I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Use of Article 127 clear!

Kathmandu: Fast paced Nepali politics outdoes itself this week. After the Election Commission publicizes its six phase election program, major political parties meet at the Prime Minister's and agree that elections are a difficult proposition and hence options be explored. Until last week, it appears, no one was willing to even think loudly of options, this week, the options will be the public agenda.

Notably, the Prime Minister's meet had one discordant note. The Nepali Congress under Girija Prasad Koirala is in no mood to share the government with Sher Bahadur Deuba. It is predictable thus that the Girija agenda now will be of agitation. Already the Girija dominated University Teacher's organization have begun their programs with demands from the blue suggesting that the timing is all purposive.

The Left that is hopeful of sharing government with Deuba will perhaps join in if Deuba doesn't oblige. The argument being placed is that if concurrence is that elections be postponed then a suitable democratic arrangement be made. Of course suitable here is to be defined as that which suits each political party and it is this that is the most difficult to oblige.

Agreement that elections are to be postponed automatically activates Article 127 of the 1990 constitution for such an all-party accord to be legitimate. Outside of the fact that the Prime Minister himself would have to question his own legitimacy and should be, moreover, deliberating over his own resignation on grounds of his own inability to deliver, how can an all-party government is to be formed at Deuba's own initiative is beyond the realms of our constitution. But this is ignored.

What is not ignored, however, is the possible use of Article 127 by the King. Demands for the reinstitution of the parliament accompanied that with demands for an interim all-party government in attempts to make sure that the King's choices are limited to that dictated by the political parties. Anything else and they are likely to raise the "democracy under shackle". The constitution , however, is clear. The King must use his discretion to remove current constitutional difficulties. This is what residual powers mean.

Deuba's Himalayan failure paves way for an all party government !

Kathmandu: As predicted in our previous issue, Nepalese politics appears to be heading towards a "reconciliation" among various political parties in order to enjoy seats in an still embryonic all-party government.

As is usual, the UML—a party led by supposedly pseudo communists, has exhibited its excessive desire to be a part of such a government that would apparently be told to conduct the elections. This means that there would be yet another "unity" in shifting the dates of the November elections on grounds of lack of the needed security at times of the elections.

To recall, it was this UML party led by Monsieur Madhav Nepal which exhibited its extra eagerness to face the challenge of the Deuba sponsored and declared November elections perhaps concluding that it were a matter of a few months in capturing the Singh Durbar. However, things were not that easy for the UML as it guessed. We will discuss it later as to why the UML had to take its decisions back and which possible factors and forces could have forced the UML to change its attitude vis-à-vis the November elections.

The fact is that none of the political parties including the major ones, had a wish to face the election challenge. The Congress led by Girija Prasad Koirala vehemently criticised the November elections on two counts: firstly, it came as a surprise for his party; secondly, the party saw a "grand design" in Deuba's declaration of the elections; the party in the meanwhile saw a vertical split which meant that their total strength too had been split and fourthly and perhaps most importantly the party was not in government. Koirala knew what it meant for a party in facing up an election challenge which was neither in government nor it enjoyed even a "talking terms" with the chief of the executive who has been told to conduct the elections. And hence a clever Koirala summarily rejected the idea of the elections and repeatedly told his cadres that it was not yet sure that his party would take part in an election called on by his nearest political rival—Deuba.

For the rest of the smaller parties like that of the RPP and the NSP and other minor Left parties, the convening of the elections in November or by the end of next November makes little difference. However, for the RPP it could be slightly different because it is one of the beneficiary of the congress' vertical split. If the UML is the major gainer from the congress split, then it is equally true that the RPP should be the second one.

As regards the Sadbhavana, this party believes for obvious reasons more in raising its citizenship issue for the men in the Terai plains than in other equally important national issues. Thanks that the NSP leaders know their strength and theirs bagging number of seats and hence wish to play one against the other and manage seats in any government. All that they need is a portfolio in the establishment.

Now that the name-sake and the lame-duck prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has himself hinted that he too favored the shifting of the November elections on grounds of security and on count of the "pressures" from political parties and civil society members, a few things come to the fore.

Firstly, it means that Deuba himself was not sure of the elections being held on the scheduled; secondly, Deuba knew that his off-the-cuff declaration of the elections were his short-sightedness and that he did so only to create panic among political parties more so in the Koirala camp which had challenged his decisions; thirdly; by hinting that the elections could not be held on time and that it be shifted for some more months later means that he too "subscribes" to the views of IGP Pradip Rana; fourthly; his decision to postpone the elections could be a ploy to extend his own dwindling longevity in government; who knows, fifthly, it could be also a tactic to bring in the Maoists personalities in the much publicized all-party government? And finally, it could be a hint from the insurgent quarters to postpone the elections so that if the talks with the government came to a happy conclusion, the former might face the election challenge in order to facilitate their grand-entry into the main political stream?

Possibilities galore!

But then when the ongoing talks with the Maoists have not been officially declared, what is the guarantee that the Maoists will take part in the elections and help restore normalcy in the country. What is the guarantee that the much talked all-party arrangement in the offing will convince the insurgents? What if such an arrangement too failed? Will not then such an arrangement be considered by the lay men a simple and very naked ploy to enjoy the booty being in the government?

Coming back to the UML's change of mind regarding the November elections, psephologists hint that the communists could have altered their brain because a secret survey conducted by their own men concluded that if they participated in the November election they could manage only forty seats. The UML's decision to take part in Deuba's all-party government that will perhaps conduct the now shifted elections has come when UML's top-notch, Mr. Nepal, has freshly returned from his New Delhi trip. This should explain the UML's new strategy.

Now that Deuba has decided to postpone the elections for a later period, he possesses no authority to remain in power. In effect, say analysts, he should resign on moral grounds. And if he is told by the King to continue, he could do so or else he should resign immediately. Indeed, his validity as prime minister ceases on November 13. How he will or is expecting to continue as nation's Premier attracts the attention of the constitution. The King will perhaps come to his rescue through the use of article 127 and extend his tenure.

In essence, people now question his constitutional status: he was elected by the congress; he declared the elections against the wishes of the party which elevated his ranks to the premier; he was expelled from his own party; he caused a split in his own party; his own new party was denied the tree symbol; he is now the president of a party which is not the one which made him the Premier and finally he has hinted that he can't conduct the elections which he himself declared.

All put together, Deuba is a big failure. This also explains his political acumen indeed.

-Peace and Security in SA-
President Musarraf favors "Trade of Peace" with India

Kathmandu: The Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, Pakistan, had organized a two-day International Conference on "Peace and Security in South Asia", 19-20 September, 2002.

Various scholars, Professors and veteran Security analysts/strategicians from all over the world had participated the International Conference, it is learnt.

Addressing the inaugural function, the Pakistani President General Perrvez Musharaf said that the forum of SAARC needed to be made more "pro-active" to play its role in regional conflict resolutions. Rejecting the Indian notion of "bilateralism" President Musharraf stressed the need for getting involved in a multilateral or SAARC based resolution of disputes.

With the demise of the cold war, the president said, dialogue and "constructive engagement" have become the characterizing feature of the present time. " We must find ways and means to bring South Asia in step with prevailing climate of peaceful resolution of disputes, cooperation and economic development, the President added.

Referring to his recent visit to the USA, the president in uniform said that he reiterated offer of a "Trade of Peace" to India. It consists of , clarified the President, peaceful resolution of disputes; no war pact, mutual reduction of forces and de-nuclearization and finally the economic cooperation. But, he regretted, instead of taking hand of friendship, India was intent on pursuing the path of coercive diplomacy. "The trade of peace being offered by us, will be of such greater benefit to the people of India and the rest of the South Asia rather than the trade of nuclear weapons being built by India, the military man turned politician continued

"Brinkmanship and sabre-rattling will not solve any problem", said the president and stressed the need to sit across the table in order to thrash out the differences. "This is also the position and the wish of the rest of the world," he added.

Welcoming the President, the chairman of the Institute of Strategic Studies Mr. Agha Shahi said, " The institute, since its inception in 1973, has been involved in promoting and deepening dialogue(s) among scholars from various parts of the world, in order to promote a better understanding of regional as well as international issues that have a direct bearing on Pakistan's national interest, and on the rest of the countries belonging to the South Asian region.

Home to twenty three percent of the world's population, south Asian cultures are some of the richest and oldest in the world. They also reflect a wide variety of a admixture and assimilation. However, cultural pluralism has quite often proved as a barrier rather than bridge to the western idea of a nation-state and fostering of a feeling of regional harmony among the south Asian states of India, Pakistan, , Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Maldives.

The hair-raising events of 9/11 has definitely brought increased international focus on South Asia in terms of military confrontation of the two South Asian protagonists over Kashmir. The Sub-Continent has thus become one of dangerous place on earth as both are equipped with nuclear weapons. A solution to this core issue becomes all the more imperative, following the enunciation of the doctrine of pre-emptive self-defence by US president George Bush. If acted upon against Iraq would set a dangerous precedent.

The doctrine of pre-imperative self-defense justifying unilateral military action based on a subjective assessment of a potential future threat from international terrorism or from possession of weapons of mass destruction, is pregnant with alarming implications for the security of the smaller states and the stability of the world order, not to speak of the contradictions of pre-emptive military strikes with international law, in particular Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations which recognizes the right of individual and collective defense in the specific case of an armed attack by an aggressor state.

Dr. Shireen M. Mazari, Director General of the Institute of Strategic Studies made the opening remarks highlighting the instability factor in South Asia and stressed the need to work together for peace, stability and cooperation in South Asia.

In two days conference, papers on "Strategic for Peace and Security in South Asia, " War on Terrorism & Role of Major Power in South Asia, Security of Small States, " role of International Organizations, Role of Civil Societies, Media & NGOs" "Models of Conflict Resolution & the Kashmir Issue, "Pakistan's option on Kashmir as seen by an outsider", Future Prospects for cooperation in South Asia", " Economic Cooperation & Development" were presented by the attending scholars and invited fruitful discussions.

Pakistan's newly appointed Foreign Secretary Mr. Riaz Khokhar, made the concluding remarks.

He said that one of the main impediments to progress and prosperity in the region were the overly stretched tensions and disputes between India and Pakistan, the two largest countries of the region. "That is what gets projected in the international media and attracts the attention of the public and world leaders to the detriment of development issues which are so critical for our region", lamented Khokhar.

. Apart from the obvious need to look at the unrealized potential of SAARC to play a meaningful role in this context, it would be important to also recall that tensions persist not only because of the absence of effective international mechanisms to resolve disputes but because they are not utilized or completely ignored.

Mr. Farooq Sobhan, president of the B'desh Enterprise Institute also spoke on the occasion.

Nepal was represented by Shri Keshav Raj Jha, former Ambassador to the Republic of France and currently the president of Nepal Council for World Affairs.

Participants from China, France, Germany, Pakistan, Sri Lanka Japan and a host of scholars from other countries attended the two day seminar.

Maoists September 21 statement changes the course of Nepali politics

Kathmandu: The Maoists are silent after issuing the September 21 statement wherein they declared that they will sponsor yet another Nepal closure that will begin from November 11 and will continue till the election date—November 13.

Through the same statement the insurgents had repeated their stand point that they will exhibit "flexibility" for the talks provided the government too reciprocated.

The insurgents' last statement had its effect felt on the government for it was after the issuance of this statement that Deuba too exhibited his "flexibility".

The flexibility exhibited by both the warring sides gave solace to the panicked population indeed. However, since then neither the government nor the Maoists have clarified their latest position on matters related to the resumption of the talks.

High placed sources though claim that the "two" were attending talks at junior levels but remain tight lipped in divulging the details of such talks.

The government's flexibility for the talks is understandable because the Maoists vowed to disturb the elections. The Maoists September 21 statement also apparently came as a boon for those political parties who too wished not to enter into their own constituencies for fear of being attacked by the insurgents and preferred to remain in the capital district and issuing statements against the Deuba setup.

Moreover, the September 21 statement signed both by Prachanda and Bhattarai has amply paved the way for the formation of an all-party government because it practically capped the possibility of the November 13 elections.

Some quarters even say that there has been a tacit understanding in between Prachanda and Deuba and concurrently in between Koirala and Prachanda. If it is so then what could be concluded is that Prachanda's political acumen remains par excellence.

If Prachanda in having arrangements with Deuba has allowed the latter with some breathing space and time for initiating talks then his supposed links with Koirala has allowed the latter to consolidate his party in the face of his rival steering the mantle of the government.

Be that as it may, Prachanda's September 21 statement apparently came as a boon for all who preferred not to face the election challenge at least at a time when the threat from the insurgency had increased by leaps and bounds.

Summing up, Prachanda's last statement remains pivotal, opine political analysts, in bringing about a visible change of late in Nepali politics which is all set to enter into a new surprising phase indeed.

Pakistan Ambassador visiting FNJ

Kathmandu: The Federation of Nepalese Journalists', FNJ, is greeting the newly accredited Pakistan Ambassador to the Nepali Court at its premises this Friday afternoon, it is learnt from the FNJ sources.

During the meeting with the Pakistan envoy, the FNJ would like to urge the Pakistani diplomat to remain instrumental in bringing the media men of both the nations together.

Nepal and Pakistan both are the powerful members of the SAARC movement.

During the interaction with the Pakistan Ambassador, the FNJ would also raise the issue that the Nepali students were facing in Pakistan due to the sudden increase in their visa fees or something like that which has been causing extra financial burden on them. The FNJ will in all probability seek the support of the good offices of the Kathmandu based Pakistan embassy in sorting out the financial problems currently being faced by the Nepali students currently studying in Pakistan.

The FNJ president, Tara Nath Dahal, hopes that this meeting will bring the media men of the two countries even more closer.

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