I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
New interim government in the offing?

Kathmandu: - One scenario has it that an interim government is in the making. Formal talks with the Maoists, which begin this week, are, according to this school of thought, likely to conclude in an interim government as prescribed by the Maoists, which will oversee elections. Whether these polls will mean a constituent assembly is perhaps more a topic for the talks itself.

The interim government will perhaps put paid to the current constitution since it is hardly a requirement of the current constitution and so a constituent assembly is not impossibility. The participation and representation in the interim government has thus become grist for current speculation and so eyes turn towards happenings in the major political parties.

One school of thought has it that the UML is virtually split on the question of participation in the talks and a government formed by the King.

There is another that says that the Congress is now a divided house after Shailaja Acharya has stated her preference for talks and participation at the King’s initiative. The rest of the parties have virtually signaled the need for an all-party government. Moreover, the Maoists are said to not want the leadership of such a government to go to the major parties.

It is thus possible now to foresee, firstly, a change in government headed by a King’s nominee in which most political forces are represented at the King’s initiative on grounds of talks with the Maoists. It is also possible to suggest that the opposition currently being taken as the public standpoint of the major parties will be softened by their failure to muster the masses against the current Royal measure.

If these speculations hold ground then one may well predict major change next month at the conclusion of the formal talks. The direction so far appears predictable too.

Chechnya’s political issue sorted out politically

-Ambassador Valery Nazarov

Kathmandu: Good news has come from Grozny, Chechnya.

If every thing goes as expected by the Chechen population, the Chechens would have now restored permanent peace.

Describing the recent events in Chechnya, the Russian Federation Ambassador, Mr. Valery V. Nazarov talking to a select group of Nepali media men, March 28, said that "about 89% of the total electorate, out of 540,000 people, took part in the March 23 held referendum and that more than 95 of them voted for a new Constitution of Chechnya and Acts on the President and Parliamentary elections.

Elaborating the gains of the said referendum, Ambassador Nazarov made it clear that the RF conclusion has come to true which always favored a resolution to the Chechens issue to be sorted out by the Chechens themselves and the Chechens by engaging themselves in the referendum have made a clear choice for peace, in favor of positive development together with the Federal Center, the Russian federation.

"This is no less an achievement", the Ambassador continued.

Talking about those Chechens who still possessed Arms and wish to negate the gains of the March 23 referendum, the Ambassador said, " from this moment they are fighting not only for their false ideals, but are directly fighting against their own people".

"Their actions run directly counter to the interests and the will, clearly and explicitly expressed at the referendum", said the Ambassador adding that the referendum was held in an organized manner and that international observers monitoring the referendum haven’t so far found any serious violations during the voting and recognized it as "democratic" and "legitimate".

The Chechen people, according to the RF Ambassador, were offered a chance to chose their destiny and they realized it in the full measure and that vote cast during the referendum is unambiguous which implies that the citizens of Chechnya see no future in their isolation from the Federal center.

"The Chechen republic has once and for all entered into the political jurisdiction of the RF", said a beaming Russian dignitary.

Nepali observers maintain that the referendum was though very important step in the regard of restoration of peace in and around Chechnya but then still so many other related political issues remain to be mutually sorted out, for example, granting of general amnesty for those rebels who didn’t commit any heinous crimes; formation of legal bodies of power, and talks on the agreement on delimitation of authorities between the Chechens and the Russians.

Upon the conclusion of the March 23 Referendum, the Chief Election Commissioner, Mr.Abdul-Karim Arsakhnov said that "now every thing must be done to meet the hopes and the aspirations of the hundreds of thousands of residents of Chechnya who took part in the plebiscite and supported the constitution".

Similarly, the RF President Vladimit Putin also has hinted that it was now urgent to start drafting a treaty on delineation of authority between the federal center and the Chechen republic.

According to the Russian diplomat, President Putin has ordered his government senior officers to urgently do every thing within the shortest possible time in order to complete work on the plans for the reconstruction of devastated Chechen republic.

"The results of the plebiscite are a heavy blow on the positions of Aslan Maskhadov and his cohorts", the Ambassador revealed.

Concluding his remarks, Ambassador Nazarov said that the Federal Center and the Chechen leadership are determined to consistently move towards the political settlement of the Chechen problem.

Maoists need to clarify certain pertinent questions

Kathmandu: The Maoists rebels appeared before the Nepali population on March 29 with a big bang presumably to the utter displeasure and discomfiture of the socalled major political parties who feel that they have been denied their due role in the whole affair.

The Maoists appeared in Kathmandu while the King was in India.

The Maoists notably appeared in the capital city when a day or two prior to their emergence here the Indian Ambassador hinted that terrorists once declared not necessarily be taken as terrorists for long. The implied message from the Indian envoy was that the Maoists could now be taken as rebels only. Significant change of attitude indeed. But the meaning lies here.

The King returns on March 30 a day after the Maoists appear here.

Confusion yet persists among the public at large that at whose assurances the Maoists rebels could enter the valley which according to Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai’s own admission remained under the political jurisdiction of the "old regime".

Not less puzzling was the manner Dr. Bhattarai entered the Birendra International Convention Center for his first public appearance together with his four colleagues. Eyewitnesses said that Dr. Bhattarai entered the hall as if he were the country’s Prime Minister. And in effect he is apparently holding the same rank in his revolutionary party-the new regime of the Maoists.

Since their emergence in Kathmandu on March 29, the Maoists leaders have been meeting political personalities and the likes in an apparent bid to take them all in confidence and also convince them all to side with their views at the time when they need their support most.

In the process the Maoists are blowing hot and cold.

For example, when Dr. Bhattarai and his colleagues including Ram Bahadur Thapa alias Badal meet politicians they inevitably hint the other camp that the Maoists would lend their support to their just causes.

On the other hand, when personalities like Dr. Bhattarai , Badal or even Matrika Yadav are allowed a separate but bigger public platform they unfailingly criticize the past performances of the socalled major political parties. They even point blank say that the parliamentary parties must take all the blames for the failure of not only the system but in also having made the 1990 constitution totally defunct.

At yet another level, the Maoists appear not being clear in their own perceptions as to what they mean when they say that they wish a "new system" to come into vogue which neither should look alike the erstwhile Panchayat regime nor should be alike the present one.

In effect, what model they have in their mind has yet to be clarified by the Maoists.

Similarly, they appear bit confused about the role of the monarchy as well.

If on the one hand they conclude that at the moment the nation revolved round three forces namely, the monarchists, the Maoists and the parliamentary forces. In saying so they conclude that the Monarchy continued to be a strong force and will perhaps remain so for quite long time to come. On the other they wish to see greater sacrifices from the Nepali monarchy at time of the negotiations or else warn the monarchy that it would be a thing to be left in the pages of history only. At yet another level, they bluntly say that they have come here to conduct negotiations with the old regime that is with the one which enjoys the unconditional support of the army.

"The talks will be held between the two who possess guns", which implies that their guns will have talks with the guns of the "old regime". In saying so the Maoists totally ignore the presence of the parliamentary parties at time of the talks for according to them this force did not possess guns.

This means that while the Maoists will center their talks for seeking greater concessions from the old regime because it holds power at the moment but would also seek the support of the now redundant parliamentary parties to ensure legitimacy to the outcome of the talks with the establishment.

In sum: they appear close to the monarchy; they exhibit that their number enemy is the Palace; they wish to dump the political parties in the dustbin; they would wish very much their support should any hitch block the talks that they wish to manage in their favor; they love parliamentary parties; they hate them; the Maoists wish to assure the people and the rest that they mean business this round of talks; they concurrently threaten the establishment that should the talks fail would mean greater devastation and the beginning of a new series of war with the old regime; they exhibit their hatred against India; they concurrently hint that they would wish to forge working relations with the southern neighbor; they criticize the US and the UK but would wish to ventilate their fresh views so that the international community understands them better.

Analysing all these facets, what becomes very urgent for the Maoists to clarify as to how they view the monarchy; what model they have in their mind for the people to function as a system; what provisions they wish to incorporate in the new constitution that ensured greater rights for the various neglected tribes and ethnic communities; how they wish to sort out the issue of their own people’s militia; and more so how they view the presence of the major parliamentary parties.

Be that as it may, the laymen had to bite their nails when they could see smart and healthy looking faces of the Maoists leaders on March 29 at the Convention center. It became very difficult for them all to think for a while that these leaders have come from the Rolpa jungles to negotiate peace with the government. In effect they are already here to restore peace.

Finally, there are reasons to be happy for they have come to settle for the restoration of peace in their own motherland.

Analysts remain assured this time that the impending negotiations would bring back normalcy in the beleagured Kingdom.

Policy of entering into "negotiation" is important says French official

Kathmandu: That France, a very powerful member of the developed Western community and a member of the European Union, is also watching the Nepal events closely came to the fore when France preferred to send its special emissary, Chambard Olivier, to Kathmandu to take stock of the prevailing situation in this Himalayan Kingdom specially after the announcement of the ceasefire in between the Maoists rebels and the government.

"As incharge of South Asian affairs at the South Asia desk at the French foreign ministry, I have come here to listyen and meet the Nepali people from diverse sector including the media men, politicians and the civil society members to get first hand information about the obtaining situation in this country", said Chambard Olivier while talking to the chief editor of this newspaper.

During the course of the interaction, the French foreign ministry official disclosed that his country favored the recent positive developments seen in Nepal and that stability and development must follow even if it were in stages.

"We back it firmly", continued Chambard Olivier.

To a query of the Telegraph weekly, the French dignitary opined that his Kathmandu trip had coincided with the possibility of a dialogue in between the Maoists and the government.

"All political parties should be working in order to restore peace and bring the electoral process back so that the country moves in a democratic spirit", expressed Olivier.

"I think initiation of the peace process is a precondition to restore normal political life back and the policy of entering into negotiation is very important", added Chambard Olivier.

To yet another query of the Telegraph weekly, Monsieur Olivier forcefully stated that the political parties who wish to take part in the peace-process must not be marginalised.

"The way out to the present deadlock are ultimately the elections and to have the elections to take place in a peaceful manner, one needed secured environment and to regain security one has to appreciate the peace process and contribute to the successful happening of the now yet to be held dialogue in between the Maoists and the government authorities", explained Chambard Olivier.

He also disclosed that a very high level French delegation might make a trip to Kathmandu either by the end of this year or early next year. He hinted that the visit might take place as a return visit of Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala at the Prime Ministerial level.

To a question on Iraq, Olivier Chambard pledged his country’s support at time of the reconstruction of Iraq under the aegis of the United Nations.

Mr. Chambard Olivier also hinted that if Nepal needed the French assistance in rebuilding its already devastated infrastructures at time of the war with the Maoists rebels, France will be more than willing to show its presence amidst the comity of international donors and friendly countries.

" France is committed for that assistance. You will see France standing in the donor chain should Nepal come forward with such a proposal", concluded Chambard Olivier.

The French official came Nepal last Friday and left Kathmandu for Delhi this Sunday.

Tharu community becomes restive

Kathmandu: The Central office of the Tharu Welfare Assembly, March 30, held a press conference to let the Nepali media men know about the future plans of action charted by the Assembly.

Dwelling on the future plans of action, the Chairman of the Tharu Welfare Assembly, Narendra Kumar Chaudhary, revealed that the assembly of the Tharus would organise their 18th National Level Convention next week in Parsa district.

The Convention will have the participation of the Tharus from well over twenty-four districts of Nepal and some observers of the same community from neighboring India will also attend the Convention.

According to Mr. Chaudhary, the impending Convention is to honor those personalities who have rendered their support in the upliftment of the Tharu community through their personal contributions. The convention is expected to push the agenda of education among the Tharu children and special attention will be given to educate the Tharu girl child.

"As education is the backbone, so we would give special emphasis in imparting good and quality education to the Tharu children", said Mr. Narendra Kumar Chaudhary.

Lamenting on the government’s negative attitude taken vis-à-vis the already freed Kamaiyas, the bonded labors who practically belong to this community, Mr. Chaudhary declared that their Assembly this time in Parsa convention would adopt measures to press Singh Durbar to look into the plight of the freed bonded labors.

"The Kamaiyas after being freed through a government decree now neither possess a shelter not have any means to support their family members", revealed Chaudhary.

The Nepalese Prime Minister is scheduled to inaugurate the Tharu Assembly’s Convention in Parsa district.

The Tharu Welfare Assembly has already celebrated its five decades of existence.

The new Chairman, Mr. Chaudhary who is himself a highly qualified intellectual of the said community appeared determined to uplift the status of the Community.

"We are prepared to wage a sort of agitation come what may if the government continued to ignore the problems currently being faced by the Tharus of Nepal more specifically of those who happen to be from the western region", warned Mr. Chaudhary.

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