I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Dangerous confusions prevail!

Kathmandu: Confusion unfortunately prevails. It is the need to do away with the confusion with which the people at large had welcomed King Gyanendra's much anticipated Royal move to initiate measures to remedy Nepal's ailing democracy. The sources of confusion must thus be immediately identified. The design and purpose of such conclusion will need immediate analysis too.

It has taken nearly a month now for the political parties to concede the fact that the choice of Lokendra Bahadur Chand as Prime Minister by the King was the product of their alternative to themselves in private talks with the monarch. This source of confusion clashes sharply with their original reaction denouncing his choice as usurpation by the monarchy of the right of parliament and parliamentary parties to nominate the prime minister.

Now comes the argument originating from political parties and their hangers on in the media and intelligentsia that the King must delegate the executive powers he has assumed ( in the absence of parliament and also in the absence of the elected Deuba's cabinet) and delegate it to the cabinet in order for political parties to enter government ( this is the UML version). The statements released now while silent on the Chand appointment where the cat appears to be out of the bag at this stage now suggests that it was expected that Prime Minister Chand would form a cabinet at the parties' dictate by way of which the executive powers are with the Prime Minister. The fact that Chand's effort over the month has been to do just that sums up the bone of contention being the appointment of certain cabinet members along with the Premier by the King.

The rumor now is that these very portfolios are as much available for grabs by the major political parties in the search for their participation. The confusion lies in the fact that more such contentious issues are being brought-forth to dally over. And so the confusion prevails.

Focus shifts to a UML that appears strained over continuous propping of issues that gives it an image of hard-bargainer. Confusion also lies in the image of Mr. Chand is developing as some one desperate to continue to make concessions to realize his obsession for larger participation. Whether by time of writing the UML will have obliged remains doubtful even by time of this comes to print. These sources of confusion muddle Chand's agenda and deny the public fast delivery.

Yet another source of confusion lies in the Nepali congress which has now taken a posture almost akin to the Maoists by steering public discussion towards constituent assembly as a means of remedying the current woes. It appears that this section of democrats finds this constitution unworkable now and want "more democracy" in another constitution the mechanisms of the creations of which appears totally out of context with the current constitution which they say has "failed"' democratic aspirations. As much as their role in yet another constitution is another source of confusion. The proximity that is suddenly evident between the Maoists and the Congress stuns any effort at analysis.

Yet another source of confusion are the Maoists themselves. If continuing talk of talks with the Maoists make it possible to predict that they will heighten their presence through violence in order to position themselves suitably for negotiations, how an on what agenda these very negotiations are to take place and by whom becomes now another matter of mere conjecture. The Maoists now no longer lay arms, want the constituent assembly, will not compromise on republicanism and the constitution neither has the capacity nor the ability to cope with these demands. It is not surprising last week that they launched a major public relations exercise from neighboring India over CNN to try to convince the "democratic West" that they were not terrorists by revolutionaries seeking public justice. The confusion lies here too specially in the context of a concerned West demanding talks.

The sacked, rejected and defected ones housed in the expanded cabinet

Kathmandu: The rumor that Chand's cabinet will be expanded soon has finally taken a shape this Monday afternoon.

The new faces inducted Monday in the cabinet expansion come from various sectors and disciplines the public standing of whom could well be questioned. Albeit, due to their longstanding associations in their respective fields, the people more or less recognize them but remain afraid of their performance while being in the power corridors.

In what could be described as a move to annoy the major political parties, Prime Minister Chand has been able to collect personalities Monday round of cabinet expansion who at one time or the other had been in the mainstream political parties—the congress and the UML but were either expelled, sacked or even defected from their umbrella organizations.

For example, Kuber Sharma is a Chartered Accountant by profession who joined congress after 1990 and ever remained loyal to what was then described as Bhattarai congress. Later, when he was sidelined by Girija, preferred to quit the congress and formed his own party—The Greens.

Kuber Sharma of late had been advocating for King's intervention in the national politics to do away with the anomalies that had gripped the country of late. He is a minister now in the just expanded cabinet.

Mr. Devi Ojha is the one who began his career with the UML but later split and entered the ML together with Bam Dev Gautam. Mr. Ojha quit the ML when he was asked to chose one of the two: the party or the Pajero vehicle. Ojha preferred Pajero over the ML. He is a minister now.

Mr. Chaulagain only recently quit the UML for he tried to convince his partymen that the UML must not become the political tail of the congress led by Girija. Chaulagain also preferred a working alliance of the UML with the King in order to do away with the political crisis in which the country was in. The UML party accepted his resignation. Chaulagain is the minister.

Dipak Gyawali is a highly qualified enginner and is also considered as an expert of Water Resoiurces. Mr. Gyawali used to criticise the performances of the previous governments scathingly and preferred construction of small hydel-projects in the country than going in for mega projects. Now he is the minister of water resources.

Mr. Badri Narayan Basnet—a resident of Biratnagar and a staunch congress from the beginning began differing with Girija babu's working styles and initiated a campaign to malign the prestige of Mr. Koirala. When enough was enough, he was sacked but was picked up by Sher Bahadur Deuba. He is a minister now.

The two businessmen, Mahesh Pradhan and Rabi Bhakta Shrestha, are the ones in the business community who ever remained critical to the performances of Congress and UML leaders for unknown reasons. Mr. Shrestha after the Royal move of October 4 and 11 apparently hinted that the nation and its ailing industry/business sector remained not safe if it were left to the mercy of Nepal's corrupt leaders. Both have become ministers.

Analysing the induction of these few new faces in the cabinet, what becomes clear is that Chand wishes to steer the nation with the support of clearly non-political creatures. Albeit, the men in the now expanded cabinet will perhaps not contest the elections. Even if they dared to do so, will fall flat.

Political analysts opine that the selection of the new faces could be a political game indeed but playing a game and delivering goods to the people are entirely two different things.

Bringing in new faces rejected by mainstream political parties might work for some time but would ultimately infuriate the political paraphernalia who must have felt total embarrassment with the Monday's cabinet expansion housed by their own rejected, sacked and defected ones.

But then the fact is also that Chand wished that major political parties sent their colleagues to join the cabinet at time of the expansion. The major political parties did not oblige Chand and stuck to their previous stand: that the Chand government lacked legitimacy as it was a government formed unconstitutionally and that the government lacked executive authority in its prime minister.

The political deadlock persists!

Kathmandu: Two diametrically opposed set of theories are concurrently at work in Nepal's politics.

The emergence of these two sets apparently came into existence the day King Gyanendra dismissed the Sher Bahadur Deuba government and replaced the same with an establishment led by Lokendra Bahadur Chand.

Since October first week, it clearly and very distinctly appears that the distance in between the Constitutional Monarch and the major political parties is widening much to the discomfiture of the national population who fail to predict the consequences should this rift continue to persist for long.

After about a month or so of the deadlock in between the monarch and the political parties whose representation was not in the Chand government, only last week the monarch initiated a process of dialogue with the "dissatisfied" leaders and urged the King that the latter should "correct" the Royal measures of October 4 and 11 which, according to political parties, were not in line with the universally accepted acts of a constitutional monarch. The political parties, more specially the congress led by Girija and the UML led by Madhav Nepal, concluded that the monarch had definitely "exceeded his constitutional limits" as stipulated in the 1990 constitution.

Fortunately, the deadlock was broken when the King himself initiated the process of dialogue with a select group of leaders and wished to listen their constitutional grievances.

Those who met the King later revealed that the King appeared in a mood to work together with the political parties and that he possessed no "ulterior" motives regarding the functioning of the present system.

"I found the King very sympathetic to my political pleas and hence I expect that the King will soon take initiates that will do away with the current political uncertainty", said a beaming K.P.Woli—one of the influential leader of the UML immediately after meeting the King.

Later, almost same sort of expressions came from Girija Prasad Koirala who apparently came convinced from the Palace that the King will do no harm to the system.

What the King assured these two gentlemen during their one-to-one meeting at the Palace or what conclusions they drew from their said meeting is very hard to predict, However, what is for sure is that the King apparently decided to go ahead with the "suggestions" of the Chand government and concurrently assured the major political parties that whatever he did on October 4 and 11 were all within his constitutional limits and hence there was nothing to panic.

Both Girija and Woli concluded that democratic system was safe in the hands of the King.

But suddenly they got a jerk Monday afternoon when the King as per the "suggestions" of the incumbent Prime Minister inducted new faces in the cabinet to the utter displeasure of the political parties who had expected that the monarch would act as per the "recommendations" of the incumbent prime minister.

"This is yet another attack on the constitution", conclude political parties who had almost reconciled with the previous Royal move hoping that the King will soon convince the nation that the "executive" powers well remained with the Cabinet.

But this did not happen, opine political parties. Instead of "correcting" the previous acts of what they call "totally unconstitutional", the King went even one step further Monday afternoon when the monarch inducted few new faces in the Chand Cabinet not at the "recommendation" of the prime minister as it should have been but accomplished the same at the "suggestions" of the executive chief of the government.

This means that the political parties would have reconciled had the word "recommendation" been used while declaring the new induction in the cabinet.

Be that as it may, the mood of the political parties who do not see their "friendly" faces in the cabinet expansion is understandably is of confrontation.

An excessively annoyed Nepali congress led by Girija babu will in all likelihood take up this challenge. So will perhaps do the UML.

It remains yet to be seen whether the mood of confrontation that is surely in between the monarch and the major political parties lasts for long or fizzles out.

An infuriated Congress stalwarts have already initiated talks of the formation of a constituent assembly in order to send signals to the King that they were in favor of a constitutional monarchy till the latter remained within the limits of the constitution. The UML too will perhaps convince its job-less cadres to prepare for a major agitation. However, question could be raised about the ability of the political parties to garner support from the lay men for their movement yet in the embryonic stage for it is these lay men that have been badly deceived by the parties who expect people's support this round as well. The smaller parties will take some time to decide on whether it would be appropriate to wage a movement against the King at this stage or will be willing to settle the differences amicably.

Political analysts fear what would happen if the now disgruntled politicos and others join hands with the Maoists and wage a joint move to press the monarch to confine himself within the limits of the constitution?

To avoid such imaginary clashes, it would be advisable to the concerned parties to shun differences in the larger interest of the nation and the system.

The monarch is wise. Wisdom would prevail in and among political parties, hope analysts.

UML leader considers insurgency as a force

Kathmandu: In what could be described as a major "policy speech" of the UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal—the GS of the party, has announced Tuesday that his party's "silence" acquired of late should not be construed as the party's weakness.

Monsieur Nepal was clearly hinting that his party will not tolerate any act from any quarters that undermined the "established" provisions of the 1990 constitution.

Mr. Nepal made these threat-loaded statements Tuesday while addressing a gathering of his party workers in Kathmandu.

In the process, Mr. Nepal also for the first time perhaps granted the Maoists insurgency the status of a political "force" suggesting that at the moment the country possessed four forces e.g. the congress, the UML, the monarchy and the Maoists insurgency.

To recall, the 1990 constitution was the product of the convergence of the first three forces which kept the country in a balance.

"The present political uncertainty must be solved arriving at a consensus by all the existing forces of the country", said the UML leader, Madhav Nepal.

Those who had been watching UML's political overtures vis-à-vis the Maoists insurgency since long opine that the UML declaring the Maoists as a force, compels one to conclude that the UML's policy towards the insurgency has taken a U turn.

To recall, Madhav Nepal's utterances have come at a time when only recently Maoists leader Krishna Mahara talking to the CNN maintained that his insurgency were not a terrorist outfit but a revolutionary one fighting for the cause of the people.

Should this mean that in the recent days and that too in the changed political context in the country, the UML has developed a sort of bonhomie relation with the leaders of the insurgency. If it is so then what could be said is that time permitting the UML might enjoy support from the insurgency for obvious reasons.

Mr. Nepal addressing his party workers also said that the month long program currently launched by the party was to tell them to remain prepared to face any eventuality. He, however, told the party workers that the UML believed in arriving at a consensus wherein all the political parties and the monarchy worked together to arrive at an amicable solution to the ailments plaguing the nation of late.

Analyzing Nepal's statement what becomes amply clear is that the party remains prepared for both: confrontation or consensus with the monarchy.

In the same vein, the UML leader also said that his party was ready to cooperate this government if it enjoyed "'executive powers".

The confrontational mood has got to be averted, opine political pundits of the capital district. But how be best left to the concerned ones in absence of an effective civil society in the country.

Shailaja's new stance mysterious

Kathmandu: Nepali congress led by Girija Prasad Koirala is at the moment debating whether it should push the idea of a constituent assembly or brush the matter aside for the moment.

The number one advocator of the constituent assembly in the congress is Nar Hari Acharya who by this time has already been able to convince his party colleagues like C.P.Bastola, Mahesh Acharya, Amod Upadhyaya, Dr. Yadav, Arjun Narsingh K.C and a host of others in favor of the demand for a constituent assembly.

Surprising as it may appear, the party top hat, Mr. Koirala, till now has remained tight-lipped over the matter. Insiders in the congress say that Koirala will push the demand for a constituent assembly only when the monarch declines to comply with his proposals and that being the reinstatement of the now defunct parliament.

It is surprising therefore that Koirala's own niece, Ms. Shailaja Acharya, who possess a track record of having supported her Uncle unconditionally differs with Koirala on the count of constituent assembly. This is not only mysterious but confusing too.

Biratnagarites claim that the elevation of Badri Mandal to the DPM post by the King last month allows now Shailaja Acharya to contest elections with no chances of embracing a defeat. To recall, Badri Mandal was the one who managed the defeat of Ms. Acharya last time and as per the agreement, Mr. Mandal will have no right to contest the elections which automatically means that Ms. Acharya will enjoy a walk-over.

In case Shailaja emerges victorious, her chances appear bright, opine Biratnagarites, for the country's prime ministerial post. If every thing goes smoothly, Shailaja could be the first lady prime minister of Nepal.

Is it due to that assurance that Shailaja is well against the formation of a constituent assembly. But why UML leader Woli also rejects the theory of constituent assembly.

To add to this confusion, DPM Mandal the other day hinted that if the Maoists came formally for the talks, the government might consider even the agenda of the constituent assembly.

All put together, confusion is replacing yet another confusion. Perhaps this is a glaring example of Nepal's conspiratorial politics.

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