I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s

Army gains trigger political response!

Kathmandu: Predictably Friday's all-party bash at Tundikhel became a cadre gathering bereft of lay listeners where the public exercise was on the numbers accumulated as participants. No interest was created of the speeches outside the opposition to Badri Mandal's Sadbhavana Hindi. If anything, the impression was that the desperate show of strength demonstrated poor participation more than an alignment designed solely to pressure Sher Bahadur Deuba government.

Ripples created by a non-signatured Maoists cease-fire offer were immediately crushed by Deuba's prompt retort from the United States of the prior need to lay down arms. Paradoxically, the Girija led Open Theatre speeches couldn't deviate from echoing this requirement. If any thing, attention could not but be kept away from the congenial international response of the Deuba trip. Inhibition in most of the speeches lay on the internationalization of Maoists issue. Strangely, such inhibitions emanate from clear third party backing received from the Deuba trip. The visit this week of the Indian Army Chief is unlikely to demonstrate similar response. The indication that this gives of our politicians is pregnant with much insinuations.

Eyes turned with hopes to informal announcements of the King Gyanendra's expected visits to India and then to China soon after the annual observations of the late King's Birendra and Dipendra's religious mourning period concludes. The lunar calendar has lengthened this period for about a month after which the King is expected to take short trips to our immediate neighbors rejuvenating direct contacts with the neighborhood leadership.

It is these trips coming in the wake of a Deuba's successful contacts in Washington and London that have aroused more public interest than the desperate attempts at home of the political parties to salvage diminishing public support of their activities.

The immediate days are therefore likely to see these activities attempting to isolate Deuba in the Parliament in lieu of an all party government designed to take up talks with the Maoists who appear finally to be weakening under pressure from the army response. It is significant that both the Maoists and the Royal Nepal Army are aware of the approaching rains and the imminence of increase in RNA's manpower and other resources by that time. Equally significant is the fact that visiting Indian army chief Padmanavan will be aware of these factors. This makes the Padmanavan trip here meaningful specially so in the background of the approaching expiry of the state of the emergency period in the country and the imminent convening of the budget session of the parliament.

No single political party alone can address nation's present crisis

Kathmandu: A pretty nervous UML leader Mr. Madhav Kumar Nepal has aired from Butwal the other day that if any party in the country could relieve the nation from the current malaise, it is the UML and the UML only.

Frustrated by poor performance of the last Friday's all-party jamboree, the leader of the opposition preferred apparently to regain the lost image by pronouncing the absurd.

Madhav Nepal's declaration that his party UML only possessed the accurate medicines for the current diseases that had plagued the country of late is being taken by political analysts as to have been an act wherein a small bird claims to handle effectively the total weight of the falling heaven.

However, not all is incorrect when Madhav Nepal declares his confidence. The fact is that the UML as a responsible party too has remained a mere silent spectator in the midst of the ongoing battle in between the security forces and the Maoists insurgents. The party, specially after its unification with the ML could have acted responsibly but instead the party preferred to align itself with Koirala's congress which meant that the UML too wished to join the band of the Koirala congress merely to secure its share in what has been described as an all-party government. In the process the UML not only minimized its own increased strength but also exhibited its lust for power.

Nevertheless, a section of the intellectuals still believe that the UML if acted responsibly could press the government very hard and ultimately could bring the establishment for talks. The fact is that the UML possesses enough strength even today but all that it has to do is to give an image that is not a "political tail or tool" of some other forces.

All said and done, unless there is an honest effort from all political forces enjoying broad support from the common populace to address the current malaise, the problem of the nation's can't be solved by any single party as claimed by UML leader the other day.

Now let's see what the UML has to say about the further extension of the state of emergency which is to expire soon.

The UML apparently wishes the prolongation of the emergency but joins chorus with other political parties, mainly supports Koirala-congress line, which clearly have stated that there should be no further extension to the state emergency. In doing so the UML apparently is playing double.

The UML in doing so wishes to hint all and sundry, including the Maoists insurgency, that the party was not in favor of further extension of the emergency. The fact is that a number of UML leaders have indirectly said that the emergency should be continued until the Maoists laid down their arms.

The fact is that the UML leaders internally feel insecure to go to the districts and meet their own cadre back in the villages.

Consider the hard fact that the party which could not meet its own people in the Maoists affected districts and villages at time of emergency, how could they dare to meet their grass-root colleagues when the state of emergency is lifted once and for all?

The fact is also that during these past six months neither the congress nor the UML leaders took the pains to do so for obvious and understandable reasons. This has undoubtedly alienated the leaders from their own party cadres in the far flung areas of the country.

The hidden fact is that the UML party very much wishes the further extension of the state of emergency for simple reasons.

This applies to the congress as well. However, when a section of the congress demands the lifting of the state of emergency, they do so under pressure from their stalwarts which were solely designed to destabilize their own party government.

Be that as it may, for some technical reasons, the government presumably will not be able to extend the state of emergency this time. Informed sources say that the matters pertaining to the extension of emergency required firstly the summoning of the parliament session which has yet to be summoned by the King. Secondly, the state of emergency is to expire nine days from hence. The Prime Minister is out of the country.

This means that the government too is not in a mood to extend the emergency this time. Or is it that the establishment is planning to extend the same through the use of some other means?

Is the Maoists insurgency now a divided force?

Kathmandu: The almost six month long ongoing fight in between the security forces and the insurgents appears to have entered into a crucial stage. It is this stage, analysts presume, wherefrom neither the state forces nor the Maoists insurgents can dare to backtrack.

"It is this stage wherein both the warring rivals apparently need a sort of effective mediation efforts from nation's responsible quarter so that both the parties engaged in fierce battle could be brought to talks", predicted a political analyst at the Tribhuban University.

Elaborating his opinion, the analyst goes on to say that his presumption was based on the two separately issued statements from the Maoists quarters in the recent days wherein both the statements indirectly hinted that the insurgency if pressed will not say no to the talks with the government.

"It is time that some suitable personalities on whom both the government and the Maoists side repose trust come forward and play a role in order to save the nation from the approaching brink", the analyst continued.

Nevertheless, other informed political commentators possess different opinions on the statements recently issued by the Maoists quarters.

To recall, the first statement issued in the name of the insurgency pledging for an unconditional cease-fire beginning today has been dubbed as a ploy of the government by the Maoists insurgency designed to portray the latter as a weakened force. The first statement, a non-signatured one, was instantly rejected by the insurgents stating that they had not issued any statement of that sort in the recent days.

However, through yet another electronic mail dated 11 May and sent to a group of select Nepali papers and duly signed by the supremo of the insurgency hints that talks could be held with the government which also states that a cease-fire could also be considered. Conflicting statements indeed.

The government under Deuba remains undeterred and says that offer of talks from the other camp could only be considered if they laid down their arms. The other quarter rejects government's conditions.

In the process the possibility for the talks gets lost.

Be that as it may, there is yet another section among the Kathmandu intellectuals who possess entirely different view who wish to deeply analyze and assess the Maoists insurgency at this stage.

Their assessment is that at the moment there could be various factions in the insurgency itself. They presume that there should definitely be two equally competent factions which pronouncedly exhibit their clear preference for talks and no to talks respectively.

Assumption is that, according to this set of intellectuals, Prachanda and Dr. Bhattarai now prefer talks. The other equally competent and a bit militant force well within the insurgency itself that is supposedly led by Badal and his colleagues still prefer the continuation of what is going now.

If the assumptions arrived at by the intellectuals were correct or were even closer to the truth what could be said of the insurgency is that the "gap" in "perceiving" the existing state of the battle with the security forces will further widen that ultimately could weaken the insurgency from within.

It is in this light that some analysts have taken the two separate statements supposedly issued by the Maoists quarters. According to them, the first statement which talked of the cease-fire could have been the expressions of the moderate lobby within the insurgency. Contrary to that Mr. Dinanath Sharma who plainly stated in an interview with BBC being in New Delhi that they had not pushed the idea of cease-fire and the subsequent release of yet another strong worded statement from their quarter does reveal that there exist a radical group which would wish the continuation of the ongoing battle with the nation's security forces.

Observers say that the two top hats of the insurgency might have assessed the losses caused by the security forces in the recent days and could have forwarded the idea of a cease-fire.

Possibly annoyed by the cease-fire statement from its own quarter, the rather hard core group preferred to dismiss the previous statement thus allowing ample room to guess that the insurgency remained badly divided amongst themselves. This group could have thought of taking "revenge" from the other camp for the losses it incurred during these days.

This also brings to the fore the fact that even if one camp of the insurgency wished to attend talks with the State, the other camp will remain in the jungle equipped with arms and ammunitions. This will pose a problem to the government in case it yielded to talks under pressure from responsible quarters. The problem would be "'Talks with whom"?

Be that as it may, the national population is not concerned with the possible rifts in the camp of the insurgents. All that they wish is they must heed to the demands of the common people and attend talks and that too in the larger interest of the nation.

Whether it were Prachanda or even Badal, both were the sons of the soil and hence it would be desirable that they all facilitate the atmosphere for talks.

Prem Sharma awarded Doctoral Degree

Kathmandu: The Dean Office of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, has awarded Doctoral Degree to Mr. Prem Sharma.

Dr. Prem Sharma is currently a senior lecturer at the CEDA.

Born in 1954 in Voksing, Parbat district, Dr. Sharma secured his Doctoral degree on the topic "'People's Participation in Local Development Planning".

He received this prestigious degree at the end of the April, last month.

Dr. Sharma is also a recipient of Diploma in Cooperatives from the State of Israel.

Informed sources say that Sharma is perhaps the sole recipient of this degree on the said topic in the country.

The Telegraph weekly congratulates Dr. Sharma for his highly commendable accomplishments.

TG Adds: The Center for Economic Development and Administration, CEDA, is today observing its 34 th anniversary at its premises in Kirtipur.

Meanwhile, Mr. Abullaish is the new executive director at CEDA.

Finally it could be dialogue alone to settle the issue

Kathmandu: The nation visibly remains divided on whether to continue with the state of emergency or scrap it.

The general mood of the political parties have been that it would be nice if the state of emergency were lifted as the innocent people and party workers were being supposedly harassed by the security forces in the villages and the districts. (The security forces say that they were alert on these matters).

To support their claim they claim that the prevailing laws of the land in no way discouraged the military to go into full action against the Maoists insurgents and hence no need to extend the state of emergency any more.

However, sources close to Nepal's armed forced would apparently wish the state of emergency lengthened as its extension would, they opine, would enhance their fighting capabilities.

For example, if former Brigadier General Shiva Prasad Sharma's expressions were any indication to that effect, then it could be fairly said that the nation's army needed yet another extension to deal with the Maoists insurgents. Let's look what he says in this regard: "If the state of emergency were lifted, the nation's army would be forced to seek appropriate permission from the center for its each and every attack on the insurgents. What if the orders came late? Is it not possible that by then the insurgents will come heavily down against the army? Time would be lost in getting needed permission for each and every attack on the insurgents".

Mr. Sharma made these revelations in an interview with one vernacular weekly published this Monday morning.

But then yet his assertions could in no way be considered as the official version of the nation's armed forces.

However, the ground reality is that for certain technical reasons, the government will apparently find it very difficult for its further extension.

According to the retired Brigadier General Mr. Sharma, the government must not hold talks with the insurgents unless the other camp laid down their arms.

Regarding a query of the said paper, Mr. Sharma outrightly dismisses the allegation that the army possessed any ulterior motives of controlling the politics of the nation.

"It is absurd. Nepali army's culture has been that we never think of politics and hence all rubbish presumptions"', added Mr. Sharma.

He however in the interview has made a strange revelation which clearly hints that should a fateful moment come in the country's politics wherein the constitutional monarch is compelled to take over the charge of the country, the nation's army will definitely side with the Monarch.

This again could in no way be taken as the official version of the nation's army. But then yet what has been the longstanding tradition of this country is that the nation's army has ever remained loyal to the monarch and that too unconditionally.

It would be in the fitness of the things to recall what a retired Army Chief had told a newspaper some time back.

The former Chief of the army staff had clearly told that the "mobilization of the army will only be to create pressure on the insurgents" and that "finally its solution could only be found through the initiation of dialogues and agreements"'.

This means that the army too would wish the initiation of the talks with the Maoists. However, the fact is that the nation's armed forces have only recently rejected the idea of having talks with the insurgents and thereby supported Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's no to talks unless laying down of the arms.

This makes the picture a bit hazy indeed.

Add to this the comeback of a fresh and heavily equipped Deuba. Nepal's prime minister presumably enjoys unconditional support from major western democracies of the world. The US and the UK plus the EU all apparently have converged to support Deuba in his bid to face the threat of the insurgents.

Hopefully, the developed West must have told Deuba not to say abrupt "no" to talks should the offer came from the other quarter.

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