitution which he would do on the wishes of the people.

Guess works only.

Summing it all, what could be fairly predicted is that the monarch will not tolerate the further deterioration of the country's politics and the law and order situation.

The subtle message(s) contained therein in the Monarch's fresh interviews granted to Indian media in the recent days have got to be seriously taken by the men who have to a greater extent remained instrumental in carrying Nepal to this chaotic state.

How the Nepali politicians react to King's fresh expressions will have to be carefully watched. The international mood will also be important to listen to in this regard.

UML favors election, Koirala reluctant

Kathmandu: Nepal as a nation-state is visibly under tremendous strain these days.

The split in the congress party has definitely compounded the politics of the nation even more.

Analysing the present day turbulent Nepali politics a few things come to the fore which merit attention. Look at those carefully.

-Deuba government remains determined to conduct the election in November.

-The Girija congress indicates that there is no utility in contesting the polls as it is sure to go the Pakistani Musarraf's way.

-The UML, however, is all set to join the fray and maintains that in the present volatile context, the polls were the only solution to get the country out of the political fluidity.

-The King too indirectly supports the Deuba claim that elections could well be conducted within the declared timeframe.

-The Maoists have indicated that they will disturb the polls.

If the above mentioned different statements or expressions are condensed then what comes to the fore again is that in today's Nepali politics only four things count or were important.

Firstly, it is the government's determination for the polls. Secondly, Koirala congress's reluctance to go to the polls and thirdly the Maoists avowal that they could damage the atmosphere of the polls.

And finally the King's role in case the elections could not be held on time or the whole process gets threatened by the Maoists insurgency at time of the election in November.

Now a few questions remain to be answered which are, for example, what if the government conducts the elections but the results get challenged by those who loose the elections? What if the government remains unable to conduct the elections on time? What if the Maoists create panic at time of the elections and the voters prefer to remain in their houses? And finally what would be the King's role in case the elections could not take place and the constitution remains in a limbo after the election deadline?

The situation in the country is that any thing could happen as mentioned in the above mentioned paragraphs. The most dangerous of them all is what if the elections are threatened and the deadlines are not met with? In that case when the constitution remains silent to cope with the then emerging situation, what is left is only the constitutional monarch's role.

Will the monarch in that situation manage a safe-landing for the country's prevailing order or will He for the time being intervene into the scheme of things till the country's regains its political track and restores law and order? Recalling King Gyanendra's commitments to democracy made after His accession to the throne last year what becomes clear is that the order is safe in the hands of the constitutional monarch. Nothing to panic.

However, it would be premature to discuss on such a matter at this stage when the establishment is apparently determined to conduct the elections on time. But then yet possibilities are after all possibilities.

All put together, country's politics will continue to remain as it is until the elections.

RF welcomes election of Hamid Karzai

Kathmandu: An emergency Afghan grand assembly, the Loya Jirga, took place in Kabul on June 11-19. This forum marked an important stage in the creation of a post-war government in the country through attaining national reconciliation and forming sustainable institutions of authority and a stable political regime. The results of the Loya Jirga have confirmed the course toward the revival of an independent and peaceful Afghanistan, and the complete liquidation on its territory of seats of international terrorism, religious extremism and narcotic threat.

Russia welcomes the election of Hamid Karzai as Head of the Transitional Authority and hopes that the government led by him will exert maximum efforts for the early return of the situation in the country to a peaceful course, restoration of the economic and social infrastructure, and the development of the economy.

The Russian side is in favour of further building up international economic and humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan and stands ready to make its contribution to the common efforts of the world community in this direction.

Moscow firmly intends to build relations with revival-seeking Afghanistan on the basis of friendship, mutual respect and multifaceted co-operation for the benefit of our countries and regional security, says a press note issued by Russian Embassy in Kathmandu dated 22 June, 2002.

Workshop on "Fundraising in Nepal"

Kathmandu: Realising the fundamental challenge to Asian NGOs and that being to develop local resources for sustained funding, the Asia-Pacific Philanthropy Consortium through the Asia Foundation with support from the Asian Development Bank had conducted a regional project in the past.

The project, according to TAF, was conducted in seven countries-B'desh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Phillipines, Thailand and Nepal. The project in these countries documented Asian fundraising experience in order to supplement or replace imported models and experience and to demonstrate that charitable giving and voluntarism take place even in relatively poor countries.

A dissemination workshop on "Fundraising in Nepal" was held in Kathmandu yesterday. On the occasion a country report and collection of case studies prepared by New Era was launched by ADB Country chief, Dr. Richard Vokes.

While Dr. George Varughese, the Assistant Representative of the Foundation gave his opening remarks on the said topic, Mr. Mahendra Nhattarai, the team leader of the project conducted in Nepal, dwelt at lwength on the main findings of the study.

Later a working group session followed which discussed, among others, on the study results and strategies to be adopted by Nepal in the future in this regard.

National | 5 Question  | Editorial | 2nd Impression | International | Past