I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Nepal's political course hangs in balance!

Kathmandu: The scene appears set.

Pieces of puzzle would seem to be fitting in. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has set the ball rolling. He has registered his motion for an extension of the state of emergency in parliament. The budget session has been already summoned. The official congress line propounded by Chairman Girija Prasad Koirala is against the emergency. The official UML line is against the emergency.

Unless Deuba wangles the UML which now hedges its anti-emergency standpoints with meeting across the social board and unless Koirala remains in theoretical minority in his congress central committee, Deuba's gambit is unlikely to succeed. If he doesn't succeed, it is the Koirala line that will topple him.

If he does succeed, however, the setback to Deuba's parliamentary opponents will be highly significant.

One likely scenario much debated today is that majority parliamentary opposition will be avoided by Deuba's dissolution of the House in which case it will be the Upper House that may endorse his (Deuba's) move. On the other hand, the other talked about option is that Deuba may call for elections which given current circumstances will be a difficult proposition. For both these possibilities Deuba must retain his parliamentary party majority. For Deuba to be restricted, Girija babu's Central Committee majority must win away the Deuba parliamentary support. The race is on.

In the mean time this wishy-washy politics continues to lend a hand to the Maoists and is one-hand tied position for the Army poised for a major victory against the insurgents as it claimed only recently. That puzzling factor of the political sector being oblivious to this situation will perhaps be settled by the K.V.Rajan visit here.

For most political observers it will be the Southern line that will tip the scale in today's delicate Nepali politics. There is no doubt, however, that the scene is set.

Koirala and Madhav Nepal speak strikingly similar language!

Kathmandu: The UML's stance vis-à-vis the Maoists speak both the languages of the government and the Maoists as well.

It supports the government's stance becomes clear when it appeals the Maoists to lay down their arms and attend the talks which is what the government has been saying. Its new stance is almost close to the insurgents when it says that the government must initiate dialogues with the insurgents and keep the doors for the dialogue open is what tentatively the Maoists have of late been hinting all and sundry.

One more striking similarity could well be found apparently in the stances of the Koirala congress, UML as a communist party and that of the Maoists leader Prachanda regarding their perception on the nation's army.

Whether it is by mere coincidence or even accidental, all these three entirely separate political entities have of late been voicing that the nation's army be brought under the control of the civilian administration that is the Royal Nepal Army be henceforth obey the instructions of the government in Singh Durbar.

Puzzling though it may appear but then it is a fact that has unfolded only in the recent days and weeks.

Question could then be asked as to why these three separate forces whose political aims and for that matter credentials were different have come so closer vis-à-vis the Nepali army?

A recent statement to this effect from Prachanda too hints at the same which coincides with the concerns of both Koirala and Madhav Nepal.

But why it is so?

Is it that Prachanda, Madhav and Koirala all were afraid of the RNA's growing popularity? Or is it that these three political figures possess some sort of fear in their minds about the growing role of the RNA in Nepali politics if any? Or is it that that they now conclude the RNA could never be loyal to nation's political leaders and for that matter to the system and hence to tame this force it would be fitting to bring them under the jurisdiction of the civilian administration? Finally is it that these three leaders have come more closer on issues of national politics after Koirala's supposed meeting with Prachanda in Delhi? Or is it a mere coincidence?

The fact is that in the recent weeks and months, Nepali political leaders have repeatedly questioned the credentials and the very intentions of the nation's apolitical military force. The fact is also that in the process, the Nepali leaders have at times made scathing criticisms against the army. The criticisms took a new height when the COAS Prazzwal Rana made an equally high charged attack on the performances of the successive governments formed after 1990 and openly alleged that the present chaos in the country were the cumulative effects of mal-governance.

Since Mr. Rana's March 27 Shivapuri speech, the Nepali leaders apparently have vowed to malign the prestige of the army to the extent that they have started suspecting the very intentions of the army and openly claim that Deuba's administration is one way or the other remains under the influence of the army.

Political parties at times been voicing that the districts where the army's concentration was high enough, the role of the civilian administration is almost defunct. The army denies this allegations.

In the process, the Nepali army has been hinting that it possessed no political ambitions as such and that they have been mobilized under the instructions of the government in Singh Durbar.

Informed political analysts guess that Nepali leaders suffer from inferiority complex. Had it not been so why should they suspect the very motives of an army that has ever remained apolitical and fought glorious battles all in the name of its people and the nation.

"It is the political sector's dismal performances in the past and their excessive lust for power that makes them afraid of the army's strength"', said a political analyst who is associated with the Tribhuvan University.

He, however, says that by and large the Nepali army possesses very high regards and respect for the Nepali monarchy and that too unconditional.

Perhaps it is this unconditional respect and honor for the King of the Nepali army that apparently makes the political sector tremble with fear.

Analysts opine that it would be wise if the political sector developed a sort of working relations with the nation's army by taking them all into confidence. If they do so, the army will definitely feel its prestige enhanced. Going the other way round might irritate the army to the extent that its consequences might be beyond our simple imagination.

It is time that the political sector and the army come to each other's terms in the larger interest of the people and the nation. After all the men in the army too were the sons of this soil like those who were at the moment in the political sector.

Who is benefiting from current congress clash?

Kathmandu: Deliberate or otherwise, the nation is being pushed to the wall.

Whether it is being pushed to the wall under some one's instigation or on our own is very difficult to guess. However, what is for sure is that if the present state of misunderstanding existed in the Nepalese political sector for long then it is sure that the nation will have to pay a very heavy price politically speaking.

An old dictum says that if the Almighty wished to ruin a person, he first makes him mad and then every thing followed automatically as per the wishes of the Almighty.

The would be crisis that is yet to take a concrete shape revolves around whether to extend the state of emergency for yet another round or scrap it for good.

In our own analysis, the diametrically opposed views emanating from well within the ruling circle itself and from the Opposition parties regarding giving a continuity to emergency or discontinuing it is not the real problem. The problem is the conflict and the suspicion what the ruling government and the ruling party possess for each other. It is this conflict, frankly speaking, going on in between the Koirala loyalists and the Deuba's men in the government and in the party.

The UML, for one, is adding fuel to the fire in the congress internal fighting.

Definitely the loser is the congress.

In the process, prime minister Deuba too could not be absolved from criticisms. He was the one who hinted upon his return from the US and the UK trip that he felt there was no need for giving continuity to the state of emergency.

However, he took a different stance the next day at an all-party meeting convened in his Secretariat to brief his fellow colleagues from the opposition about the "successes" he bagged this round of his trip to the developed West.

Suddenly he saw the urgent need to go ahead with the state of emergency and duly registered a motion in the parliament secretariat in order to get it approved by the impending session which is to begin soon.

The Koirala camp under Koirala himself wished to deride at the party-government in a calculated manner and hinted that it would not support the government on matters of emergency come what may.

The UML felt it comfortable and politically rewarding to bring the Deuba and the Koirala camp face to face in this conflict and apparently is siding with the latter camp in order to cut down the size of prime minister Deuba. The UML has won the game for Koirala and Deuba both have vowed not to budge an inch from their declared stances vis-à-vis the state of emergency.

The internal congress fight took a very unhealthy turn when some in the Koirala camp suspected that the prime minister under the instigation of the army apparently decided to go ahead with the state of emergency without even bringing the whole affair for an appropriate debate in the party's central committee.

Analysing the pains of the Koirala camp what comes to the fore is that it is shocked on three counts: firstly, Deuba did not bring it to discussion prior to registering the motion in the parliament secretariat; and secondly that Prime Minister Deuba could have done so not at his will but under the instigation of the Army. Thirdly, the Koirala camp feels that the Army could act as usual even in the absence of the state of emergency.

The Deuba camp is determined to go ahead with its motion in the parliament come what may. This camp believes that if the state of emergency comes to an end, might affect the high morale of the army which is gaining upper-hand in the battle with the Maoists insurgents.

The fact is that Koirala camp and the UML are trying to discredit prime minister Deuba by projecting him as a person who possesses no guts on his own but prefers to listen to "others".

Fortunately enough, the Deuba camp has not suspected the very motives of its detractors or else could have told point blank that they too were opposing his plans under extra-territorial dictates.

Now comes the moot question:; What if Deuba remains determined in his stance on emergency? What if his own party voted against the motion at time of voting in the parliament? What if the Deuba's parliamentary committee issued "whip" to its lawmakers and force it to vote in favor of the motion? What if the Koirala loyalists summarily reject the whip and boycott the entire process of voting? What if a frustrated and completely annoyed Deuba thought of dissolving the House? What if a perplexed Deuba manages to declare elections? And what of the elections could not take place well within the stipulated six months time? What if the Army by then becomes restive and appealed the King to take charge of the nation?

Possibilities galore indeed.

Equally important would be to think over these possibilities also. What if the entire Koirala camp joined hands with the UML and this in turn forge a joint alliance with the other minor left parties and wage a struggle? And what if the Maoists insurgents too side with the Deuba's opposition?

All these put together, what becomes clear is that the nation is indeed awaiting a criss of different political dimension should the ongoing discussion on emergency take an ugly turn.

All that analysts have to say in this regard is "Handle with care; brittle material inside".

Maoists favor talks now; prefer to go together with 1990 forces

Kathmandu: The Supremo of the Maoists insurgency has issued yet another statement wherein he hints that he and his party would very much wish to have dialogues with the establishment.

The message if it were a real one speaks so many things which deserves deep analysis.

Firstly, the fresh statement has come at a time when Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has just returned from what has been described by the Nepali "official" media as a highly successful trip to the United States of America and the United Kingdom.

The message, secondly, has also come at a time when the leaders of the insurgency listened to the US and the UK's strong commitments for Nepal's plea for support in order to wipe out the threat of Maoists insurgency.

And thirdly, Prachanda's statement has coincided with the strong commitments made by Indian Army Chief S. Padmanavan in favor of the Nepali establishment who recently concluded his friendly trip to Nepal.

Fourthly and finally, the insurgency could have predicted in advance what it would mean for their insurgency should the US, the UK, the countries of the EU plus the neighboring India came together in support of Nepal in containing their threats. Nepal now is one unit of the world chain which has vowed to wipe out terrorism from the globe. Nepal now can't break this chain. This means that this country will see the incessant pouring in of military hardware and the likes in the coming days and months. But whether this country can afford to continue such battles enjoying   foreign support for long is the moot question.

However, intellectuals wish to shift this matter onto the heads of the politicians to decide.

All put together what becomes clear is that either the Maoists insurgency is now an already spent force or a weakened one or it is a force that has given second thought to its ongoing violent campaigns.

It could be a weakened force in the sense that since six months or so of its battle with the security forces, it has definitely lost its hundreds and hundreds of dedicated cadres. Albeit it has caused damage on the other camp as well.

The Maoists insurgency could have also changed its stance which relied more on violent campaigns but then invited wrath from common populace of the nation including those who once were their supporters knowingly or unknowingly. This resulted in the abrupt reduction in the number of their supporters both within and without.

If Prachanda's statement were to be taken in its true perspective then what could be concluded is that the insurgency and its top-hats now have started feeling themselves guilty in having blasted the social and the educational infrastructures in the nation of late. They now repent for their anti-social activities and have vowed to begin a probe on why and how it were damaged.

[ Or is it that the supposed militant group of the insurgency blasted the educational institutions on their own without taking prior permission with the top-hats of the same organization and hence the repentance from Prachanda? Guess works only.

If it were so then what could be guessed is that the insurgency possesses so many camps well within the group. Is it that Prachanda and Dr. Bhattarai represent the moderate section who prefer now talks? Is it that the militant section of the insurgency says no to talks?]

This is a big change psychologically speaking in the camp of the insurgency.

The most pleasing to the Nepal's peace-loving ears is Prachanda's declaration that they were ready to sit in for talks with the government. He however further says that in order to find out a proper and suitable solution to the present imbroglio, all the forces of the 1990 popular movement must act together.

The last sentence is of import in the present context. It assumes significance in the sense that the statement still values the gains of the 1990 movement and hints that time permitting the insurgency could forge an working alliance with the forces of the 1990 movement.

This reminds one of the Madhav Nepal and Koirala's changed tones being made in the recent days which analysts prefer to claim that it were faintly sympathetic towards the insurgency's changed stances wherein they prefer talks now.

On top of it all, what is surprising is that the Maoists too have hinted that they too were in favor of effecting suitable changes in the constitution in order to strengthen the nation's parliament. Is it a mere coincidence that Madhav Nepal and president Koirala have made it a point agenda and the agenda being reforms in the existing constitution. This means that Prachanda also has joined the chorus for the reforms in the constitution.

The country is small indeed, but political undercurrents were very high in Nepal, conclude political analysts.

Prachanda's offer for talks has got to be taken seriously by all concerned sectors in the country.

What else could be best other than dialogue if it saved so many precious Nepali lives from being killed in the battles?

Will the Deuba administration listen to it all?

Dahal enters FNJ with young team of FNJ

Kathmandu: The 20th general convention of the Federation of Nepalese Journalists, FNJ, elected its new executive members including its new president.

The former General Secretary of the FNJ, Mr. Tara Nath Dahal is the newly elected president of the FNJ-the umbrella organization of the Nepalese journalists.

Mr. Dahal defeated his nearest rival Subhash Dhakal in the race of the presidency.

Similarly, Mr. Bishnu Nisthuri is the newly elected General Secretary of the FNJ and Mahendra Bist is the Secretary of the said organization.

Mr. Dahal, the new president of the FNJ, is a renowned journalist of the nation who possesses immense knowledge of the profession wherein he is engaged at the moment. Mr. Dahal previously served as the GS of the FNJ for almost three years or so under the presidency of Mr. Suresh Acharya.

Mr. Acharya served the FNJ in practically all the possible capacities and finally became the president of the organization.

The new president, Mr. Dahal, is a capable journalist who is expected to run the organization smoothly and work for the promotion of a prestigious and effective journalism in the country.

Mr. Dahal has already hinted the government that his FNJ will not tolerate any more journalist being sent to the bars.

A rough estimate reveals that of the total of 92 media men taken in custody in the recent months , about 31 were yet to be freed from the bars.

Of the total, says a estimate, 13 were still in the prison; 18 in custody; 40 freed; and the whereabouts of some 21 media men is still a mystery.

Mr. Shiva Gaunley is the new treasurer of the FNJ.

Some of the newly elected members of the FNJ include Kedar Bhattarai; Nirmala Sharma; Binod Dhungel; Balaram Bania; Poshan K.C; Hemant Kafle; Samagnya Lakoul and Suman Dahal.

The Telegraph congratulates all the elected members.

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