I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s

King must use his discretion!

Kathmandu: This week sees the parliamentary parties discussing the possibility of Royal intervention on their behalf with the realization that the current environment is inimical to the November elections. The government on the other hand insists that they will hold elections and provide security.

This development is potent. It is for the first time that our parliamentary political parties have admitted publicly that they are facing reversals at the grassroots on account of the Maoists and that their election campaign is being hindered. This is in contradiction to their public standpoints that elections must take place and that the government arguments favoring a re-imposition of the emergency have no grounds. The week saw parliamentary parties meet to discuss the security situation and its effects on the elections.

Perhaps more importantly the week for the first time saw our parliamentary parties publicly talk of the possibility of postponing elections with the intervention of the constitutional provision of the article 127 which provides residual powers of the constitution to the constitutional monarch. The significance lies in the fact that parliamentary parties must now turn to the King to get the system out of the current mess.

Of course, it is typical of our political sector that they should see themselves as the sole arbiters of the constitution and demand that the King should use article 127 in accordance to their dictates which, of course, should mean that the Royal use of the article 127 should be in a manner that solely favors them.

And, so, the field is open for such demands that the King should resuscitate the now dissolved parliament allowing , of course, to mean that our parliamentary parties represented in that parliament be allowed the monopoly they enjoy to provide the options to the elections. Yet another such demand emanating from these quarters comes in the shape of a coalition manned and shared by these very parliamentary parties to steer the country through elections. Many such similar permutations are likely to emerge as interpretations of the King's use of the article 127.

The fact, however, remains that the constitution doesn't dictate to the King on his use of that constitutional provision. It is moreover lost on our parliamentary parties that their role in the body-politic will revive only after elections. The King will find it political to entertain their advice but the use of the residual powers need not be constitutionally sound if only their advice is to be heeded.

BOX NEWS/ANALYSIS:

A sort of political "compromise" in the offing!

Kathmandu: Nepal's excessively conspiratorial policy is apparently all set to take a new "political" turn.

If the prediction of the political analysts is to come true, then very soon the nation will see a new political initiative which will perhaps do away with the present chaos that has been ailing the country of late.

However, in what form the said or the expected change appears is difficult to fathom but yet what is so far clear is that a sort of compromise between all the major political actors of the nation will be reached or have to be reached in order to bring back the nation to the rails. This arrangement might include the active participation of the "constitutional monarch" and unquestionably those of the Maoists as well.

A strange compromise is in the offing.

The aforesaid analysis has been arrived at by political pundits of the nation keeping in mind a few things which is as follows:

Firstly, the major political parties are playing double. If on the one hand they exhibit their eagerness to face the election challenge but internally they wish the election dates be shifted indefinitely so that in the mean time the establishment arrives at a meaningful solution to the Maoists imbroglio. The fact is that the political parties feel threatened to enter into their constituencies due to the possibility of the Maoists attacks which is what is happening in the districts and the villages. The fact is also that the leaders of the political parties, whether by design or otherwise, do not wish to support the government's measures in combating the Maoists threats in the villages with their presence in their own constituencies but instead prefer to cry foul against the establishment.

Secondly, the Nepalese security apparatus have time and again said that they could provide security at the time of the elections if it were held in so many phases. This clearly implies that the security personals were themselves not convinced that they could provide the needed security at time of the polls. This finally means that if the elections were held on time, the candidates will have to take risks on their own heads. The fact is that no body will wish to take such risks which is related with their longevity for understandable reasons.

Thirdly, even the government apparently has concluded that the possibility of holding of the polls on time is a joke and nothing more than a joke given the paucity of time and the proposals being pushed by the security systems of late. This means that the government too wishes some sort of loopholes to shift the election dates. But how is a problem for the government understandably. To do away with these technical problems, the government apparently wishes the King's mild intervention through the use of article 127 which is now more or less a certainty.

Fourthly, and this is what the political parties too wish. However, the difference is that the parties would wish the King's intervention "on advice" of the caretaker prime minister. Whether the King will seek his advice or proceed on his own is uncertain. However, even if the King proceeds with his own thinking, it can't be questioned constitutionally.

Fifthly, the compromise has to be reached soon because the Maoists have declared the election day as Nepal closure. IN effect the Nepal closure begins right from November 11 till 13—the election date.

All these put together, an all embracing political compromise is round the corner, conclude analysts.

Strip News/Analysis:

Prachanda's September 21 statement makes Deuba "flexible"?

Kathmandu: The September 21 statement released by the Maoists quarter apparently has pushed the Deuba government to the wall.

The latest statement has provided only two options to the perusal of the Deuba government: either to initiate dialogue for arriving at a "forward" looking political solution to their imbroglio or else face the consequences.

The statement which the insurgency claims to be the gist of its permanent central committee meeting held in the recent days dubs the November 13 elections as "'green-grass".

The fresh statement perhaps for the first time admits that the country at the moment remained at the crossroads of moving either on a forward path or just the otherwise. This means that the Maoists insurgency too accept that the country was really in a very bad shape politically speaking.

In the same vein, the statement, which has been signed by both the top hats of the insurgency, Prachanda and Dr. Bhattarai, maintains that "if a conducive atmosphere is prepared for arriving at a forward looking solution, we are ready to act responsibly and exhibit our flexibility to the extent that we could announce 'cease-fire' any time from now and will roll-back our programs of movement".

"But then if things go otherwise, we remain committed to continue the movement till the end", continues the statement dated September 21 which is considered to be the last one circulated from the Maoists quarters.

If the previous paragraphs hinted at the Maoists positive overtures wherein they exhibitedly wish to attend to the talks with the Deuba setup, equally disturbing for the political parties, the people and finally to the government is the announcement of their rather hair-raising programs in series if the government did not take their statement seriously.

The already declared program of the Maoists insurgents is as follows:

a-) a massive propaganda will commence right from September 22 which will continue till October 6, next month; b) beginning October 7 till October 27, programs will be held on matters related to various ethnic tribes plus programs at the regional and autonomous levels; c) October 27 will be observed as Bundh of the Terai plains and those areas where the Tharu population prevail in majority; d) a massive people-mobilization program will be accomplished beginning October 28 till November 10; e) November 11, 12, and 13 will be observed as Nepal Closure days.

The programs listed above were all of its own kind which if all put together is perhaps sufficient to create panic among the population.

Analyzing the whole text of Prachanda and Dr. Bhattarai what becomes pretty clear is that the insurgency too wishes a safe landing and is desperate for talks. Nevertheless, the insurgency is giving the impression to all and sundry that they wish to attend to the talks with the government in order to restore peace in the country as per the wishes of the vast majority of the Nepali population. The insurgents concurrently wish to send signals to the other rival warring camp that they were not a spent-up force and hence their mild tone must not be construed as their weakness or whatsoever. The insurgents appear ready to fight with the government forces ad infinitum but also concurrently hint that if positive gestures came from the other side they might change their belligerent stance an might facilitate the restoration of peace in the country by announcing a cease-fire.

By and large, the fresh statement from the Maoists quarter contains both: threat and a desire to attend to the talks.

No less significant is the Prime Minister's fresh revelations that he too wished talks but then the Maoists must be serious.

Now that Prachanda has thrown the ball in Deuba's court, it remains to be seen as to how the Deuba establishment takes up the matter. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Deuba's fresh utterances clear hint that he too has become bit "flexible" comparatively speaking and sees now the urgency for the resumption of the talks with the Maoists. Positive changes indeed.

However, what is for sure is that if the government wished to initiate dialogues with the other camp, the latter is hundred percent ready. What is also very much clear is that the Maoists camp will continue its fight with the government until the latter exhibits its sincerity for the talks for what they call to " arrive at a forward looking solution".

Analysts opine that positive overtures have to come from both the quarters to facilitate the environment for talks. Unless the talks begin, there is no question of arriving at a solution, whether it is a forward looking or something of a different sort as wished by the other camp.

Miscellaneous:

Secret move afoot to smuggle Veg. Ghee

Kathmandu. Ramu Yadav, the supposed brother of Chief Minister of the Bihar, India, Rabari Devi, and brother-in-law of the President of the Rastriya Janata Dal (RJD), Laloo Yadav, reportedly paid a secret visit to Kathmandu last fortnight, say informed sources.
Both the two relatives of the Bihar Chief Minister are learnt to have stayed in Hotel Saino located in the Durbar Marg, Kathmandu.

The visit in itself is intriguing and hence meaningful.

However, sources monitoring their clandestine trip to Kathmandu reveal that the two top-notch of Bihar politics met one Nepali businessman Atmaram Murarka, who is the President of the Nepali Ghee
and Oil Producers Association, and other traders as well.

The recently renewed Nepal-India Trade Treaty has placed ghee exports from Nepal to India under a
quota system. It is said that in opposition to that provision between Nepal and India, a tacit agreement has been reached between the Bihari leaders and the said Nepali businessman to openly export ghee from Nepal to Bihar.

According to available information compileed by a Left Weekly dated 10 September, Yadav pointed out that Nepal was the most serious victim of the Nepal-India Trade Treaty, followed by Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the States of India, which border Nepal.

He also said that the Treaty signed at the Central Level would not be acceptable to traders and industrialists.

A concerned person is reported to have told the Left weekly which in effect revealed this news for public consumption as back as early September that Ramu Yadav told Atmaram Murarka, (sic): "The
provision of the treaty will be summarily ignored, and any quantity of ghee will be
allowed to enter into India via Bihar, if Bihar government is paid a sum of Indian Rs 50 million." It is said that the amount has not yet been paid as proposed by Yadav.
This proposal of Ramu Yadav, who had visited Nepal as an envoy of Laloo Yadav, may benefit the ghee traders of Nepal directly, but in the long run, it will have a negative impact on the Nepal-India Trade Treaty.

"If any problem arises in the implementation of the Trade Treaty as a result of any secret agreement with Laloo Yadav of Bihar, Murarka himself will be held responsible," say those involved in the Ghee business.

Shalom Club, Nepal, takes-off

Kathmandu: The members of the Shalom Club, Nepal, Monday afternoon, observed their first General Convention in the presence of Israel's Ambassador to the Nepali Court, Mr. Avraham Nir.

Present on the occasion were mostly those Nepali intellectuals, bureaucrats, scholars and the likes who had been to Israel at different intervals of time and had returned enriching their knowledge on the topics for which they had been sent.

The ad hoc committee of the recently constituted Shalom Club, Nepal comprises of eleven members headed by Dr. Rabin Shakya.

Congratulating the members of the Shalom Club, Ambassador Nir said that if the scholars who had been to Israel in the past could contribute immensely for the rapid development of Nepal if all the brains were put together.

"With the experiences and knowledge that you all have gained while being in my country, if properly and tactfully utilized, could mean a lot for Nepal", said Ambassador Nir. According to Ambassador Nir, about 1100 Nepali nationals have been to Israel since the establishment of diplomatic relations and have been contributing for the development of Nepal.

The president of the Shalom Club, Dr. Shakya made it clear that any person who has already visited Israel can join the club and contribute to the promotion of Nepal-Israel friendship.

State Minister Balayar urged the Israeli side to extend its expertise in the expansion and promotion of "floriculture" in Nepal.

The program began with a musical event wherein Ms. Sanskriti Shrestha, an eight year old girl-child baffled the attending participants when she played Tabla-Duggi with all the finesse and bagged accolades. Her performance was simply superb.

Khetan favors government-Maoist talks at the earliest!

Kathmandu: Mohan Gopal Khetan, the business magnate with 150 years of business history in Nepal, once again delivers his poignant utterances! In an interview given to a vernacular weekly dated September 24, he defines the level of corruption that is rampant in our system: as fast as 200 kilometers per hour!

He has categorically lambasted the corrupt practices that is widely prevalent in our society. He terms the politicians as the elite capital-holders who has amassed it through their nonchalant and corrupt practices. He further goes on to say that this way the country is going to be nowhere.

Holding the politicians responsible for all the unpleasant developments prevailing in the society, Mr. Khetan poses the question, where had the politicians vanished on that fateful September 16 when the Maoists had disrupted normal life by calling a nation-wide strike? "The political parties issued statements and protested from their rooms. But who took to the streets to demonstrate their protest? Where are the parties who managed to bring crowds of 200,000 people in 1990?", questions the veteran businessman. He again opines that things would have been different had the parties taken to the streets with 500,000 people this time!

His customary insightful remark came when he says that there should be a constructive use of the Article 127 of the Constitution of the Kingdom of Nepal in order to find a way out of the present political imbroglio. According to him all parties, leaders and intellectuals should call on the King for the solution and form a government with everyone's participation. However, he says that such a government should make adequate arrangements with the Maoists as well. He viewed that a government without the required mandate is going to be of no help to the nation.

So far as the question Maoist problem is concerned, he is of the opinion that the scheduled election is not going to be successful should the government be unsuccessful in bringing the Maoists to the negotiating table. Citing examples from the history when the Maoists had actively taken part in the popular movement and the past general elections, he says that talks should be held at the earliest. More so, because they are also equally desirous of holding talks with the government. Furthermore, he severely criticizes the decision of holding the elections in 8 phases. It must not be more than 2 phases, he says.

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