I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Meaningful silence on real issues!

Kathmandu: Media and politics are off on a tangent this week suggesting that the real issues being undertaken behind the scenes are not to be talked about by politicians and published in the media. When someone did talk of the existing reality, example, the Inspector General of Police, Pradip Rana, he seems to have broken the golden rule of silence and so drew wrath.

All the Inspector General said in an aside was that the elections would better be postponed for two months. For us the laymen he seems to have said the rather too obvious. What the politicians and the media are not saying is that elections as and when scheduled appear an impossibility. The government must say that they will provide the security to hold elections as scheduled. The rest of the politicians must say that they will go to the elections given the necessary security. The media as handy-tools of the politicians must occupy themselves reporting these. And so, the most obvious truth, that the elections will not take place, as believed by the man on the street goes uncovered in the media and is not reflected by politicians.

To add fire to this vagrancy, the politicians and the media will want to keep quiet on the behind the scene negotiations. How can the interests of super-democrat Girija Prasad Koirala meet with super-Maoists Babu Ram Bhattarai without any parley? What the lay public know is that both Babu Ram Bhattarai and Koirala benefit if elections do not take place. And if Republican Bhattarai can step-up the armed conflict to press their program to sabotage elections Koirala would rather step-up his known tirade against the monarchy which he would rather involve for all and sundry in utterance after utterance.

This of course is reflected in the media. The King, it seems, to be dragged in any discussion on the current state of affairs which is strange enough. The "democracy under threat" bogey is to be stepped-up for obvious reasons. But the fact remains that the initiatives lie elsewhere. It is Deuba and Girija and Madhav Nepal that has the initiative to be granted the Maoists. For plain reasons, it is the anti-corruption authority, the Election Commission and the security agencies that have theirs. The two, politicians and the constitutional agencies seem so much at odds that the silence on real issues do carry much meaning.

Nepal's political leaders swinging Prachanda's way!

Kathmandu: Nepal's political pundits remain puzzled over the fact as to how a political personality whose whereabouts are still unknown even to the nation's security apparatus could maneuver his counterparts in other political parties and make them all individually and collectively to swing his way.

Political analysts maintain that the Maoists leader Prachanda alias Pushpa Kamal Dahal has at different intervals of time in the recent years been able not only to seduce Nepali leaders to advocate his preferences but also managed to press the rival-government to prepare the grounds for talks. This is incredible. But then this is the reality.

Beginning Deuba to Koirala and Madhav Nepal and Bam Dev Gautam at one time or the other have met with Prachanda and listened to the latter's proposals for arriving at an amicable solution to the imbroglio.

Let's take case by case analysis.

Firstly, it was this insurgency which saw an enemy in Prime Minister Koirala who preferred to crush the insurgency while Bhattarai's disciple -- Mr. Sher Bahadur Deuba -- was preparing a report on how to deal politically with the Maoists and their political demands. Understandably, if Koirala that time was the declared enemy of the insurgency then equally true is the fact that the Maoists considered Deuba to be a person "sensitive" to their case.

Some even say that Koirala's unceremonious ouster from the Premiership some two years ago had tacit support from the quarters of the insurgents as well. Albeit, the UML too supported Deuba-Bhattarai combined move for Koirala's ouster.

Nepal's conspiratorial politics is ever dynamic. When Deuba became the Prime Minister, as per the congress rule, the ousted prime minister Koirala had to oppose his rival's move and he did so to the hilt to the extent that Koirala is exhibitedly very close with the insurgents. Albeit, Koirala has exhibited his leniency for the insurgency after he made several trips to New Delhi. The New Delhi factor is significant indeed.

This means that Prachanda made both Koirala and Deuba to swing his way.

The UML of late, knowingly or unknowingly, has toed Koirala's line vis-à-vis the Maoists insurgency. The UML gave a new boost to its "toe-Koirala line" regarding the Maoists issue after the party leader Madhav Nepal was accorded a Red-Carpet welcome by the New Delhi establishment. This means that Prachanda has remained successful not only in bending the entire UML paraphernalia in championing the Koirala line for a dialogue prior to the elections but also creating a "permanent" rift in the congress which stands today as a divided lot.

One more point needs to be discussed. It is regarding the Maoists attitude towards the monarchy.

The Maoists insurgency has been blowing hot and cold about the monarchy. Firstly, it wished the formation of a republican state in the country which meant that they disliked the institution of the monarchy in the country. Very recently, they have ventilated that they wish to frame a new "constitution" with the prevalence of the same "forces" which contributed to the advent of the present order and provided a constitution. This clearly hints that they admit the monarchy as a force. In doing so, Prachanda has apparently exhibited his changed "soft" corner for the monarchy as well. The climax of it all was that when a Maoists leader only recently talked to a broad-sheet daily that they were ready for a round-table talk with the government including the participation of the representatives not only from the political parties but from the Army and the Monarchy as well. Significant and meaningful revelations indeed.

All put together, what comes to the fore is that Prachanda has "used" practically all the political forces of the country at one time or the other suiting to his party's temporary needs. And the fact is that except the monarchy, all have danced to the tune of Prachanda.

This clearly means that Prachanda's political acumen far exceeds with those who have been at the moment handling the system.

Whom Prachanda lures next and what cards he possesses still under his sleeve will have to be carefully watched. What is for sure is that he has already lured the lay men and the members of the Nepali civil society who have been unequivocally been pressing the establishment side to prepare an environment for talks. ( See other story for comments on Prachanda's September 16 statement).

Maoists throw the ball in Deuba's court

Kathmandu: The Maoist insurgency supremo Prachanda is again in the news.

He is in the media headlines this week because he claims September 16 Maoists-sponsored Nepal Closure to have been a grand success.

He is in the news because he has issued yet another comparatively "soft" press statement dated September 16 ( we received it in the 16 evening itself ) wherein Prachanda has outlined a few things from his own perspective.

The September 16 statement is not that much different from his previous statements in the sense that he is talking on almost the same lines which he had outlined in the past.

But yet few things certainly differ.

The fresh statement firstly declares that the September 16 Nepal Bundh was a success. Secondly, the press release states that the government has been exhibiting its reluctance in having dialogues with their insurgency at a time when they wished to have it for what Prachanda claims "positive and forward looking" solution.

Similarly, the recent statement maintains that the government was in the process of limiting even the "limited" gains of the 1990 popular movement.

Fourthly, the statement yet again reiterates that a sort of "alliance" have got to be forged comprising of all "political parties"'; intellectuals and the "laymen"' in order to "create yet another "movement" against the establishment.

The press release dubs the November elections declared by the government as a "conspiracy" and that the elections were nothing but an "'illusion".

In the process, the statement maintains that the more there is delay in forging an alliance of the "parliamentary parties", the said "movement " will loose its steam.

Prachanda also warns that if the establishment continues to exhibit its reluctance for "positive and forward looking" solutions, the insurgency might intensify its "resistance".

However, there is a silver lining as well in Prachanda's September 16 statement. A deep analysis of the whole text forces political analysts to conclude that the insurgency is "desperate" for having talks with the government and in the process suggests all the political parties to "'press" those who appear reluctant in having dialogues with them. The statement implies that it is hinting at the establishment.

"We appeal all people-oriented political parties to press those who have been rejecting our offer of a cease-fire and meaningful dialogue and urge all concerned to create a sort of pressure on the other camp so that the dialogues could be held", is what Prachanda says at the end of his statement.

Looking at these, what becomes more than clear is that the insurgency too wishes to go on a cease-fire scheme as demanded by the civil society. Add to this, they also wish to attend the talks provided the talks thus held yielded "positive and forward-looking" solutions.

Perhaps for the first time Prachanda has mentioned that they were ready for what he prefers to call "talks-for-peace". This again means that the insurgency too apparently is tired of the continued use of violence and prefers now the restoration of peace in a country where it has already become a "rare" commodity.

Summing up, Prachanda is in favor of talks. The lay men wish talks. Nepali civil society prefers dialogue. Presumably, the entire international community too wishes the two rivals to come to the negotiating tables. It's time that the State as guardian of the population, proceeds in a way as wished by the people.

The ball definitely is in the government's court.

EC's half-hearted decision favors Koirala

Kathmandu: The Election Commission on Tuesday recognized the Congress party led by Girija Prasad Koirala as the real congress.

As per the fresh decision of the EC, the tree symbol now goes in favor of the Nepali Congress party headed by president Girija Prasad Koirala.

Concurrently, the EC has advised the Deuba-Congress to register a suitable name for its new Congress-party with preferred symbols at its office well within seven days.

The EC's Tuesday's decision puts to rest the Congress hullabaloo regarding which of the two would be awarded the real tree symbol.

The EC's fresh decision must have come as a bolt from the blue to Sher Bahadur Deuba and his supporters for this decision might damage the election prospects of the latter.

This means that the Koirala congress will now face the election challenge with a renewed vigor as the EC decision has not only gone in its favor but would in all likelihood enhance the already sinking prestige of the said party.

Question now arises as to what would happen to Deuba and his men in the party which has been denied the congress tree symbol?

This deserves a cerebral exercise. 

Firstly, since the tree symbol has already been a trademark of the Congress, any other symbol other than the Tree will at best be not recognized by the voters back in the villages. This means Deuba and his men will find it very difficult in convincing their "illiterate" voters who are well acquainted with the Tree and consider that particular symbol to be the real Congress. Secondly, the Tree symbol will provide president Koirala an edge over his rival Deuba which the latter can't simply dismiss. Thirdly, even Deuba's declared supporters now associated with him in the splinter Congress would wish to join the other camp considering the advantage of the symbol.

This means that Deuba might loose some of his near and dear supporters who might feel secured in joining and jumping to the other camp which has been recognized by the EC.

While the EC's present decision has enhanced the prestige of President Koirala for all the practical political purposes and reasons, it concurrently has stripped off the Deuba Congress of the charm and attraction which it was enjoying till Monday evening. It would now be very hard for Deuba to keep his followers intact. By and large, since the Congress activists were a dynamic political creatures who prefer more often than not to change their camps and hence time permitting if Deuba remained alone in his party then it would be no wonder.

While Koirala supporters have hailed this decision, the Deuba supporters dub the EC's decision as to have been motivated by political reasons.

However, the EC has made it abundantly clear that its decision made on Tuesday which allows now the Koirala Congress to use the Tree symbol at the approaching elections were not the final but a temporary one .

This means that the EC will take yet another six months to arrive at a permanent solution to the congress imbroglio.

Perhaps this is a glaring but a sad example of how Nepal's Election Commission functions, even deciding a matter of such a grave political dimension.

Nepali media men lacked professionalism alleges IPI

Kathmandu: The six member delegation from the International Press Union, IPI, Press Freedom Mission which visited Nepal from September 9 to 12, has already completed its mission and is back to its headquarters in Vienna.

The team was led by Director Prof. Johann P. Fritz.

At the conclusion of the visit, the team held a press conference to let the Nepali media men know about their impressions regarding the state of press freedom in Nepal.

According to the IPI delegation, the Nepalese Prime Minister assured them that the "'government had no intention to re-impose a nationwide State of Emergency. This puts to rest, says a press note issued by the IPI team, speculations that the government was about to take this measure in response to the recent spate of terrorist activities by the Maoists.

Speaking on the occasion, Prof Fritz said that his team held discussions with Chief Justice, the Chairman of the National Human Rights Commission, minister of Information, leading representatives of political parties, the members of the FNJ, the Press Council and other civil society institutions.

"Since the inception of the emergency on November 26, 2001, over 130 media men have been arrested, at least 20 of whom are still missing", says the IPI press note. When told by the team, Prime Minister Deuba assured the IPI delegation that he would see to it himself, said Prof. Fritz.

The IPI delegation has recommended that the IPI national committee, the Federation of the Nepalese journalists and the Nepal Bar Association jointly file petitions under the Habeas Corpus Act for journalists still in prison and for those whose whereabouts are still unknown.

The visit of the IPI, it is widely believed, apparently also served the purpose of expressing solidarity with the Nepali media who are working under difficult circumstances, and to encourage them to be more forthright in asserting their legal rights.

During the course of the press conference held on 11 September, the leader of the IPI team bluntly maintained that Nepali media men lacked "professionalism". He however, did not talk about what were the necessary requirements which made a journalist professional as wished by Prof. Fritz.

World Investment Report 2002 launched

Kathmandu: The Geneva based UNCTAD has released "World Investment Report 2002" yesterday, 17 September, 2002-it is learnt from the UN Information Center in Kathmandu.

This year's Report focuses on the "Role of Transnational Corporation, TNCs in the Export Competitiveness of Developing Countries".

FDI flows to the developing economies of Asia and the Pacific declined 24% last year to $102 billion, down from $134 billion in 2000, reports the freshly released report.

"Much of the downturn was due to a 60% drop in flows to Hong Kong, China, which had recorded massive inflows, $62 billion in 2000. If this is discounted, however, inflows last year were at the peak reached the previous decade. While they remained stagnant in North-East and South-East Asia, they increased significantly in South and Central Asia.

The Inflows into South Asia reached, says the report 2002, $4 billion, a 32% hike over the previous year. Of this, adds the report, $#.4 billion went to India, up 47%. This country, by far the largest recipient in the region, has been taking steps to liberalize its FDI regime further.

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