I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Sher Bahadur Deuba mired in cumulative mess!

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's return to Kathmandu from a widely "criticised" junket to India will augur in a decisive face in his party that will either force him to shape-in or ship-out. Deuba has already been handed over his party proposals for a constitutional amendments. His response so far has been in signals from his quarters that the government will constitute its own committee to study the party proposals. The party's central committee, where his opponents are a majority has, however, instructed him to implement their proposals.

This is one of many cumulative tools to edge Deuba out. The UML, for example, has publicly agreed with congress supremo Girija Prasad Koirala to amend the constitution and, furthermore, has promised the public that the amendments should come this session of the parliament. Congress, UML, the RPP together compose the necessary two thirds majority claimed to be solely required for the said amendments. The India trip, whatever its gains will merely have postponed by a week the crisis that has been revived on day one of Deuba's return.

One possible escape that Deuba may seek is the dissolution of the current winter session of the parliament on plea of early budget session. Another supportive measure could come in the shape of arguments buying time for a study of the congress proposals. But whether the UML will allow this or whether Girija babu is willing is what must be watched. Fluid politics of this sort where the Deuba opposition is clearly catching up is likely to win more enemies for the prime minister eroding his highly essential numbers in his own parliamentary party.

Amendment or not, the winter session of the parliament is clearly on the verge of closure. Finance minister Dr. Ram Sharan Mahat has been talking of a fiscal session placed early which would mean a resumption of the parliament a month or so from now. Whether this time span is adequate to shore up Deuba's woes will again have to be watched.

And there are many. The amendment is only one. The six month emergency period will by then be due for renewal. The Maoists pressure remains intact with the five day bundh call for the fortnight attempting to paralyze official school examinations, SLC. The very patience of his own party will be put to test and a desperate UML can hardly be reined in amidst massive erosion of cadre confidence. Deuba is hardly comfortable at the moment. Events will make sure that he is less comfortable.

Congress central committee terrorizes Deuba's men!

Kathmandu: Hardly had the Prime Minister taken a minute rest after his much criticized India trip, his own party central committee hinted Deuba that he will not be allowed to continue in the post for long.

The indication to this effect apparently came in the form of an in-disciplinary action taken by the congress central committee against some congress stalwarts who possess clear preference for the Deuba-Bhattarai camp.

About a dozen of congress' higher in rank workers have been sent signals that should they act and go against the party president or even against the latter's camp, severe penal actions would be served.

Those penalised by the congress CC this time include some incumbent ministers and former party activists.

Minister Gachhedar was scoffed for his "erratic utterances" made at the party meeting a month back wherein he had said that the freshly "picked" members to a congress committee were all someone's "'yes men". This was taken as a choleric remark and hence the penalty. Minister Gachhedar would now not be allowed to attend two congress CC meeting.

"I am the elected member of the CC and hence no body has the right and authority to block my entry into the CC meeting", said a furious Gacchedar upon listening to the news about his penal actions.

Minister J.P.Gupta and minister Rajendra Kharel have been warned not to speak henceforth words that humiliate the party bosses.

Minister Gupta had only recently said that there were forces inside the congress which see their personal elevation in the going down of Prime Minister Deuba. Likewise, minister Kharel had made a blunt comment wherein he had suggested both Girija and Krishna Prasad to renounce politics as these two leaders had brought perversions in congress politics.

One congress leader even maintained that it was time that the two top-hats of the party be sent to places where lunatics were treated in nearby India.

Congressmen like Dhundi Raj Shastri and his colleagues who recently appealed the King to intervene into the Nepalese politics in order to arrest the deteriorating situation have loosed their primary party membership for two years. This was the stringent action taken by the party against them.

Interestingly, all the men freshly taken to task by the party's central command were supposedly Deuba's men who once upon a time were considered to be Girija's yes-men. However, when Koirala neglected them all the whole set preferred to change their loyalties which is not uncommon in congress paraphernalia.

Analysts say that if Deuba-Bhattarai combine could not take appropriate measure against the fresh penal action, the victims either would change their present camp or at best wish to strengthen the hands of the constitutional monarch.

Be that as it may, the Koirala camp could have shelved the matter and not irritated a powerful set of congress stalwarts. But he did not. With this event what has become amply clear is that the Koirala camp could go to any extent in harassing the declared supporters of Prime Minister Deuba in order to press them to change their loyalties from Deuba to Koirala or face party's penal actions.

It remains yet to be seen as to how all the "'victims" take it in the coming days.

Kathmandu's political watchers see in this event the seed of an impending big-fight that is likely to take shape shortly that in all likelihood bring the two congress rivals face to face.

Given the weakened state of the Prime Minister politically speaking, the big-fight might go in favor of his competitor-Koirala.

The failed India trip, ever deteriorating law and order situation; economy approaching a near-collapse; dwindling tourism industry and the likes all put together clearly indicates that Deuba has failed as nation's prime minister. Moreover, his arrogance in not inviting the Maoists for talks come what may is being taken as Deuba's greatest political failure by the local intellectuals who wish the two warring sides to talk.

While Deuba has failed in so many fronts, his party rival has made headway in so many fronts to the extent that he is rumored to have met one very senior Maoists leader in the recent days. Koirala recent utterances that the government should resume the talks with the Maoists could well be taken in this light.

Koirala however denies that neither he nor his yes-man, Chakra Bastola did meet any Maoists leaders in the recent days and weeks.

Politics never goes straight. The fact is that Koirala is moving fast. Deuba's speed is known to all.

RPP divided over constitutional reform issue?

Kathmandu: The talk of constitutional reforms continues to be in the news.

However, of late there has been a change in perception among the nation's intellectuals regarding effecting certain changes in the 1990 constitution.

Nepal's civil society members and the informed citizenry housed in various intellectual institutions now have started voicing the need for a debate prior to bringing about a change in the existing constitution.

This is a new change in the ongoing scheme of things wherein the UML, the congress and the RPP considered that the agenda of the constitutional reform were the sole prerogative of the parties concerned and that none other than themselves had the right to speak against their dangerous endeavor.

The UML as more or less a disciplined party, its leaders speak the same language and express their determination that they would wish to see the changes in the constitution this session itself.

On the contrary, the ruling congress as a badly divided party as it stands today is in a fix regarding the agenda of the constitutional reforms. While a set close to Koirala would wish to see the reforms brought in to effect during this session toeing the UML line, the other set simply rejects the plea of the previous set simply because they fall in two separate camps or better say represent two diametrically opposite lobbies well within the congress. This means that the congress as a party remains divided over the issue of the constitutional reform agenda mainly initiated by the UML for understandable reasons.

The political tail of the UML and the Koirala congress, the RPP led by master of Nepal's conspiratorial politics, S.B.Thapa, too is toeing the same line which is only but natural.

A fortnight ago, RPP spokesman Kamal Thapa not only told a press gathering that his party was in all out favor of the reforms in the constitution as proposed by the UML and a section of the congress but even capped the role of the monarch in the proposed procedures to be adopted prior to effecting changes in the constitution.

A former staunch Royalist, Kamal Thapa, apparently found it opportune to declare amidst the press that he had been maintaining a comfortable distance with the constitutional monarchy at least in today's scheme of things.

However, a fresh declaration by yet another RPP stalwart, Dr. Prakash Chandra Lohani does see the role of the monarch.

"The monarch should be consulted in this regard", said Dr. Lohani while talking to a vernacular weekly supposedly close to Bhattarai-Deuba combine.

Dr. Lohani not only elevates the rank of the King in the matters of the constitutional reforms but also adds in the same interview that a lively debate/discussion must take place in the nation prior to bringing about a change in the constitution.

"It could not be the sole prerogative of 265 members of the parliament", added Dr. Lohani.

Analysing Dr. Lohani's fresh statements regarding the issue, what could now be concluded is that the RPP is also suffering from the same disease as that of the congress. This further means that the RPP has a separate set that wishes the whole affair to be discussed in and among the responsible quarters of the country and also that this set favored that the constitutional monarch must be consulted prior to effecting the changes in the constitution.

This finally means that the issue of the constitutional reforms will not go the way as has been mysteriously proposed by the UML and a section of the congress and the RPP.

In conclusion, it appears that the issue of the constitutional reforms as proposed mainly by the UML and seconded by Koirala congress will take some time much to the displeasure of those who wish to benefit politically from the said changes in the constitution.

While UML's wish is to gain politically from the constitutional reform agenda and is solely aimed at the next general elections, on the other the Koirala congress apparently only wishes to harass Deuba for understandable reasons. Moreover, Koirala's wish could be to tame the monarchy and the military force for it were these two institutions who summarily rejected his plea for the mobilization of the army at time when he was in power and faced a set-back in Holeri incident.

Is this a case of vendetta that Koirala is unconditionally supporting the UML ? A guess work only.

Nepal closure to affect SLC students

Kathmandu: The Maoists call for a Nepal closure for four days in series early next month has on top of it all caused panic among the students who are appearing for their School Leaving Certificate Examinations that begins the same days of the Maoists sponsored closure.

Nation's intellectuals remain puzzled over the Maoists choice for the dates mentioned above for the closure that is sure to affect the educational career of lakhs and lakhs of Nepali boys in their teens.

Several civil society organizations and nation's responsible quarters, in the meantime, have urged the Maoists top leadership to shift the dates for some other time so that the students could appear in the said examinations.

The Telegraph weekly joins the sentiments of all those who wish the Maoists closure scheduled for early next week be shifted for another date and allow the Nepal's SLC students could appear in their fate-deciding examination without any fear and mental tension and modestly urges the Maoists leadership to give a second thought to their already declared dates of the closure.

Nepal's intellectuals hope that wisdom would prevail in the Maoists camp and consequently they would let the SLC students appear the examinations in a fearless manner.

Dr. Gurung prefers 25 instead of 75 districts

Kathmandu: The Society for International Development on March 23 organized a thought provoking program on the theme "Fragile Districts, Futile Decentralization".

The keynote speaker was firebrand Dr. Hark Gurung, a Geographer of international standing and a renowned development planner of this Himalayan Kingdom.

Welcoming the attending guests at the talk program, the President of the SID, Dr. Bishwa Keshar Maskey opined that the theme brought under discussion has coincided with the timing when the Nepal government itself had been thinking and talking about departing from its earlier strategy of "downsizing" governance institutions to their "right-sizing" now.

Dr. Maskey also said that "the increasing globalization of political economy is rapidly transforming national governments into local communities whose activities are sharply constrained by international competition". It is, therefore, continued Dr. Maskey "relevant to envision a new local development strategy in an era of global economic integration, increasing democratization and civil society movements, especially in a setting like Nepal where the level of institutionalization is very low and citizen's aspirations very high".

Dr. Gurung pulled the rug under the feet of the attending participants at the talk program when he in his paper maintained that instead of having 75 districts in the country, it be brought down to 25.

"In doing so, the nation would not only be able to handle the administrative machinery comfortably but would also be viable economically", said Dr. Gurung.

According to Dr. Gurung "Decentralisation had been an incessant theme in Nepal over the last five decades and that It has evolved according to the rationale of successive regimes: for cosmetic purposes during the Rana rule, to sustain elite power base during Panchayat period, and for good governance in the present democratic set-up.

The past initiatives, continued Dr. Gurung, all foundered on the bedrock of the highly centralised governance system of the country. "Even now, there is no evidence that the central government and entrenched bureaucracy are becoming amenable to some form of local autonomy", Dr. Gurung concluded.

SID is a part of a global initiative to promote development dialogue. In Nepal, the SID aims we are told, to contribute to the development discourse by bringing together luminaries in the field and promote discussions on relevant topics.

Japan donates well equipped Ambulances to Nepal

Kathmandu: A sort of sister club relationship has been duly signed in between Rotary club of Kasthmandap, Nepal and Rotary club of Tokushima-Chuo, Japan.

The signing ceremony took place here in the capital district last week on 21 March at a colorful ceremony largely attended by the Rotarians of Kathmandu and the visiting Rotarians from friendly country of Japan.

On the occasion, the Japanese side handed over two well equipped Ambulances to the Kasthmandap Rotary club.

According to the organizers of the ceremony, one ambulance will go to Kurintar ambulance service and the second would go to Radha Krishna Jana Sewa Kendra located in Bardiya district of the western zone in the country.

Those who spoke on the handing over ceremony of the ambulances from Japan were among others Durgesh Man Singh; Dr. P.L.Shrestha; Mr. Junichi Mima, Special Representative, Rotary club of Tokushima-Chuo.

Others who also expressed their views were Rtn Kazuo Kondo and Charge de' Affaires at the Japanese Embassy, Mr. Takamichi Okabe.

Honorable minister for health Sharat Singh Bhandari was the chief guest of the function.

The entire programme was assisted by Rtn Niranjan Bhattarai and Rtn Bijaya Sharma.

The attending guests lauded the contribution of the Japanese side.

Deuba gained but what?

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has returned from his six day India's luxury-trip.

Though the official media has described the Prime Ministerial India trip as a "success", however, what substantial gains did Deuba bagged in his cap only time will tell.

According to a source included in Deuba's Delhi junket, Nepal's prime minister did raise several issues and brought it to the attention to the Indian leaders, however, the latter did not give any "'word" for the redressal of the Nepali problems such as the inundation of the terai plains caused by the construction of the dams on the other side of the border; the DPR of the Mahakali waters; the border demarcation problem; the Kalapani issue; the Bhutanese refugee problem and the daddy of them all the reviewal of the 1950 treaty issue and a host of other issues that warranted Indian support to arrive at an amicable solutions.

Yet another journalist who was in the entourage did say that "India listened to Deuba attentively and that was all".

Contrary to these opinions, Deuba claims that he has bagged substantial gains. The gains though appear invisible. However, the people in Nepal would wish to listen from him as to at what cost did Deuba bagged those unclear and vague gains?

Yes there has been a gain this round of Delhi trip.

India this time, though reluctantly, did admit that the Maoists leaders more often than not use her territories as a safe haven. This is no less a gain indeed, politically speaking.

This means that Nepal got it as a plus point to remind India henceforth to tame the Maoists insurgents if it were to expect from her tangible support in containing the invisible threat to the latter's territory from the ISI paraphernalia from Nepali territory.

However, Nepal's informed and responsible citizenry would wish that the Maoists insurgency gets sorted out by Nepal herself for obvious reasons.

TG ADDS: Indian media reportedly gave little attention to the trip of the Nepali prime minister to Delhi.

Nepal's magnanimity in this regard remains unchallenged for understandable reasons.

Be that as it may, such visits do contribute in understanding each other's issues better and in that way the trip could be a beginning in this regard.

Perhaps it is this "good-start" that India's Home Minister Lal Krishna Advani is shortly visiting Nepal.

Mr. Advani is considered to be one of the brains in the present Bajpayee government in Delhi.

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