I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Opposition sure to Royal move!

Kathmandu: By time of publication, government will perhaps been formed. The posture of opposition to the King's action will have been gradually toned down. But there will be no doubt that mainstream political parties, particularly the Congress and the UML will be poised to strike once they reconsolidate their diminished public support in preparation of the coming elections.

The task ahead for any government is an extremely difficult one. The convoluted political process of the past years has rendered national institutions bankrupt in the moneys and manpower. The Maoists issue is pregnant with the possibilities of new organized alignments. Both bureaucracy and the education sector will not have had adequate breathing space for government to demand the level of performance asked of it. Indeed, it is in the anticipation for performance that the public at large have refused to cooperate with repeated attempts by organized political parties to demonstrate on the streets in opposition to the Royal move.

One sterling indicator of the distance between the political organizations and the public at large is the fact that those who have condemned the Royal move are only those in the political sector. Predictably, political parties, their student, trade unions and legal wings plus the media persons and institutions linked with them have chosen to distance themselves from the move. The organized non-political sector at large seems to have openly welcomed it to the extent that the all-powerful Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry, FNCCI, has outright instructed the political parties to cooperate with His Majesty the King. Of course, the total travel industry, the largest non-agricultural employer in the country, has reasons to be gleeful. As it is the country is poised for major change. Much will depend on the behavior of the political organizations who still retain the monopoly of organized politics in the country. There are plenty of reasons suggesting that their cooperation will neither be wholehearted nor sincere. They have been removed from their "legitimate" source of "lubrication" for their organizations. They face an electorate without the clout of proximity to political power. They face the Maoists who will now be more belligerent in their desperation. Their international support will have been bewildered by the manner with which it has been demonstrated that public support has been exhausted for them. Reclaiming this public support will be the number one political priority and so opposition is inevitable.

Deuba went too far dancing Deuda:

Kathmandu: Deuba's tenure as the prime minister of this nation came to a grinding halt on the fateful night of last Friday when the constitutional monarch sacked him on grounds of him being "incompetent" to assume the post of the chief of the executive of the nation. Understandably, he must now be suffering from acute withdrawal system as an addict would suffer from giving up nicotine, however, it was evident, that Deuba's addiction for power would eventually lead him to this doom.

The same person who in the history of these past 12 years parliamentary practices, mostly violated all the constitutional proviso now calls the monarch's action unconstitutional.

If one may recall his remarks made few months back where he suggested that "people may not believe what he says since it changes overnight but they needed to believe the king" so he too must abide by king's prescription and work to better his own health (moral) as well as that of the nation.

Perhaps, no prime minister had ever misused so much of nation's resources, than did Mr. Deuba within his two primeministership. He will be remembered as a prime minister who was able to launch a new party from within, that too using all the state resources and machinery including the state owned and controlled media. What sorts of a precedent it has set he will see as the time unfolds.

The Oval office meeting should have been used as an opportunity to raise some of the pressing issues and dilemmas brought about by the force of globalization and that there was a direct link between poverty, underdevelopment and human right abuses and terrorism. Instead of begging for a few extra million dollars he should have been able to offer Nepal's own perspective on development. When meeting with Mr. Blair he should have told him flatly that Britain now needed to construct her own global agenda and show the world where and what ideal did she stand for and what other nation can learn from British experiences.

Instead, his meeting with these two top-hats from the US and the UK were presented in Nepali media in a way as to boost his own position. The repeatedly aired Oval office meeting was used to generate the impression that the American president give audience in his oval office only to Deuba as if the rest of the head of the governments were greeted in Kentucky Louisville or for that matter in Las Vegas.

There is a sort of traditional dance in the far western part of Nepal where Deuba's hometown is and is called Deuda dance. It is being telecast in Nepal T.V. since two years or so at time of this particular festive occasion.

He danced and is yet dancing with hard core and declared corrupts like Gachhedar, Khadka, Wagle, K.C and Gupta most of whom will soon be put behind the bars should the CIAA speed up its activities.

In sum, Deuba brought his political fall himself and hence he must now reconcile with the changed realities.

King's move; interpretations galore

Kathmandu: Did the King exceed his constitutional limits? How the Royal move has been taken up by the population? How the national parties will take up this Royal intervention? What would be the comments from the international community in this regard? What would happen now?

These are some of the questions being discussed since last Friday by the lay men and the politicians alike indeed by the international community based in Kathmandu.

Some console themselves. Some have become impatient. The rest leave the probable answers to those questions to the turn of events that is yet to unfold.

However, what is for sure is that the Royal intervention through the use of all powerful article 127 has created ripples not only in Nepal but abroad as well which is only but natural.

While the Constitutional monarch's Friday's address to the nation has been able to send frightening signals in the political sector, then equally true is that the same message has been taken in highest esteem by those who either did not participate in the functioning of the System since 1990 or were summarily ignored by the men handling the System.

Also true is the fact that those who have been condemning the Royal intervention were those who either were beneficiaries of the current system or were the hangers-on of the same beneficiaries.

"There is nothing to panic", said a political scientist. "Things will come to order soon as the King in his statement has spelt out His total commitment for the continuation of the system to which He has offered a mild jolt", continues the same scholar.

Elaborating his own explanation he goes on to say: " It is not a Coup de'etat. If it were so, the King would not have expressed his out and out commitment for the system. Add to this the King's address to the nation does not talk of suspending basic fundamental rights as enshrined and guaranteed by the 1990 constitution. All that he apparently wishes is a system that functions in a true democratic manner".

However, yet another political scientist on conditions of anonymity claims that the monarch's move might be a pious one and initiated with good intents and motives but yet it is undoubtedly a sort of mini-Coup de'etat for the manner the King has dismissed His Prime Minister and issued "orders" to take shape, the 1990 constitution does not allow Him to do so.

In this scholar's opinion, the King's attack on Deuba government last Friday also reflects that the constitutional monarch too wishes to "assert" some of His "lost" powers at the time of framing of the 1990 constitution.

The third scholar dismisses both the first and second comments and thus furnishes his own explanation.

He says, " Well ! it is indeed a mini-coup de'etat. The manner the King has presented himself before the nation does hint that He would wish to attack the future governments should the latter commit mistakes or for that matter blunders of the sort of Deuba. The Friday's move will time permitting act like a precedent and a constant danger will lurk over the heads of future governments. Though the King's act is far from being constitutional but yet His move has enjoyed support from the majority of the population. This is very important and should be taken as a warning by the politicians handling the present system".

Interpretations galore.

Back in the political sector, this political paraphernalia remains panicked as of today for it fears what if the King goes far beyond the present intervention?

The not too tough but instead the mild-comments that have emanated from Congress, UML, the RPP and the Sadbhavana quarters does amply reflect that the political parties issuing such comments could not summarily blame the King for this intervention. Instead. Most of the major political parties have some how or the other blamed Deuba and his government in having brought this sudden Royal intervention.

Add to this the international comments that have come from India, United States and Japan, too do not take the Nepal events as a grave one. However, they all reiterate that the Constitutional monarchy and democracy were the two strong pillars in the Nepalese scheme of political things. This if further analysed would mean that these nations wish to send signals to the Nepali political parties not to "dismiss" or "minimise" the role of Nepal's constitutional monarch. However, there is a mild hint to the monarch as well. It signals the monarch(y) not to exceed its constitutional limits and help support the system.

Pakistan ready to support Nepal in her hour of need

-Ambassador Zameer Akram

Kathmandu: The newly accredited Pakistan Ambassador to Nepal, Zameer Akram, has said that the "current period for Nepal is a challenging one and his country would be all willing to support Nepal in her hour of need that is within Pakistan's capabilities".

Ambassador Akram made these friendly remarks while talking to a select gathering of Nepalese press organized under the aegis of the International Relations Committee of the Federation of the Nepalese journalists last week.

The Pakistani dignitary also said that Nepal-Pakistan bilateral ties stood at a very matured level at the moment but then yet the potentials which both the country possessed had not been fully tapped.

Talking on Nepal's accession to the WTO body, Ambassador Akram assured Nepal that his country, a key player in the WTO scheme of things, would be more than willing to support Nepal in her bid to enter into the WTO arrangement.

As regards political relations between Nepal and Pakistan, the diplomat reiterated that President Musarraf's last visit to Nepal at time of the eleventh SAARC Summit did contribute in promoting the bilateral ties.

Speaking on the South Asian scenario, Ambassador Akram described the region to be a "dangerous" part of the world for the region had already become a nuclearised one.

Referring to the tensions in the South Asian region, the Pakistani diplomat without mentioning the name of India underscored the need to "resolve the existing disputes" ( implied in between Pakistan and India) through the use of established "international" instruments.

Prior to this, the FNJ President Tara Nath Dahal assured the Pakistani envoy of his support in enhancing Nepal-Pakistan bilateral ties particularly at the people to people level through the use of the media.

The Director at the Information department, HMG/N, Mr. D. Khatiwada too expressed his strong commitment for the expansion of contacts in between the media men of the two countries.

The President of the Press Copuncil, Nepal, Mr. Harihar Birahi, opined that it was time that media men of the two countries visited each other's countries in order to exchange ideas and opinions on matters of regional and international events.

Gopal Thapaliya of the SAFMA wished the envoy a successful tenure in Nepal.

Mr. N.P.Upadhyaya, coordinator, International Relations Committee, FNJ, briefed the functioning of the Federation.

Ambassador Akram was assisted by his colleague Mr. Kamal Ahmed-First Secretary ( Press and culture) at the embassy.

King will set the system in right track, intellectuals hope

Kathmandu: Sources close to the freshly deposed Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is not irritated for being so "unceremoniously" sacked by the constitutional monarch but instead he is at loss for the King dubbing him as "incompetent" prime minister.

In effect the monarch has two times stated in his Friday's address to the nation that Deuba was an "incompetent" prime minister.

There is nothing to panic. His Majesty the King has only reiterated what his own former party colleagues, the friends in the UML and the lay men had been saying about him since long more so after he decided that he could not conduct the election on a time he himself had managed to declare.

For the lay men Deuba is not only an incompetent personality but is a man lacking intellect as well. For example, Deuba wished that the UML party more so its powerful leader Madhav Nepal come to his rescue and extend him the needed support so that a sort of pressure is built on the King and the King in turn gave a second thought to His previous decision. This meant that Deuba hoped that Madhav Nepal and his party would support him in his hour of need. However, the fact is that a shrewd Madhav Nepal instead of supporting Deuba presented himself as the next prime minister and sought the support of the monarch in this regard.

News leaked and Deuba came back to his senses. Deuba knew in advance that Madhav Nepal is a different stuff but yet why he relied on him is surprising.

Now that Deuba is already sacked and the King is committed to appoint a new prime minister who would be probably told to conduct the now suspended elections.

Who assumes the Premiership is not important. What is important is the events that took place in Kathmandu much ahead of last Friday incident.

Former Indian Ambassador K.V.Rajan makes a "friendly" trip to Kathmandu. He meets practically all the Nepali leaders. In the process, the former Indian diplomat meets the prime minister twice. He leaves for Delhi Thursday afternoon accomplishing his unknown mission in Kathmandu.

The King dismisses the Deuba government the next evening that is on Friday.

This is not all.

The timing of the Nepal event and the issuance of the Indian statement regarding the same is very interesting indeed.

Friday event happens in Kathmandu. The Indian establishment becomes suddenly alert. It quickly issues a statement the very next day regarding Nepal happenings. The promptness with which Indian establishment issued its comments on Nepal incident gives an impression that the Indian comments were kept ready to be released. All that they waited for was the happening of the events in Nepal. This is how the Indian intelligence system works in Nepal.

Be that as it may, the other comments coming from other countries as well too appear to possess "suggestions" only for both the political parties and the monarch. All that the statements from abroad say is sorting out the present day crises by sticking to the provisions of the constitution. None of the countries, for example, India, United States and the UK, have described the King's move as "unconstitutional" which must have come as a surprise for the deposed prime minister. Instead, the countries issuing statements have stated that democracy and constitutional monarchy should go together in this country.

Last but not the least, intellectuals believe that the monarch will live up to his commitments for the system which he has been reiterating time and again.

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