Regional Security
Issues and Concerns-A View from Pakistan
Post 9/11 Developments-Implications for South Asia
-Dr. Shireen M.
Mazari, Pakistan
Introduction:
The US-led international coalition's War on Afghanistan has not only altered the strategic
dynamics of the South-West Asian regions, it has had a fallout on states like Pakistan at
multiple levels. To begin with, post 9/11 the world in a way has become hostage to US
global strategy because the US chose to involve the international community in what it
declared to be a global war on terrorism. But as the policy has unfurled, it is clear that
this war on terrorism is a US-defined war which seeks a global cover for what is
essentially an assertion of unilateralism.
While the overall US
global strategy of Containment has not altered, its parameters of threat perceptions have
widened, with the result that most major global issues seem to be affected by this
strategy-including economic issues, given that the war on terrorism has a strong
economic/financial dimension. The US has legitimized state intervention within the
financial sphere of external actors in terms of freezing of financial assets, and so on.
If this intervention expands, it could impact the financial resources of states, including
those of the Arab World and other Muslim states and groups who fall out of favor in the
West. At some stage, there will be a need for examining and drawing strict guidelines for
such interventionism.
South Asia-a
view from Pakistan
I-The new
dynamics relating to Afghanistan: For South Asia, the impact of 9/11 has altered
the parameters of the region itself-which, to some extent, had begun altering within the
strategic context after the development of medium ranged missiles by India which can now
target the Middle East and South Asian region also. The establishment of the Far Eastern
Command by India in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands reflected a recognition of this
parameter shift by India. And, post 9/11, it is really not feasible to talk of South Asia
within the traditional boundary of the seven SAARC members-given that both Pakistan and
India joined the US-led coalition to fight global terrorism and therefore merged the
politico-strategic regional bounds between South and West Asia.
For Pakistan, joining
the US-led anti-terrorist coalition reflected a major policy shift in that it required
withdrawing support from the Taliban government which had seen Pakistan as one of its
leading allies. For Pakistan the logic of this shift was clear: to preserves its strategic
assets and national sovereignty. As the war progressed in Afghanistan, US demands on
Pakistan increased but, unfortunately for Pakistan, the US commitments still remain
unfulfilled. Despite initial protests in Pakistan, the government managed to contain the
negative domestic fallout, showing the limitations of domestic support for the religious
parties, especially the extremist groups. Also, the Pakistan government, which had already
begun to clamp down on armed extremist groups within the country even before 9/11, began
to move more aggressively against an increasing number of these groups, especially after
the January 12 speech of President Musharraf.
The present danger for
Pakistan is the shift in the focus of the war against Al Qaeda. With members of this group
on the run and the US inability to nab the leadership, attention is focusing on their
possible presence in Pakistan. The capture of one of bin Laden's lieutenants, Abu
Zubaydah, from a "safe" house in central Punjab, Faisalabad, has lent credence
to this conjecture. As pressure on Pakistan has grown to try and seal the Durand line from
Taliban/al Qaeda infiltratiors, the Pakistan army has moved into the tribal belt for the
first time. There is also increasing US involvement with the Pakistani security agencies,
but there has been a limited fallout of this in the form of protests against US
personnel's presence in the tribal belt. So far the situation has been contained but it
has the potential of flaring up, which would destabilize the Durand line region and make
it more difficult for the US to conduct its anti-al-Qaeda and Taliban policy along this
region.
Also, as facts about
the way in which the US has conducted its war in Afghanistan come to light, there is a
strong resentment amongst Pakistani civil society over the disregard for the loss of
innocent Afghan lives under the label of "collateral damage". While most people
in Pakistan accepted the rationale behind Pakistan allying with the international
coalition against terrorism, the Pakistani view of the US did not undergo a shift. And as
the situation in the region has developed-both Afghanistan and India-the mistrust of the
US has once again become central to the thinking of the majority of Pakistan's civil
society. Unfulfilled expectations and increasing demands on Pakistan have further
accentuated this perception.
In addition to the
fallout of the war itself, the dynamics of Afghan politics has also seen its
reverberations in Pakistan. With the US backing the Northern Alliance into power in
Afghanistan, Pakistan has seen the advent of what was perceived to be a hostile government
in that country. Although there have been efforts at rapprochement between the Karzai
government and Pakistan, there is a level of hostility that continues to show through.
Moreover, the close links between the Northern Alliance leadership and India has added to
Pakistan's concerns. India is attempting to have a substantive presence in Afghanistan
with the opening up of six consulates in that country and with training programs for the
Afghan police and paramilitary forces. This raises the specter for Pakistan, of an Indian
effort to create a two-front threat situation for Pakistan, given the growing defense
relationship also between India and the US.
Overall, the presence
of US and other Western forces in Afghanistan has brought in an external military
dimension into the region, which so far has not created any stability. Since the
International Security and Assistance Force, ISAF, in Afghanistan's area of operation is
limited to Kabul, the lack of law and order continues to pervade the rest of Afghanistan
and the situation has been further aggravated with a revival of war-lordism. A further
factor of instability has been the almost total sidelining of the Pushtun Afghan
population from the structures of power. Given that this group is the largest single
ethnic Afghan group, such a situation will only extend the political instability-although
the Loya Jirga may be able to rectify this situation to some extent.
The continuing presence
of US troops not only in Afghanistan but also in Central Asia also implies the
interventionist role the US intends to play in the energy sector in the region. This is
causing concern in China, which has made it clear that it would not like to see a
permanent US military presence on ots borders. To add to Chinese concerns, the US has
failed to identify the so-called East-Turkeministan Liberation Movement, which is the
separatist movement in China's Xinjiang province, as a terrorist movement in the region.
In the initial period of the war in Afghanistan, the Chinese were also concerned over the
Pakistan-US military cooperation, but intensive interaction between the political-military
leadership of the two countries has allayed these fears and the ground breaking ceremony
of the Gwadar project has further eased Chinese apprehensions.
II-India and
Kashmir: Perhaps the greatest concern for Pakistan, post 9/11 has been the manner
in which India has reacted to developments in the region. As Pakistan saw it, India
attempted to try and use the War on Terrorism as an opportunity to draw Kashmir into the
terrorist ambit. When it failed to do so in the early months, it viewed with concerns the
growing US-Pakistan military cooperation-especially when the attack on the Occupied Jammu
and Kashmir parliament also failed to get a US condemnation of the Kashmir freedom
struggle.
Then came the attack on
the Indian parliament, with India laying the blame on extremist groups allegedly involved
in the Kashmir freedom struggle. Although to date no name and face has been identified
with this attack, India used the occasion to call for added pressure on Pakistan to stop
what India saw as "cross border terrorism". India also handed over a list of 20
men, accused of committing acts of terror against India, to Pakistan, demanding their
custody. Although Pakistan declared its intent of dealing with this request once it had
been given some documentary evidence and once the presence of these men within Pakistan
had been established-as long as they were not Pakistani nationals-India has continued to
make the demand for the handing over of all these men without yet supplying any
documentary evidence.
More dangerous was the
Indian move, after December 13, to raise the military ante against Pakistan by mobilizing
its troops along its border with Pakistan. Adding to the hostile environment, India
downgraded its diplomatic presence in Islamabad by recalling its High Commissioner and
closing all air, rail and road links with Pakistan. India has, since then, continued to
call on the international community to pressurize Pakistan into stopping
"cross-border terrorism". While Pakistan has made a commitment to closing camps
run by extremist militant outfits in Pakistan as well as trying to stop infiltrators from
these across the line of control, it has reiterated its support for the Kashmiris right of
self-determination.
After the January 12 th
Musarraf speech, which dealt with this issue of LoC infiltration, what was basically a
tactical, operational shift in Pakistan's Kashmir policy led to the false expectation that
some how Pakistan was washing its hands off the legitimate Kashmiri struggle for
self-determination. A reassertion of this commitment by the Pakistani leadership further
added to India's ire and it seemed as if it was prepared to go to war to make its
point-especially when it expelled Pakistan's High Commissioner from New Delhi in May 2002.
Vulcania:
Journey to the center of the earth
-Sylvie THOMAS,
France
A brand new interact
ive scientific
exploration park, devoted to volcanoes offers visitors an introduction to volcanology and
earth sciences in an impressive, pedagogical adventure, in the heart of the Auvergne
region, in a magnificent site which has remained wild.
The opening of the
European Volcanic Park, which is unique in the world and to which a budget of more than a
hundred million euros have been devoted, was an outstanding event. Vulcania, created on
the initiative of the Auvergne Region Council and its president, former President of the
French Republic Valery Giscard d'Estaing, opened on 20 February 2002 in
Saint-Ours-Les-Roches, 15 kilometers from Clermont-Ferrand, in the center of France, in an
area of 57 hectares.
A spectacular
exploration: The exploration begins along the steep edge of a "crater" 35 meters
deep. It is a journey to the center of the earth enhanced by special effects, rumbling, a
red glow and emanations of wisps of vapor. The adventure continues in a tunnel in which
the diversity of volcanic activity can be discovered thanks to the spectacular effects.
The platform on which the visitors stands stimulates an earthquake while red-glowing
cracks open up in the ground.
Further on, the
explorer comes upon a vast area invaded by lava. A car has been caught in the lava flow
which enters buildings and, in the distance, a volcano gives out smoke and continues to
spew forth lava. After going through a "tunnel of lava", amid the din of
eruptions, the visitor comes out in the "Volcanic garden", in bright light amid
exotic plants, six-meter high ferns and other luxuriant vegetation. He is then invited to
discover the grandiose images of the solar system and to learn about the internal dynamics
of the earth thanks to gigantic illuminated globe revealing the structure of our planet
and its upheavals. Active volcanoes are displayed on another globe which can also be seen
on video. The "theater of the Universe" takes us on a long journey in images
through time and space. To leave the center, visitors cross an animated "Incandescent
River".
Rigorous scientific
information: Another area, "In the tracks of volcanoes" gives the visitors a
more detailed approach to volcanoes, in the heart of eruptions, amid hot-water springs and
beds of mud. The "Magic Pool" then takes us above some of the most beautiful
volcanoes in Europe. "Man in the face of the volcanoes"' is a reconstruction of
a devastated landscape, full of incandescent ash-clouds. In the "observatory",
the adventure turns into a vulcanologist who has to evaluate the risks and decide whether
to evacuate the locals or not.
This introduction to
vulcanology and to the earth sciences is aimed at a vast public with a documentation
center open to every one and guided tours adapted to each visitor whether a schoolchild or
a tourist, a specialist or a simple enthusiast. Its rigor is guaranteed by a scientific
council grouping together French, German, English, Italian, Icelandic and American
specialists, the aim being to make Vulcania the European reference center for access to
information on volcanoes. The park is supported by numerous partners, observatories and
scientific organizations in France and throughout the world, not forgetting the local
Blaise Pascal University and its Magma and Volcano laboratory. Vulcania is also keen to
blend into landscape. Three quarters of it are underground, dug out of the flow of basalt
lava and made of natural minerals. Indeed, it would have been a pity to disfigure this
original, still wild site. Moreover, visitors are strongly recommended to continue their
stay with a visit to the real volcanoes, lakes and forests of Auvergne. |
